More active free agency?

[Interception]

With a lack of a first round draft pick, we do save some cap space over the next four years. Do you think there's any chance this could lead to the team making a bigger splash in free agency to make up for the missing draft pick, especially with the extra cap space?

Last time we lost a first round pick, wasn't there more activity in free agency and trades than most years?

 

[scott99]

IF we don't get a GOOD CB in here before the season starts or by the trade deadline, we really need to spend some money on FA CBs. That is the one KEY position that could hold this team back from repeating. Even if Brady misses any games, I feel we can win 11+ games this year, but our secondary could be why we don't go far.

 

[flasox27]

It is a poor substitute for a first round pick which is relatively cheap for five years whereas any quality free agent is not going to be affordable under the cap with players like Jones and Hightower looking for big money. The bottom line is that we are screwed.

 

[ausbacker]

With a lack of a first round draft pick, we do save some cap space over the next four years. Do you think there's any chance this could lead to the team making a bigger splash in free agency to make up for the missing draft pick, especially with the extra cap space?

Last time we lost a first round pick, wasn't there more activity in free agency and trades than most years?

NFL Free Agents 2016 - Offense NFL Free Agents 2016 - Defense

Without knowing the state of contract negotiations and with a plethora of Patriots who will need extensions in the coming years, I doubt the Pats spend large in Free Agency. They'll go about their business as per usual. Extend the guys they are able to and bring in value acquisitions.

 

[woolster22]

The money "saved" bit having to pay a first round pick us replaced by a much larger fa contact (theoretically, to replace similar projected ability anyway). So in the end, we don't "save" anything.

To your point regarding a busier fa period, we will have to sign an "extra" camp body simply to replace lost competition.

 

[supafly]

It is a poor substitute for a first round pick which is relatively cheap for five years whereas any quality free agent is not going to be affordable under the cap with players like Jones and Hightower looking for big money. The bottom line is that we are screwed.

Excellent post, especially if you take away the debatable last sentence. Yes, we're screwed in some way, so you're certainly right about that, but it may not be anything on the level that some people think.

After all, there are years where the higher round picks don't work out and life goes on. I would imagine that Belichick will be able to deal with the loss of the 4th rounder without missing a beat, so it's all going to be about trying to offset next year's first as best as possible. Maybe we end up with two second rounders instead, which could be offset by one of the third rounders? (Our own, of course, since the comp pick cannot be traded)

 

[supafly]

The money "saved" bit having to pay a first round pick us replaced by a much larger fa contact (theoretically, to replace similar projected ability anyway). So in the end, we don't "save" anything.

Yeah, right. People tend to forget how "cheap" those first rounders are now, particularly since the rookie wage scale was implemented. The draft is where it's at, especially in the era of the salary cap. That said, I imagine that Belichick will do his best to offset the loss and life will go on.

 

[DarrylS]

The Patriots have made sporadic "big splashes" in FA with Mixed Results.. Revis great, Adalius Thomas bad... I expect them to continue their course, taking care of their own(Jones, Hightower and Collins) rather than just spend on uncertain players..

 

[MassPats38]

I don't believe free agency would counter the loss of a first round pick (I agree with the above cost-benefit analysis in terms of that pick). The Pats are always very active in free agency, so I don't know if you could see much more activity based on the loss of a pick as the lost pick wouldn't leave the team with more money to spend.

In 2007, there was no rookie wage scale that made first round picks more cost effective. First rounders could clearly be paid the price of veteran deals. Now, not so much. The Pats will survive it, but likely cannot find a work-around to offset that loss financially.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Excellent post, especially if you take away the debatable last sentence. Yes, we're screwed in some way, so you're certainly right about that, but it may not be anything on the level that some people think.

After all, there are years where the higher round picks don't work out and life goes on. I would imagine that Belichick will be able to deal with the loss of the 4th rounder without missing a beat, so it's all going to be about trying to offset next year's first as best as possible. Maybe we end up with two second rounders instead, which could be offset by one of the third rounders? (Our own, of course, since the comp pick cannot be traded)

I "liked" but couldn't "agree." We'll "deal" with the loss of the 4th, but that means giving up value elsewhere or just not having the 4th. We're out the 1. While sometimes we strike out in the first round (after all, they're low down in the 1st round... and people strike out with the #1 #1 too,) the truth is that the numbers game looks pretty bad when the league* just takes you out of it a priori.

The league* itself stipulates a "not limited to" $25,000 penalty for the "crime" of messing with the inflation of the ball. It gives you a general idea of the "importance" of this "crime" -- which the NFL* never proved. They just "won" with the threat of dragging it out (at least vs. Kraft).

So while it's not the end of the world, let's not kid ourselves: it is a pretty heavy thumb on the scale. It's especially so when you consider that they've taken us out of the first round twice now -- both for media-friendly but (ahem) overinflated infractions.

I don't much care what other fan-bases say, and I'm pretty suspicious of the sports media in general - what we know as fans of this team is that we'll never know what difference-makers never did their 4 or 5 years with this team.

Oh yeah, on the OP, I agree - what you pay a guy you draft in the high 20s or low 30s is just not going to compare with a FA, even pretty much a JAG FA. They's cheaper when they's younger.

 

[Sticky Caulk]

I don't think you'll find a more efficient way to use that money than a first round pick. Having a little extra to use towards resigning players is not a bad thing, but it isn't a win at the expense of a high talent, young player locked up for five seasons.

The situation is not set in stone though. The Patriots could hit on a low round pick from this draft or next. Then it's a wash. Not the end of the world.

 

[IllegalContact]

the pats are going to do well when it comes to comp picks.....there will be plenty of new bodies this time next year.

 

[micronin127]

Pats have decisions to make with two players earning relatively big money with option bonuses: Mayo and Sheard. If they move on from either or both of these players and they sign elsewhere in the $5 million a year range, that would be 2 decent compensatory picks for 2017.

Patriots can still be active in free agency by signing players who get cut and don't count against you in the comp pick formula. They can also trade picks for players like they did sending a 4th rounder for Randy Moss way back when.

I think we have 4 players that the team has to decide on for 2016: Solder, Gostkowski, Mayo, Sheard

Bringing in all the DE/OLB types makes me think the team is hedging on Chandler Jones. We have both Hightower and Jones in 2016 on 5th year options, so those are decisions for 2017.

Without a 2016 1st round pick, it is hard to see us getting a left tackle in the draft. Or a top CB. Though a lot of teams seem to find starting CBs as late as the 4th round and we found Malcolm Butler as an UDFA.

 

[eom]

I think it'll be probably business as usual.

they'll sign guys according to cap available and value of the players.