I am afraid that Pats dont have enough defense and running game. I will be very happy to be proven wrong. Vikings? great OL, DL, A. Peterson and C Taylor. I won't be surprised if they made it.
Running Game + Strong Defense =(often)= Superbowl. Don't think that formula is Pat's strongth this year. Minnesota, Giants, Pittsburgh are better (balanced) and are better suited for the post season. Pitt and Giants won 3 (of last 4) superbowls. (and we agree that the Indy win was a freak accident).
Brady will likely have to carry the team, again; recent history, even when he gets us a lead, the team can't keep opponents down. Weak Running=can't run off clock, Leaky D=give up scores late (see 06, 07 playoff, losing on last minute TDs). is this the year the nightmares going to end?
2009 Pats so far, the running game and defense have not shown much, not championship caliber. I love the team but can't feel great about the progress on what the team needed to improve on. Not yet. I will be very happy to be proven wrong as season progresses. I have high hopes.
I do think that this will be the best Patriots team we've ever seen. Look at it this way:
Is this too harsh? I don't get the odds on favorite thing. I think the media (ESPN, SI) are style over substance. They overlook the Pats weakness. Yes we think it will contend, but is it build to WIN?
Pats are one of the best teams in the league at killing the clock offensively when they have a lead. As long as Neal stays healthy (pretty huge if), I'll be confident in that. The problem is that they had trouble getting their defense off the field in 2008, but I think they've addressed that more than adequately this offseason.
where are we worse than 2007?
CB1: Samuel > Bodden (?- I have Bodden as the #1 right now, but it's kinda up in the air)
SOLB: Vrabel > Woods
QB: Brady pre-injury > Brady post-injury (maybe not, but I'll give em this one
)
Where are we better than 2007?
WILB: Mayo > Thomas
SILB: Guyton > Bruschi
WOLB: Thomas > Colvin (and much better than post-injury replacement)
DE: Seymour > Green, injured Seymour
WR3: Galloway > Stallworth, Gaffney
TE2: Watson/Baker/Thomas > Thomas/Brady
Where it's harder to tell:
Meriweather or Harrison? Depends on how well Sanders can fill the leadership void, and if Meriweather takes another step up.
Springs/Wilhite or Hobbs? Depends on how you feel about Hobbs, really. I'm inclined to think that it's a wash at worst, and at best a substantial upgrade. And either way, the depth is much better.
I also think that the 2009 team has superior depth pretty much across the board.