My 2015 Offseason plan for the Super Bowl Champions New England Patriots

[PatsFans.com Article]

My 2015 Offseason plan for the Super Bowl Champions New England Patriots

Miguel Benzan

One fan's offseason plan for the defending Super Bowl champions

Continue reading...

 

[patriot1136]

I like your plan overall. We would have to draft a DT then. I also hope we resign Ayers

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I can't see any faults in Miguel's plan. That would be a successful off-season.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Seeing Vince in a Miami uni would hurt. But how could we not trust BB?

 

[micronin127]

Like it a lot. Except that there is a chance for them to create more space and try to bring Vince back. Can't re-do Brady's deal again until new league year, but most of his salary can be converted to bonus and spread forward. Similar could be done for Browner. Combined you could create 6-8 million in additional space this year at the expense of future years.

It's possible they free up more space, but not for Vince. They may want to get a jump on extending Chandler Jones and/or Donta Hightower. Also, the Ridley reclamation project, though minimal, does not interest me as much as getting a pass catching back secured like we have in Vereen or could possibly pursue in free agency.

 

[mayoclinic]

My 2015 Offseason plan for the Super Bowl Champions New England Patriots

Miguel Benzan

One fan's offseason plan for the defending Super Bowl champions

Continue reading...

Nice work.

My last off-season plan was 2 months ago:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...s-of-a-motley-masochistic-mastermind.1114686/

Some of the numbers are out of date, and it needs to be re-worked. But I still like a lot of it, but there would be some key changes (I think Vereen is likely gone, and Wilfork is likely cut).

A couple of thoughts:

1. As I've said many times, I would prioritize keeping Ayers. Big asset.

2. I think you're contract for Nate Solder is very low. I can't see David Dunn buying into that one. I think it will take more like Duane Brown/Brandon Alberts money. I'd be elated if your scenario works out.

 

[50-yard-line]

I'd actually like to see them bring in a couple of reclamation projects, too. Teams always need an injection of hungry new players.

I agree with Mayo on Ayers, expecially given the Mayo and Hightower injury situation. Besides, him walking away from that reporter when she asked what they could do to stop getting questions about deflategate was pure Patriot.

Reggie Bush, if available, would be a great fit, i think. Very versatile.

The rumors continue to swirl that they're in on Percy Harvin, but man, I hope they do their due diligence. A couple of hungry vets on prove-it or I-want-a-ring! deals would go a long way in 2015.

 

[Sicilian]

This is the best (and most realistic) plan I've heard so far. Unfortunately we're in a position where some good players are going to have to take pay cuts or leave, and I'm not entirely convinced that we're going to be able to keep as many as you've outlined here.

Question: From what I can understand (which is probably very little), Amendola has some decent leverage here. We don't get that much savings from cutting him, so if he refuses to restructure we'd have to find a replacement for him at a lower number than the net savings. He didn't put up huge numbers all season, but he was a BIG part of our super bowl run. I'm not sure you can replace him with what we'd save by cutting him. That money could be used in conjunction with other savings to sign someone better I suppose, unless I'm missing something.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Seeing Vince in a Miami uni would hurt. But how could we not trust BB?

VW played in all 16 games and over 70 pct of our defensive plays. He had 28 tackles and 25 assists. Zero sacks. Zero forced or recovered fumbles. One lucky INT because he couldn't get off LOS. He's a mediocre player at best right now.

Silega pLayed 7 games and he had 2.5 sacks. 21 tackles and 23 assists.

 

[patfanken]

Great job, Miguel. Comprehensive and informative as usual. Here are my questions

1. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but why are so many people (including yourself) projecting the AVV on Revis' contract extension to be in the $15-16MM range when the current TOP of the market for 2 much YOUNGER elite CB's is $14MM. Revis is on the record as saying he doesn't need to be the highest paid CB. Plus it doesn't make sense to pay a guy who will be 30 at the start of next season significantly more than much younger guys who have set the top of the market. Could someone explain that to me.

2. I was wondering why you spent so much time detailing Gotskowski's contract, yet glossed over McCourty's with a single line. McCourty is the 2nd biggest priority the Pats have. I can only guess you just ran out of gas.

3. Based on your scenario, if everything came to pass, how much cap space would the Pats have to spend on other team's FA's. It wasn't clear to me.

4. Vince is going to be the toughest question to come up with this off season. I think I am like most of us who hate the thought of him leaving, yet are hard pressed to see how he stays. You gave the example of the $2MM payday for Kevin Williams as what you thought his actual value was. I'd be willing to double that if we could get that cap number down to $4MM for this year. What's a reasonable scenario that makes that happen?

5. The next 2 are for Mayo. I'm still wondering about your man crush for Ayers. He was a great mid season pick up and for a SHORT while was very productive. However his disappearance over the last 6 games rivals only that of Tim Wright's. We need to know why that happened before we spend $3-5MM/yr to bring him back.

, The other 2 reasons I question bringing him back is that his presence would ****** the development of Moore and Buchanan. I don't think the Pats have given up on either. Also this year is supposedly one of the best in recent history for edge rushers. It would seem counter productive to bring in a draft prospect picked in one of the top 3 rounds when you already have Ayers, Moore and Buchanan as back ups to Jones and Ninko. So between his lack of late season playing time, his projected salary demands, the development of cheaper players already on the roster, and likelihood of a day 2 draft pick, is Akeem Ayers really a big of a necessity as you make him seem to be.

6. Are you still hot on the Eddie Royal chase at the expense of cutting Amendola. Personally I think this constant chase for the so called "deep threat" is like chasing fools gold. First I would suggest that between Tyms, Boyce, and Dobson , we already have 3 on the roster. I would also suggest that both Edelman, LaFell got deep several times this season....as well as Gronk. Raw speed isn't the ONLY way to get deep. I just do not see how adding ANOTHER deep threat would increase the likelihood of our ability to connect on more deep balls, given the nature of our offense and the QB who runs it.

 

[Tunescribe]

Miguel, no mention of re-signing Vereen or Connolly. Is this to assume they would be unaffordable and go elsewhere? I do like a scenario in which Revis, McCourty and Gostkowski are retained -- those are my top-three priorities.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Impressive detail, oh so necessary in any informed speculation on cap moves.
Like the way Miguel directly confronts the emotionally very difficult, for us big Wilfork fans, issue of Wilfy's over the top cap impact.

Folks clamoring for us to re-sign Ben Vereen need to be specific on their solution is to the cap impact.

Bottom line is that even with Miguel's realistic but optimistic (in my view, but why be otherwise?) w/o Wilfy and Vereen especially, the 2015 Pats have some serious backfilling to do.
Thankfully there's a draft and maybe a step up by developing youngsters currently on the payroll; I'm thinking Ayers pass rush candidates specifically. (No, not Jake Bequette)
Can we hope that miraculously another couple FAs fall into our lap again?
Truly things went VERY well for the fortunate & opportunistic 2014 Patriots.

 

[Tunescribe]

Wilfork's situation is a sad example of what sucks about the NFL as a business. I hope there is a way that it can be worked out for him to end his career as a Patriot, but it doesn't look good.

 

[Miguel]

Great job, Miguel. Comprehensive and informative as usual. Here are my questions

1. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but why are so many people (including yourself) projecting the AVV on Revis' contract extension to be in the $15-16MM range when the current TOP of the market for 2 much YOUNGER elite CB's is $14MM. Revis is on the record as saying he doesn't need to be the highest paid CB. Plus it doesn't make sense to pay a guy who will be 30 at the start of next season significantly more than much younger guys who have set the top of the market. Could someone explain that to me.

My preferred deal pays Revis in cash $56.5 million. 56.5/4= $14.125M APY. Makes Revis the highest paif contract by the APY metric. Could have made his 2016/2017/2018 cap number $14M but that would mean less cap savings in 2015.

 

[Miguel]

2. I was wondering why you spent so much time detailing Gotskowski's contract, yet glossed over McCourty's with a single line. McCourty is the 2nd biggest priority the Pats have. I can only guess you just ran out of gas.

Will add sentence to the blog noting that if you wish to see more details read my McCourty blog
http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1414

3. Based on your scenario, if everything came to pass, how much cap space would the Pats have to spend on other team's FA's. It wasn't clear to me.

Will make it clearer after work.

4. Vince is going to be the toughest question to come up with this off season. I think I am like most of us who hate the thought of him leaving, yet are hard pressed to see how he stays. You gave the example of the $2MM payday for Kevin Williams as what you thought his actual value was. I'd be willing to double that if we could get that cap number down to $4MM for this year. What's a reasonable scenario that makes that happen?

If there was a reasonable/realistic scenario, I would have included it Any incentives for Wilfork are likely to be LTBE for 2015. Doubtful that Patriots convert salary/roster bonus into a signing bonus.

 

[micronin127]

I project Revis as 15M AAV mainly because we shifted 5M of bonus money into 2015 so it's 10M from the new deal, plus the 5M we already paid him, but did not account for.

 

[Miguel]

Miguel, no mention of re-signing Vereen or Connolly. Is this to assume they would be unaffordable and go elsewhere?

Yes. Could be wrong about Connolly.

 

[micronin127]

I like Connolly for "Wendell money".

 

[patfanken]

z

My preferred deal pays Revis in cash $56.5 million. 5 6.5/4= $14.125M APY. Makes Revis the highest paif contract by the APY metric. Could have made his 2016/2017/2018 cap number $14M but that would mean less cap savings in 2015.

Thanks for pointing that out. My mistake was assuming a 3 year deal. Clearly my reading of the details was not as good as your writing of them. 2 more points on the Revis deal.

1. Any deal, like yours, that puts him in the same general area as Sherman and Peterson, would be very hard for Revis to turn down, since it essentially gives him every thing he wants. He'd be at or among the top paid CB's in the league. He'd be making a ton of money. He'd be playing in a place he enjoys and has a better than average chance to win it all. The only reasons not to sign a deal like that is because he really didn't like it here as much as he let on, or getting $16mm/yr is the MOST important factor to him. Both of these are highly unlikely, despite what Jet fans say.

2. The very fact that we are hearing NOTHING from either Revis or the Pats is very promising IMO. The Pats don't negotiate well in the press or with players who try to use the media in negotiations. Given that nothing has leaked on either side, tells me that the negotiations are going well. I believe that the basis for a deal has already been reached and only the details need to worked out. Its usually the details that take the longest time to iron out.

I predict that by 3/6 the latest, a deal will be announced. The news will come suddenly and without notice and directly from the team. No scoops for you, mediots. BTW- It wouldn't surprise me at all, Miguel, if your deal isn't very close to reality. When it comes to light, I will be among the first to pat you on the back.

 

[patfanken]

Yes. Could be wrong about Connolly.

Here's my problem about letting Connolly go. IMO, a great deal of the success that Stork had this year was due to the fact he was surrounded by 2 vets who not only had years of experience, they had years of experience at playing the C position. I wonder if we rush to replace Wendell with Flemming and Connolly with a high draft pick, we will be getting TOO young, too soon at the interior OL.

That's why I'm very wary of scenarios that have Connolly and/or Wendell not on the roster.