moving up for a "sure thing"

[MustaphaM0nd]

there is NO sure thing. There are some "surer" things, but even that is ambiguous.

This organization hasn't drafted well in a while, but I don't think that either going straight to top 10 or hoarding 3rd round picks is the solution. Contrary to what lots of people here seem to think, there is a middle ground.

Taking one first-rounder is a 50% pick, taking two 2nd rounders who are 25% picks, you are likely to get a real keeper, and could end up with three. Voila.

The later rounds also sometimes produce. Brady? Troy Brown? more recently, Vollmer and Edelman?
I think instead of worrying about "sure things", the patriots should dispose of some "sure not things" and get compensatory picks.

Yeah, we have a lot of scrubs, but thats a reflection of bad personnel work by the organization. Doesn't mean that drafting isn't the answer.

 

[MaineMan]

When was that?

BB traded up in the 1st twice, in 2002 (31 -> 21 for Dan Graham) and 2003 (14 -> 13 for Ty Warren). He traded back twice, in 2007 (7 -> 10 for Jerod Mayo) and 2009 (23 -> 26 -> 41). And he traded into the next year twice, in 2003 (19 -> 41 + a 2004 1st, which became Wilfork) and 2007 (28 -> a 2008 1st, which became Mayo, and a 4th which became Moss).

BB has traded up 5 times in the 2nd round: 50 -> 48 in 2001 for Matt Light, 41 -> 36 in 2003 for Eugene Wilson, 50 -> 45 in 2003 for Bethel Johnson, 52 -> 36 in 2006 for Chad Jackson, and 47 -> 40 in 2009 for Ron Brace. The only time BB has traded back or out of the 2nd round (other than trades for a player, such as Corey Dillon in 2004 and Wes Welker in 2007) was in 2005, when he traded #64 to Baltimore for a 2005 3rd (used on Ellis Hobbs) and a 2006 3rd (used to trade up for Chad Jackson).

Hmmm. I suspect that BB never trades UP for a WR ever again in our lifetimes.

 

[Kontradiction]

I think Berry is pretty close to a sure thing. He almost single handedly shut down the Gators' offense in the two teams' meeting this past season. However, our needs considered, the only guy I would move up for in the draft would be Dunlap. I think he would look great as an OLB in our system.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

When was that?

BB traded up in the 1st twice, in 2002 (31 -> 21 for Dan Graham) and 2003 (14 -> 13 for Ty Warren). He traded back twice, in 2007 (7 -> 10 for Jerod Mayo) and 2009 (23 -> 26 -> 41). And he traded into the next year twice, in 2003 (19 -> 41 + a 2004 1st, which became Wilfork) and 2007 (28 -> a 2008 1st, which became Mayo, and a 4th which became Moss).

BB has traded up 5 times in the 2nd round: 50 -> 48 in 2001 for Matt Light, 41 -> 36 in 2003 for Eugene Wilson, 50 -> 45 in 2003 for Bethel Johnson, 52 -> 36 in 2006 for Chad Jackson, and 47 -> 40 in 2009 for Ron Brace. The only time BB has traded back or out of the 2nd round (other than trades for a player, such as Corey Dillon in 2004 and Wes Welker in 2007) was in 2005, when he traded #64 to Baltimore for a 2005 3rd (used on Ellis Hobbs) and a 2006 3rd (used to trade up for Chad Jackson).

Hi Mayo - you either have a great memory or are quick with google. I am only using my almost 50 year old memory - but I am glad to see that I was not mistaken.

First round (which I said in my post was my point of reference). As you pointed out -he has traded up (2x ) - thank for the Graham info -forgot that one. And down / out (I did not write out) - but in my meaning trading out (of the first) is a form of trading down. Picking up extra picks in compensation for moving out of your draft slot. And with your excellent summary above - this has happened 5 times. So it is 5 to 2 or alittle over double as many times. Instead of staying at his spot he has shown the perpensity to be much more likely of moving down / out of the slot instead of moving up (speaking about the first round).

And as the contract costs of first round picks is increasing very fast (look at the increases in guaranteed dollars) - I expect Bill to continue this for the forseeable future , unless a rookie salary wage is instituted. There is diminishing value in first round picks as these first round contracts continue to increase at a faster rate than other round contracts (again see the guaranteed dollars increases).

 

[carolinatony]

I would be shocked BUT happpy if BB traded up to get that player but don't expect it.

To me Rolando McClain would be that guy to do it for. He would be our leader on defense.

 

[Kontradiction]

I would be shocked BUT happpy if BB traded up to get that player but don't expect it.

To me Rolando McClain would be that guy to do it for. He would be our leader on defense.

I expect McClain to go top five. I think most people do. There's probably a snowball's chance in hell that the Patriots will move into the top five this year when they have a top five waiting for them in 2011, a year which looks like it will come after another turbulent season for the Raiders.

 

[MaineMan]

So we basically got Ron Brace, Matt Slater, Oscar Lua and Kareem Brown for what could have been Steward Bradley in 2007 and our #124 and #199 in 2009?

That's a non-brainer. Bradley's a stud, and would have been a terrific SILB next to Mayo. Lua and Brown were cut, Slater's a replaceable STer, and Brace has done nothing so far. If Brace turns out to be great it will be different, but Bradley and Mayo could have given us a solid ILB base for a decade.

Yeah. No question that the way it's worked out so far (minus a "final grade" on Brace) pretty much s**ks.

OTOH, it's kinda neat how BB took a pick worth 136 points, traded it for a player (Lua) plus a pick worth 245 points, then trade THAT for a player (Slater) plus a pick worth 430 points. If the actual player selections had been better . . .

BTW, IIRC, Oscar Lua was looking like the proverbial hidden gem in Camp until, at some point (and I forget the details), he suffered a back injury in camp sufficiently severe that he was medically advised not to attempt to play contact sports ever again. I flashed on this when I heard about Tyrone McKenzie's injury and thought, Oh, f Not again!"

But, still, Lua only cost a #211 (about 7 points), and Slater a #153 and a #238 (about 31 points). So the real loss on all that dealing has been the non-performance of Brace.

Anyway, the problem is not the trading down or the trading into next year or the refusing to trade up, it's selecting the wrong players.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I expect McClain to go top five. I think most people do. There's probably a snowball's chance in hell that the Patriots will move into the top five this year when they have a top five waiting for them in 2011, a year which looks like it will come after another turbulent season for the Raiders.

Good point. There likely MIGHT be a rookie salary cap in place for the 2011 - but obviously that can fall through as well (as a new CBA). And then could be the lockout year. So even more unlikely Bill would trade up this year into top 10 and and have all that money (2 years in a row) invested in only 2 new players.

 

[carolinatony]

I expect McClain to go top five. I think most people do. There's probably a snowball's chance in hell that the Patriots will move into the top five this year when they have a top five waiting for them in 2011, a year which looks like it will come after another turbulent season for the Raiders.

I didn't think he was going that High. If he fell to 12-14 I could see a move up but not into the top 10 .

 

[TealSox]

Excuse me... I stopped reading at Eric Berry from Texas.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

BTW, IIRC, Oscar Lua was looking like the proverbial hidden gem in Camp until, at some point (and I forget the details), he suffered a back injury in camp sufficiently severe that he was medically advised not to attempt to play contact sports ever again. I flashed on this when I heard about Tyrone McKenzie's injury and thought, Oh, f**k! Not again!"

I was unaware of Lua injuring his back, though I had a radically different view of his performance at ILB - he sucked. I was hoping to see him after the offseason to see if he made the same one year leap Corey Mays did. Sorry to hear he was injured as badly as all that.

 

[mayoclinic]

I was unaware of Lua injuring his back, though I had a radically different view of his performance at ILB - he sucked. I was hoping to see him after the offseason to see if he made the same one year leap Corey Mays did. Sorry to hear he was injured as badly as all that.

Back injury or not, Lua was just too small and too slow to make it at ILB for us.

 

[Kontradiction]

I didn't think he was going that High. If he fell to 12-14 I could see a move up but not into the top 10 .

I would be absolutely, positively SHOCKED if he didn't go top ten. Especially after his combine numbers come out.

 

[mayoclinic]

Hi Mayo - you either have a great memory or are quick with google. I am only using my almost 50 year old memory - but I am glad to see that I was not mistaken.

First round (which I said in my post was my point of reference). As you pointed out -he has traded up (2x ) - thank for the Graham info -forgot that one. And down / out (I did not write out) - but in my meaning trading out (of the first) is a form of trading down. Picking up extra picks in compensation for moving out of your draft slot. And with your excellent summary above - this has happened 5 times. So it is 5 to 2 or alittle over double as many times. Instead of staying at his spot he has shown the perpensity to be much more likely of moving down / out of the slot instead of moving up (speaking about the first round).

And as the contract costs of first round picks is increasing very fast (look at the increases in guaranteed dollars) - I expect Bill to continue this for the forseeable future , unless a rookie salary wage is instituted. There is diminishing value in first round picks as these first round contracts continue to increase at a faster rate than other round contracts (again see the guaranteed dollars increases).

Thanks. A little bit of both.

I think a trade up from 22 to the 10-15 range is very unlikely, unless McClain slips and the cost turns out to be reasonable. The cost of trading up can be very variable depending on demand. It cost Jacksonville only a little more than 2 3rd round picks to move from 26 to 8 in 2008, for example, so the trade up was relatively cheap - unfortunately, the player they traded up for, Derrick Harvey, hasn't done anything in 2 years. My suspicion is that there would be a lot of people chasing after McClain if he slips, and that the cost to trade up would be considerable, so I consider it unlikely.

I would estimate a roughly 2:1 chance that BB either stays at 22 or trades back a bit. Where I can see him trading up is (1) moving up a few spots if he is targeting a specific guy and thinks he has intel that another team is interested, (2) moving up from 42 to get someone who slips out of the 1st round to the top of the 2nd round, and (3) moving up for a 2nd 1st round prospect who slips a bit.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Thanks. A little bit of both.
......
I would estimate a roughly 2:1 chance that BB either stays at 22 or trades back a bit. Where I can see him trading up is (1) moving up a few spots if he is targeting a specific guy and thinks he has intel that another team is interested, (2) moving up from 42 to get someone who slips out of the 1st round to the top of the 2nd round, and (3) moving up for a 2nd 1st round prospect who slips a bit.

I agree very likely on scenario #2. As you showed in your earlier post- BB has moved up many times in the 2nd round. I also would wish for #3 as those end of 1st round contracts are not nearly so large as the top half of the first round contracts are. Plus you get and extra year on the contract (5th year). But I think those may not come cheap as far as trade terms and those teams (in those slots) say 28-32, ALSO want those slipping players and the 5th year.

I have a theory that this new draft format - spread over 3 days instead of 2 days- will actually hurt BB drafting (trades). Separating the draft into 3 days (from 2) will gives the other teams more time to plan and prepare for the following day. ie. get their stragegies and priorities in order and reach general consensus. Keep in mind many other teams have more decision makers who all want input into the process - than the Pats. On Pats it is Bill and the Krafts who have the say. So when these last minute draft deals come up - with the clock ticking - my belief is that the Pats (who usually come up the winner) as it is a small group (BB / Krafts) that decide. Also they have been working together for so long they can reach good decisions quickly. Other teams can have 'too many cooks' and also they might be new to the organization - newly hired HC and / or GM. The hierarchy of power has long ago been established so less chance of draftday power struggles to muddle the waters.

So this new draft format (in my opinion) allows these other teams more time to plan and organize future trade scenarios - thereby lessening the chance of bad trades / player picks.

Just my 'armchair analysis'...

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Back injury or not, Lua was just too small and too slow to make it at ILB for us.

Nope, his height/weight, and even speed, were fine - he just played with 4-3 technique, pressing too hard and leaving cutback lanes. Mays is still in the NFL and starting because he learned, certainly he was no larger coming out at 235 than Lua at 238?

 

[mayoclinic]

I have a theory that this new draft format - spread over 3 days instead of 2 days- will actually hurt BB drafting (trades). Separating the draft into 3 days (from 2) will gives the other teams more time to plan and prepare for the following day. ie. get their stragegies and priorities in order and reach general consensus. Keep in mind many other teams have more decision makers who all want input into the process - than the Pats. On Pats it is Bill and the Krafts who have the say. So when these last minute draft deals come up - with the clock ticking - my belief is that the Pats (who usually come up the winner) as it is a small group (BB / Krafts) that decide. Also they have been working together for so long they can reach good decisions quickly. Other teams can have 'too many cooks' and also they might be new to the organization - newly hired HC and / or GM. The hierarchy of power has long ago been established so less chance of draftday power struggles to muddle the waters.

So this new draft format (in my opinion) allows these other teams more time to plan and organize future trade scenarios - thereby lessening the chance of bad trades / player picks.

Just my 'armchair analysis'...

I think you could be right. I also think that BB benefitted from the shortened draft selection times last year, which may have created more "shotgun" trades.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I have a theory that this new draft format - spread over 3 days instead of 2 days- will actually hurt BB drafting (trades). Separating the draft into 3 days (from 2) will gives the other teams more time to plan and prepare for the following day. ie. get their stragegies and priorities in order and reach general consensus. Keep in mind many other teams have more decision makers who all want input into the process - than the Pats. On Pats it is Bill and the Krafts who have the say. So when these last minute draft deals come up - with the clock ticking - my belief is that the Pats (who usually come up the winner) as it is a small group (BB / Krafts) that decide. Also they have been working together for so long they can reach good decisions quickly. Other teams can have 'too many cooks' and also they might be new to the organization - newly hired HC and / or GM. The hierarchy of power has long ago been established so less chance of draftday power struggles to muddle the waters.

So this new draft format (in my opinion) allows these other teams more time to plan and organize future trade scenarios - thereby lessening the chance of bad trades / player picks.

Just my 'armchair analysis'...

Or it could give team more time to fall in love with certain players and more time to rationalize the cost of trading with BB to get those players. The extra time can work either way as far as trades go, but I think that if BB wants to move picks, he will have ample opportunity to do it. After all at the end of the day, this is a win now or else league.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

(3) moving up for a 2nd 1st round prospect who slips a bit.

Well, that's generally true of all his move-ups.

Every player the Pats are thinking of grabbing has a slot assigned, and the Patriots won't deviate from that. For example, if McClain gets a #15 grade from the Patriots, they won't trade to #12 to get him, but if he's still available at 17 or 18, they might try to move up.

Conversely, TFB was at the top of their draft board for at least a full round, if not more, before they grabbed him; they just couldn't justify (to themselves) taking him earlier because of their investment in Bledsoe et al.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

And as the contract costs of first round picks is increasing very fast (look at the increases in guaranteed dollars) - I expect Bill to continue this for the forseeable future , unless a rookie salary wage is instituted. There is diminishing value in first round picks as these first round contracts continue to increase at a faster rate than other round contracts (again see the guaranteed dollars increases).

It's increasing, but not nearly as much near the bottom of the round. A five-year contract at #22 would run somewhere on the order of $10M/5y.