My Blueprint for the Defense

[Patriot Missile]

Unoriginal had an insightful (dare I say "original") comment on a thread on the main board today:



http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ds/some-praise-for-the-defense.1114935/page-2 (post #21)

Simplistically, I think there's 2 ways to stop running plays: (1) be a "wall" and stand up the opposing OL and prevent them from creating running lanes, and (2) penetrate and disrupt the timing of the RB to hit the hole and fine a running lane. The Pats generally have done more of the former than the latter.

Dominique Easley will never be more than an adequate "wall", but he has the potential to be a paramount disruptor. One of the things that I like about Eddie Goldman, Jordan Phillips and Malcolm Brown is that they all bring a degree of penetration and disruption as well as being "walls". They can penetrate and blow up plays, or 2 gap and tie up opposing linemen to prevent holes from being created. I think that's a very valuable combination.

I'm thinking there is a good chance one of those 3 will fall into where the Pats will be drafting. I'd love to have a shot at a good olineman and this may be reactionary but I think DT has just moved to the top of the list. Don't get me wrong, TJ Clemmings is my first choice and I'd probably draft him if he were there but if he is gone and one of those 3 fall it's a no brainer. Ideally a double dip would be nice. If all 3 are drafted as well as Clemmings I'm not drafting a DT just to draft one. You just go best player available I guess.

Pipe dream, but if there was some way to free up enough room after Revis/McCourty to sign Greg Hardy I'd be all for it to get the exterior pass rush going. Not sure about his situation and worth after being suspended but if he was eager to turn over a new leaf and get a fresh start for a reasonable figure I'd be all for it. Pairing him and Jones would be an absolute nightmare for opposing offenses.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm thinking there is a good chance one of those 3 will fall into where the Pats will be drafting. I'd love to have a shot at a good olineman and this may be reactionary but I think DT has just moved to the top of the list. Don't get me wrong, TJ Clemmings is my first choice and I'd probably draft him if he were there but if he is gone and one of those 3 fall it's a no brainer. Ideally a double dip would be nice. If all 3 are drafted as well as Clemmings I'm not drafting a DT just to draft one. You just go best player available I guess.

Clemmings is on my highest tier of draft prospects right now, along with Goldman. Phillips and Brown aren't far behind. I'm happier with the day 2 depth at OL than I am at DT, and other than Clemmings I don't think there's that big a falloff between guys like La'el Collins, Brandon Scherff, Cam Erving and Ereck Flowers and guys like Jake Fisher and Jeremiah Poutasi.

Pipe dream, but if there was some way to free up enough room after Revis/McCourty to sign Greg Hardy I'd be all for it to get the exterior pass rush going. Not sure about his situation and worth after being suspended but if he was eager to turn over a new leaf and get a fresh start for a reasonable figure I'd be all for it. Pairing him and Jones would be an absolute nightmare for opposing offenses.

I was on that pipe dream last year, though I knew it would never happen. This year, with the off field issues, it just doesn't seem worth thinking about. But from a skill set perspective, I agree.

 

[Patriot Missile]

[QUOTE I was on that pipe dream last year, though I knew it would never happen. This year, with the off field issues, it just doesn't seem worth thinking about. But from a skill set perspective, I agree.[/QUOTE]

His price will never be lower. But yeah, I'm not sure they would bring a player with his baggage in but you never know? They brought in Haynesworth on a trial basis although his price may not be low enough.

 

[manxman2601]

DT snap counts from PFF

Wilfork:



Chris Jones:



Alan Branch:



Siliga:



My problem with a first round DT is, considering the obvious DT rotation, is there sufficient value for a second consecutive first round DT? That's one of my biggest problems with taking a DT in the first. I also have questions as to whether Goldman and Phillips are worthy of a first round pick (sorry Mayo although early days) although I'm more confident about Malcom Brown. I also question whether there's first round value in a non pass-rushing DT anyway. Timmy Jernigan, who had a really good game yesterday, was a second round pick. Louis Nix and Jonathan Hankins, both arguably better than the DTs available in this draft were second round picks. That's where I stand.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Manx you could make the same argument for the offensive line. After Scherff and Clemmings who do you see with first round value? Erving,Stanley,Collins Flowers etc are 2nd round value to me, at least until the sr bowls and combines play out.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I like Clemmings and Collins because they are coming from system's with power-running games. LSU. Pitt had former Wisconsin asst. Chryst coaching them. Clemmings helped clear the way for Conner to have a great season. I think either could start from Day 1 at guard. Erving would be my 3rd choice. Like him because of his versatility. But, I want someone who can move people. And, shouldn't struggle in pass blocking if we go OL. They both played tackle in college. So, should be ok there.

 

[manxman2601]

Manx you could make the same argument for the offensive line. After Scherff and Clemmings who do you see with first round value? Erving,Stanley,Collins Flowers etc are 2nd round value to me, at least until the sr bowls and combines play out.

I have three offensive linemen with a first round grade: Clemmings, La'el Collins and Brandon Scherff. Erving is a borderline first rounder for me, someone I'd rather nab in a tradeback. This might be my favourite option right now. Have yet to study Cann enough to make a judgement. I don't like Flowers in the first two rounds.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I have three offensive linemen with a first round grade: Clemmings, La'el Collins and Brandon Scherff. Erving is a borderline first rounder for me, someone I'd rather nab in a tradeback. This might be my favourite option right now. Have yet to study Cann enough to make a judgement. I don't like Flowers in the first two rounds.

I think Flowers and Peat go before our binkies because some teams will project them as LT's. Always, a more valuable position. Possible, Ogbuehi goes before our guys because of that too. I hope Ronnie Stanley comes out too. That will drop our guys even further.

 

[mayoclinic]

My problem with a first round DT is, considering the obvious DT rotation, is there sufficient value for a second consecutive first round DT? That's one of my biggest problems with taking a DT in the first. I also have questions as to whether Goldman and Phillips are worthy of a first round pick (sorry Mayo although early days) although I'm more confident about Malcom Brown. I also question whether there's first round value in a non pass-rushing DT anyway. Timmy Jernigan, who had a really good game yesterday, was a second round pick. Louis Nix and Jonathan Hankins, both arguably better than the DTs available in this draft were second round picks. That's where I stand.

You and I disagree on this, and that's fine. I think that DT's have incredible value, and I think having a rotation is vitally important. I see 2015 as VW's likely last season, and getting a successor in place a reasonable cost (especially given the looming 2nd contracts of Jones, Hightower and Collins) is vitally important.

I loved both Johnathan Hankins and Brandon Williams in 2013. They were two of my favorite DTs, in a very good class where some guys went well above where we picked (Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei). Getting Hankins in the 2nd and Williams in the 3rd was a great move by those teams. Big DTs with the quickness to penetrate and not be liabilities against the run are particularly valuable. Sylvester Williams was another guy on my list in 2013, and he's been a terrific pick up for Denver, and one of the best players on their defense. Carolina became an instant elite defense in 2013 when they drafted Star Lotulelei at #14 and Kawann Short in the 2nd round (#44 overall). Short gave Seattle fits yesterday, and it would have been even harder if Lotulelei hadn't been out with a foot injury.

I was less high on Louis Nix last year (who fell to the 3rd round, BTW), because I didn't see the same kind of athleticism and explosiveness as I saw with guys like Sylvester Williams, Brandon Williams and Johnathan Hankins. I think that Eddie Goldman compares reasonably to Sylvester Williams, and Malcolm Brown to Johnathan Hankins, though Brown has MUCH better hand usage than Hankins, which is why I rate him higher. I rate Brown more highly than Hankins or Timmy Jernigan.

Again, no harm in disagreeing, but that's where I stand.

 

[mayoclinic]

A couple of interesting tidbits from Reiss today, cleaning up some notes from the divisional game against Baltimore:

1. One reminder that it's the playoffs and there's no sense holding anything back: Linebacker Jamie Collins and defensive end Chandler Jones -- top players on defense who seldom play on special teams coverage or return units -- were both part of the punt return unit. That was the first we've seen it in some time, and Collins almost had a block with a strong interior rush (14:12, second quarter). It looked like Collins and Jones took the spots of linebacker Chris White and tight end Tim Wright.

2. A nice little under-the-radar story is how safety Tavon Wilson continues to carve out a niche for himself on defense. The much-maligned 2012 second-round pick was tapped as the fifth defensive back as part of a big nickel package against the 3-WR/1-FB/1-RB grouping and is moving around the field with confidence, with the coaches also entrusting him with back-end responsibilities at times. In addition to the nickel, Wilson also came on in dime and seven-defensive back groupings. It's well within bounds to say he looked better than Ravens 2013 first-round pick Matt Elam, a safety who is developing a reputation as a missed tackle waiting to happen. Bottom line: Don't write off Wilson just yet, especially given some of the struggles other young safeties have had around the NFL.

3. The Patriots matched two-TE and most two-back groupings with their 5-2 big package and this wasn't a very good game for the heavyweights up front. The Ravens got them moving laterally with their zone blocking scheme, and the powerful press technique that often makes Patriots defensive linemen effective was effectively negated as defensive linemen also had to contend with cut blocks. The Ravens controlled the line of scrimmage, but I don't see another team still alive, outside of Seattle, that might be able to produce similar results (albeit with a different style of play).

4. The Patriots usually leave their defensive ends on a specific side, but they flipped Chandler Jones (usually on the defensive right) and Rob Ninkovich at times. The first time we saw this was on Torrey Smith's 22-yard catch in the first quarter (13:11). Ravens offensive tackles James Hurst (left) and Marshal Yanda (right) got the better of the action. Jones had two offsides penalties in the game, which wasn't his best.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...776201/closing-book-on-patriots-ravens-part-i

Points #2 and 3 are particularly interesting, IMO. I think the Pats will use a lot of different looks in both base and sub in a multi-front hybrid defense, but I also think that there will be 2 dominant schemes:

1. A 4-2-1-4 (or 2-4-1-4) hybrid "sub" defense, which the Pats may likely run the majority of the time. I think this is the most important scheme for which to optimize. The key elements are:

- 4 very versatile players who can line up interchangeably either on the line or at the LB level. Jones, Ninkovich, Ayers, Hightower and Collins all fit this mold. Buchanan may eventually get there. I'd like to add another player who could fit in this role. Max Valles, Bud Dupree and Danielle Hunter seem like good candidates to me.

- 2 tackles that can hold the front against the run but who can also get upfield and disrupt. Dominique Easley will hopefully fill one of these roles. Ideally, I'd like to see the other DT be a bigger guy who can 2-gap and chew up blockers, but also penetrate and disrupt. Eddie Goldman, Malcolm Brown and Jordan Phillips are the 3 guys who I could se excelling in this role.

- A deep safety who can guard the deep part of the field and the middle of the field. Devin McCourty is ideal for this role. Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon can also play this role.

- 3 CBs who can match up in man coverage effectively. Revis, Browner and Arrington are a very good start. I'd like to see 1 bigger CB for depth against teams who have packages featuring multiple bigger WRs.

- A "stud" or "star" hybrid DB who can play as a 3rd LB, 4th CB, and either safety position. Mostly this will involve run support, blitzing, dropping into zone coverage, and matching up with TEs and RBs. But this player has to also be able to play slot CB, and to play some deep safety for 2 deep looks (or to line up in that look and then drop down as a robber). Pat Chung and Tavon Wilson both have the skill set and experience to play that role. Their development is a major storyline to follow for 2015, IMO - if either or both can develop further, it will add a major dimension to this defense.

2. A "big" defense used mainly in "base" and against run heavy teams. This hybrid would morph between 5-2, 4-3 Under, and 3-4 fronts depending on how the edge players are deployed, but in all cases would feature 3 "big" lineman. Eddie Goldman played end last year for Florida St., and I think he could excel in both schemes, which is part of why I like him so much. Jerod Mayo would also be very important in this scheme.

Also from Reiss:

1. Between Kyle Arrington and second-year cornerback Logan Ryan, the Patriots received big-time performances from their No. 3 and 4 options on the depth chart. Add in the big game that safety Devin McCourty had -- “I think he’s one of the most underrated free safeties in the game,” NBC analyst Cris Collinsworth said -- as well as Duron Harmon's game-sealing interception, and it’s a storyline that’s hard to miss. In a year when the team’s development of defensive backs has come under scrutiny in some media circles, almost all of their young defensive backs delivered in the biggest of spots.

4. Arrington (5-foot-10, 190 pounds) gives up a lot on the tale of the tape against offensive tackle James Hurst (6-5, 308), but he was fearless with his run force on a Justin Forsett run for minus-1 yard (6:35, third quarter). That play helped set up third-and-11, the Patriots got the ball back and then tied the game 28-28 on the double pass on the ensuing drive. Arrington’s run force to help produce a Dont'a Hightower tackle was one of the underrated plays of the game, and he added another strong play in run support later (third quarter, 2:30, Forsett 3-yard gain).

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...76207/closing-book-on-patriots-ravens-part-ii

It's important to remember that Arrington was notably absent in the Pats' loss to Green Bay. Put him in the game and matchups change notably: Arrington on Randall Cobb, Revis on Jorday Nelson, and Browner on Devante Adams.

For all the talk earlier this season about the Pats' secondary coaches stunting the development of DBs, it's worth emphasizing how much Chung, Wilson, Ebner and Arrington have all developed.

 

[Gabriel_p94]

A couple of interesting tidbits from Reiss today, cleaning up some notes from the divisional game against Baltimore:


http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...776201/closing-book-on-patriots-ravens-part-i

Points #2 and 3 are particularly interesting, IMO. I think the Pats will use a lot of different looks in both base and sub in a multi-front hybrid defense, but I also think that there will be 2 dominant schemes:

1. A 4-2-1-4 (or 2-4-1-4) hybrid "sub" defense, which the Pats may likely run the majority of the time. I think this is the most important scheme for which to optimize. The key elements are:

- 4 very versatile players who can line up interchangeably either on the line or at the LB level. Jones, Ninkovich, Ayers, Hightower and Collins all fit this mold. Buchanan may eventually get there. I'd like to add another player who could fit in this role. Max Valles, Bud Dupree and Danielle Hunter seem like good candidates to me.

- 2 tackles that can hold the front against the run but who can also get upfield and disrupt. Dominique Easley will hopefully fill one of these roles. Ideally, I'd like to see the other DT be a bigger guy who can 2-gap and chew up blockers, but also penetrate and disrupt. Eddie Goldman, Malcolm Brown and Jordan Phillips are the 3 guys who I could se excelling in this role.

- A deep safety who can guard the deep part of the field and the middle of the field. Devin McCourty is ideal for this role. Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon can also play this role.

- 3 CBs who can match up in man coverage effectively. Revis, Browner and Arrington are a very good start. I'd like to see 1 bigger CB for depth against teams who have packages featuring multiple bigger WRs.

- A "stud" or "star" hybrid DB who can play as a 3rd LB, 4th CB, and either safety position. Mostly this will involve run support, blitzing, dropping into zone coverage, and matching up with TEs and RBs. But this player has to also be able to play slot CB, and to play some deep safety for 2 deep looks (or to line up in that look and then drop down as a robber). Pat Chung and Tavon Wilson both have the skill set and experience to play that role. Their development is a major storyline to follow for 2015, IMO - if either or both can develop further, it will add a major dimension to this defense.

2. A "big" defense used mainly in "base" and against run heavy teams. This hybrid would morph between 5-2, 4-3 Under, and 3-4 fronts depending on how the edge players are deployed, but in all cases would feature 3 "big" lineman. Eddie Goldman played end last year for Florida St., and I think he could excel in both schemes, which is part of why I like him so much. Jerod Mayo would also be very important in this scheme.

Also from Reiss:


http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...76207/closing-book-on-patriots-ravens-part-ii

It's important to remember that Arrington was notably absent in the Pats' loss to Green Bay. Put him in the game and matchups change notably: Arrington on Randall Cobb, Revis on Jorday Nelson, and Browner on Devante Adams.

For all the talk earlier this season about the Pats' secondary coaches stunting the development of DBs, it's worth emphasizing how much Chung, Wilson, Ebner and Arrington have all developed.

I'm thinking if we play Green Bay our defense will do well against what they do. I have a feeling our defense is stronger than it was when we first played against Green Bay, And I could see us coming away with a win in that one. But if we play Seattle I don't see us winning that one. I'm thinking we should do better than Denver did last year though.

 

[mayoclinic]

As noted above, Reiss commented on the use of a 5-2 front against the Ravens run-heavy offensive packages:

3. The Patriots matched two-TE and most two-back groupings with their 5-2 big package and this wasn't a very good game for the heavyweights up front. The Ravens got them moving laterally with their zone blocking scheme, and the powerful press technique that often makes Patriots defensive linemen effective was effectively negated as defensive linemen also had to contend with cut blocks. The Ravens controlled the line of scrimmage, but I don't see another team still alive, outside of Seattle, that might be able to produce similar results (albeit with a different style of play).

This also came up in Reiss' mailbag today, and Reiss commented on Jerod Mayo's importance in these kind of base packages:

Q. Mike, I was not happy to see the defense (especially the front seven) perform so poorly against the Ravens. However, I'd like your take on how much of that was bad play by the Pats and how much of it should be credit given to a big, tough zone/cut/chop blocking Ravens line coupled with what looked like a really good game plan by Gary Kubiak? That zone blocking scheme with a quick one cut runner like Forsett has proven very successful in NFL history. -- Scott (Charlotte, North Carolina)

A. Scott, the run defense was poor and I thought this was a game where the season-ending injury to Jerod Mayo showed up more than any other. When they're in the base defense as much as they were with those three big defensive tackles flanked by ends Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich, you need those big guys to press blockers and control gaps, but it looked to me like they were getting walled off and the angle blocks and cut blocks were creating nice running lanes. That's a credit to the Ravens, absolutely. But I think the Patriots can play it better and, in retrospect, subbing out a big defensive tackle for a linebacker like Mayo would have made a big difference from this view. I don't see them facing another team that can do the same thing to them the rest of the way.

Q. Hi Mike, my question is about the pass rush. In the previous years we used to say that a third DE would be really useful in terms of getting fresh legs on the field and resting Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Now we have one, Akeem Ayers, and he played as many snaps on defense as Gronk (1). It's not like CJ and Nink are generating great pass rush, so why not use Ayers more? -- Memo (London)

A. I'd be surprised if we don't see more of Ayers against the Colts, because the game plan will be different. Against the Colts, I wouldn't expect the Patriots to be in the "heavy" 5-2 defense we saw whenever the Ravens came out in two tight ends or a fullback/running back combination. Priority No. 1 for the Patriots was stopping the run against Baltimore and they sacrificed some pass rush to do it (Ayers isn't viewed as good of a run defender as Jones and Ninkovich). The priorities, I believe, will shift to the passing game this week.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...4776238/weekly-patriots-mail-is-delivered-188

 

[dliverey]

Just a random thought..looking for opinions about this..We cut VW, Dola and Solder (draft people that could replace them) and sign Justin Houston along with resigning McCourty and extending Revis.

Not that I want this to happen but I was watching some KC games today and Houston is WOW!!!

If this were to occur. It would not change our (fans) draft strategy since most of us would like them to go OL and DL early.

Thoughts??

 

[Gabriel_p94]

Just a random thought..looking for opinions about this..We cut VW, Dola and Solder (draft people that could replace them) and sign Justin Houston along with resigning McCourty and extending Revis.

Not that I want this to happen but I was watching some KC games today and Houston is WOW!!!

If this were to occur. It would not change our (fans) draft strategy since most of us would like them to go OL and DL early.

Thoughts??

I actually liked justin Houston more than Von miller when they were both coming out.

 

[mayoclinic]

Just a random thought..looking for opinions about this..We cut VW, Dola and Solder (draft people that could replace them) and sign Justin Houston along with resigning McCourty and extending Revis.

Not that I want this to happen but I was watching some KC games today and Houston is WOW!!!

If this were to occur. It would not change our (fans) draft strategy since most of us would like them to go OL and DL early.

Thoughts??

It's creative, but I can't see it happening, for several reasons:

1. BB seems like he values a well rounded roster and depth more than adding star players. Adding Houston would leave the Pats weak at 3 positions.

2. I'm not sure Houston is a great fit given that we play 75% of the time in sub. He would have to take Ninkovich's spot on the DL.

3. He will have a huge contract wherever he goes, with big cap hits down the road. Given the looming 2nd contracts for Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins, that would result in a prohibitive amount of investment in a small number of players on one area of the team (DE/LB).

Much as I agree that Houston is a beast, I can't see it making sense.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Just a random thought..looking for opinions about this..We cut VW, Dola and Solder (draft people that could replace them) and sign Justin Houston along with resigning McCourty and extending Revis.

Not that I want this to happen but I was watching some KC games today and Houston is WOW!!!

If this were to occur. It would not change our (fans) draft strategy since most of us would like them to go OL and DL early.

Thoughts??

Solder is better than any LT in this draft. He wasn't as good in 2014 as he was the previous two year. No reason to dump him.

 

[mayoclinic]

Solder is better than any LT in this draft. He wasn't as good in 2014 as he was the previous two year. No reason to dump him.

As a pure LT, absolutely. TJ Clemmings is the only guy who I think could be better than Solder, and he's still a work in progress and a question in terms of his best final position. Andrew Peat reminds me of a lesser version of Solder.

Definitely no reason to dump Solder, unless long term contract negotiations break down completely.

 

[dliverey]

I agree Solder is better than anyone we could draft. I was just looking at ways to try and fix the pass rush. Houston is great at beating 1-1 match-ups and that is a problem we have at LDE. I do expect a big game from Nink against the Colts, but he is very hot and cold.

If we were to let Solder go then we could move Vollmer to LT, put Cannon, Fleming or the drafted rook at RT. As I said I do not want this to happen because I think that if Connolly is let go it would be too much disruption on the R side of the OL.

I just really want a more consistent pass rush from more than Chandler Jones. I am hoping that Easley can be that guy, I think Buchannon will carve out a role next year, but LDE needs a more athletic and explosive player.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's creative, but I can't see it happening, for several reasons:

3. He will have a huge contract wherever he goes, with big cap hits down the road. Given the looming 2nd contracts for Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins, that would result in a prohibitive amount of investment in a small number of players on one area of the team (DE/LB).

Much as I agree that Houston is a beast, I can't see it making sense.

A nice Grantland piece on the value of "homegrown" products Jones, Hightower and Collins:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/n...chandler-jones-donta-hightower-jamie-collins/

It will be hard enough to keep all 3, much less add another high priced pass rusher. What the Pats do need is to pipeline some low-cost depth and rotational talent. Jerod Mayo's contract will probably come off the books around the time the big money kicks in for those 3 (2016-2017), and Vince Wilfork's cap hit should be distant history by that point. It's not clear how much Michael Buchanan and Zach Moore will provide. Pipelining some low cost talent at DT, DE and OLB is important, both for positional depth and for the overall cap structure of the team.

 

[mayoclinic]

Another nice read, this one by Bleacher lead writer Ty Schalter, who calls Jamie Collins the "centerpiece" of the Pats' defense:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...out-postseason-carry-patriots-d-to-super-bowl