My Blueprint for the Defense

[ctpatsfan77]

Right, but if you made the NLTBE incentives games active, % of defensive snaps played, etc...things he would meet IF he were healthy, then that would protect the team and lower his 2014 cap hit.

The one downside is that any NLTBE incentives that are reached then become salary cap hits that have to be either paid in 2014 or pulled off the 2015 cap.

 

[mayoclinic]

I see. I'd think getting some of those cap hits - Mack and Talib in particular - would require more extreme backloading of guaranteed money than the Pats usually do with free agents.

Mack is in line for the biggest center deal in the NFL so we'd have to do what Carolina did and really make up for that 4.6 in subsequent years. Same with Talib, he can do better than 5.0 so we'd have to make the de
I don't think I'm backloadinal look good with guarantees. Rather pay him more now and less later than the other way around given the question marks.

I don't think I'm backloading any more than the Pats have done in general:

- Gronk: 6 year / $54M deal, $8M signing bonus, $13.17M guaranteed, AAV $9M/year, cap hit in 1st year (2012): $2,660,000.
- AHern: 7 year / $39.5M deal, $12.5M signing bonus, AAV $5.6M/year, cap hit in first year: $3,194,000.
- Mankins: 6 year / $51M deal, $20M signing bonus, $30M guaranteed, AAV $8.5M/year, cap hit in 1st year (2011): $4,250,000
- Wilfork: 5 year / $40.045M deal, $18M signing bonus, $25M guaranteed, AAV just over $8M/year, cap hit in 1st year (2010): $4,600,000
- Mayo: 7 year / $49.85M deal, $6M signing bonus, $25M guaranteed, AAV just over $7M/year, cap hit in 1st year (2011): $3,800,000.
- Adalius Thomas: 5 year / $35.04M deal, $12M signing bonus, AAV just over $7M/year, cap hit in first year (2007): $3,406,720.

So I don't think it would be out of the norm to sign Mack to a contract similar to that of Ryan Kalil (in the Logan Mankins range) with a 1st year cap hit of around $5M. I don't think it would be out of the norm to sign Aqib Talib to a 3-4 year contract with an AAV of around $7M and have a 1st year cap hit of $5M (it could be lower). I don't think it would be out of the norm to sign Linval Joseph to a contract around 5/$25 or 4/$24 and have a 1st year cap hit of $4M. Those would be "normal" contracts, not excessively backloaded ones.

 

[kennyb]

I wonder if a one year rental of Kevin Williams would make sense. Is he still a high caliber player? I'd rather have him for 3-4M than an injured Wilfork for 7.5M if he's still effective.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think I'm backloading any more than the Pats have done in general:

- Gronk: 6 year / $54M deal, $8M signing bonus, $13.17M guaranteed, AAV $9M/year, cap hit in 1st year (2012): $2,660,000.
- AHern: 7 year / $39.5M deal, $12.5M signing bonus, AAV $5.6M/year, cap hit in first year: $3,194,000.
- Mankins: 6 year / $51M deal, $20M signing bonus, $30M guaranteed, AAV $8.5M/year, cap hit in 1st year (2011): $4,250,000
- Wilfork: 5 year / $40.045M deal, $18M signing bonus, $25M guaranteed, AAV just over $8M/year, cap hit in 1st year (2010): $4,600,000
- Mayo: 7 year / $49.85M deal, $6M signing bonus, $25M guaranteed, AAV just over $7M/year, cap hit in 1st year (2011): $3,800,000.
- Adalius Thomas: 5 year / $35.04M deal, $12M signing bonus, AAV just over $7M/year, cap hit in first year (2007): $3,406,720.

So I don't think it would be out of the norm to sign Mack to a contract similar to that of Ryan Kalil (in the Logan Mankins range) with a 1st year cap hit of around $5M. I don't think it would be out of the norm to sign Aqib Talib to a 3-4 year contract with an AAV of around $7M and have a 1st year cap hit of $5M (it could be lower). I don't think it would be out of the norm to sign Linval Joseph to a contract around 5/$25 or 4/$24 and have a 1st year cap hit of $4M. Those would be "normal" contracts, not excessively backloaded ones.

I wonder if a one year rental of Kevin Williams would make sense. Is he still a high caliber player? I'd rather have him for 3-4M than an injured Wilfork for 7.5M if he's still effective.

That's quite possible, particularly has the Pats have just hired his DL coach. The thing most going against it is that they already have Tommy Kelly under contract, and they'd essentially be replacing Kelly with Williams, not Wilfork.

The problem that my proposal has, IMHO, is not so much the cap hit, as the number of significant long term contracts involved. Besides Brady, the Pats have given significant contracts (> $30M total, or greater than $5M AAV) to Adalius Thomas (2007), Randy Moss (2008), Logan Mankins (2011), Jerod Mayo (2011), Rob Gronkowski (2012) and Aaron Hernandez (2012). In 2011 they gave Manings $8.5M/year AAV and Mayo $7M/year AAV; the double-dipped at long term contracts for the TEs in 2012. But my proposal has significant multi-year contracts for Alex Mack (about $8M/year AAV), Aqib Talib (about $7M/year AAV), Linval Joseph (about $5M/year AAV) plus a long term extension for McCourty ($6-7</year AAV estimate). That's a lot of big contracts to take on in one year, 2 of them for players outside of the organization. That's probably not very likely.

 

[manxman2601]

It's suicidal because the team would be committing more money to a player who is extremely unlikely to be able to play at a meaningful level in 2014, and who is also unlikely to ever regain any semblance of his all pro form. Furthermore, in doing so they will cloud their long term planning at the DT position and put themselves 1-2+ years behind the 8 ball in moving forward.

I understand that Wilfork is a proud man, and that he doesn't want his career to end on his note. But even he admits that he has no idea if he can physically recover or not:



Patriots' Vince Wilfork: 'I cant leave the game like this' - ESPN

No one knows for sure whether Wilfork can come back, but medically the odds are against him regaining his former explosiveness and power.

If no-one knows, it can hardly be suicidal to reconsider keeping Wilfork.

 

[kennyb]

If no-one knows, it can hardly be suicidal to reconsider keeping Wilfork.

He didn't say it was. He said it'd be suicidal to GUARANTEE HIS SALARY. That's not "consider keeping him".

"Wilfork may never play again, so let's do the smart thing and give him an 8M signing bonus...then IF he can't play, we'll have 8M more dead money to absorb. What's the risk?" That's some real brain damage right there.

 

[mayoclinic]

If no-one knows, it can hardly be suicidal to reconsider keeping Wilfork.

Are you (a) serious, (b) playing the devil's advocate, or (c) annoying me just for the fun of it? I can't tell, and all 3 are perfectly reasonable motives for your statement.

"Suicidal" may be a bit of a stretch, but it is certainly foolhardy to commit long term money on something that is a major uncertainty. Every contract has risk involved, but the risk-reward calculus in this case would be very strong skewed in one direction. If the Pats give Wilfork an extension that commits more money to him and he can't come back, it's a clear case of caveat emptor.

 

[stelfans]

I know this is all fantasy but i have a hard time believing, even in a fantasy world, that wilfork wont be back.

I know one thing for sure, he will try to and when and if they decide he cant help us that much it will be too late to sign anyone else, wont it? So imo we either extend him or keep him as is. But we'll see.

 

[Sfpat]

Linval Joseph is just as good as Wilfork is these days, who was mediocre at the beginning of the year and uninspiring for most of 2012. Not sure what you're talking about.

I've never understood the fascination with Vince. He's a good dude sure. And he's been one of hte best run stopping DT in the league in the past, but that's only half the game (at best if you look at ratios these days). And outside of two or three games, he's been non existent in the other half of the game since 2008. And the results reflect that mediocrity. What has he done to deserve some kind of financial carte blanche? Every defense he's led has been mediocre at best and a dumpster fire at worst.

Some probably still remember him almost single handily beating Baltimore in the 2011 AFCCG. He was a dominant pass rusher that day.

 

[ashley]

I think we need an influx of athleticism and I have enjoyed reading lately a lot of the posts on here about how we can improve the defense next year. I would say we need:

1- More speed and athleticism on the defensive line. Starting with the end position. What if Dee Ford is there at 29, I think he would make a great addition.
2- A bigger more intimidating safety. Someone like Calvin Pryor I think would be a great addition. I know we just spent two high draft picks on safeties but if he is there at number 29, it has got to be tempting to take him.

 

[Danger Zone]

I think we need an influx of athleticism and I have enjoyed reading lately a lot of the posts on here about how we can improve the defense next year. I would say we need:

1- More speed and athleticism on the defensive line. Starting with the end position. What if Dee Ford is there at 29, I think he would make a great addition.
2- A bigger more intimidating safety. Someone like Calvin Pryor I think would be a great addition. I know we just spent two high draft picks on safeties but if he is there at number 29, it has got to be tempting to take him.

You say "if he is still there at 29" twice..

I will continue to hold onto the theory that the Patriots drafting in the worst average position of any other team in the NFL for the past thirteen+ years has much more detrimental an affect on who we draft than people give credence for.

 

[ashley]

You say "if he is still there at 29" twice..

I will continue to hold onto the theory that the Patriots drafting in the worst average position of any other team in the NFL for the past thirteen+ years has much more detrimental an affect on who we draft than people give credence for.

Sorry for the confusion, If Dee Ford or Calvin Pryor are both available at 29, who do you take? I think it's a tough call because I think both can really help our defense.

 

[Danger Zone]

Sorry for the confusion, If Dee Ford or Calvin Pryor are both available at 29, who do you take? I think it's a tough call because I think both can really help our defense.

No confusion. I was just quoting you to make my point of how far down we pick (year after year after year)

Its hard to put together a good roster when 28 players come off the board every round before you get to choose yours.

 

[Kontradiction]

Sorry for the confusion, If Dee Ford or Calvin Pryor are both available at 29, who do you take? I think it's a tough call because I think both can really help our defense.

Pryor, no doubt. The draft is plenty deep at DL. Not so much at S.

 

[manxman2601]

Pryor, no doubt. The draft is plenty deep at DL. Not so much at S.

Yes but our roster is deep at safety, not so much at DE.

Personally I wouldn't take either position in the first round.

 

[mayoclinic]

Sorry for the confusion, If Dee Ford or Calvin Pryor are both available at 29, who do you take? I think it's a tough call because I think both can really help our defense.

No hesitation for me: I take Calvin Pryor. There are a number of guys I like better than Dee Ford.

A rough list of my preferred defensive players, pre-Combine:

Defensive guys who I would take at 29:

Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida St.
Trent Murphy, DE, Stanford
Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

Defensive guys who I would take with an early 2nd:

Christian Jones, LB, Florida St.
Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU
Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio St. (probably)
Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame

Defensive guys who I would take at 62:

Deone Buchannon, S, Washington St.
Marcus Smith, DE/OLB, Louisville
Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska
Stephon Tuitt, DE/DT, Notre Dame
Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon St.
Possible: Lamarcus Joyner, DB, Florida St; Kyle Fuller, DB, Virginia Tech; Louichez Purifoy, CB, Florida; Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St.

Defensive guys who I would take at 93:

Jeremiah Attaochu, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech
Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
Aaron Lynch, DE, USF
Trevor Reilly, DE/OLB, Utah
Ego Ferguson, DT, LSU
Ed Reynolds, S, Stanford

 

[manxman2601]

No hesitation for me: I take Calvin Pryor. There are a number of guys I like better than Dee Ford.

A rough list of my preferred defensive players, pre-Combine:

Defensive guys who I would take at 29:

Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida St.
Trent Murphy, DE, Stanford
Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

Defensive guys who I would take with an early 2nd:

Christian Jones, LB, Florida St.
Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU
Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio St. (probably)
Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame

Defensive guys who I would take at 62:

Deone Buchannon, S, Washington St.
Marcus Smith, DE/OLB, Louisville
Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska
Stephon Tuitt, DE/DT, Notre Dame
Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon St.
Possible: Lamarcus Joyner, DB, Florida St; Kyle Fuller, DB, Virginia Tech; Louichez Purifoy, CB, Florida; Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St.

Defensive guys who I would take at 93:

Jeremiah Attaochu, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech
Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
Aaron Lynch, DE, USF
Trevor Reilly, DE/OLB, Utah
Ego Ferguson, DT, LSU
Ed Reynolds, S, Stanford

No Jimmie Ward?

 

[ashley]

Yes but our roster is deep at safety, not so much at DE.

Personally I wouldn't take either position in the first round.

I enjoy reading your posts and think your very knowledgeable and know you think tight end is a bigger priority but if Ebron and Amaro are gone when we pick at 29, do you take offensive line then with the first pick or go defensive tackle?

I still think we have to get better at safety and defensive line.

 

[ashley]

No hesitation for me: I take Calvin Pryor. There are a number of guys I like better than Dee Ford.

A rough list of my preferred defensive players, pre-Combine:

Defensive guys who I would take at 29:

Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida St.
Trent Murphy, DE, Stanford
Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

Defensive guys who I would take with an early 2nd:

Christian Jones, LB, Florida St.
Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU
Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio St. (probably)
Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame

Defensive guys who I would take at 62:

Deone Buchannon, S, Washington St.
Marcus Smith, DE/OLB, Louisville
Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska
Stephon Tuitt, DE/DT, Notre Dame
Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon St.
Possible: Lamarcus Joyner, DB, Florida St; Kyle Fuller, DB, Virginia Tech; Louichez Purifoy, CB, Florida; Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St.

Defensive guys who I would take at 93:

Jeremiah Attaochu, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech
Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
Aaron Lynch, DE, USF
Trevor Reilly, DE/OLB, Utah
Ego Ferguson, DT, LSU
Ed Reynolds, S, Stanford

I have been reading that because of Trent Murphy having a sub par Senior Bowl that he might be slipping, if that's the case I wonder if there is any way he falls to us in the 2nd round?

 

[Kontradiction]

Yes but our roster is deep at safety, not so much at DE.

Personally I wouldn't take either position in the first round.

How deep is it really, though? Gregory could easily be a cap casualty and is someone you ideally want as a back-up. Tavon has become a STer more than a safety lately and Harmon only saw limited snaps. Safety may not be as deep as you think and there really isn't a whole lot of physicality at that position with what we have now. If you can get a thumper at SS early on, you do it because you still fill needs at DT and DE later on in the draft.