"More picks than we have roster spots for"

[patchick]

I keep reading this refrain, so I thought it might be useful to go over the roster as it now stands. Below is a plausible stab at the current 53 (+Blount). I've bolded the names of players who, IMO, would not be big surprises to be beaten out by a promising rookie. You may not agree with every bolded name, but the key point:

There are 20 of them.

8 on offense, 9 on defense, 1 on special teams. My guess is every roster in the league has ample room for rookies.

OFFENSE
Bryan Stork
Josh Kline
Chris Barker
Ryan Wendell
Cameron Fleming
Jordan Devey
Marcus Cannon
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Danny Amendola
Aaron Dobson
Julian Edelman
Bryan Tyms
Brandon LaFell
Tyler Gaffney
Jonas Gray
James White
Brandon Bolden
(LaGarrette Blount--suspended game 1)
Rob Gronkowski
Scott Chandler
Tim Wright
Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo

DEFENSE
Antonio Johnson
Chis Jones
Sealver Siliga
Joe Vellano
Alan Branch
Dominique Easley
Chandler Jones
Jabaal Sheard
Rob Ninkovich
Michael Buchanan
Donta Hightower
Jamie Collins
Jerod Mayo
Chris White
Darius Fleming
James Morris
Kyle Arrington
Logan Ryan
Alfonzo Dennard
Malcolm Butler
Bradley Fletcher
Robert McClain
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Patrick Chung
Nate Ebner

SPECIAL TEAMS
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski
Danny Aiken
Matthew Slater

 

[everlong]

I think one of Gray and White are safe and I completely think Chris Jones is safe given his level of production coupled with his low salary. I'd be shocked if he didn't make the team. Other than that I agree.

 

[patchick]

I think one of Gray and White are safe and I completely think Chris Jones is safe given his level of production coupled with his low salary. I'd be shocked if he didn't make the team. Other than that I agree.

Yeah, Chris Jones was probably a mistake to include. On the RBs, some are surely safe but I'm hard pressed to say which...White & Bolden are my best guesses.

If you take an either/or approach to the positions with multiple bolded players, the number may come down closer to a dozen total. But that's still plenty of room for good prospects.

 

[Luxusdk]

Is Danny Aiken even on the roster still?

 

[patchick]

Is Danny Aiken even on the roster still?

Definitely one player who should be looking over his shoulder.

 

[cstjohn17]

"More picks than we have roster spots for", whoever said that is high on crack. Maybe 15-20% of the roster are considered mortal locks and cannot be released for performance or contractual arrangements. Then there is a middle tier that is relatively safe, say 40% the rest >40% of the roster lives in continuous fear of a younger (aka cheaper) option being explored.

This is before the success rate of draft picks is factored in; which runs at runs at 50% or less of all draftees that ever make a 53 man roster. If you start to factor in impact (starts, effectiveness, pro bowls, etc.) very very few draft picks impact a roster.

Reminds me of the "Where will we play these guys?" refrain.

 

[DarrylS]

Roster competition is what makes this team great...

 

[JayNM]

Last year we had 9 picks (not counting RFA pick-ups). Of those, 3 didn't make it to the roster (john Halapio, jemea thomas and jeremy gallon). That means that a third of our picks were ""wasted"". In hindsight, we could have used those picks as ammo and move up the draft board for a better prospect (not saying that i'm upset with our draft class, this is a theoretical scenario)

Sometimes, even when considering potential, a rookie is beat out of camp. And i believe that we have talent within the lower part of our roster. So that is why i think we have more picks than we are actually needing.

 

[unoriginal]

Is Danny Aiken even on the roster still?

Definitely one player who should be looking over his shoulder.

I presume what Luxusdk meant was that Danny Aiken is currently an unsigned, unrestricted free agent, like Dan Connolly and Stevan Ridley, who do not factor into your roster analysis. Tyler Ott is the only long snapper (apart from Ninkovich) on the roster.

 

[BobDigital]

I think we could easily fit 9 new players onto this team without cutting anyone all that good.

Don't get me wrong I like a lot of our bottom of the roster guys. I think overall it is a fairly good depth group. Doesn't mean can't do better. I would of course like some trade ups depending on what talent is there and expect little to nothing from our 6th and 7th round selections.

 

[unoriginal]

"More picks than we have roster spots for", whoever said that is high on crack.

Currently the Pats have 75 people under contract, leaving 15 spots open for training camp rosters.
At this precise time last year the Pats had 63 people under contract.

By my count, there were 15 UDFAs on the camp roster at any one time last year, two of whom (Butler, Skinner) earned more playing time than 6-7th round picks Jon Halapio, Jemea Thomas, and Jeremy Gallon.

This roster is much more competitive than our SB-winning roster was this time last year. The Pats could, if they wished, forgo the draft entirely and fill out their camp roster with their normal UDFA class, and still wind up with one or two new meaningful contributors.

So I don't think the idea the Pats have more picks than roster spots to be crazy town.

 

[captain stone]

There is never, ever, EVAH such a thing as too many draft picks.

It is completely and utterly illogical to think otherwise.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I think what people are saying is that with the talent level on this team, it will be very hard for any of the rookies drafted after the 5th round to make the team. Last year, only 1 (Zach Moore) made the team and that was the practice squad. I think those early picks in rounds 6 and 7 could be used to move up higher in the second and third rounds.

Although I do expect the Pats to trade out of the first round. I think whoever wants Bryce Petty is going to have to come to BB for pick #32.

 

[mgteich]

I keep reading this refrain, so I thought it might be useful to go over the roster as it now stands. Below is a plausible stab at the current 53 (+Blount). I've bolded the names of players who, IMO, would not be big surprises to be beaten out by a promising rookie. You may not agree with every bolded name, but the key point:

There are 20 of them.

8 on offense, 9 on defense, 1 on special teams. My guess is every roster in the league has ample room for rookies.

OFFENSE
Bryan Stork
Josh Kline
Chris Barker
Ryan Wendell
Cameron Fleming
Jordan Devey
Marcus Cannon
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Danny Amendola
Aaron Dobson
Julian Edelman
Bryan Tyms
Brandon LaFell
Tyler Gaffney
Jonas Gray
James White
Brandon Bolden
(LaGarrette Blount--suspended game 1)
Rob Gronkowski
Scott Chandler
Tim Wright
Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo

DEFENSE
Antonio Johnson
Chis Jones
Sealver Siliga
Joe Vellano
Alan Branch
Dominique Easley
Chandler Jones
Jabaal Sheard
Rob Ninkovich
Michael Buchanan
Donta Hightower
Jamie Collins
Jerod Mayo
Chris White
Darius Fleming
James Morris
Kyle Arrington
Logan Ryan
Alfonzo Dennard
Malcolm Butler
Bradley Fletcher
Robert McClain
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Patrick Chung
Nate Ebner

SPECIAL TEAMS
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski
Danny Aiken
Matthew Slater

 

[mgteich]

I disagree with your 53, not surprising at this point. For example, I think Develin, Hooman and Wilson are the "current" 53 for me.

I also think that Chris Jones is a lock.
=======

That being said, I agree with your analysis that there are about 18 roster spots that are open to competition. I would note that some of these (e.g. Wright) have more competition from those already here than from rookies. This can be easily seen in your list of THREE vulnerable corners, at most one is going to beaten out by a rookie.

I also think that Belichick can find 6 players in the first four rounds to keep his record intact of never cutting a healthy rookie 4th rounder. I suppose he might draft only five, using one to move up.

My expectations for late rounders and UDFA's is low, as it always is. Two making this team would be a lot.

 

[patchick]

I disagree with your 53, not surprising at this point. For example, I think Develin

Whoops! I slapped that roster together quickly, totally forgot Develin. Thanks for catching it.

 

[patchick]

Last year we had 9 picks (not counting RFA pick-ups). Of those, 3 didn't make it to the roster (john Halapio, jemea thomas and jeremy gallon). That means that a third of our picks were ""wasted"". In hindsight, we could have used those picks as ammo and move up the draft board for a better prospect

I really don't think it works that way. Halapio didn't miss the roster because they had too many draft picks and too much good competition on the o-line. (Devey, Barker et al attest to that.) He was just a bust. There will ALWAYS be busts. Most draft picks across the league bust. The value of extra draft picks is giving you more chances at a hit.

I think those early picks in rounds 6 and 7 could be used to move up higher in the second and third rounds.

I think you're significantly overestimating the trade value of late picks. FYI, the Pats have 2 tradeable picks in rounds 6 & 7. If they sacrificed both of them it would give them 24 points of draft value, enough firepower to move up from #64 to...#63.

Fore reference, since 2002 the Pats have drafted 24 players in round 7, including:

Tully Banta-Cain
Matt Cassel
Julian Edelman
Brandon Deaderick
Michael Buchanan
Zach Moore

So mostly misses, but point-per-point a very good return on investment.

 

[JayNM]

I really don't think it works that way. Halapio didn't miss the roster because they had too many draft picks and too much good competition on the o-line. (Devey, Barker et al attest to that.) He was just a bust. There will ALWAYS be busts. Most draft picks across the league bust. The value of extra draft picks is giving you more chances at a hit.

Oh, absolutely. I'm not saying that moving up the draft board is the better approach. The Draft is trully a lottery, so having more tickets may as well be the best strategy. I just don't think is the only way to address it and that why I don't think that the statement of "More picks than roster spots" is completely wrong. It has its merits, IMO.

 

[mgteich]

Let's be real! There are plenty of roster spots that might be filled by those drafted in the first four rounds. We have six of those picks; we may end up with 5-7. In 2014, we found a starter in the 4th round, and a potential one that was our extra OL on short yardage downs. This year, we might find an OG and a RB. We should understand that, barring injury, 100% of Belichick's picks in the first four rounds have made the final roster.

IMHO, late round draft picks and UDFA's are primarily competing for the Practice Squad, and that's fine. late round draft picks might also provide us with a long snapper to compete with Ott. And yes, a couple of later round picks or UDFA's could make the final roster.

 

[mgteich]

I think one of Gray and White are safe and I completely think Chris Jones is safe given his level of production coupled with his low salary. I'd be shocked if he didn't make the team. Other than that I agree.

Blount, draftee, Cadet, Bolden, (5th rb)

Why would with Gray or White be safe? If we have a 5th RB on the 53, it COULD be Gray or White or Gaffney or Lewis or a 2nd draftee or an UDFA.

Personally, I think the 2nd safe RB is Bolden. He is our special teamer who was extended. He has backed up both RB positions.