My Blueprint for the Defense

[mayoclinic]

Ellis to the Giants. One of the bigger disappointments of FA so far for me.. seemed like a great fit..

@AdamSchefter: Giants are signing Kenrick Ellis to a one-year deal today.

Yeah, I was disappointed to read this. I thought he would be a great low-cost signing.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm mulling Dennard and a 2nd this year for Jason McCourty

I don't want that. I don't want to give up a 2nd, J McCourty's more of a zone CB, and his cap hit is fairly sizable.

 

[mayoclinic]

At this point I think it's a given that the Pats rebuild the CB position through the draft. They have a ton of depth (Malcolm Butler, Kyle Arrington, Logan Ryan, Alfonzo Dennard, Brad Fletcher, Bobby McClain and Chimde Chekwa) but they lack a clear 1 and 2 CB. I'm also convinced that playing an aggressive press-man scheme is still the way to go. The Pats just need to get the horses. They may play more zone in 2015, but it's not the long-term solution.

My top 2 press-man CBs in this draft are Marcus Peters and Eric Rowe. Both physical CBs with excellent press-man skills. As Brian Krosky at BuffaloBillsDraft notes about Rowe:

Because of his size, Rowe employs a physical style of play and sets a tone every time the ball is snapped. He excels in press coverage, and keeps contact prevalent within the first five yards of his opponent’s route. Rowe jams his opposing receiver immediately, manipulates him to change how he will run the route and ultimately controls the play from the beginning.

With the skills that Rowe possesses, he can win on both short and long routes because he can dominate from the snap.

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2015/01/2015-nfl-draft-prospect-to-watch-eric-rowe-cb-utah/

That skill set fits perfectly with Devin McCourty at single high FS, with a star/stud hybrid S like Pat Chung, and with our front 6/7. It fits with Matt Bowen's vision of "dictating the flow":

Every team in the NFL wants to play physical man coverage. Jam the receivers, impact the release and funnel the routes inside. Go ahead and attack the wideouts at the snap, slide the feet and then drive to the hip to squeeze these guys to your help in the middle of the field.

That’s how you dictate the flow of the game from a defensive perspective.

And it fits with Greg Cossell's vision of a defense to combat the modern passing game:

Gus Bradley, the Seahawks defensive coordinator the last four seasons before becoming the Jacksonville Jaguars' head coach in January, summed it up best. He once said, “Whatever scheme you play, you’ve got to create disruption at the perimeter.” With Sherman and Browner, the Seahawks do that more consistently and better than any team in the NFL. Disruption outside with taller, more aggressive corners; pass rush flexibility and adaptability with athletic and versatile hybrids who can align all over.

That’s the template for defensive success in a passing league.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...-set-tone-nfl-free-agency-181559870--nfl.html

 

[manxman2601]

I don't agree that we don't have a number 2. Dennard was our #2 before Browner and Butler has shown that he could be a consideration there as well.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't agree that we don't have a number 2. Dennard was our #2 before Browner and Butler has shown that he could be a consideration there as well.

It's entirely possible, but last year was a major step back, so I'm not counting on it. It's also possible that Malcolm Butler could develop into a solid #2, but right now I'm not counting on that, either.

 

[unoriginal]

On this roster, regardless of who the draft picks are, the Pats will probably go right/left CBs, not #1/#2. That's what they did in 2010 with Butler/Arrington and McCourty on the outside.

 

[manxman2601]

On this roster, regardless of who the draft picks are, the Pats will probably go right/left CBs, not #1/#2. That's what they did in 2010 with Butler/Arrington and McCourty on the outside.

I think they'll still try to find the best match-ups e.g. Arrington on Hilton. but I can see your point too.

 

[mayoclinic]

On this roster, regardless of who the draft picks are, the Pats will probably go right/left CBs, not #1/#2. That's what they did in 2010 with Butler/Arrington and McCourty on the outside.

A lot will be dictated by what the personnel can do, but ideally I see them liking to mix things up and move guys around depending on the matchups and the scheme. BB likes chess pieces that he can move around.

Eric Rowe, for example, has press-man cover skills but has also played FS. I could see situations where BB might move McCourty to CB (as he did at times last year) and possibly use Rowe as a safety. BB likes to mix things up and disguise coverages, so I think that - in the long term at least - just thinking in terms of "left" and "right" is too simplistic. In the short term, he'll limit things based on the capabilities of his personnel, so you may well be right.

 

[unoriginal]

I think they'll still try to find the best match-ups e.g. Arrington on Hilton. but I can see your point too.

I certainly hope they have Arrington play the star this year and not in the shell.

A lot will be dictated by what the personnel can do, but ideally I see them liking to mix things up and move guys around depending on the matchups and the scheme.

I think they do this to protect the younger players, who they almost certainly will be relying on this year. Especially if they will be using more zone to mix it up, as its already hard enough acclimating young CBs to the NFL without having them do everything everywhere on the field.

Add to that the lack of a #1 to kick the #2 around and that's what I see happening. This is the way New England has preferred to do it in the past without a Ty Law or Darrelle Revis drawing the top matchup each week.

 

[mayoclinic]

Doug Kyed looks at the current CB group:

http://nesn.com/2015/03/patriots-2015-secondary-isnt-panic-worthy-despite-rag-tag-group/

No mention of Alfonzo Dennard, the forgotten man.

 

[manxman2601]

Whilst I think they'll end up mixing up their coverages, I've become intrigued by them playing some form of aggressive tampa-2 or cover-3. Why?

1. Less responsibility on the CBs to hold up in man-coverage. And the tampa-2 in particular suits strong CBs that support the run. Someone like Alfonzo Dennard is perfect for that role, as is Logan Ryan.

2. Less need to draft a CB high. Its great if you can pick up a Kyle Fuller but you don't really need the type of corner you can only get by drafting them in the first. Steven Nelson, Craig Mager and Donald Celiscar would all be excellent tampa-2 defenders.

3. One way to make up for a weakened secondary would be to improve the DL. We've already done that by adding Sheard but it can also be done by going 1-gap on the interior DL. I'm fascinated by the interest in the likes of Grady Jarrett and Nunez-Roches. One of them alongside Easley on selected downs certainly provides more pressure on the QB to get the ball out early. Harrison is another perfect for a 1-gap role alongside Easley.

4. Devin McCourty could play CB in this system and would be ideal. The Pats have shown interest in Damarious Randall and BB went to Louisville's pro day. Now I've not had any interest in Gerod Holliman before now but in a Tampa-2 where he's in a better position to get his hands on the ball? Now that's more interesting.*

5.Jamie Collins could play the Brian Urlacher role in a Tampa-2 dropping deep into the middle 3rd. Alternatively, that's a pretty good role for Shaq Thompson.

Normally the Tampa-2 is antithetical to what BB wants from a defense and I doubt it happens but it would be a good way to cover up the potential deficiencies in the secondary and I'm sure BB/Patricia could design a Tampa-2 with wrinkles to make it harder to gameplan against.

* Arguing against myself here but Gerod Holliman had a pretty horrible pro-day:

Gerod Holliman (6-foot, 216 pounds), a safety who led the nation in interceptions, turned in 40 times of 4.65 and 4.68 seconds. He had a 27-inch vertical and a 9-1 broad jump. He ran a 4.45 short shuttle and a 7.08 3-cone drill. Holliman has good ball skills, but he lacks the competitiveness that's needed to play safety in the NFL.

I wonder just how draftable he is with those numbers...but that also means in the limited role of a t-2, he'd have some decent value on day 3.

It's just something I've been thinking about, it almost certainly doesn't happen.

 

[mayoclinic]

Manx and Unoriginal, you may be entirely correct for 2015. BB is a pragmatist, and he'd dial the complexity up or down depending on what he think the personnel can do. Clearly, the personnel on the back end won't be able to do as much as the 2014 personnel could do. In the long term, however - and in terms of the kind of players to target - I still think the goal is to get back to doing the kinds of things that we did in 2014 (or in 2001, 2003, and 2004 for that matter), and that requires getting some more physical CBs who can play press-man - to exclusively, but predominantly - at a high level.

Will they play some Cover-2 and more Cover-3 in 2015? Almost certainly. BB practically sneared at Seattle's Cover-3 (with some banged up personnel, admittedly) down the stretch in the SB, and TB picked it apart in the 4th quarter. But we don't play many guys this year - at least in the regular season - with that kind of ability to pick apart a coverage scheme.

I see this year as a year to adapt while rebuilding the back end to do what we did in 2014, at much lower cost, and built for a longer run.

 

[mayoclinic]

From Reiss' chat today, FWIW:

Laurie (Moncton, New Brunswick): Mike, the corner I'm surprised hasn't had any discussions with the Patriots is Peanut Tillman. He is a solid player, albeit bit by the injury bug the last 2 years. He has stated he wants to be on a contender, and I believe both sides would probably agree on a low risk, incentive laden contract. Solid locker room guy - why hasn't his name come up?

Mike (11:10 AM): Might be a scheme thing, Laurie. I've viewed Tillman as more of a cover-2 type corner, not really someone you play in man. Not sure the Patriots are ready to concede in that area just yet.

Peggy (Melrose): Mike, are we hearing conflicting messages from you? Saying that Tillman is a poor fit because he doesn't play man, but didn't we hear that Browner was let go because scheme was changing? Does letting Browner go look like a mistake to you then? He was on a below market contract here (less than what he got on the open market).

Mike (11:21 AM): Peggy, what I'm saying is that the scheme is fluid right now and the thinking is that they don't want to lock themselves into scheme specific players.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4779521/weekly-patriots-chat-recap-207

 

[manxman2601]

Manx and Unoriginal, you may be entirely correct for 2015. BB is a pragmatist, and he'd dial the complexity up or down depending on what he think the personnel can do. Clearly, the personnel on the back end won't be able to do as much as the 2014 personnel could do. In the long term, however - and in terms of the kind of players to target - I still think the goal is to get back to doing the kinds of things that we did in 2014 (or in 2001, 2003, and 2004 for that matter), and that requires getting some more physical CBs who can play press-man - to exclusively, but predominantly - at a high level.

Will they play some Cover-2 and more Cover-3 in 2015? Almost certainly. BB practically sneared at Seattle's Cover-3 (with some banged up personnel, admittedly) down the stretch in the SB, and TB picked it apart in the 4th quarter. But we don't play many guys this year - at least in the regular season - with that kind of ability to pick apart a coverage scheme.

I see this year as a year to adapt while rebuilding the back end to do what we did in 2014, at much lower cost, and built for a longer run.

I don't disagree, I think cover-1 man is the way to go long-term but we don't really have that skill-set for 2015. The thing is, BB can switch scheme pretty easily so there'd be no difficulty switching to a cover-3 in '15 to allow for the limitations of the CBs and then when they get better, switch back. As for the tampa-2 I suggested, a lot of that can be accomplished with fairly low picks because the priorities in that scheme are the front 4 and the MLB, all of which we have in place aside from maybe one DT.

In terms of drafting tampa-2, you could draft a Byron Jones or whomever to be your #1 press corner anyway, move McCourty to CB if the draftee isn't ready to go day one and play Dennard/Butler/Ryan as #CB2. Draft a DT like Hardison/Jarrett/RNR to play alongside Easley and then either draft Damarious Randall to play next to Harmon or wait for day 3 and if Holliman is there, draft him for his takeaway upside. Ben Heeney in that MLB role is another mid-late draftee that fits. It's only Damarious Randall and Holliman that might be considered superfluous in a non tampa-2 scheme although I'd disagree on Randall - his athleticism and skill set make him worth considering as a day 2 prospect anyway. It can be done without sacrificing any long-term plans.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't disagree, I think cover-1 man is the way to go long-term but we don't really have that skill-set for 2015. The thing is, BB can switch scheme pretty easily so there'd be no difficulty switching to a cover-3 in '15 to allow for the limitations of the CBs and then when they get better, switch back. As for the tampa-2 I suggested, a lot of that can be accomplished with fairly low picks because the priorities in that scheme are the front 4 and the MLB, all of which we have in place aside from maybe one DT.

In terms of drafting tampa-2, you could draft a Byron Jones or whomever to be your #1 press corner anyway, move McCourty to CB if the draftee isn't ready to go day one and play Dennard/Butler/Ryan as #CB2. Draft a DT like Hardison/Jarrett/RNR to play alongside Easley and then either draft Damarious Randall to play next to Harmon or wait for day 3 and if Holliman is there, draft him for his takeaway upside. Ben Heeney in that MLB role is another mid-late draftee that fits. It's only Damarious Randall and Holliman that might be considered superfluous in a non tampa-2 scheme although I'd disagree on Randall - his athleticism and skill set make him worth considering as a day 2 prospect anyway. It can be done without sacrificing any long-term plans.

It's certainly possible, and my approach is not based on a crystal ball. Personally, I wouldn't move McCourty to CB (using him there on occasion is different - even with the 2014 CBs that happened) and spend a high pick on a FS, I'd rather spend the capital on guys who fit in my eventual target scheme, and jury-rig the best possible interim approach for 2015. Randall is a fine player, but he was looked at by the Pats before they re-signed McCourty; I think he's really a safety, and fits best in a Cover-2 or as a McCourty replacement if McCourty moves to CB. Neither of those is my personal long term direction, so I'd be hesitant to use a day 2 pick on such a target, good as he may be. He's certainly worth a day 2 pick, but I'm not sure he's worth it to us given other areas to target and available values. Holliman will be cheaper, but is much more scheme limited, and not as good, IMO.

Again, your plan is certainly reasonable, and it could well end up being what BB does. It's not my approach, which would be to target the best prospects available for getting back to press-man as the dominant scheme as soon as possible, but I certainly don't have a monopoly on blueprints. It will be interesting to see what direction BB eventually takes.

 

[manxman2601]

It's certainly possible, and my approach is not based on a crystal ball. Personally, I wouldn't move McCourty to CB (using him there on occasion is different - even with the 2014 CBs that happened) and spend a high pick on a FS, I'd rather spend the capital on guys who fit in my eventual target scheme, and jury-rig the best possible interim approach for 2015. Randall is a fine player, but he was looked at by the Pats before they re-signed McCourty; I think he's really a safety, and fits best in a Cover-2 or as a McCourty replacement if McCourty moves to CB. Neither of those is my personal long term direction, so I'd be hesitant to use a day 2 pick on such a target, good as he may be. He's certainly worth a day 2 pick, but I'm not sure he's worth it to us given other areas to target and available values. Holliman will be cheaper, but is much more scheme limited, and not as good, IMO.

Again, your plan is certainly reasonable, and it could well end up being what BB does. It's not my approach, which would be to target the best prospects available for getting back to press-man as the dominant scheme as soon as possible, but I certainly don't have a monopoly on blueprints. It will be interesting to see what direction BB eventually takes.

1. Yes Holliman is scheme limited and not as good - I acknowledged that. But he has the ability to get INTs, something not to be dismissed by BB and can be had cheaply - I wouldn't draft him before day 3 and day 3 picks are throwaways for BB judging by last year.

2. Damarious Randall isn't too dissimilar to Jimmie Ward. and has some Mathieu to his game. We have good depth at safety but nothing too exciting behind McCourty. Safeties who run in the 4.4s don't come along too often, at ;east recently, and Randall could play the slot or man-cover safety.

I just think it helps to think outside the box a little rather than locking on to one scheme. I'm with you on going cover-1 long-term, it's just that it will be hard to run it this season.

 

[mayoclinic]

I just think it helps to think outside the box a little rather than locking on to one scheme. I'm with you on going cover-1 long-term, it's just that it will be hard to run it this season.

It's a question of optimization. I fully expect us to run less Cover-1 this season. That's what the FA fill ins, along with the current guys on the roster, are for. For the long term, building through the draft, I prefer to optimize for what I want to eventually see. Your approach is eminently reasonable, and could well end up being the preferred option. I'm not criticizing it in the least. It's just not the approach that I'm personally choosing, but that's just me.

 

[Luxusdk]

Manx and Unoriginal, you may be entirely correct for 2015. BB is a pragmatist, and he'd dial the complexity up or down depending on what he think the personnel can do. Clearly, the personnel on the back end won't be able to do as much as the 2014 personnel could do. In the long term, however - and in terms of the kind of players to target - I still think the goal is to get back to doing the kinds of things that we did in 2014 (or in 2001, 2003, and 2004 for that matter), and that requires getting some more physical CBs who can play press-man - to exclusively, but predominantly - at a high level.

Will they play some Cover-2 and more Cover-3 in 2015? Almost certainly. BB practically sneared at Seattle's Cover-3 (with some banged up personnel, admittedly) down the stretch in the SB, and TB picked it apart in the 4th quarter. But we don't play many guys this year - at least in the regular season - with that kind of ability to pick apart a coverage scheme.

I see this year as a year to adapt while rebuilding the back end to do what we did in 2014, at much lower cost, and built for a longer run.

Im 100% with you on this last part. This year is a so-so year with goals toward NeXT year. By then BB and Patriots should get around 30-40mill more cap Space, depending on Mayo, and even less needs to fill! This year is a "Building" year to find a CB, LG and mayby DT in the draft.

 

[mayoclinic]

Im 100% with you on this last part. This year is a so-so year with goals toward NeXT year. By then BB and Patriots should get around 30-40mill more cap Space, depending on Mayo, and even less needs to fill! This year is a "Building" year to find a CB, LG and mayby DT in the draft.

That's what I thought I said, as far as CB goes (I agree on the others, but they are outside of my post). This year will be an interim year and a "building year" in terms of the CB position (I used the term "rebuilding").

 

[patchick]

My top 2 press-man CBs in this draft are Marcus Peters and Eric Rowe.

From time to time, I jot down a list names that I'd put on a draft game entry if the draft were tomorrow. I've just looked back over my lists and noticed that Eric Rowe was on every single version.

Given that CBs have been drafted very aggressively in recent years, I'm thinking round 3 is probably his floor.