My 2015 Offseason plan for the Super Bowl Champions New England Patriots

[Miguel]

How much would be Connolly's 2015 cap number?

 

[Miguel]

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1508 now incorporates some of Ken's suggestions.

 

[mgteich]

I really like Miguel's plan.

As he indicates some of the numbers might be a little high, others a little low. However, there is $1.8M of money for free agency.

I am a big fan of bring back Branch and Casillas.

NITPICKS AND COMMENTS
1) I don't see the reason for having such a high 2015 Revis cap hit. I would reduce the 2015 salary to $1M, and eliminate his 2015 roster bonus, adding $2.75M to the savings. I would add $500K to his 2017 salary to make up for the lost 2015 bonus. This preserves Miguel's AAV totals.
2) I would sign Connolly. The 2015 cost might be $2.51M, for a net cost of $2M.
3) I would not cut Dennard until well into Training Camp. The cost is $1M.
4) The net of the above would be almost cap neutral, actual under $300K more, so the free agency pool would be reduced to $1.5. Add a Browner restructure (see below) and the free agency pool is $3.4M

OTHER RESTRUCTURES
As Miguel mentions, there is the possibility of other restructures.

5) I think that Browner's could come before March 10th since a bonus is due, hopefully with an extension. I would move his roster bonus and $900K of his salary to a bonus, saving $1.9M in the 2015 cap. Savings might be a bit more if an extension is signed.
6) Miguel mentioned Brady and Vollmer. There also could be restructures to Gronk's contract and to Arrington's. I would prefer to extend Arrington.

THE TOP FREE AGENCY PRIORITY
7) We very much need a 3rd down RB. The $1.5 and Browner's restructure/extension savings of $1.9M should provide enough. Even Vereen would likely not cost $3.4 in year one cap hit. My guess is that $2M might be enough for this purpose.

THE TOP DRAFT PRIORITIES
8) Under Miguel's plan, even as modified, IMHO our top draft needs are OG, OG, TE, DT, DE and RB.

==================
BOTTOM LINE
I have added Connolly and added back Dennard (at least until camp). I did Browner's restructure/extension early to add money to the free agency pot. $3.4M is a bit thin. We do need to pick up a 3rd down running back and sign our normal set of JAG's and camp fodder.

If new opportunities develop, we have restructures to do, for an additional $10M. However, that probably will not be necessary. IMHO, Belichick will look for upgrades and bring in JAG's for competition. But our needs our met, except for the need for young talent at OG which will come in the draft.
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UNFORTUNATELY
For as great as Miguel is with the cap, he has not been great in predicting what Belichick will do in free agency.

 

[mgteich]

How much would be Connolly's 2015 cap number?

$2.51M.

 

[mgteich]

Folks clamoring for us to re-sign Ben Vereen need to be specific on their solution is to the cap impact.

Restructure Browner, saving $1.9M. Sign Vereen to contract for a contract with a $2.5M first year cap hit, perhaps with salaries of $1M, $2M, $3M with a $4.5M dollar bonus.

The cap effect of having Vereen instead of Gray is approximately $2M in 2015 cap room. The Browner restructure brings in $1.9M. An extension would save even more.

Personally, I would rather sign Connolly, and leave the signing of a 3rd down RB to free agency. Vereen needs to understand what the market is.

 

[mgteich]

$2.51M.

CONNOLLY
2/$6M
salaries: $1M, $2M
signing bonus: $3M
2015 cap hit $2.5M
net cost to add: $2M

He might accept 2/$5M including a $2M bonus, for a 2015 net cap add of $1.5M.
====
We have no 2015 starter. If we re-sign Connolly, he would be the presumptive starter. His signing would NOT change our draft strategy. We need to draft guards early and often. Even better would be a LT/LG.

This cost is reasonable for someone who can certainly be the game Day interior line backup, if there are two other starting quality guards.

 

[mgteich]

My 2015 Offseason plan for the Super Bowl Champions New England Patriots

Miguel Benzan

One fan's offseason plan for the defending Super Bowl champions

Continue reading...

We now have a base case for discussing future decisions and actions.

 

[patfanken]

Great job MG and Miguel. Here is my problem.

I love all the moves you made and they make eminent sense. However I'm not sure I can live with having only $1.8MM for FA's So here's my question. How inviolate is that roughly $8MM you have listed under various "cushion" funds?

I'd be a lot more comfortable if we had around $4-6MM available to at least have the option of signing one upper mid-level quality veteran FA. I'm not sure we'd have to use it, but it would be nice to have incase an opportunity arose. I'm sure by June, there will be a lot of very interesting names floating around that could be had in that price range.

 

[Miguel]

1) I don't see the reason for having such a high 2015 Revis cap hit. I would reduce the 2015 salary to $1M, and eliminate his 2015 roster bonus, adding $2.75M to the savings. I would add $500K to his 2017 salary to make up for the lost 2015 bonus. This preserves Miguel's AAV totals.

That would be $3.5 million in savings. 2015 salary under my scenario is $4 million.
Patriots' modus operandi is to have 46-man active roster bonuses in their contracts. Revis has one now. Doubt that Patriots will go away from that.

 

[Miguel]

For as great as Miguel is with the cap, he has not been great in predicting what Belichick will do in free agency.

Who has been?

 

[Miguel]

Great job MG and Miguel. Here is my problem.

I love all the moves you made and they make eminent sense. However I'm not sure I can live with having only $1.8MM for FA's So here's my question. How inviolate is that roughly $8MM you have listed under various "cushion" funds?

LOL. There was a reason why I did not include the total in the beginning. Knew people would focus on the free agency number even though I added disclaimers. The cushions are needed in September. Things happen between March and then that could and change the cushion amount.

 

[patfanken]

LOL. There was a reason why I did not include the total in the beginning. Knew people would focus on the free agency number even though I added disclaimers. The cushions are needed in September. Things happen between March and then that could and change the cushion amount.

Fair enough. If we are honest, if we can add just 3 or 4 quality draft picks and re-sign most of our own FA's we will be well ahead of most of the teams in the league, even if we aren't able to add what most would call a significant veteran FA.

What I think most people fail to recognize is that in a league filled with constant roster movement, CONTINUITY is a powerful advantage. We see clearly in the stability of our coaching, systems, and language. The same is true with the players. The more they play together the better they will play.

 

[Miguel]

Subtract $581,470 from the Patriots cap space number. The first LTBE/NTLBE adjustment is now showing up on the NFLPA site - https://nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report. Was projecting negative adjustment of $4,562,500. Actual number is $5,143,970

 

[mgteich]

That would be $3.5 million in savings. 2015 salary under my scenario is $4 million.
Patriots' modus operandi is to have 46-man active roster bonuses in their contracts. Revis has one now. Doubt that Patriots will go away from that.

I guess I should be clearer and have my number more accurate.

I was not suggesting reducing his compensation by $3.5M. I would add the money to his bonus. Let's say that I add the roster bonus to his signing bonus also. So, $3.5M would be added to his signing bonus for an additional savings of $2.625M. As it is with restructures, I am suggesting the same compensation but moving more to the signing bonus.

In this scenario, 875K would be added to the cap hits in Years 2 thru 4.

I apologize for being unclear.

 

[mgteich]

Who has been?

 

[mgteich]

Great job MG and Miguel. Here is my problem.

I love all the moves you made and they make eminent sense. However I'm not sure I can live with having only $1.8MM for FA's So here's my question. How inviolate is that roughly $8MM you have listed under various "cushion" funds?

I'd be a lot more comfortable if we had around $4-6MM available to at least have the option of signing one upper mid-level quality veteran FA. I'm not sure we'd have to use it, but it would be nice to have incase an opportunity arose. I'm sure by June, there will be a lot of very interesting names floating around that could be had in that price range.

I have $3.4M available after signing Connolly and restructuring Browner. Considering all the players signed in Miguel's scenario, I think that this is quite good, enough to sign one mid-level free agent, presumably a 3rd down running back, although a DT is certainly possible.

1) Miguel has indicated that the cushion might be a bit high. It is always better to estimate high. After all, any unspent money rolls over into next year or is used up to pay for a bonus on an extension.

2) As Miguel indicated, if more free agent money is needed, another restructure can be made to Brady or Vollmer. A Brady restructure quickly produces $4.666M in cap money. In addition, contracts for Gronkowski and Arrington could be restructured.

BOTTOM LINE
Money will be available for free agency if needed. However, I don't see us being very active, given Miguel's scenario. But, yes, $1.8M or even $3.4M is not enough. We are likely to sign a couple of mid-level free agents and many JAG's.

One could simply assume the Brady restructure and spend that $4.6M early if necessary. This could be necessary if Mayo's contract restructure isn't ready to go.

 

[patfanken]

I have $3.4M available after signing Connolly and restructuring Browner. Considering all the player signed in Miguel's scenario, I think that this is quite good, enough to sign one mid-level free agent, presumably a 3rd down running back, although a DT is certainly possible.

1) Miguel has indicated that the cushion might be a bit high. It is always better to estimate high. After all, any unspent money rolls over into next year or is used up to pay for a bonus on an extension.

2) As Miguel indicated, if more free agent money is needed, another restructure can be made to Brady or Vollmer. A Brady restructure quickly produces $4.666M in cap money. In addition, contracts for Gronkowski and Arrington could be restructured.

BOTTOM LINE
Money will be available for free agency if needed. However, I don't see us being very active, given Miguel's scenario. But, yes, $1.8M or even $3.4M is not enough. We are likely to sign a couple of mid-level free agents and many JAG's.

One could simply assume the Brady restructure and spend that $4.6M early if necessary. This could be necessary if Mayo's contract restructure isn't ready to go.

Thanks for the feedback, and I agree. But I have to admit that I will feel a lot better if after the initial dust settles, we see that spending money pop up.

They just released Darnell Dockett. I'd like to think that if BB felt he had something left, we'd at least have an option to go after him to fill a need. I'm sure there will be many other interesting name become available as well. So many that after FA starts and the top 10 or so get over paid, there will be some very interesting bargains in a buyers market.

 

[hwc]

Pat Kirwin has been talking about two quick metrics he uses to gauge a team's cap flexibility:

1) Is the combined cap hit of the three highest paid players less than 30% of the cap (about $42 million)?

2) What is the dead money hit from the highest paid player (usually the QB).

At $49 million and change for Revis, Brady, and Mayo, the Pats are over his limit for three highest cap numbers. But, assuming anything is done with Revis (cut or extension), there should be a cap savings of at least $10 million this year which would bring the Pats into line.

The QB dead money number is a measure that determines the sanity of going back to the well on a restructure to free up cap money. For example, 36 year old Drew Brees currently has a dead money hit of $33 million. If he tears an ACL jogging tomorrow and retires, they have a $33 million cap hit. If they go back to the bank and restructure $9 million to get some cap room, his dead money number becomes $42 million. That's the kind of hit that would mean they can't field a team.

Brady's dead money hit of $18 million is OK, but it's not a number that a prudent team would want to keep adding to.

Going through their rosters, Kirwin made the case that the Saints and the Cowboys have serious problems with outstanding dead money hits. The Cowboys can't afford to cut anybody! Not a good situation to be in. The Saints have no choice, but to cut a lot of players. Also not a good situation.