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Most Accurate Mock Drafts Historically

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Wretch, Apr 25, 2007.

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  1. Wretch

    Wretch On the Game Day Roster

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    I have been reading about all of the mock drafts and the draft predictions by supposed draft experts (some sellf appointed), and it begged a question. Which (or who) has been the most accurate historically?

    Does nayone know if a predicitive market about the draft has been established?

    See the wiki page below for an explanation of a predictive market.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_markets

    At one point the Department of Defence was going to establish a predictive market to try to predict terrorist attacks.
     
  2. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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  3. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There are a lot of different ways to measure accuracy. TheHuddleReport tracks one way, which not surprisingly makes them look good:
    http://www.thehuddlereport.com/top100/index.shtml
    Other measures go by how well individual players were mapped to teams, or how close on average the predicted slot was to the actual slot for each player. (I'd favor that last version, with tolerances for distance weighted by the draft value chart. I.e., missing by 30 spots from round 5 to round 6 is pretty trivial, while missing by 30 spots from round 1 to round 2 is significant.

    Overall, I think people generally give the nod to Rick Gosselin's final mock as the gold standard.
     
  4. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

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    The guy from profootballweekly was dead on last year. It was silly how close he was in the top 15. Also, Mayock predicted Whitner to the Bills. Of course, none of them had any idea the Pats had designs on Maroney. Gosselin fell hook line and sinker for the R. Marshall canard just like everyone else.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2007
  5. Flying Fungi

    Flying Fungi In the Starting Line-Up

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    is that a buchsbaum joke? :bricks:
     
  6. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

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    Can't mock the original draft nerd, even with a bad pun.... RIP, Joel...:rocker:
     
  7. Irish Hooligan

    Irish Hooligan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Here is Monday's by Gosselin just for a read.
    http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...aft/stories/042207dnspomockdraft.324c744.html
     
  8. NE39

    NE39 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Nolan Nawrocki. I read an article that rated mocks and assign points based on accuracy, and Nawrocki won last year.
     
  9. Flying Fungi

    Flying Fungi In the Starting Line-Up

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  10. Irish Hooligan

    Irish Hooligan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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  11. Flying Fungi

    Flying Fungi In the Starting Line-Up

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    kind of fascinating to see our guys Pioli and Belichick in there isn't it?
     
  12. Irish Hooligan

    Irish Hooligan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Very interesting. I picture a awkwardly skinny man holding a dog screaming into a phone, LOGAN MANKINS!
     
  13. Flying Fungi

    Flying Fungi In the Starting Line-Up

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    I was getting something like this:

    Oy Vey with the WILFORKin GLAVIN!

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Wretch

    Wretch On the Game Day Roster

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    Thanks for the info on both the accuracy and Buchsbaum. Very interesting stuff.

    I was wondering if anyone compiles mock drafts and then does a statistical analysis of all those mock drafts to predict the outcome of the draft.

    I think that you'd have to do something like 99% of all mocks have Russell pick #1 in the first round, 75% of all mock drafts have Johnson as the #2 pick in the first round, etc.

    It would be interesting to see how accurate the compiled data would be.
     
  15. Fixit

    Fixit In the Starting Line-Up

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    Fascinating article, and at the same time utterly depressing. It was nice to see that Belichick and Pioli held him in such high regard.

    Also, he and I both went to SUNY-Albany, so that's nice.
     
  16. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think its a travesty that all the man's work, but for a few small boxes, ended up in the garbage.
     
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