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My #21 Pick Analysis

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by drew4008, Jan 17, 2006.

  1. drew4008

    drew4008 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Well.. the Pats are picking alot earlier than in the last few years, now at #21, the earliest spot a playoff team can have.

    The needs as I see them:

    * = player most likely gone before our pick

    1a. DB (whether it be CB or safety)

    Top Names: Michael Huff*, Jimmy Williams*, Tye Hill, Antonio Cromartie, Ko Simpson, Charles Gordon

    1b. WR

    Top Names: Santonio Holmes, Chad Jackson, Derek Hagan

    1c. LB (OLB or ILB)

    Top Names: A.J Hawk*, Chad Greenway*, DeMeco Ryans*, Thomas Howard, Bobby Carpenter

    2. RB

    Top Names: Reggie Bush*, LenDale White*, DeAngelo Williams*, Laurence Maroney

    3. OL

    Top Names: D'Brickashaw Ferguson*, Eric Winston*, Marcus McNeill*, Jon Scott, Winston Justice, Max Jean-Gilles

    I think any one of those 3 top needs could be addressed in the first round, and much of it is subject to what happens in free agency.

    WR - If David Givens walks, the Patriots are left with Deion Branch, an aging Troy Brown, Tim Dwight, Andre Davis (all 3 being FAs this year as well), and Bethel Johnson (who will likely be cut before next season). There are 3 first round WRs this year, all of different styles believe it or not. I'm not sure what we'd look for, but Holmes is the speedster who also runs crisp routes, Hagan is the bigger possession guy who is also a good route runner, and Jackson is more of the underneath guy who will get you 6 or 7 receptions a game for not the highest average, but can find the holes in the coverage. All 3 could go as high as # 21, but Holmes is the # 1 receiver on most boards, and would likely be our biggest target. I don't see us taking Hagan since he kind of fits the mold of Givens, and if we let Givens walk, why would he take the same player over again when we had the chance to re-sign Givens?

    DB - We need insurance for Rodney, whether he comes back, or how he does when he comes back (not to mention he'll be 34), plus the Patriots don't have a proven #1 corner yet. Samuel and Hobbs both look promising, plus they have some others like Gay, Chad Scott if he returns, Hank Poteat, and the most likely scenario IF they wanted to strenthen the CB position would be to sign a big name FA. There also doesn't seem to be a safety worth the draft slot we are in, so DB is a tricky scenario at #21 as of right now.

    LB - Vrabel and Bruschi look to be solidified on the inside, and both have a few good years left in them, plus Beisel is there for backup, and we can't forget Ryan Claridge from last year's draft. Colvin has the ROLB spot locked up outside of Seymour, and that shouldn't be a concern unless another injury comes up. McGinest is getting older and more of a situational player as he regresses, but is definitely worthy of a starting position on this defense for at least this year. McGinest may not even stay with the Pats as hard as that is to believe, as he is due a crapload of money, but I'm going to assume he'll do everything to retire a Pat. The ILBs for our system usually take awhile to get accustomed to the system, so we'll see how Claridge, Beisel and likely another draft pick do while Bruschi and Vrabel continue, so don't expect an ILB at # 21, IMO. At OLB though, the Pats aren't as deep, and could consider someone to play fairly often and let McGinest sit more, and/or let them sit until they're ready to take over for Willie. OLB could very well be taken first round, as we know how much BB values this key position, but there really isn't anyone there at this point again, much like the safety position.

    RB - Corey Dillon is getting older and slower, yet he is due lots of money, and the cap hit to cut him would make the move undoable. I wouldn't think the Pats would keep Dillon's salary plus a top RB's salary, so this pick is unlikely unless someone fell that we couldn't resist on. I'm guessing Dillon will be adequate for at least a year or two more, particularly with improved OL play, and Belichick will keep him as our feature RB. Of course I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility though...

    So, in conslusion I see us doing one of the following scenarios:

    1) Since we have an abundance of picks, trade up for a top DB such as Huff, Williams, or even Hill OR a top LB such as Hawk or Greenway.

    2) Trade down and draft a second tier LB like Jackson, Hodge, Howard, or Carpenter OR a second tier DB like Bing, Youboty, or Minter.

    3) And if we stand pat, the top names I see us taking are: Santonio Holmes, DeMeco Ryans, Antonio Cromartie, Ko Simpson or Tye Hill.

    Take it for what it's worth...
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2006

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