My Blueprint for the Defense

[mayoclinic]

I said it during the 2012 draft, and I still believe it now: Why in the name of Ganja would Bill take a 4-3 DE like Chandler Jones, then turn right around and take a 3-4 LB like Hightower? No consistency there at all. And if Bill were truly committed to re-making the defense into one that could better play in space, then why didn't he take Lavonte David when he was ripe for the picking?

Hightower has always been an enigma to me, from the day when he was picked. He's obviously a very solid player, but I just never understood the fit. Lavonte David was my binky in 2012, and he played at a DPOY level in 2013 (145 tackles, 7 sacks, 2 FF, 10 PD and 5 INTs). I try not to get caught up in "what could have been scenarios", but of all the missed opportunities the one that most haunts me is that the Pats could have taken Harrison Smith at 25 and David at 48, and had a defense that looks like this:

DL: Ninkovich - Wilfork - Easley - Jones
LB: Collins (SAM) - Mayo (MLB) - David (WLB)
S: McCourty - Smith
DB: Revis - Browner - Dennard/Ryan - Arrington

As I mentioned elsewhere, Hightower has nice burst and explosiveness (his 1.58 10 yard split is comparable to that of Ryan Shazier, Von Miller and Jadeveon Clowney) but horrible mobility (his 7.55 3-cone and 4.64 short shuttle wore worse than those of many offensive linemen). He's just not a guy who is well equipped to play in space.

I personally think that Hightower's best chance of success is to play a "buck" role similar to what Donte Fowler currently plays for Will Muschamp (and to how Muschamp used Brian Orapko at Texas). Make him essentially a line player who moves forward, whether standing up or rushing from a 3 point stance, and limit him in space. The main problem with that right now is that I'm not sure Hightower would be better in that role than Rob Ninkovich, and the Pats are very thin at LB.

I think it's a no-brainer that the Pats pick up Chandler Jones' 2016 option next spring, but I think it's still a very open question as to whether they do so for Hightower. He's a solid player, but is he worth $7M/year or more? He'll need to show a lot more this year to justify that kind of investment, IMHO.

 

[mayoclinic]

FWIW, PFF's Sam Monson (of "Tom Brady is not a top 5 QB" fame) has this piece discussing the relative trade-offs of tracking WRs vs. playing individual sides and rolling your safety coverage:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/10/the-art-of-tracking-and-the-nfls-best-cornerbacks/

An interesting read.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's just OTAs, but Pete Carroll thinks he may just possibly have another find in 2012 5th round draft pick and 2013 PS LB Korey Toomer:

“He probably has been the brightest guy of the whole camp,” Carroll said. “Jumped up the most. His speed is obvious. He no longer is a rook; not understanding. He’s studied really hard, he’s worked hard. In the offseasons he’s watched so much, he practices just like the guys that are playing all the time. He looks like he can compete with all those guys.”

http://12thmanrising.com/2014/06/10/korey-toomer-making-big-plays-big-statement-otas/

Toomer, from Idaho, was cut during roster cut-downs and spent 2012 on the PS. He spent 2013 on IR. He is 6'2" 234# and ran a 4.53 40 with a 42" VJ, 10'10" BJ, 4.0 SS and 6.87 3-cone.

The Seahawks have used day 3 picks in recent years on KJ Wright (2011 4th round), Malcolm Smith (2011 7th round; 4.44 40, 39" VJ at 6' 226#), Kevin Pierre Louis (2014 4th round; 4.46 40, 39" VJ, 10'8" BJ, 4.02 SS and 6.92 3C at 6' 232#) and Toomer. It's very clear that Carroll and Schneider value speed at the second level. The Seahawks' DL and secondary both got lots of attention, but I think that the pure speed and athleticism that they have at LB (2012 2nd round pick Bobby Wagner also ran a 4.46 40 with a 39.5" VJ and 11" BJ) is a major factor on their defense.

 

[captain stone]

FWIW, PFF's Sam Monson (of "Tom Brady is not a top 5 QB" fame) has this piece discussing the relative trade-offs of tracking WRs vs. playing individual sides and rolling your safety coverage:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/10/the-art-of-tracking-and-the-nfls-best-cornerbacks/

An interesting read.

I don't think that we'll see a lot of Revis following the opponent's best WR; could be instead that he
lines-up usually at RCB in order to make the QB to look to his right side, during which time the rolling
coverage would have confused him just long enough to allow the blind-side pressure to either force a bad throw, or sack him.

 

[mayoclinic]

From Reiss' chat today:

If I had to pick one storyline [from OTAs], it would be Vince Wilfork and how he looks on target to be there when it counts. I keep going back to the ruptured Achilles on Sept. 29 and thinking that nothing would have surprised me at that point in terms of Wilfork's availability. It is such a serious injury, and Wilfork is such a big man, that I wouldn't have been surprised if someone said 'that's a career-ending situation.' So to see him not only on the field, but today in an 11-on-11 drill where he was exploding out of his stance and applying pressure on the left side of the offensive line, that's significant to me. So we know a lot more today about Wilfork than we did three weeks ago. That's been my biggest takeaway.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50749/patriots-with-mike-reiss

And again:

I specifically watched [Wilfork] in the 11-on-11 drill (it's hard to miss him, really), and I did notice that he was moving well in exploding out of his stance (again, no contact or o-linemen leaning on him) while applying pressure to the left side of the offensive line. When the pads come on and there is hitting and big men bearing down on him, it's a whole new ballgame. But what I saw was 'the same old Vince' to me in this setting. I was surprised, to be honest. Like I said earlier, given the severity of the injury, I wouldn't have been shocked if that was a tough one for him to overcome.

I've been openly skeptical of Wilfork's ability to come back from his Achilles' injury at a meaningful level this year, if at all. While it's way too soon to come to any definitive conclusions based on limited practice without contact, this is certainly more than I expected at this point, and I will be thrilled if proven wrong. In the best case scenario, Wilfork+Easley at near full strength would be a very dominant interior combination, the likes of which we've never seen before under BB.

 

[mayoclinic]

Karen Guregian notes that there are already signs in OTAs of a more aggressive, attacking defense for 2014:

Whether it’s taking a page out of the Seahawks playbook, or simply now having the appropriate personnel, the Patriots appear primed to play defense with a different mindset.

It can be summed up in one word: attack.

With more teams adopting quick-tempo offenses and spread formations, and with Peyton Manning still being armed and dangerous in Denver, the Pats defense can’t go into the upcoming season playing on its heels, hoping to make plays.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick now has a few more toys at his disposal. He doesn’t have to be so conservative, having his defense sit back and wait for the other team to mess up. He can force the issue much more than he has in recent years.

While it’s early, even the players have noticed a bit of a difference in what they’re being asked to do.

“We’re starting to do more. They’re putting more on our plates as far as different schemes and different fronts,” linebacker Dont’a Hightower said following yesterday’s workout. “It’s a lot more fun now that we’re coming out and doing different things the offense hasn’t seen. It’s a lot of fun for us learning it, and going out and doing it.”

Having now taken in all three of the open practice sessions during OTAs, and viewed a bit of the dynamics with some of the new personnel added in — even if only in non-padded practices — it’s easy to get an idea how the goal may be accomplished down the road.

It starts with cornerback Darrelle Revis, who finally saw some action yesterday with Tom Brady throwing in his direction, and spreads from there. Ultimately, Revis and Brandon Browner will both be up at the line playing man coverage. They’ll disrupt timing routes. And Revis, of course, will pretty much shut down one side of the field. Already, that brings on more of an aggressive posture.

Now, add in linebackers Jamie Collins and Hightower, who will move around and be asked to blitz more, given the safety net that is Revis along with a much improved secondary.

“Any time you play aggressively, the ball’s going to come out quick,’’ linebacker Rob Ninkovich said yesterday, when asked about the possibility of attacking more given the additions of Revis and Browner. “So you have to have guys that are on top of people covering tight. In this league, if you’re going to try to beat people with the blitz, they’re going to try to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands as fast as possible. So you better be tight on them in coverage.”

Both Collins and Hightower look much more comfortable in their shoes at this point, which can only bode well. Collins, who flashed late as a star on the rise, now enters his second year while Hightower seemed to finally get it together at the end of last season after a rough stretch.

And we haven’t even seen what rookie defensive tackle Dominique Easley brings to the table. The way he can attack and get to the quarterback is what prompted the Patriots to pick him at No. 29, despite having blown out both ACLs during college.

We’ll see if all that eventually translates into a more aggressive and attacking defense when the bell rings in September.

As former Patriots great Troy Brown remarked when reached earlier in the week, you need a defense that can make a stop when the time comes.

“You have to have a defense that can stop somebody and get up and challenge. Nobody did that better last year than Seattle and they were as aggressive as you could be,” Brown said. “They reminded me of the old Patriots of ’01. They just hit people . . . and now especially, the way offenses are, you’ve got to be in attack mode. You can’t sit back and wait for the other team to make a mistake. You have to be aggressive.”

http://bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/new_england_patriots/2014/06/with_new_additions_patriots_look_to_attack

The original premise of the OP was exactly that - that the defense needed to get more aggressive, including more disruption in the secondary and more attacking up front. Though not everyone agreed with this premise, the offseason moves certainly seem consistent with that. We can only hope it plays out like that on the field.

 

[mayoclinic]

Going back to the OP, there were 4 main goals stated:

Here's my "blueprint" for evolving the Pats' D into one on a Seattle/SF/Carolina championship-caliber level.

1. Need a change of attitude and approach.

As Karen Guregian notes, "the Patriots appear primed to play defense with a different mindset. It can be summed up in one word: attack." That's a huge change of attitude and approach from past defenses. Rob Ninkovich talks about playing "aggressively". Troy Brown notes that "You can’t sit back and wait for the other team to make a mistake. You have to be aggressive.” All consistent with a move to a more aggressive and attacking defense, without completely abandoning BB's basic tenets of gap control and discipline.

2. Upgrade and add depth on DL.

Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly are back. At DE, Will Smith has been added and a developmental prospect in Zach Moore. The Pats flirted with signing Kevin Williams, and Quentin Groves is still a possibility. Most significantly, the Pats used their 1st round pick on Dominique Easley, one of the most aggressive and disruptive defenders in the draft.

3. Continue to get more mobile at LB.

Brandon Spikes was allowed to walk, and replaced as the #4 LB by James Anderson, a much more mobile and coverage-oriented player. I'd still like to see one more mobile LB added.

4. Go "Seattle" with big, physical DBs.

The team took this one literally with the Brandon Browner signing. The addition of Browner and Darrelle Revis transforms the back end of this defense. Aggressive press man coverage with disruption of timing routes. This is very consistent with Rob Ninkovich's observation that "“Any time you play aggressively, the ball’s going to come out quick, so you have to have guys that are on top of people covering tight. In this league, if you’re going to try to beat people with the blitz, they’re going to try to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands as fast as possible. So you better be tight on them in coverage.”

The Pats seem to have approached the offseason on defense with a very methodical plan to transform the defense to allow for more controlled aggression and attacking: (1) add Revis and Browner, which will create "disruption on the perimeter" (to use Guys Bradley's term); (2) add Dominique Easley, who, along with Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower will provide the ability to bring pressure from different schemes and directions (see post #33 above); (3) add quality depth with guys like Will Smith and James Anderson.

It will be fun to see how this plays out.

 

[mayoclinic]

An interesting read on what the Kevin Williams signing could mean for Seattle:

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/seaha...vin-williams-signing-could-mean-for-seattle/

What stands out for me is this:

According to Football Outsiders, Williams played 718 defensive snaps last season. Michael Bennett was the only Seahawks defensive lineman to play 600 defensive snaps a year ago. No lineman played more than 58 percent of Seattle’s defensive snaps.

“The rotation is key,” said Louis Riddick, a former NFL scout and ESPN analyst. “He won’t be nearly as effective without it at this point in his career, and he gives them size, length a veteran hungry for team success.”

Seattle had a dominant defensive line with no lineman participating in more than 58% of the defensive snaps. They had no single dominant player, but they had 7-8 very good players who they rotated to keep guys fresh and scheme pressure in different ways. Food for thought.

 

[mayoclinic]

Looking back through this thread, I came upon post #713, which referenced a January 24 Bleacher Report article my Pats' Propaganda's Mike Dussault:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1932903-3-changes-the-new-england-patriots-must-make-on-defense

Dussault noted nearly 5 months ago that since 2010 the Pats' D has had the worst 3rd down % in the NFL, and has given up the most plays over 20 yards. Egregious. Dussault focused on 3 areas that he thought needed to be improved:

1. The interior pass rush:

"The interior defensive line has the quickest line to the quarterback, and that's where the Patriots should focus—especially for their base defense, as nearly 50 percent of the big plays they've given up in the last four seasons have been on first down."

2. The sub rusher position:

"Generating a consistent pass rush for four quarters is a group effort, and it's clear that the Pats need to upgrade their defensive ends to become less reliant on Jones and Ninkovich."

3. Retaining Aqib Talib:

"They can't afford to go back to the kind of primary-zone defense that gets eaten alive every time they try to run it against the better quarterbacks. There are no elite defenses without an elite corner, and Talib is as close as the Pats have gotten to one since Ty Law."

So what have the Pats done to address these 3 concerns:

1. Upgraded Talib to Darelle Revis and added Brandon Browner. It's safe to say that the brain trust isn't trying to "go back to the kind of primary-zone defense that gets eaten alive every time they try to run it against the better quarterbacks".

2. Added an incredibly disruptive interior rusher in Dominique Easley. The return of Tommy Kelly will also help, and possibly Armond Armstead if he can ever get on the field. The Pats also looked at Kevin Williams, though they missed out on that one.

3. Added Easley and Will Smith. Quentin Groves could be an interesting depth signing if that happens. We should also see Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins blitzing much more this year.

The Pats are in much better shape "to generate a consistent pass rush for four quarters" via a group effort and to play aggressive coverage than they were 5 months ago.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Looking back through this thread, I came upon post #713, which referenced a January 24 Bleacher Report article my Pats' Propaganda's Mike Dussault:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1932903-3-changes-the-new-england-patriots-must-make-on-defense

Dussault noted nearly 5 months ago that since 2010 the Pats' D has had the worst 3rd down % in the NFL, and has given up the most plays over 20 yards. Egregious.

So the surprising (and, if you like, alarming) fact is that, despite the Pats' fantastic overall record, and despite the fact that their Head Coach is a defensive specialist, the Pats have been carried by their offense.

Why should that be? It's not that the top draft picks have been spent on offense -- in fact, I can't remember any high picks spent on the offense in that time with the exceptions of Solder and Vereen.

The obvious answer is that the Pats failed to adapt effectively to changing times. I'm not sure that that is true. Still, the facts are what they are and require some explanation.

 

[mayoclinic]

So the surprising (and, if you like, alarming) fact is that, despite the Pats' fantastic overall record, and despite the fact that their Head Coach is a defensive specialist, the Pats have been carried by their offense.

Why should that be? It's not that the top draft picks have been spent on offense -- in fact, I can't remember any high picks spent on the offense in that time with the exceptions of Solder and Vereen.

The obvious answer is that the Pats failed to adapt effectively to changing times. I'm not sure that that is true. Still, the facts are what they are and require some explanation.

The Pats have spent 5 1st or 2nd round picks on offense since 2010, including this year:

- Rob Gronkowski (2010, #42)
- Nate Solder (2011, #17)
- Shane Vereen (2011, #56)
- Aaron Dobson (2013, #59)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (2014, #62; obviously, hasn't had any effect yet)

Sebastian Vollmer was a 2nd round pick (#58 overall) in 2009.

During that time they've spent 9 1st or 2nd round picks on defense, including 4 1st round picks:

- Devin McCourty (2010, #27)
- Jermaine Cunningham (2010, #53)
- Brandon Spikes (2010, #62)
- Ras-I Dowling (2011, #33)
- Chandler Jones (2012, #21)
- Dont'a Hightower (2012, #25)
- Tavon Wilson (2012, #48)
- Jamie Collins (2013, #52)
- Dominique Easley (2014, #29; obviously, hasn't had any effect yet)

So there's been roughly a 2:1 spending ratio in favor of defense. Some of those picks have not contributed very much (Cunningham, Dowling, Wilson; add to that Ron Brace and Darius Butler in 2009 if you like). The defense also had considerably more ground to make up, and they didn't have a Brady to build around.

Some possible reasons include:

1. Failing to "adapt effectively to changing times". This might include sticking with a more reactive defensive philosophy, sticking to larger and less fast players, etc.

2. Failing to adopt a consistent and coherent approach and aggressively implement it.

3. Poor drafting. Ron Brace, Jermaine Cunningham and Tavon Wilson were all major reaches, none of whom have contributed anything significant. No defensive player drafted in the second round in the BB era has received a second contract to date; that includes Eugene Wilson (#36, 2003), Marquise Hill (#63, 2004), Terrance Wheatley (#62, 2008), Pat Chung (#34, 2009), Ron Brace (#40, 2009), Darius Butler (#41, 2009), Jermaine Cunningham (#53, 2010), Brandon Spikes (#62, 2010) and Ras-I Dowling (#33 2011). Eugene Wilson was probably the only one of those guys who might have merited a second contract. Tavon Wilson (#48, 2012) doesn't seem likely to break that trend, but hopefully Jamie Collins (#52, 2013) is likely to turn out differently, though it's still early. In contrast, Matt Light (#48 in 2001), Sebastian Vollmer (#58 in 2009) and Rob Gronkowski (#42 in 2010) all got sizable second contracts, and Deion Branch (#65 in 2002) got a fairly hefty offer while holding out.

4. Too much turnover. As a result of the above, there has been more turnover on defense than there has been on offense. Wilfork, Mayo, McCourty and Ninkovich have been the only starters to date to start 3 or more consecutive seasons.

Food for thought.

 

[mayoclinic]

A couple of tidbits from Reiss' Quick Hits this morning:

1. The Patriots didn’t lose out on free-agent defensive tackle Kevin Williams, who agreed to join the Seahawks on Thursday, because of money. In fact, Williams told ESPN.com NFL Nation Vikings reporter Ben Goessling that the Patriots actually offered a contract with greater earning potential than Seattle. That’s a surprise to me, and it might reflect some internal concern with 11-year veteran Tommy Kelly (coming back from a torn ACL) and first-year player Armond Armstead (missed 2013 season due to an infection and hasn’t been practicing the past two weeks). Also, first-round draft choice Dominique Easley is coming off a torn ACL, and stalwart veteran Vince Wilfork is coming back from a ruptured Achilles. The Patriots sometimes lure players to town for less money because of the appeal of playing with Tom Brady in a winning program, but this was a case where it went the other way, even with Williams’ former defensive line coach Brendan Daly now in New England. The Seahawks sit atop the NFL’s mountaintop right now.

2. Patriots 2012 first-round pick Dont’a Hightower, who is bigger than most linebackers at 6-foot-3 and 270 pounds, can sometimes seem out of place when chasing running backs downfield. He said as much Thursday, noting that organized team activities (a.k.a. passing camp) aren’t tailored to what he does best – getting physical when the pads come on. “I’m not a 7-on-7 [drills] person; I don’t like to chase [running back] Shane Vereen around.” So we took note during Thursday’s practice that Hightower was playing a bit more on the line of scrimmage, sometimes rushing off the right edge. When considering a starting linebacker trio of Jerod Mayo, Jamie Collins and Hightower in the base defense, I’ve previously projected Hightower to the middle in aBrandon Spikes-type downhill thumper role. But the Patriots coaches might see it differently, preferring to keep signal-caller Mayo in the middle, flanked by Collins and Hightower. That would give Hightower a chance to play on the line of scrimmage at times in an outside linebacker/defensive end-type role, and potentially rush the passer more. That could be best suited to his skill set, even though we haven’t seen Hightower do much of that the past two years.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...64058/quick-hit-thoughts-around-nfl-pats-184

Two areas to monitor closely in training camp.

 

[Mike the Brit]

The Pats have spent 5 1st or 2nd round picks on offense since 2010, including this year:

- Rob Gronkowski (2010, #42)
- Nate Solder (2011, #17)
- Shane Vereen (2011, #56)
- Aaron Dobson (2013, #59)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (2014, #62; obviously, hasn't had any effect yet)

Sebastian Vollmer was a 2nd round pick (#58 overall) in 2009.

During that time they've spent 9 1st or 2nd round picks on defense, including 4 1st round picks:

- Devin McCourty (2010, #27)
- Jermaine Cunningham (2010, #53)
- Brandon Spikes (2010, #62)
- Ras-I Dowling (2011, #33)
- Chandler Jones (2012, #21)
- Dont'a Hightower (2012, #25)
- Tavon Wilson (2012, #48)
- Jamie Collins (2013, #52)
- Dominique Easley (2014, #29; obviously, hasn't had any effect yet)

So there's been roughly a 2:1 spending ratio in favor of defense. Some of those picks have not contributed very much (Cunningham, Dowling, Wilson; add to that Ron Brace and Darius Butler in 2009 if you like). The defense also had considerably more ground to make up, and they didn't have a Brady to build around.

Some possible reasons include:

1. Failing to "adapt effectively to changing times". This might include sticking with a more reactive defensive philosophy, sticking to larger and less fast players, etc.

2. Failing to adopt a consistent and coherent approach and aggressively implement it.

3. Poor drafting. Ron Brace, Jermaine Cunningham and Tavon Wilson were all major reaches, none of whom have contributed anything significant. No defensive player drafted in the second round in the BB era has received a second contract to date; that includes Eugene Wilson (#36, 2003), Marquise Hill (#63, 2004), Terrance Wheatley (#62, 2008), Pat Chung (#34, 2009), Ron Brace (#40, 2009), Darius Butler (#41, 2009), Jermaine Cunningham (#53, 2010), Brandon Spikes (#62, 2010) and Ras-I Dowling (#33 2011). Eugene Wilson was probably the only one of those guys who might have merited a second contract. Tavon Wilson (#48, 2012) doesn't seem likely to break that trend, but hopefully Jamie Collins (#52, 2013) is likely to turn out differently, though it's still early. In contrast, Matt Light (#48 in 2001), Sebastian Vollmer (#58 in 2009) and Rob Gronkowski (#42 in 2010) all got sizable second contracts, and Deion Branch (#65 in 2002) got a fairly hefty offer while holding out.

4. Too much turnover. As a result of the above, there has been more turnover on defense than there has been on offense. Wilfork, Mayo, McCourty and Ninkovich have been the only starters to date to start 3 or more consecutive seasons.

Food for thought.

First, thanks so much. It's fantastic to have my vague impressions confronted with (and to an extent confirmed by) solid facts. The figures for high draft picks are even more skewed if you only take the first round -- 4 to 1.

I've posted this article before to the usual chorus of catcalls that confront anything that seem to show that BB is less than perfect (I'm thinking particularly of section 3). In fact, it seems to me to do about as good a job statistically as it's possible to do and you can spin it either way -- it shows what a fantastic organization BB runs if it can do as well as it does without being better than average at drafting.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/2/25/5430150/nfl-draft-history-worst-picks

So I think the less-than-stellar-drafting explanation has some force.

Another possible explanation has to do with coaching. As we know, BB is incredibly conservative about coaching. He places a huge premium on having a tight, coherent group, promotes from within (by and large -- this off season is unusual). The only coaches I can remember him moving on rather than leaving of their own accord were defensive coaches (Dean Pees, Pepper -- and a DB coach whose name I forget but probably shouldn't count because he was only there for a season). But, of course, Pees won a Superbowl as a DC after leaving, so I think we can assume that he is a pretty good coach with the right players. And everyone who has been in the organization tells us that everything goes back to BB.

Pats-haters who yearn for the good times to come to an end may say that this all points to the Pats having lucked out on a quarterback 14 years ago, that he's responsible for their success and that it will disappear when he retires. Apart from deserving the credit for making Brady Brady, that ignores the 2008 season (still burns me -- if only they had got into the playoffs that year, they would have been a match for anyone).

So yes, I think you have to point the finger at the greatest head coach in the NFL. As I see it, BB is incredible at playing to his strengths. He is obsessive, compulsive and detail-oriented. He said it himself in tribute to Chuck Noll -- his greatness lay in running a consistent organization. Yet BB also knows that the most important thing in football is to keep your opponents off balance -- it's poker, not chess.

How he does those two things together is what makes watching him in action such a fascinating privilege.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't really want to turn this thread into another second-guessing of BB. There's plenty of threads for that. Suffice it to say that he has many, many strengths, his weaknesses are sometimes the flip side of those strengths, and he's made some mistakes and missed some opportunities. No one's perfect. But he's still the best of the best, certainly as a coach, and up there as a GM and talent evaluator. The defense is loaded with talent that he's drafted, from Wilfork (2004), Mayo (2008), McCourty (2010), Jones (2012), Hightower (2012), Dennard (2012), Collins (2013), Ryan (2013) and Easley (2014). That's 9 starting-caliber players. Not many teams have drafted as much defensive talent, especially since 2010.

 

[Mike the Brit]

I don't really want to turn this thread into another second-guessing of BB.

Agreed!

So I did a little bit of scientifically flawed research. I looked at the ranking of defenses over the last 5 years on Pro Football Reference. I gave 10 points for having the best defense down to 1 point for the 10th. Even that was interesting, though.

First, no team had a top-10 defense in all 5 seasons. Three had top-10 defenses in 4 seasons out of 5: 49ers, Bengals and Patriots.

The top teams in order were:

1 49ers: 33 points (max=50)

2= Steelers: 25 points

2= Ravens: 25 points

4 Seahawks 24 points

5= Jets 15 points

5= Bengals 15 points

7 Patriots 12 points

Some idea of the variation. Neither the Steelers nor the Ravens had top-10 defenses this year. The Jets had the best defense 5 years ago but have been out of the top 10 for the last 3 years. Over the last three years, the 9ers (3rd, 2nd, 2nd) and Seahawks (1st, 1st, 7th) have been way out ahead.

I think that that -- even admitting the crudeness of the numbers -- gives some food for thought.

 

[mayoclinic]

Oliver Thomas looks at what Will Smith might potentially contribute:

http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014...g-sub-package-power-to-patriots-defense.html

 

[captain stone]

3. Poor drafting. Ron Brace, Jermaine Cunningham and Tavon Wilson were all major reaches, none of whom have contributed anything significant. No defensive player drafted in the second round in the BB era has received a second contract to date; that includes Eugene Wilson (#36, 2003), Marquise Hill (#63, 2004), Terrance Wheatley (#62, 2008), Pat Chung (#34, 2009), Ron Brace (#40, 2009), Darius Butler (#41, 2009), Jermaine Cunningham (#53, 2010), Brandon Spikes (#62, 2010) and Ras-I Dowling (#33 2011). Eugene Wilson was probably the only one of those guys who might have merited a second contract. Tavon Wilson (#48, 2012) doesn't seem likely to break that trend, but hopefully Jamie Collins (#52, 2013) is likely to turn out differently, though it's still early. In contrast, Matt Light (#48 in 2001), Sebastian Vollmer (#58 in 2009) and Rob Gronkowski (#42 in 2010) all got sizable second contracts, and Deion Branch (#65 in 2002) got a fairly hefty offer while holding out...

Bingo. Don't forget Chicken Legs Crable (when Cliff Avril was still available) and (eventually) Jake
the Fake Bequette to the stable of Bill's many draft busts on defense.

 

[mayoclinic]

Bingo. Don't forget Chicken Legs Crable (when Cliff Avril was still available) and (eventually) Jake the Fake Bequette to the stable of Bill's many draft busts on defense.

Every team misses out on prospects and makes mistakes. The Pats have added Devin McCourty, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Alfonzo Dennard, Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan and Dominique Easley since 2010. That's 7 really good defensive players to build around, all while drafting from the back end of each round. They've moved up aggressively, traded back, and grabbed some talent that slipped further than it should have. I think that McCourty, Jones, Collins and hopefully Easley will be "foundational" players that are long term cornerstones of the defense; Hightower and Ryan could possibly get there as well, though it's too early to tell.

Not many other teams have added that kind of defensive talent, and some of those that have have benefitted from better draft position and more draft picks:

- St. Louis: Robert Quinn (1st round, #14 overall, 2011), Michael Brockers (1st round, #14 overall, 2012), Janorris Jenkins (2nd round, #39 overall, 2012), Trumaine Johnson (3rd round, #65 overall, 2012), Alec Ogletree (1st round, #30 overall, 2013), Aaron Donald (1st round, #13 overall, 2014), Lamarcus Joyner (2nd round, #41 overall, 2014). That's 3 top-15 picks and 6 top-41 picks. The Rams have added a ton of talent on defense, but they've had the picks to do it, and they haven't yet fielded a top 5 defense.

- Seattle: Earl Thomas (1st round, #14 overall, 2010), Kam Chancellor (4th round, #133 overall, 2010) KJ Wright (4th round, #99 overall, 2011), Richard Sherman (5th round, #154 overall, 2011), Bruce Irvin (1st round, #15 overall, 2012), Bobby Wagner (2nd round, #47, 2012). Even though the Seahawks did some masterful day 3 drafting, they used 2 top-15 picks on defense in a 3 year period.

During that period the Baltimore Ravens with Ozzie Newsome drafted Sergio Kindle (2nd round, 2010), Terrance Cody (2nd round, 2010), Jimmy Smith (1st round, 2011), Courtney Upshaw (2nd round, 2012), Matt Elam (1st round, 2013) and Arthur Brown (2nd round (2013), in addition to 2 2014 early picks (CJ Mosely 1st round and Timmy Jernigan 2nd round). Not one of those guys has emerged as a clear impact player so far, and at least a couple were busts. And before drafting Ryan Shazier (1st round) and Stephon Tuitt (2nd round) this year, the Pittsburgh Stelelers had drafted Jason Worilds (2nd round, 2010), Cameron Heyward (1st round, 2011), Sean Spence (3rd round, 2012) and Jarvis Jones (1st round, 2013), with only Worilds looking like a stud (and that only after 3 years of fairly mundane play).

Sure, the Pats have had some misses and made some mistakes. But they've built the foundation of what should be a really fearsome defense, and there's been some damn fine drafting in that period, IMHO. I personally consider Jones, Dennard, Collins, Ryan and Easley to potentially be among the best defensive picks of their respective drafts.

 

[mayoclinic]

Oliver Thomas of NE Patriots' Draft looks in detail at James Anderson:

http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014...ning-patriots-linebacker-james-anderson.html

I think that Thomas hits the nail on the head when he discusses the potential for Anderson's coverage ability on 3rd down to potentially allow Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower to be freed up as sub rushers in those situations. That alone could potentially transform the defense on 3rd down.

 

[captain stone]

Yeah, as long as most everyone stays relatively healthy, I will be very disappointed if this defense
does not improve, significantly, on 3rd downs to at least a middle-of-the-pack ranking.