My Expectation this Sunday

[Ring 6]

-I expect the Patriots will run the ball extremely well.
-Depending upon how the Colts start out playing D (there is every reason to believe they will play back to take away the pass) we will either come out running, or will throw to set up the run.
-Make no mistake, when you look at the matchups there is one glaring thing to exploit, SIZE.
-The Colts run defense is best when you run when they know you will. We will get them more concerned about the pass, and then exploit this advantage.
-I see Maroney running for 200 yards.
-I think we will throw less than normal, and our passing game will be used to dictate what the Colts will do on D.
-Defensively, I have 3 clear expectations. One is that BB will scheme this game with the eventual playoff rematch in mind. The key this week is to stop what he knows the Colts want to do, but alter what he is doing so that they will walk into the second game with the same approach. In other words, if I think an all-out blitz is the way to stop the Colt offense AS IT CURRENTLY RUNS, I will blitz enough to control and win this game, but not so much that they alter what they do in the next meeting. Then in the next meeting I do it all day long. (I'm not saying all-out blitz is what would work, just using it as an exapmle..
-Secondly, I expect BB to scheme to have Manning get rid of the ball early. Make them catch it in front of us, and pound them after the catch,
-third, I think BB will put a huge priority on stopping the run game, but will do it from the nickel as a base. I expect the nickel to be a 3-3-5 with an OLB removed and 2 ILBs on the field. (We have used this against Indy before, but I dont think we have against anyone else.) We will be stout inside vs spread alignemnts, and Rodney Harrison will be the force guy (like the 34 olb) on the weak side.
-I think that if the game is not out of hand, we will stop their running game very well. Something like 3.0-3.5 yards per rush. If we get ahead we will backoff to defend the pass, so those numbers will go up.
-One of our WRs will have 8+ catches, but it could be any of the 3, or Faulk as well.
-I think we have a large lead at the half (14+) and the Colts never get closer.
-I truly expect us to win by a large margin. (I want to qualify this by saying I VERY RARELY even against poor teams have that expectation, but I've seen this coming for a month. Their D will not come close to stopping us, and for once in a great while, the Patriots have revenge to motivate them as well).
-I expect we will intercept Manning twice. They will not pick off Brady.
-I expect that if we get ahead, we will go for the knockout punch, and if we get behind we will be remarkably patient.

 

[TommyD4207]

I agree with you on all except for one of your points.

Maroney's not going to sniff 200 yds.

That said, I'm not saying the Patriots as a team won't run for 200 yds., because I actually pretty much expect it; but I think we're starting to see what Maroney really is. A change of pace rotation back. I'm not convinced he can carry the whole load alone.

That's another discussion for another time however, because I don't think that will matter at all. Patriots win. Big.

 

[Brady to Brown]

The Patriots oline can, and should dictate this game. Lets go for long drives and keep Manning and his no huddle Offense on the bench. The no huddle is the only thing the Patriots should be worried about. They did not handle it well the last time.

 

[FrontSeven]

-I see Maroney running for 200 yards.

You are a minority of one on this planet.

 

[Ring 6]

You are a minority of one on this planet.

Why?
Maroney is running for close to 5 yards a carry. I think he will get the ball a season high number of times, and I expect him to break of 3-4 20+ runs.
Maroney is exactly the type of back that runs best against the Colts D. I can easily see 25 rushes for 200 yards. Give him 100+ on 5 of them, and 100 on the other 20.

 

[Ring 6]

The Patriots oline can, and should dictate this game. Lets go for long drives and keep Manning and his no huddle Offense on the bench. The no huddle is the only thing the Patriots should be worried about. They did not handle it well the last time.

I think we will, but I also think we will call the game based on what they play on D. If they gameplan to not allow us to go on long time consuming drives, there will be plenty of holes in the secondary for more of our 3-5 play TD drives.
I'm guessing we run more than normal this week only because I expect the Colts to come out expecting us to throw.

 

[BradyManny]

I agree with pretty much everything AJ said.

I do think Maroney is going to pile up the yardage (maybe not 200, but I can see him repeating his Cincinnati game from last year), it all depends on what the Colts give us. We can attack so many ways that we'll let them pick what to take away and just beat them down with what they let us have. Since that very well may mean leaving Sanders back, then we'll run all over them.

 

[fair catch fryar]

I agree with you on all except for one of your points.

Maroney's not going to sniff 200 yds.

That said, I'm not saying the Patriots as a team won't run for 200 yds., because I actually pretty much expect it; but I think we're starting to see what Maroney really is. A change of pace rotation back. I'm not convinced he can carry the whole load alone.

That's another discussion for another time however, because I don't think that will matter at all. Patriots win. Big.

Ditto> I also don't see us blitzing like crazy because if there is one thing Manning can do is exploit that throw 10 -15 yard gains. Not to mention I'm still not sold on our secondary being able to stop the Colts receivers. One thing I'm hearing everyone saying is that the Pats need to control the clock. In very humble opinion, I believe they'll come out blazing and try to score often and fast. It could possibly throw the Colts out of their game-plan and allow our defense to force some turnovers and jump out to a large lead, just like in the AFC title game. Except our offense is actually better this year and if the Colts try to turn this game into a shoot-out in the 2nd half we will most certainly smoke 'em!

 

[N.Eman]

The Pats will win this game no sweat. I am sure if we do, have any trouble with Addai we'll adjust to him then manning will start to pass. we will pick him off, BB will disguise the Blitz cause thats what the Colts think BB loves to do. Brady will have a hell of a day like the Cowboys game. I have so much confidence and they'll have the AFC lost tape running in their mind. Which to me is the perfect fuel to not repeat mistakes which is their mindset this year.

 

[ATippett56]

-third, I think BB will put a huge priority on stopping the run game, but will do it from the nickel as a base. I expect the nickel to be a 3-3-5 with an OLB removed and 2 ILBs on the field. (We have used this against Indy before, but I dont think we have against anyone else.) We will be stout inside vs spread alignemnts, and Rodney Harrison will be the force guy (like the 34 olb) on the weak side.

I completely disagree on the defensive alignment. The Patriots will stay in the base 3-4 defense with an emphasis to stop the run. With Dallas Clark flexed out, a Patriots outside linebacker will be assigned to cover him (either Vrabel or Colvin) with the assistance of the Patriots strong safety (either Harrison or Sanders). When Dallas Clark is flexed, the Patriots will essentially employ bracket coverage. The key is Asante Samuel in one-on-one coverage with Marvin Harrison all day.

 

[Ring 6]

Ditto> I also don't see us blitzing like crazy because if there is one thing Manning can do is exploit that throw 10 -15 yard gains. Not to mention I'm still not sold on our secondary being able to stop the Colts receivers. One thing I'm hearing everyone saying is that the Pats need to control the clock. In very humble opinion, I believe they'll come out blazing and try to score often and fast. It could possibly throw the Colts out of their game-plan and allow our defense to force some turnovers and jump out to a large lead, just like in the AFC title game. Except our offense is actually better this year and if the Colts try to turn this game into a shoot-out in the 2nd half we will most certainly smoke 'em!

I think a fast paced game favors us as well.
We have become a better quick strike team than the Colts.
In fact, we have moved more in that direction, and I see the Colts moving away from that direction. The Colts have changed from an aggressive offense to one that takes what is there. We will always take whats there, but we have become much more aggressive in wanting to get the big play.

 

[Ring 6]

I completely disagree on the defensive alignment. The Patriots will stay in the base 3-4 defense with an emphasis to stop the run. With Dallas Clark flexed out, a Patriots outside linebacker will be assigned to cover him (either Vrabel or Colvin) with the assistance of the Patriots strong safety (either Harrison or Sanders). When Dallas Clark is flexed, the Patriots will essentially employ bracket coverage. The key is Asante Samuel in one-on-one coverage with Marvin Harrison all day.

We'll see, but I expect Harrison, in essence, to be the weakside OLB, playing from the nickel. Gay or Wilson will cover the slot if we play man coverage.
We have used this alignement against the Colts often. It has worked well vs the run, with the Colts tending to run weakside, and the weakside ILB and nickleback (in this case Harrison) stopping the play.
It has worked so I expect to see more of it.

 

[miDeuce]

I think the key thing for me is just to see how much pressure they bring and how much of it gets to Brady. I feel like our O-Line is at the top of their game right now and they will really look forward to facing Freeney and pals. Maroney could hit 150, 200 might be pushing it but I'd love to see it happen. I'd love to see another game like last year against Cinci where he looks dominating. I'm sure the match up against his buddy Addai will motivate him. It's already wednesday. Watson's back. It's not's even gonna be close.

 

[ATippett56]

The Colts have changed from an aggressive offense to one that takes what is there.

The main reason, that is the case, is the loss of Tarik Glenn at left tackle.

 

[Brady to Brown]

I think we will, but I also think we will call the game based on what they play on D. If they gameplan to not allow us to go on long time consuming drives, there will be plenty of holes in the secondary for more of our 3-5 play TD drives.
I'm guessing we run more than normal this week only because I expect the Colts to come out expecting us to throw.

The Colts have a choice. They can defense the pass or the run, NOT BOTH.

I believe they will defense the run and make Brady show them he can move the chains with his WR's. Once Brady makes a couple of passes Sanders must respect the WR's and back off. Then its Maroney, Faulk and 6 min TD drives.

 

[ATippett56]

We'll see, but I expect Harrison, in essence, to be the weakside OLB, playing from the nickel. Gay or Wilson will cover the slot if we play man coverage.
We have used this alignement against the Colts often. It has worked well vs the run, with the Colts tending to run weakside, and the weakside ILB and nickleback (in this case Harrison) stopping the play.
It has worked so I expect to see more of it.

I respectfully disagree since the Colts have become more a two tight end offense with the loss of Brandon Stokley. It imperative the Patriots defense stops the run with the front seven and abuses Colts rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh in pass situations.

 

[fair catch fryar]

I think a fast paced game favors us as well.
We have become a better quick strike team than the Colts.
In fact, we have moved more in that direction, and I see the Colts moving away from that direction. The Colts have changed from an aggressive offense to one that takes what is there. We will always take whats there, but we have become much more aggressive in wanting to get the big play.

Either way, I don't see how we are at a disadvantage in any aspect of offensive play. Addai is a solid back and proves it each week, but this is an area where I believe the Pats are very under-estimated IMO. Especially when Morris gets back. So either way, the Pats will control the tempo of this game by sheer will. Whether it's launching TD's to Moss, dinking and dunking to Welker, Maroney, and Stallworth, or running the ball using a mixture of backs the Pats will ultimately prove to the rest of the league that are not ******* around!

 

[Metaphors]

Agree with a lot of what you said except...

-I see Maroney running for 200 yards.

Don't think so. Too much speed in the Colts D to allow a huge run and we aren't that great run blocking into the 2nd level (we should be better than we are). Could see Maroney coming close to 200 total yards depending on how the game plays out.

-Secondly, I expect BB to scheme to have Manning get rid of the ball early. Make them catch it in front of us, and pound them after the catch,

You can't pound the Colts receivers after the catch. They run for the sidelines or drop to the ground almost immediately. The only YAC they get is when they get behind the secondary. Actually the TEs do try to get some extra yards, but Utech's ball-handling skills are seriously weak so I would expect only Clark to be taking any contact on Sunday.

I expect the Pats to press up and dare Manning to throw deep. Show tight man at the snap but fall back into a variety of coverage schemes...but DON'T let them run 7-8 yard out/comeback patterns or 6-7 yard dump passes all day. The ball gets out quick, Peyton gets comfortable, the Pats D stays on the field, dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria!

-I think we have a large lead at the half (14+) and the Colts never get closer.

I don't think it will be that large a margin at half for either team. I see both teams having success in the first half on offense. I think any "pulling away" will be done with some halftime adjustments.

-I truly expect us to win by a large margin. (I want to qualify this by saying I VERY RARELY even against poor teams have that expectation, but I've seen this coming for a month. Their D will not come close to stopping us, and for once in a great while, the Patriots have revenge to motivate them as well).

Hard to argue that given what the Pats are doing this year. Just a gut feeling that this will be a close one. The Colts have enough athletes to not let the game get away from them unless the Pats gameplan just overwhelms them.

-I expect we will intercept Manning twice. They will not pick off Brady.

Goes back to my earlier comment. If the Pats play behind the receivers, Manning likely won't throw an interception. If the Pats play more aggressive, show zone and jump into man, show man and drop into zone, look to jump some of those short out patterns, etc. then I can can see a couple of picks. I expect Brady to be careful with the ball and only see picks on tipped balls.

Now let me add one straight out of left field...

I expect Meriweather to get some meaningful minutes in this game. The Colts have no tape on this guy and he can potentially be used in a variety of ways to cross up Manning's reads. If I had to bet my house, I obviously would bet Meriweather would continue to be just a ST guy...but stranger things have happened (Eric Alexander anyone?)

 

[patsox23]

With Dallas Clark flexed out, a Patriots outside linebacker will be assigned to cover him (either Vrabel or Colvin) with the assistance of the Patriots strong safety (either Harrison or Sanders). When Dallas Clark is flexed, the Patriots will essentially employ bracket coverage. The key is Asante Samuel in one-on-one coverage with Marvin Harrison all day.

Not sure I agree on either of these points. If we have ANY LB (especially those two) covering Dallas Clark, he will go for 150+ and 2 TDs. The safety should be the primary guy blanketing Clark (Harrison/Sanders would be my choices, as well).

It's possible Asante WILL cover Marvin Harrison, but given that he comes into the game banged up - and even if he's not too hobbled, it's arguable he's no longer the #1 WR in Indy, anyway - Samuel should be stuck to Reggie Wayne, with Hobbs getting (loads of VITALLY NECESSARY) help on Harrison from Gay/safety not on Dallas Clark.

 

[Michael]

-I think we have a large lead at the half (14+) and the Colts never get closer.
-I truly expect us to win by a large margin.

One thing I've noticed with the Colts is they seem to run a pretty vanilla game in the first half and then march down the field seemingly at will in the second. I think they purposely play the first not allowing the opponent to see what they really have planned and therefore not able to make the half time adjustments. Barring a melt down, alaAFCC 2006, I agree the PAts win this big and Manning is picked at least twice. Say hello to Rodney Harrison Peyton.