MVP Watch

[Buchanty]

The facts of the matter are that the MVP is voted on by 50 people who have chosen historically the person with the greatest personal statistics in that season. They also greatly favor quarterbacks over any other position. They also LOVE giant foreheads.

Hmmm - how many of those votes are signed - Archie?

Like others I would prefer that Brady get the SB MVP. Rarely has a MVP season been followed by an equal or better one, and imagine Brady next season if he can improve on this one.

Besides I now understand that MVP stands for Manning's Virtual Property and winning it again says more about those that have been overlooked than it does Manning's perennial greatness. With potentially 5 MVPs you would expect a much better post season record than 9-10 (47.3%)

 

[BradyBranch39]

if they're going to give it to a QB who isn't the best, Cutler should get it... not Manning.

 

[Salva135]

From Mike Sando:

Brady leads the NFL in Total QBR (81.6 out of 100) and has shiny traditional stats as part of the equation: 24 touchdown passes, three interceptions, three rushing touchdowns and seven rushing first downs despite netting only 16 yards on his 15 rushing attempts. Upcoming games against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers will provide a stiffer test. Brady has played only two of the top defenses in passer rating allowed. He had three touchdowns, three picks and an 0-2 record in those games.

The bolded is pretty important. He's going to have to play extremely well against both the Texans and Niners if he wants to sniff this award.

 

[Uncle Rico]

From Mike Sando:



The bolded is pretty important. He's going to have to play extremely well against both the Texans and Niners if he wants to sniff this award.

Well, bit of cherry picking there. So his three picks came in two games, which means Sando is talking about Seattle and AZ. Brady did well against a few other pretty good defenses, such as Baltimore (101.2 rating) and Denver (104.6). You'd also have to look at how Manning did against good/playoff-bound teams: Atlanta (3 picks, 58.5), Houston (83.0 rating), Bengals (two picks).

That said, I am glad the Houston and 49ers games are on the schedule. First off, they just sound like great games. Second, they will be a good chance for Brady and the entire team to really get a measure of themselves against good competition. The MVP could be one or lost by Brady in those two games, and that's a good side story. The main thing to watch will be what this team learns about itself and what it does with that going into the playoffs.

 

[Rob0729]

From Mike Sando:



The bolded is pretty important. He's going to have to play extremely well against both the Texans and Niners if he wants to sniff this award.

I think the bolded is overstated a bit. One of those games, they lost Hernandez on the third offensive play forcing the Pats to revise their offense totally on the fly. And Brady still passed for 316 yards and lost by a missed field goal and a questionable holding call that negated what would have been the game winning TD pass by Brady.

Against the Seahawks, Brady threw for 395 yards. The Pats lost because that game because the Pats defense let Russell Wilson complete long passes all day long. In that game, Wilson completed 10.85 yards per ATTEMPT.

Sando seems to be rewarding Manning for garbage time stats against the Pats and Texans. Statistically he had good games against both teams, but both teams blew out the Broncos but Manning got some garbage time TDs to make the score look closer than it was. Also he got garbage time stats vs. the Falcons too, but those couldn't erase his three INTs early in the game.

This is why I think the MVP title is BS. Too much focus on stats and not enough actually analysis how the players played and how the teams played.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

From Mike Sando:



The bolded is pretty important. He's going to have to play extremely well against both the Texans and Niners if he wants to sniff this award.

Manning has 0 TDs, 0 completions, and 0 wins against the top teams for passer rating allowed, and he's already played all the games he's going to against those teams so he has no chance to improve those numbers. Since I'm sure people will use the exact same logic to disparage him it's safe to assume he's no complete eliminated from the MVP race.

 

[Salva135]

I think the bolded is overstated a bit. One of those games, they lost Hernandez on the third offensive play forcing the Pats to revise their offense totally on the fly. And Brady still passed for 316 yards and lost by a missed field goal and a questionable holding call that negated what would have been the game winning TD pass by Brady.

Against the Seahawks, Brady threw for 395 yards. The Pats lost because that game because the Pats defense let Russell Wilson complete long passes all day long. In that game, Wilson completed 10.85 yards per ATTEMPT.

Sando seems to be rewarding Manning for garbage time stats against the Pats and Texans. Statistically he had good games against both teams, but both teams blew out the Broncos but Manning got some garbage time TDs to make the score look closer than it was. Also he got garbage time stats vs. the Falcons too, but those couldn't erase his three INTs early in the game.

This is why I think the MVP title is BS. Too much focus on stats and not enough actually analysis how the players played and how the teams played.

I agree with most of this. But I think given where the Niners and Texans stand right now, his performances against those teams, especially at this point in the season with playoff seedings on the line, what he does in those games will make or break his overall MVP chances. And that seems fair.

 

[BradyManny]

From Mike Sando:



The bolded is pretty important. He's going to have to play extremely well against both the Texans and Niners if he wants to sniff this award.

LOL, Brady has been killing on ridiculously difficult pass defenses the last several years, and no one even wanted to bring level of competition into the equation back then. Suddenly, now it's relevant. Thanks Mike Sando.

And that stat he posts is pretty misleading and makes me question either his objectivity or his intelligence. When he says that Brady has only played TWO of the top defenses in passer rating against (SEA and ARI), he conveniently leaves out defense number 5 which is Baltimore (a whole 1.2 rating points behind Seattle which manages to register...) - a team he shredded for 335 yards and a 86 QBR rating. Granted, we lost that game, but in spite of the loss and in spite of only tossing 1 TD, it might been Brady's best performance of the season.

Either way, Brady has faced 3 of the top 5 pass defenses by Sando's metric, Manning has faced none. He faced the #6, #7, #10 defenses, and lost two of those games, including his worst game of the season when he had a 21 QBR and gave the game to Atlanta in the first quarter with his picks.

When all is said and done, Manning will have played nine of his games against teams that now rank in the bottom third in the league in rating against. That's b/c the AFCW is a joke right now, and he gets to feast on them twice. San Diego (22nd), Kansas City (30th) and Oakland (32nd).

The AFCE might look pretty easy right now, but by comparison, its pass defenses are no cupcake, Miami (12th), NYJ (15th) and Buf (20th).

 

[Uncle Rico]

One interesting aspect of the Manning watch — and he's a great player in the midst of a great story — is weather. I heard someone on NFLN yesterday mention that there were a lot of questions about how Manning would handle being outside after playing all those years in the dome — and the person talking (sorry can't remember who) said he's proven he can play outside.

I think it's premature to make that statement. Yeah, Manning has been outside. But he's hardly playing "in weather" yet. A quick look at the Broncos' last five games:

Week 8 home v NO: 59 degrees, 5 mph wind,
Week 9: At Cinci, 49 degrees, 1 mph wind
Week 10: At Carolina, 71 degrees, 5 mph wind
Week 12: Home vs SD, 62 and sunny, 3 mph
Week 13: @ KC, 52, 5 mph

I'm no expert on Denver weather, but I am often surprised at how relatively mild temps are for November and December games I've seen out there. Sunday's forecast for the first game in December: Partly cloudy and 68.

 

[Salva135]

LOL, Brady has been killing on ridiculously difficult pass defenses the last several years, and no one even wanted to bring level of competition into the equation back then. Suddenly, now it's relevant. Thanks Mike Sando.

And that stat he posts is pretty misleading and makes me question either his objectivity or his intelligence. When he says that Brady has only played TWO of the top defenses in passer rating against (SEA and ARI), he conveniently leaves out defense number 5 which is Baltimore (a whole 1.2 rating points behind Seattle which manages to register...) - a team he shredded for 335 yards and a 86 QBR rating. Granted, we lost that game, but in spite of the loss and in spite of only tossing 1 TD, it might been Brady's best performance of the season.

Either way, Brady has faced 3 of the top 5 pass defenses by Sando's metric, Manning has faced none. He faced the #6, #7, #10 defenses, and lost two of those games, including his worst game of the season when he had a 21 QBR and gave the game to Atlanta in the first quarter with his picks.

When all is said and done, Manning will have played nine of his games against teams that now rank in the bottom third in the league in rating against. That's b/c the AFCW is a joke right now, and he gets to feast on them twice. San Diego (22nd), Kansas City (30th) and Oakland (32nd).

The AFCE might look pretty easy right now, but by comparison, its pass defenses are no cupcake, Miami (12th), NYJ (15th) and Buf (20th).

I'm not saying it's a correct analysis, but this is how the media views things. Peyton only has to face Baltimore and a bunch of cupcake defenses. Brady still has to play against Houston and San Fran. If Peyton cruises through those games, Brady is going to have to put up excellent performances against these major contenders that make national voters unable to ignore Brady's performances this year. If he falters in either of those games, he has no shot. Just the way it is.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm not saying it's a correct analysis, but this is how the media views things. Peyton only has to face Baltimore and a bunch of cupcake defenses. Brady still has to play against Houston and San Fran. If Peyton cruises through those games, Brady is going to have to put up excellent performances against these major contenders that make national voters unable to ignore Brady's performances this year. If he falters in either of those games, he has no shot. Just the way it is.

Sando is not all the media.

 

[ausbacker]

Sando is not all that smart.

I hope you don't mind me editing your post to reflect my position Deus.

 

[Salva135]

Sando is not all the media.

Obviously, but is there anything I said that you logically disagree with? We're talking likelihood of winning the MVP, not who is most deserving of it. Brady is a pretty big underdog right now.

 

[lurker1965]

Go Peyton!!

(Everyone here should root for a secretly pissed off Tom Brady.)

 

[Deus Irae]

Obviously, but is there anything I said that you logically disagree with? We're talking likelihood of winning the MVP, not who is most deserving of it. Brady is a pretty big underdog right now.

The next healthy, good defense Manning plays well against this year when the game was still clearly on the line will be the first. The closest he's come is the Pittsburgh, where he faced a Steelers defense without Clark and with a significantly impaired Polamalu. Brady's games against the Ravens and Broncos are both more impressive than anything Manning's done all season, in terms of dealing with top defenses.

 

[SVN]

All these awards have a media bias obviously. if brady and the pats constantly gave interviews and his dad constantly appeared on radio shows and BB touted how brady is the mvp , and was more friendly then he would get more coverage. The mannings manage the media PR very well so someone like brady has to have an exceptional season to beat manning. When its close , manning is the mvp. When no one is great,manning is the mvp. Its like they were waiting to give manning the mvp award.

 

[Boston Boxer]

The bolded part is all that matters. The CPOY and MVP were Manning's to lose the moment he returned to the game.

Manning will be winning the MVP award a good 2 to 3 years after his retirement. Media ballwashing for him is embarassing

 

[Dodie]

Broncos defense is #4 while tha Pats is at #28 lol media can't give the credit when it's due smh

 

[MoneyFX]

Brady as of now is in the lead for MVP, but I have a feeling that how he does against the Texans and 49ers will determine whether he gets it or not. Both of those teams are very tough.

 

[Salva135]

Brady as of now is in the lead for MVP, but I have a feeling that how he does against the Texans and 49ers will determine whether he gets it or not. Both of those teams are very tough.

That's my entire point. Right or wrong, his performance in those games will make or break his MVP chances. Both are nationally televised games and there are playoff seedings on the line. If he plays well in both of those games and the Pats win both, I think he gets it. Especially if the Ravens struggle down the stretch and the Pats steal a bye.

You can make all of the statistical arguments you want but this is how it's going to play out among the national media. Much of this depends on how Peyton finishes the season, but unless Peyton throws up a stinker or two (unlikely) this is what Brady faces in terms of attempting to win that award.