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Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by rookBoston, Apr 26, 2007.

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  1. rookBoston

    rookBoston Rookie

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    I cant do justice to the full draft class, the way BOR did in his post. But here's one man's opinion on value for the Pats:

    Grouping #1 - Elite
    could never be drafted by the Patriots under any circumstance
    WR Calvin Johnson, magical
    RB Adrian Peterson
    OT Joe Thomas, although not a need

    Grouping #2 - Out of Reach
    will be gone by #13 overall... out of reach

    DT/NT Alan Branch, fits our scheme as a NT, which is rare enough
    DE/DT Amobi Okoye, the kind of guy that BB can turn into a star
    LB Patrick Willis, I've been hot and cold about Willis, but I cant explain why I'd hesitate. Anyway, he's out of reach.

    Note: Jamaal Anderson isn't on my board-- dont see him as a fit in our scheme with 1st round value

    Grouping #3 - Trade up
    Worth trading to #19 (=#24 + #91), if they fall that far

    SS Laron Landry, overhyped, but worth it at this point
    DE Adam Carricker, love this kid and he truly fits the scheme

    Grouping #4 - Value at #24
    solid starter

    SS Michael Griffin, my favorite DB in the draft hands down, honors student, a star on both D and ST, solid against the run
    LB David Harris, great fit for the scheme
    CB Leon Hall, solid value at #24
    CB Aaron Ross, reminds me of Hobbs but stronger
    RB Brian Leonard, I believe in this kid like few others in this draft. Great size, hands, body control
    WR Anthony Gonzalez, has all the success factors required in a Belichick receiver
    LB Jon Beason, versatility is key, reads a bit like Jonathan Vilma

    Grouping #5 - Value at #28
    a cut below Grouping #4, but still expect these guys to be quality starters for us by Year 2

    CB Darrell Revis, doesn't look as quick as Hall or Ross
    TE Greg Olsen, yeah, I know
    S Eric Weddle, way underrated two way player... who else has 18 INTs?
    LB Paul Posluszny, I dont buy all the negative hype; I heard the same unattributable schlock about Larry Johnson
    OC Ryan Kalil, although not a need
    OT Joe Staley, although not a need
    OLB Lamarr Woodley, should be getting more love as a first rounder
    OLB Anthony Spencer, athleticism and size

    Grouping #6 - Interesting, but only in a trade down
    slightly risky, but have starting potential. Worth a shot in the early 2nd.

    OLB Tim Crowder, in the McGinest mold
    LB Brandon Siler, size, speed, attitude, productivity... very underappreciated
    LB/S Justin Durant, I think BB could play him at SS as a rookie... shades of Don Davis
    LB Stewart Bradley, size matters... maybe has some Ted Johnson in him
    OL Arron Sears, versatility counts extra... fitness is my concern
    FS Brandon Meriweather, wont last long enough for me to think of him as value
    WR Sidney Rice, I dunno... something about him I like. So smooth, so natural.


    So, of course, expect BB/SP to draft two guys not on my board. Only one thing I'll bet the farm on: they wont take Reggie Nelson.
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2007
  2. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    Joe Thomas: I'm divided on him. When I watched him in games, it was sometimes ridiculous how he dominated. In fact, it sometimes looked like he was playing with small children. Still, he has short arms and small hands for an NFL LT. He's not a T-Rex like Gallery was, but in the same family. It's not a good combination. So he may have to start out at RT. The problem is he's not a great run blocker, so RT isn't his ideal gig either. If he can be Jordan Gross, a quality RT, that would be fine. So I'm not sure I would put him in the elite category...

    J.Dukes on NFLnetwork opined that Landry doesn't have the range to play weak side safety. I think Landry has a high floor, and that is his attraction. At worst he will be a multi-year starter, and may make some probowls (maybe due to name recognition after all his over the top press in this draft). So I agree with you there.

    Carriker probably won't be an impact 4-3 DE in the NFL due to speed issues. He might become a quality 4-3 end like Darrion Scott on the strong side for the Vikings. His best move is to DT. He is without question the most athletic DT in this draft. I count him on the same athletic level at DT as Bunkley and Castillo. But moving from 4-3 DE to 3-4 DE is a position change. It is harder to accomplish than moving from 4-3 DT to 3-4 DE, which I don't consider a true position change. Players who change positions usually need time to develop. So I think there is a little more risk with Carriker than others seem to, though his ceiling is higher than any other DT in this draft.

    I agree with your hesitation about Willis. Willis' athleticism is overrated. The Short Shuttle, Bench press and 3-cone are significant indicators of success for NFL Lbers, and Willis was average to below average in all three. His great straight line speed and explosive leg strength covered up the other flaws, but they are the same ones you see when watching him play. Great straight line speed, big hitter, average quickness/change of direction. IMO the best thing about Willis is his production. Because of the combination of athleticism and production I see Willis as a notch above Harris, but not significantly. Still, he is the safest big school LBer prospect in the draft.

    I'm higher on Revis than you are. in fact, if there's one prospect I've "fallen in love with" as I've gone further into the draft it is Revis. I think he can be a pro bowl CB and is being underrated in this draft. If he falls within reach so that the Pats could trade up without costing the #28 pick, I would do it to get him, then use #28 to trade back and recoup extra picks.

    I'm glad you listed Durant. Durant and Q. Black can be better than their big school counterparts.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2007
  3. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Why is that ? The intelligence thing ?
  4. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    How is Ross a stronger version of Hobbs?

    They have different styles and Hobbs was a total gym rat coming out of college. Let's compare their agility test:
    Ellis hobbs: 380lbs Bench, 505lbs squat, 42in vert(combine), 11'1" broad jump (Pro Day), 6.75 3 cone(Pro Day). At his Pro Day he ran the 40 yard dash in 4.36 and 4.39

    Aaron Ross: 275lbs bench, 425lbs squat, 272 power clean, 34in vert, 9'10" broad jump, and a 6.67 3 cone. At the combine he ran a 4.54 - 40
  5. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

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    I agree.

    Flawed, but has enough skills to be considered as a BPA

    A very difficult slot projection. Was a second-rounder, then a #28 option, now may not make it to #28. IMO #24 is too early.

    Not my favorite CB -- but he does represent value.

    Does he gamble too much? Can he become more disciplined?

    At #24? Way too early -- but I like the player.


    A legitimate prospect -- just not at #24.

    I'm not sold on him at all.

    Of all of your prospects, your placement of Revis is the most shocking. Not only is he the only player I'd trade up for, but he's been consistently ranked as one of the top 3 CBs, and of late has moved into the #1 slot. IMO he's a top 15 player and has a slim-to-none chance of sliding to our first pick.

    Can't consider a one-dimensionable TE in this draft -- we have enough TEs who can catch. What we do need is another TE who's strength is blocking, and we can find one after round one.

    A very smart player who's probably better suited for FS rather than SS or CB. He's been consistently ranked in round two, and would be considered a reach by most if we selected him at #28. BB may feel differently.

    No one player has better intangibles than this guy. Can he play inside for the Pats, or is he better suited as an OLB for another scheme? One of my top 5 Pats prospects based on those intangibles.

    Represents excellent value at a non-need position. Don't be surprised if he goes much earlier.

    Serious #28 options.

    A player I really like -- but is rarely mentioned.

    I've cooled on him.

    There are several LBs who could make the conversion. And those are THE most difficult to project.

    Clearly, a LB prospect who has zero size issues. Rated in the 61-70 range, which means he may not make it to our 3rd round pick. And if he's one of BB's targets, the only way to get him is to draft him a round early (can't), or trade up for him. Think about it.

    Appreciate your efforts.
  6. rookBoston

    rookBoston Rookie

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    Interesting that much of the commentary on my early slotting of guys like Leonard, Gonzalez, and Harris-- guys who are broadly considered 2nd rounders on the web-- is met with skepticism. Not saying that you're wrong and I'm right, but I intentionally stacked my board based on Pats needs and valuation, not the national view.

    I think BB expects #24 to be a starter for him, and that's his single measure of value, without consideration of whether other teams will think of that player as a starter in their system. So, if teams like San Diego would have no use for Brian Leonard, and they dont, that really has no bearing on his valuation this board. Most teams will prefer Ginn's speed and breakaway threat to Gonzalez's technical acumen and field smarts.

    The Pats have a different draft perspective. And the draft gurus on NFLDraftCountdown, Kiper, and the other major draft blogs are writing for a national audience, and are looking for lowest common denominator skills, not the type of specialists who will flourish in Foxboro.

    I intentionally tried to break from the consensus top-100 ordering that we're all very familiar with by now, and tried to re-stack the board the way I imagine BB/SP have done.

    Some interesting cases that have been raised:

    Revis - I was higher on Revis previously, but then I compared his film clips on SI.com with those of Hall and Ross, and I came away with the following impressions:
    1) he's chunky more than he is tall
    2) his entire highlight film has him making INTs out of a zone. I didn't see him once in man coverage. That makes me wonder more about the scheme he was in, than his individual skills. Comparing his film with Hall and Ross, he is playing more of a FS role than bump and run, shutdown corner type physical play.

    look for yourself: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/specials/draft/2007/video/

    - Nelson's film doesn't support the level of buzz. He's a 2-yr Juco player with track speed. But I dont see him taking down TEs in the open field, or wrapping up runners in the secondary. I'm suspicious that he's a creation of the Combine. I see him chasing around the field. Frankly, he seems like a slightly smaller version of Tebucky Jones, running to places where he isn't supposed to be, and then using his speed to recover. If you cant explain the entire defensive scheme, where every player is on the field and why, and where you're supposed to be and why... you're going to struggle for the Pats. This skill is specifically what makes Griffin so appealing to me.

    - One self-criticism of my board, is that I think I've probably stressed LB unfairly. Siler, Spencer and Bradley, in particular, may not be as worthy of their slots as players at other positions in those same slots. Hard to know, but I may be reaching a bit, in my urgency to get young LB talent onto the roster.

    - Ross looks explosive. I compared him to Hobbs in my OP, and maybe that's unfair. But he's physical and he puts his head into a guy to take him down.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2007
  7. Spirit of '76

    Spirit of '76 Rookie

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    Good analysis, but I would like to add a few names over-looked.

    CB Chris Houston of Arkansas

    DE Jarvis Moss of Florida

    Both good players at #28.

    However, I think the Pats can trade down with the #28 pick and get LB David Martin between pick #40 & #50.
    Taking him #24 when his is not on any 1st round mock draft list is over-paying and not a 'value' pick.

    What if GB and Tenn pass on RB Marshawn Lynch of Cal?
    If Maroney had two injuries last season, then this could be the #24 pick. I can't see the Pats taking a chance on Brian Leonard in the 1st round.
  8. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

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    There is no other way to stack a Pats board. The national board is not to be completely ignored, but it's common knowledge that BB doesn't adhere to national rankings.

    Leonard -- unaware of his consensus ranking (don't really care), but Gosselin has him at #81. Even though I respect his accuracy more than anyone, I believe that's too low for Leonard. IMO, if BB wants him, he's a #28 option like some others. Just believe BB has other #24 options.

    Want a playmaker -- draft Ginn. Want a smart, technically sound WR with high character -- draft Gonzalez. It's that simple.

    Once again -- don't we all know this?

    And I respect this, because I do the same.

    Most prospects on my board I've seen from taping of games, very few are from highlight clips. We have a difference of opinion on our observations of Revis. I won't change my opinion, so we'll leave it at that.
  9. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    The question of team valuations vs. perceived national rankings always intrigues me. Obviously, you have your own notion of value that includes fit and need as well as talent. But just as obviously, you have to try to model the consensus on a player in order to stack your board strategically. ("If I trade down 10 spots, will this guy still be there?" "How long can I wait and still nab a starting-caliber safety?" Etc.)

    Presumably the Patriots compile their own team-needs lists with notes on tendencies, system fits, etc. to produce a strategic plan. I'd dearly love to see how that's all put together.
  10. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

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    And let us not forget that not only do the Pats have their own value board, but have two other separate boards. One is a team needs board, and the other is a mock draft board. Yes, in order to manage our draft, it's crucial to anticipate other teams needs, moves, etc. (as been we can).

    Hypothetically, if Team A needs a CB and selects one in the first, chances are they won't repeat the position in round two etc. But if they didn't select a CB YET, then the Pats will be expecting them to do so. This is how (and why) we move up or down to select a specific player.
  11. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It all begs to be programmed up as an expert system. Think teams do that these days? Then you could run dozens of simulations to determine whether, e.g., you'd have a better chance taking one of your LB targets in the 1st and trading down hoping to land one of your DBs in the 2nd, or vice versa.
  12. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You assume he played what I've seen some call a "rush" DE, Adams and Anderson are two examples. According to my reading and viewing, Nebraska DL play what is being called a read & react defense, similar to the Patriots' gap control style. Carriker was not asked to pin his ears back and charge the QB, this led to his "surprising" performance in the Senior Bowl when he was turned loose by Monte Kiffin of Tampa-2 fame. From his DE slot, he engaged blockers, read the blocks and the backfield, then shed the blockers to make tackles. It helps explain my own Carriker bias in this draft, I firmly believe he is the best "fit" for the Patriots' system, regardless of need, due to his experience in Nebraska's reported scheme.
  13. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    Carriker played in a read and react defense as the base end in a 4-3 scheme. I don't believe the Nebraska Base end lines up in the 5 technique and minds the A and B gaps. If not, this is a major adjustment for a college 4-3 DE. Also, if 3-4 teams want to take advantage of his quickness and pass rush ability they may want him to play the weak side, which is another adjustment. I believe Carriker can do it, if brought along slowly. If he is thrown into it and expected to flourish immediately by some goofy team in the teens, with the pressure of a high pick, they are inviting risk, increasing the chance of injury during the adjustment period. He would impact most quickly as a strong side 4-3 DE, because he is used to it, but will never be a star there. He can be a star as a 3-4 DE. but I don;t think it will be immediate and there could be some early struggles. But I agree with you, CArriker has the most upside of any DT prospect on this draft and the perfect team for him would be the Pats, who know how to develop 3-4 ends. If they draft Carriker, I would resign Warren and trade Seymour next offseason.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2007
  14. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    Good Job.
    DW Toys
  15. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Great job! Of course, that means that it agrees closely with my views, except for the 2nd rounders. I would switch the positions of Pos and Leonard, but I could be convinced that you are correct.

    And now for the hard part, your value list for #91.
  16. rookBoston

    rookBoston Rookie

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    Would be nice, but I'm unable to do it justice. Ever since the Welker trade, I haven't been researching past the mid-40s.
  17. Spirit of '76

    Spirit of '76 Rookie

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    Question..........What's the highest the Pats could go if they were to pkg #24 & #28??
  18. Brady to Brown

    Brady to Brown Rookie

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    Who knows, Belichick is saying that trading up this year is a deal.
  19. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The book says 8.

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