1. The Patriots Offensive Tackles will have to do an exceptional job in pass protection.
2. The Patriots offensively need to pick their spots with the running game.
These two go together. If the drives stay on schedule, 2 TEs stay on the field and the threat of the run is always there, Dumervil and Miller won't be able to pin their ears back and fly upfield. Consider:
Dumervil 5'11", 260
Woodyard 6'0", 229
Miller 6'3", 247
Brooking 6'2", 240 (36 yo)
Johnson 6'1", 237
The Broncos are undersized in their front 7 even if they stay in base. Just like last week, the TEs are big enough to handle any of these guys in the run game. Gronk can handle Dumervil, Solder and a pulling Connolly can wipe out Woodyard and Johnson/Brooking at the 2nd level and the rest can just be sealed off. If the Bronco secondary is making a lot of tackles, the Pats are in really good shape. Add to that Dumervil/Miller getting hit by linemen instead of running around them to the QB.
It was mentioned that Denver is a top 10 run defense. That is a fact. However, the Pats will be the best rushing offense they will have faced (or at least comparable with the Texans). The Falcons are mediocre (and predictable) running the ball, the Raiders are terrible and the Steelers only run the ball because they get teased if they don't. Remember, the Bills were an average run defense in yards and average before last week.
3. Defensive Tackle Vince Wilfork needs to win his match-up with center Dan Koppen. I am a fan of the former Patriots center, but there is a reason he was cut by the Patriots, and I think you will see that on Sunday. Wilfork should know his opponent very well, and if he can bring pressure up the middle, it could affect Manning’s comfort level in the pocket.
This is the reverse of the above situation. Wilfork and Love need to create a traffic jam against Koppen (1st start of the year), Kuper (1st appearance of the year) and Beadles (good on the move but underpowered when asked to drive/anchor). Keep the OTs on an island, keep the LBs clean and force McGahee to bounce outside. The TEs aren't blockers so they won't be of much help except chipping and double-teams.
This makes Ninkovich the key player IMO. The Broncos run wide right pretty well. Ninkovich has to seal the edge effectively and turn them back inside into the trash.
4. The Patriots secondary needs to disguise coverages and be very aggressive in this game. You have to at least try to make things a little difficult on Manning, as he tries to figure out what coverage the Patriots are in.
Also, I feel the Patriots need to be aggressive with the Broncos receivers at the line, and try to throw off the timing of the receivers. Also, Manning completes a ton of passes on crossing routes. I feel the Patriots need to flood the middle of the field with defenders, and attempt to take away these routes.
5. Tavon Wilson needs to step up at Safety. Patriots safety Steve Gregory is ruled out of this game with an injury. Wilson will probably be asked to play even more of a role at safety in this game.
Wilson has played a decent amount this season at both safety, and actually at linebacker in certain situations in sub packages. In general, the play of the Patriots safeties has been shaky at best, and Wilson needs to be solid in knowing where he is on the field at all times, and just doing his job. The safeties are the last line of defense generally, and Wilson needs to be a rock at the back.
These 2 points go together as well. Wilson pressed up quite a bit against the Bills and he would seem to be a good counter to the Tamme/Dreessen/Stokley routes in the middle of the field. In an ideal world, this would be the perfect game to roll out Dowling and Dennard. They have the strength to smack around receivers off the line and the short-area quickness to be pests after the jam for a couple of seconds...which is all the time they need. Let Chung play the deep middle to erase anyone going after a wobbling deep post. Leave McCourty alone outside and dare Manning to go deep outside the numbers...knowing that McCourty has been gobbling up underthrows.
