Mock draft: more LBs, please

[rookBoston]

No we won't. Chad Brown and Matt Chatham out, Kiwi and Anderson in. Done. And we can certainly find a roster spot for a WR. Andre Davis and Givens out, Avant in. Done.

So, here's the thing: find 11 players you like for the team, and then map them into our 53-man.

You're going to end up cutting players like Tebucky Jones, Chad Scott, Marquise Hill, Heath Evans and Don Davis to make room for all those rookies.

 

[BelichickFan]

So, here's the thing: find 11 players you like for the team, and then map them into our 53-man.

I didn't say we could use all eleven. But I'm not trading a 3 & 4 to make room for all our extra 6s and 7s especially when the guy you want will be there anyway. If you're trading up for Michael Huff, fine. You're giving away picks for nothing here.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Rook has a cogent thought...

So, no one likes the trade up for Carpenter. Well, if I had posted Logan Mankins at #32 last year, no one would have liked that either.

I'm actually not as dumb as I look. I gave this more thought than comes across as first blush.

There are only three players outside of the top-10 who are likely rookie starters for the Pats (barring injury) in this draft: Greenway, Holmes and Carpenter. And I've taken Holmes off my board for attitidue reasons. So, true to my Value Grouping philosophy, if you have the ammunition to trade up into the end of a value group, that's the time to do it.

If you dont like the trade up, the only other option is to trade down. Winston Justice is NOT an option after being suspended from his college team for an entire year. Deangelo Williams may be an interesting player for us, but he projects to sit on the bench for the season.

If you want to trade down, then you should expect to have Monty Beisel as your starting ILB, because there isn't anyone else in the draft to help out. Carpenter frees Vrabel to play inside. Greenway will play inside and shift Vrabel to outside. All the other LB prospects, and there are many, are just that: prospects. Lawson will need time. Kiwanuka will need time. Ryans, Howard, McIntosh are all a cut below on my board.

I recently put a draft class together with 11 picks, and tried to fit them onto the roster. News flash: they dont fit. Realize, we already have 6 safeties on the roster with starting experience. May as well use some of the extra picks to trade up for a player who can make a difference, instead of stockpiling picks for players that we're going to waive (Dexter Reid is playing for the Colts...).

I promise you that BB will not draft 11 players... maybe 8 or 9. So, "wasting" two mid-round picks to make sure of a player who's a certain starter for us isn't such a bad thing.

Carpenter as a 4th round pick...? He is not going to drop into the 4th round. Didn't I make my point, about the number of team looking for help at OLB? 2nd round, maybe, but not 4th. Think of it this way, if Carpenter lasts until #52, BB will take him without a doubt. But first that means Miami has passed on him twice, and Cleveland at the top of the 2nd-- which is impossible.

Rook ,

I personally agree wityh you. If BB wants to get either fGreenway or Carpenter, and I prefer Carpenter he will have to get ahead of Miami and Dallas. Cleveland is likely to take one of the LBs, which one I'm not sure but RAC may figure he has Willie outside, so get Greenway inside...

The only way he doesn't, is if the big NT Ngata falls to him which is unlikely.

Miami probably should draft a left tackle, and don't forget they have no second rounder since it went for Culpepper. Parcells needs a OLB and a Tackle too, but I don't think of him drafting one in Round 1. Dallas needed a WR to accompany Terry Glenn, but the TO signing has removed that need freeing up a choice of OT or OLB, IMO. As a thought the Vikings need a 4-3 MLB and Greenway would do just fine at that position, and they pick at 17.

You may be right, a trade up to 16 could ber in the cards.

 

[BelichickFan]

You may be right, a trade up to 16 could be in the cards.

If we trade up to 16 I think it'll be for Chad Jackson not Carpenter.

 

[A.C Vegas]

i still think he's goign to trade down and stock a few picks because of all the talent in the middle of the draft he doesn't need a rookie starter right away they'll probably be able to talk one after the june(?) 1 cuts becasue of all the cap room we have no one is thinking about that

 

[rookBoston]

If we trade up to 16 I think it'll be for Chad Jackson not Carpenter.

Chad Jackson? Please... if only he deserved consideration, I would gratefully oblige. His college film does not support it. He's a creature of the Combine, with a good senior campaign-- nothing more. He's all about measurables.

 

[rookBoston]

i still think he's goign to trade down and stock a few picks because of all the talent in the middle of the draft he doesn't need a rookie starter right away they'll probably be able to talk one after the june(?) 1 cuts becasue of all the cap room we have no one is thinking about that

That's not a solution. That's a cop out. Who? Give me a name. What's your plan?

 

[rookBoston]

Miami probably should draft a left tackle, and don't forget they have no second rounder since it went for Culpepper.

Good point. I forgot. But that means Minnesota, who also needs LB help (albeit of a different form) will have the extra pick.

 

[BelichickFan]

Chad Jackson? Please... if only he deserved consideration, I would gratefully oblige. His college film does not support it. He's a creature of the Combine, with a good senior campaign-- nothing more. He's all about measurables.

You see measurables, I see a stud. Time will tell. I'll tell you what . . . sure I'll trade up for Carpenter - from our #2. Get a real #1 pick then trade into the high second for Carpenter because he'll probably be there. And it'd likely only cost a #3. Use our #1 for whatever and our 2 & 3 for Carpenter.

 

[rookBoston]

I didn't say we could use all eleven. But I'm not trading a 3 & 4 to make room for all our extra 6s and 7s especially when the guy you want will be there anyway. If you're trading up for Michael Huff, fine. You're giving away picks for nothing here.

Huff? Great player. Love to have him on the team.

But, we're getting to the core philosophy here: what makes first round value? To start, should be a first year starter...

Huff... is he a first year starter? For most teams... yes. For us, only if Harrison doesn't come back. Or if we bench Wilson. He's a great addition to the team, but we have potential starters in Harrison, Wilson, Sanders, Tebucky, Scott and Hawkins... how is Huff a huge upgrade?

Carpenter, however, is competing with TBC for a starting spot, and... (?) Klecko... after that. Clearly, that's far more achievable.

And Greenway is competing with Beisel. That's not so unachievable, either.

Why are you willing to trade up for Huff? Only because other teams need him, too. It's an illusion.

Ask yourself, why would you be willing to trade up for Huff, but not for Carpenter or Greenway. I think it has nothing to do with the Patriots.

 

[BelichickFan]

I want our top pick to play and I agree that wouldn't be a sure thing with Huff but especially with Harrison being uncertain, they would find a place - even if it was just as a nickel back he would get planty of snaps. I was just using him as an example, though. I still think that getting a 4th-5th round run stuffer will suffice for our defense with Vrabel moving inside and TBC to OLB on passing downs. I don't think Carpenter would so any better other than making the fans smile as he'd be "a starter" vs. having a few LB lineups based on down and distance. This first round should be about getting the best player we can, not trading the farm for a LB who'll probably be there at #21 anyway.

 

[rookBoston]

I want our top pick to play and I agree that wouldn't be a sure thing with Huff but especially with Harrison being uncertain, they would find a place - even if it was just as a nickel back he would get planty of snaps. I was just using him as an example, though. I still think that getting a 4th-5th round run stuffer will suffice for our defense with Vrabel moving inside and TBC to OLB on passing downs. I don't think Carpenter would so any better other than making the fans smile as he'd be "a starter" vs. having a few LB lineups based on down and distance. This first round should be about getting the best player we can, not trading the farm for a LB who'll probably be there at #21 anyway.

As long as we get a quality starter, that's all I ask. Find me a way without trading up, and I'm with you.

 

[A.C Vegas]

That's not a solution. That's a cop out. Who? Give me a name. What's your plan?

How is a cop out I'm telling our linebackers may have had it a little rough they are still very strong and we don't know what we are goign to get from a first rounder we know what we have on our roster and i'm sure some teams will drop a few LB i think it's a risk that can be taken becasue of our talent

 

[rookBoston]

How is a cop out I'm telling our linebackers may have had it a little rough they are still very strong and we don't know what we are goign to get from a first rounder we know what we have on our roster and i'm sure some teams will drop a few LB i think it's a risk that can be taken becasue of our talent

All your saying is Beisel is good enough. Maybe you're right. I hope so.

 

[rookBoston]

You see measurables, I see a stud. Time will tell. I'll tell you what . . . sure I'll trade up for Carpenter - from our #2. Get a real #1 pick then trade into the high second for Carpenter because he'll probably be there. And it'd likely only cost a #3. Use our #1 for whatever and our 2 & 3 for Carpenter.

I disagree. Carpenter will not last beyond the mid/late-20s, worst case.

 

[BelichickFan]

As long as we get a quality starter, that's all I ask. Find me a way without trading up, and I'm with you.

Carpenter at #21. Done. Whether we trade up or not, I guarantee you that Carpenter, Greenway, Wimbley or Lawson will be there at #21. And if you like Kiwanuka, I don't know if you do, that's another.

 

[dryheat44]

So, here's the thing: find 11 players you like for the team, and then map them into our 53-man.

You're going to end up cutting players like Tebucky Jones, Chad Scott, Marquise Hill, Heath Evans and Don Davis to make room for all those rookies.

What's wrong with cutting bottom of the roster guys? The idea is to improve the team. I would love to cut Tebucky Jones, Chad Scott, and Heath Evans. I don't think we're talking irreplaceable parts here. Draft as many players, 9 to 11, and if if necessitates cutting some fringe players (Klecko, TBC, Mruczkowski), because the rooks are better, great. If the 6th and 7th round draft picks have to get cut because they aren't good enough to supplant these guys, great. I'd rather trade our 1st pick and get 3-4 fourth rounders. Not only is there unusual talent there this year, but those guys will have an easily manageable salary cap number.

I don't understand the attachment to depth guys. They're meant to be improved upon. We're not going to bother using draft picks because it might force us to cut Chad Scott??? I don't get it. If guys who aren't good enough for us go to the Colts or Browns, great. It means they're stocking their roster with JAGs.

Also, I think Carpenter projects better to OLB, which would skew your whole aim of paying an arm and a leg to get an immediate starter for ILB. The fact that a rookie is going to start over Beisel at ILB in a Belichick defense is laughable anyway...and I don't think very highly of Beisel. Hodge is a much more polished guy who I feel has a better chance of getting significant playing time as a rookie, and he'll probably be there within a small tradeup of #52.

Anyway, I do respect your opinion, and it was a good post.

 

[mgteich]

10 who could be upgraded

OFFENSE

I have the following on my current 24-man roster (see below). I would not be upset if any of these were upgraded. There is plenty of room for rookies, free agents and even UDFA's to beat out the incumbants.

TEN WHO COULD BE UPGRADED
QB Mortensen
FB Pass, Evans
C Mruczkowski
OG Hochstein
OT Gorin, Britt
WR Johnson, Childress
TE jag (not even on the roster yet)

FOURTEEN "LOCKS"
QB Brady, Cassell
RB/FB Dillon, Faulk
WR Branch,Brown,Caldwell
TE Graham, Watson
OL Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kanzur

 

[mgteich]

Upgrading the Defense

Look carefully at the DL and LB positions. Can you find some that could be upgraded? There is absolutely no problem finding spots for qualified players! However, I do believe that it will be difficult for a 6th rounder, 7th rounder, or UDFA to make the team. The exception could be a special teamer (kicker, returner) or even a QB.

I have included 7 DL's, 9 LB's and 10 DB positions.

ELEVEN OPEN POSITIONS WITH INCUMBANTS
DL (3) Hill, Thomas/Klecko, Wright
LB (6) Beisel, Izzo, Davis, Claridge, Banta-Cain, Alexander
DB (2) G. Scott/Mitchell/Ventrone, Poteat/ C. Scott

ALMOST LOCKS (15 + Harrison)
DL - Green, Seymour,Wilfork, Warren
LB - Colvin, Bruschi, Vrabel
CB - Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, Warfield
S - Wilson, Sanders, Hawkins, Jones
PUP Harrison

 

[big mike]

Thanks for the effort, rook. I too, find fault at everyone reaching for a LB in the first when they will fall to them later.
I also think that after reading more and more, I'm beginning to lean to Greenway over Carpenter.

edit: The depth at LB this year has been the motivation for me to shout out that we need to trade down out of the first round. Get an early 2 and a 3. Linebackers will come off the board in the second faster than you think they will in the first. That is where the action is, imo.

I completely disagree about trading out of the first. What you and others are ignoring is that LB is the biggest need of several teams drafting after #21 in the first round, some of whom are playing a 3-4. The result is that there will likely be at least 4, possibly 6 or more good LBs (mostly OLBs) taken between picks 22 and 32. NY Giants, Carolina, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh IMO are essentially definites to take an LB. Jacksonville and Cinci are fairly likely to as well. Miami and Philly before us are likely to take LBs. Yes, the draft is deep in LBs - but there will be a LOT going in the second half of round 1. Staying at 21 we could well have almost our choice of who we want at OLB (although Dallas and possibly Miami will be taking one we may like before us). If we trade down into the second round, many LBs would be coming off the board before our pick, potentially drastically decreasing the talent pool left.

That's why I see us either staying at 21, or possibly trading down maybe 2 or 3 spots (not past NY) - maybe even trading up a little if there's a guy BB particularly likes, and wants to get ahead of Dallas.

We will then have 2-2's and 3-3's to clean house at LB, CB,RB, S and OL. With 3-4's on Day 2 we can go for WR or BPA and do even more damage.

You're completely ignoring though how many LBs WILL come off the board in the second half of round 1.