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My Blueprint for the Defense


Based upon Miguel's salary cap analyses, I tend to keep my analysis as realistic as possible.

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=902

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=894

I would rather keep Revis and McCourty than Browner and McCourty.

As for Jonathan Casillas, if he is not willing to sign for the veteran minimum, see ya. Ditto Alan Branch.

I anticipate that Akeem Ayers will test the UFA market.

I don't think we can say what is realistic and what isn't at this point. We don't know what the 2015 cap will be, or exactly what the adjusted cap. We don't know what moves the Pats will make between now and the start of the new league season next March. We don't know whether the Pats will get any credits, or how they will prioritize some choices to make. Last year many people didn't feel that they could keep Talib and Edelman (much less upgrade to Revis).

There will be some hard (and some not-so-hard) decisions to be made: what to do with Wilfork's contract, Browner, Arrington, Amendola, Gostkowski, Connolly, Slater, Mayo (potential restructure), Solder, 5th year options on Jones and Hightower, and others. I'm not willing to make a call on all of those yet. I'm hopeful that the Pats can keep Revis, Browner and McCourty together as the nucleus of the best secondary in the NFL, and I'm hopeful that they can keep Ayers, Branch and Casillas as valuable low-cost depth. That may end up being unrealistic, but it's just too early to tell.
 
There will be some hard (and some not-so-hard) decisions to be made: what to do with Wilfork's contract, Browner, Arrington, Amendola, Gostkowski, Connolly, Slater, Mayo (potential restructure), Solder, 5th year options on Jones and Hightower, and others. I'm not willing to make a call on all of those yet. I'm hopeful that the Pats can keep Revis, Browner and McCourty together as the nucleus of the best secondary in the NFL, and I'm hopeful that they can keep Ayers, Branch and Casillas as valuable low-cost depth. That may end up being unrealistic, but it's just too early to tell.
I made a conservative calculation based upon Miguel's analysis:

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=894

Cutting Brandon Browner saves $5.5 million

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/brandon-browner/

McCourty - $4.285 million ($4 million minimum)
Siliga - $0.660 million
White - $0.555 million (veteran minimum exemption)
Total - $5.500 million

http://www.patscap.com/2015patscap.html

All salaries for players with four or more years of experience AND who sign contracts that qualify for veteran's exemption will only count $555,000 (the minimum salary of a player with two credited seasons) against teams' salary caps.

I would further investigate restructuring Jerod Mayo's contract to add two potential veteran minimum exempt contracts (Branch, Casillas), salary cap cost of a 2015 3rd Round Draft Pick, salary cap cost of a 2015 7th Round Draft Pick (Tennessee's 7th round selection) for a zero net salary cap increase from the New England Patriots defensive perspective.
 
And if Pats win Super Bowl, Big Vince could retire on top... Suddenly you getting a hole on DL they HAVE to fix. Could it be Mayo they sacrifise to do so? Or do they cut Browner and potential moves the problem from DT to CB?
 
Right now my "dream" scenario for the Pats for 2015 would look something like this:

- Extend McCourty and Revis, with a combined 2015 cap hit of about $15M
- Extend/restructure Jerod Mayo, lowering his 2015 cap hit to about $7-8M
- Extend/restructure Browner, lowering his 2015 cap hit to about $3-4M
- Extend/restructure Kyle Arrington, lowering his 2015 cap hit to about $3-4M
- Re-sign Pat Chung on a cheap 2 year deal ($1-1.5M)
- Resign Akeem Ayers, Alan Branch and Jonathan Casillas on relatively low-cost deals ($1-2M 2015 cap hit range each)
- Cut Tavon Wilson (cap savings $1M); do not re-sign Chris White (James Morris will be a backup ILB and STer; he gets signed to an ERFA contract)
- Use 5th year option on Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower and eventually extend at least 1 of them

I haven't worked through the math for this in detail, but given the reduction in cap hits (especially from Revis' current $25M) and the savings, I think all of this is doable

- Make a decision on keeping Wilfork vs. signing a younger UFA DT (Terrance Knighton, Nick Fairley, Jared Odrick)
- Draft at least 2 of the following: a DT (Malcolm Brown is my preference), a DE or DE/OLB (Danielle Hunter, Shilique Calhoun) and a safety (Jaquiski Tartt, Adrian Amos, Durell Eskridge)

I don't know if this is all feasible. It's very early, and this is a very rough sketch.
 
The whole key is Revis. Need to get his extension done as soon as the season is over. If not before. That affects "EVERY" other decision on the defensive side of the ball. Would he take 5/80?? With half of it guaranteed?? You could make the yearly salaries, 4,6,8,10 and 12. First year cap hit would be 12. We'd save 13m right there and that would be more than enough to sign McCourty and Chung. Your whole secondary is back.

Mayo's gotta bring his salary down from 6.2 next year. I'd cut Amendola and HooMan. That should be enough to bring; Slater, Vereen and Gostkowski back.

VW was awesome against Denver and Indy. Would be hard to cut him if he finishes healthy. He's earned his contract and shown he's worth keeping another year. I'd draft his eventual replacement real early though. Prob 1st rounder.

Draft a de(2), lb(4) and DB(6or7) to go with that DT and there's your defense. I'd move Ryan to safety and see how that goes. May not even have to draft a db if our current players finish the season healthy.
 
The whole key is Revis. Need to get his extension done as soon as the season is over. If not before. That affects "EVERY" other decision on the defensive side of the ball. Would he take 5/80?? With half of it guaranteed?? You could make the yearly salaries, 4,6,8,10 and 12. First year cap hit would be 12. We'd save 13m right there and that would be more than enough to sign McCourty and Chung. Your whole secondary is back.

If Revis can be extended and lower his cap hit to about $12M for 2015, the $13 savings would cover the like 2015 cap hits for re-signing McCourty, Chung, Ayers, Branch and Casillas and probably leave about $3M left over. We'd have the whole defense back (with a healthy Mayo and Jones), and that's without addressing possible restructurings to Mayo, Arrington, etc.

Mayo's gotta bring his salary down from 6.2 next year. I'd cut Amendola and HooMan. That should be enough to bring; Slater, Vereen and Gostkowski back.

VW was awesome against Denver and Indy. Would be hard to cut him if he finishes healthy. He's earned his contract and shown he's worth keeping another year. I'd draft his eventual replacement real early though. Prob 1st rounder.

Draft a de(2), lb(4) and DB(6or7) to go with that DT and there's your defense. I'd move Ryan to safety and see how that goes. May not even have to draft a db if our current players finish the season healthy.

If Wilfork keeps up his current level of play he probably buys another year. This draft is loaded with athletic big DTs who are more than just space eaters - Malcolm Brown, Eddie Goldman, Danny Sheldon, Ellis McCarthy, Carl Davis, possibly Jordan Phillips. Draft one of those guys and train them behind VW for a year, just as the Pats had Keith Traylor in 2004.

Wilson is going into a contract year and I assume he's gone after 2015 at the latest. Cutting him saves $1M, which could take care of re-signing Casillas. I'd love to draft a replacement like Jaquiski Tartt or Durrell Eskridge. But it's a minor item.

My 2015 dream defense would presumably look something like this:

- DT and "big DE": Vince Wilfork, Dominique Easley, Alan Branch, Chris Jones, Sealver Siliga, rookie
- DE and DE/OLB: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Akeem Ayers, rookie, Zach Moore, Michael Buchanan (Hightower and Collins could also play that role)
- LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jonathan Casillas, James Morris (Ayers and Ninkovich could also get some snaps at LB)
- S: Devin McCourty, Pat Chung, rookie, Nate Ebner, Duron Harmon/Don Jones
- CB: Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington, Alfonzo Dennard, Malcolm Butler

That's 28 players. Injuries and competition will sort things out.
 
i'm not sure about a few of the above. to me, the jury is still out on browner. again, despite the teams success, he's been uneven at best most of the time since his return. additionally, i'm not sure about branch and, despite a couple nice games strung together, i think chung would be easy to replace with a modest savings. i'd like to sign ayers and possibly casillas if the dollars were right. through all these calculations, however, the priority are revis and mccourty. they are the essential personnel. BB can, with remaining personnel and draft choices fix problems around them and longer term deals to both would allow for lower cap numbers and allow resources to spend elsewhere.

with a restructure from mayo, revis, a new contract for mccourty, and potentially with the release of browner, amendola, wilson and probably a couple others (gostowski?) i think we should yield adequate cap space to go after a penetrating defensive tackle. with jones on the outside and with easley and a second stud tackle to push the pocket and with revis and mccourty in the backfield (with the continued maturation of collins and hightower and, i hope a recovered mayo) this would be the defense we have all been waiting for.

the other question is brady's deal. will there be savings from his for next year? it looks to me that his cap number will still be about 14mil. am i reading this correctly? because there would be potential savings there as well, especially with yet another restructure.

as i have argued in the past, with the savings available and with a likely increase in the future salary cap, i think we could and should go after suh if he's on the market next year. with an appropriately structured contract, we could keep both suh and wilfork for a year, then wilfork's money would come off the books (and the greater need for depth at tackle). this approach has been dismissed as unrealistic, but i don't think it would be and i think there are ways to make it work without hamstringing the team for the future.
 
If Revis can be extended and lower his cap hit to about $12M for 2015, the $13 savings would cover the like 2015 cap hits for re-signing McCourty, Chung, Ayers, Branch and Casillas and probably leave about $3M left over. We'd have the whole defense back (with a healthy Mayo and Jones), and that's without addressing possible restructurings to Mayo, Arrington, etc.
Doubtful.

http://www.patscap.com/2015patscap.html

Darrelle Revis received a one year $12 million contract with a $10 million signing bonus prorated over two years. The $5 million salary cap charge for the aforementioned signing bonus proration will be on the books for the 2015 NFL Season whether the New England Patriots exercise the Revis option or not. In essence, Darrelle Revis took a discount to play for the New England Patriots for one season.

I would anticipate that Darrelle Revis would want $16 million in the first year of a new contract. Thus, a salary cap charge of $5 million (original 2014 signing bonus prorated over two years) plus $16 million (first year new contract money) would equate to $21 million salary cap for the 2015 NFL Season. The actual salary cap savings for the New England Patriots would be $4 million. $4 million in salary cap savings would probably not be enough to re-sign Gostkowski and Slater.
 
Doubtful.

http://www.patscap.com/2015patscap.html

Darrelle Revis received a one year $12 million contract with a $10 million signing bonus prorated over two years. The $5 million salary cap charge for the aforementioned signing bonus proration will be on the books for the 2015 NFL Season whether the New England Patriots exercise the Revis option or not. In essence, Darrelle Revis took a discount to play for the New England Patriots for one season.

I would anticipate that Darrelle Revis would want $16 million in the first year of a new contract. Thus, a salary cap charge of $5 million (original 2014 signing bonus prorated over two years) plus $16 million would equate to $21 million salary cap for the 2015 NFL Season. The actual salary cap savings for the New England Patriots would be $4 million.

You can always distribute those 16m via bonus conveniently. Why does it all have to hit next year?
 
And if Pats win Super Bowl, Big Vince could retire on top... Suddenly you getting a hole on DL they HAVE to fix. Could it be Mayo they sacrifise to do so? Or do they cut Browner and potential moves the problem from DT to CB?
Wilfork is BACK! I seriously doubt Wilfork would retire playing at a high level during the 2014 NFL Season.

I would hope the New England Patriots restructure Mayo's contract in a similar fashion that occurred earlier this year with Vince Wilfork.

From my perspective, cutting Brandon Browner is not that big of a deal with Arrington, Butler, Dennard, Revis, Ryan on the roster.
 
You can always distribute those 16m via bonus conveniently. Why does it all have to hit next year?
Darrelle Revis will be 30 years old next year and took a discount to play for the New England Patriots for one season. Darrelle Revis initially received a 6 year, $96 million contract from the Tampa Bay Buccaneeers. The crap you suggest may work for a 26 year old with an expiring rookie contract but Darrelle Revis is one of the best players in the NFL.
 
From my perspective, cutting Brandon Browner is not that big of a deal with Arrington, Butler, Dennard, Revis, Ryan on the roster.

I personally think that Browner adds a tremendous amount to the secondary in terms of physicality, attitude, and ability to match up. I think that the combination of Revis and Browner creates really difficult problems for any offense. JMHO. But I would personally make it a priority to keep him, assuming he maintains his current level of play.
 
Darrelle Revis will be 30 years old next year and took a discount to play for the New England Patriots for one season. Darrelle Revis initially received a 6 year, $96 million contract from the Tampa Bay Buccaneeers. The crap you suggest may work for a 26 year old with an expiring rookie contract but Darrelle Revis is one of the best players in the NFL.

Why would he care? He will still get the same amount of money. The only difference will be on paper in terms of cap dollars per league year.
 
I personally think that Browner adds a tremendous amount to the secondary in terms of physicality, attitude, and ability to match up. I think that the combination of Revis and Browner creates really difficult problems for any offense. JMHO. But I would personally make it a priority to keep him, assuming he maintains his current level of play.
I look at from this perspective. There are only so many salary cap dollars to around for the following players:

Ayers
Branch
Siliga - ERFA
Casillas
White - veteran minimum
Chung
McCourty
Revis - option on the table
Cannon
Connolly - 33 years old next season
Bolden - RFA
Develin - ERFA
Gray - ERFA
Ridley
Vereen
Tyms - ERFA
Aiken - veteran minimum
Gostkowski
Slater

The players who are willing to play for the veteran minimum will most likely remain with the New England Patriots or at worst will be allowed to compete for roster spots.

Given the choice, I would rather retain unrestricted free agent Devin McCourty than keep Brandon Browner on the roster.

I doubt Bill Belichick would allow Matt Slater to depart via unrestricted free agency since Matt Slater is the special teams captain. Stephen Gostkowski is one of the best place kickers in the NFL and Bill Belichick emphasizes special teams probably more so than any other coach in the NFL.
 
Why would he care? He will still get the same amount of money. The only difference will be on paper in terms of cap dollars per league year.
Darrelle Revis received his money at equal installments in his last contract.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/75975/breaking-down-darrelle-revis-contract

Why should a NFL player of elite caliber at the age of 30 now have to resort to a back loaded contract?

Not even Richard Sherman's new contract is back loaded.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/richard-sherman/
 
Darrelle Revis received his money at equal installments in his last contract.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/75975/breaking-down-darrelle-revis-contract

Why should a NFL player of elite caliber now have to resort to a back loaded contract?

Not even Richard Sherman's new contract is back loaded.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/richard-sherman/

But none of it was guaranteed. It was a year-to-year contract. If you give him a realistic 3y+ contract then who cares if the money is set up in equal installments or not. Nobody is proposing to setup a crazily backloaded contract.

From everything I read he is a shrewd business man. I would think he cares more about the actual guaranteed money than the minutiae of how much of his money will count against which league year.
 
But none of it was guaranteed. It was a year-to-year contract. If you give him a realistic 3y+ contract then who cares if the money is set up in equal installments or not. Nobody is proposing to setup a crazily backloaded contract.

From everything I read he is a shrewd business man. I would think he cares more about the actual guaranteed money than the minutiae of how much of his money will count against which league year.
Darrelle Revis is a shrewd business man. Thus, Darrelle Revis will want as much money as possible in the first year of his contract. That equated to a salary cap hit of $16 million in his previous contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If the New England Patriots want Darrelle Revis, the New England Patriots will have to "pay the piper".
 
I personally think that Browner adds a tremendous amount to the secondary in terms of physicality, attitude, and ability to match up. I think that the combination of Revis and Browner creates really difficult problems for any offense. JMHO. But I would personally make it a priority to keep him, assuming he maintains his current level of play.

i'm not sure yet how much browner adds. he's been inconsistent so far. i like his tackling ability and his attitude, but if he can't cover (and i think the jury is still out in that respect) then i'm not sure he belongs. he clearly has difficulty with players downfield when he misses the jam at the line of scrimmage, and he's been missing enough that it could be a real concern. if he's still knocking the rust off and his consistency improves, then he'll be worth the next year of his deal. imho, i'm just not sure we've seen enough to know that yet.

regarding gostowski, he's been great. no question. it's just that excellent kickers abound in this day and age and i'm not sure BB, despite his emphasis on special teams, will ante up the money to re-sign gostowski if he can be replaced at 85-90% capacity with a seventh rounder pick or an udfa. after all, we've been down this road before....
 
I agree with those who feel that Mayo needs to re-do (i.e.: take a pay cut) his contract. Not because
our LB depth is great, or even good (it isn't), but simply because he isn't worth the money. And now
he's damaged goods too.
 
Nice read on Alan Branch:

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/new_england_patriots/2014/11/branch_operations

I thought Branch was going to be another Haloti Ngata when he came out in 2007. Hasn't happened. But since he's joined the Pats, they have given up 62 rushing yards over 2 games. Far too small a sample size to pass judgment, but a dramatic difference in the run defense: 130 YPG average over the first 8 games, including 3 games of over 190 yards rushing and 4 over 150. Obviously Denver and Indy aren't great rushing teams. It will be interesting to see how much the run defense continues to improve with Branch, and the eventual return of Sealver Siliga.
 


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