Mock draft: more LBs, please

[rookBoston]

So, I've been reading too many Mock drafts where players like Kelly Jennings, Eric Winston and Gabe Watson are being taken in the first round. Craziness.

Fact is that the too many mock drafters are drafting on pure need. The WR class is totally over-drafted on most mocks, the RBs are sliding like an avalanche, the OTs were terrible at the Combine, and the best CBs are real high-risk prospects like Cromartie (who didn't even play last year), Marshall and Joseph (both Juniors and a bit raw).

In contrast, this will do down as one of the best LB classes in living memory, in terms of ability, experience and depth.

Add to that the fact that a lot of teams need solutions at LB: Titans, Saints, Packers, Niners, Lions, Cards, Rams, Eagles, Vikes, Chiefs, Pats, Bengals, Giants, Jags, Jets... to name a few.

With that in mind, I decided to make up a mock that I thought was more realistic.


1. Houston - RB Reggie Bush
2. Jets - QB Matt Leinart (from New Orleans) The Jets get ahead of the Titans to get the QB they want.
3. Denver - DE Mario Williams (from Tennessee) Stunned at losing Leinart, the Titans trade down and Denver gets it's DE playmaker
4. New Orleans - OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson (from Jets)
5. Green Bay - LB AJ Hawk
6. San Francisco - S Michael Huff
7. Oakland - DT Broderick Bunkley Frankly, I'm shocked that Bunkley is coming off the board before Ngata, but afterall this is the Raiders.
8. Buffalo - DT Haloti Ngata
9. Detroit - CB Jimmy Williams Who can ever know what the muttonheads are thinking up in the Motor City.
10. Arizona - TE Vernon Davis
11. St Louis - CB Tye Hill
12. Cleveland - LB Chad Greenway Hey, he fits Romeo's scheme just as well as he would for the Pats
13. New England - LB Bobby Carpenter (from Baltimore) for a 3rd plus 4th rounder. Yeah, this sucks, but there are two players that I like in the first round, and the other guy just came off the board. BB knows that he needs to get ahead of his buddy Saban, who is looking for a big, strong OLB too, and his old boss Parcells, who needs someone to pair with Demarcus.
14. Philadelphia - LB Ernie Sims Will press Dhani Jones as a rookie
15. Tennessee - QB Jay Cutler (from Atlanta via Denver)
16. Miami - LB Manny Lawson a little raw, but incredible upside, to replace Seau
17. Minnesota- QB Vince Young
18. Dallas - WR Chad Jackson Could take another OLB here...
19. Indianapolis - RB Deangelo Williams (from San Diego) for #30 plus their 2nd
20. Kansas City - DE Kamerion Wimbley
21. Baltimore - OT Winston Justice (from New England)
22. Tennessee - LB Demeco Ryans (from Denver) Lost Brad Kassel and now Bullock skipped offseason workouts
23. Tampa - WR Santonio Holmes
24. Cinci - TE Leonard Pope
25. Giants - LB D'Qwell Jackson Injuries at LB killed the team last year
26. Chicago - CB Antonio Cromartie
27. Carolina - LB Thomas Howard Lost Will Witherspoon in the offseason.
28. Jacksonville - RB Lawrence Moroney Fred Taylor insurance
29. New Orleans - LB Roger McIntosh (from Denver via Atlanta via Jets) Saints LB corp is a laughing stock, and even as the 9th LB taken, there's still a case for McIntosh as the BPA
30. San Diego- S Ko Simpson (from Indianapolis)
31. Seattle - DE Tamba Hali
32. Pittsburgh - FS Donte Whitner

For those of you who are going to object that Carpenter is a solid 2nd rounder, I'm convinced that Cleveland, Miami, Dallas, New England, Jets and Raiders will all be interested-- in other words, the entire Belichick coaching tree. With the trend back to 3-4 defenses, I'm sure both Carpenter and Greenway will be top-20 picks.

If we dont move up, Miami at #16 needs to replace Junior Seau. If Carpenter lasts past the Fins, Dallas is looking for someone at #18 to pair up with Demarco Ware.

 

[PonyExpress]

Comments
1. For Denver to get up to #3 overall and draft Williams, they would have to trade both their firsts and their second.
2. Someone out there is in love with VY.
3. #21, #75, and #106 for Carpenter?

 

[bosfan]

Don't like it, it is not necessary to panic, would love to see us grab Carpenter but not at that price. There will be no problem getting linebacking help in this draft.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I'd rather have the guy you have at 21 W.Justice than moving up for
Bobby Carpenter and extra picks. No way do that many lb's go in
the 1st round.

 

[mcbee]

If the draft is so deep in LBs why would you reach for one?

NFL.com has Carpenter as a 4th round talent. Yes! Believe it.

AS for his great attitude, gbn.com linked to a scouts.com pro-day report that said some scouts were disappointed in his "prissy" attitude (their word) and said he was alot different than his lunch-pail type father.

Yes! That's what they said. Now none of us has met him so we can't really disagree from personal experience.

 

[shirtsleeve]

Thanks for the effort, rook. I too, find fault at everyone reaching for a LB in the first when they will fall to them later.
I also think that after reading more and more, I'm beginning to lean to Greenway over Carpenter.

edit: The depth at LB this year has been the motivation for me to shout out that we need to trade down out of the first round. Get an early 2 and a 3. Linebackers will come off the board in the second faster than you think they will in the first. That is where the action is, imo. We will then have 2-2's and 3-3's to clean house at LB, CB,RB, S and OL. With 3-4's on Day 2 we can go for WR or BPA and do even more damage.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

rook, rook, rook, there are many decaffeinated coffees that are just as tasty as the high lead varieties.

 

[rookBoston]

So, no one likes the trade up for Carpenter. Well, if I had posted Logan Mankins at #32 last year, no one would have liked that either.

I'm actually not as dumb as I look. I gave this more thought than comes across as first blush.

There are only three players outside of the top-10 who are likely rookie starters for the Pats (barring injury) in this draft: Greenway, Holmes and Carpenter. And I've taken Holmes off my board for attitidue reasons. So, true to my Value Grouping philosophy, if you have the ammunition to trade up into the end of a value group, that's the time to do it.

If you dont like the trade up, the only other option is to trade down. Winston Justice is NOT an option after being suspended from his college team for an entire year. Deangelo Williams may be an interesting player for us, but he projects to sit on the bench for the season.

If you want to trade down, then you should expect to have Monty Beisel as your starting ILB, because there isn't anyone else in the draft to help out. Carpenter frees Vrabel to play inside. Greenway will play inside and shift Vrabel to outside. All the other LB prospects, and there are many, are just that: prospects. Lawson will need time. Kiwanuka will need time. Ryans, Howard, McIntosh are all a cut below on my board.

I recently put a draft class together with 11 picks, and tried to fit them onto the roster. News flash: they dont fit. Realize, we already have 6 safeties on the roster with starting experience. May as well use some of the extra picks to trade up for a player who can make a difference, instead of stockpiling picks for players that we're going to waive (Dexter Reid is playing for the Colts...).

I promise you that BB will not draft 11 players... maybe 8 or 9. So, "wasting" two mid-round picks to make sure of a player who's a certain starter for us isn't such a bad thing.

Carpenter as a 4th round pick...? He is not going to drop into the 4th round. Didn't I make my point, about the number of team looking for help at OLB? 2nd round, maybe, but not 4th. Think of it this way, if Carpenter lasts until #52, BB will take him without a doubt. But first that means Miami has passed on him twice, and Cleveland at the top of the 2nd-- which is impossible.

 

[PonyExpress]

So, no one likes the trade up for Carpenter. Well, if I had posted Logan Mankins at #32 last year, no one would have liked that either.

I'm actually not as dumb as I look. I gave this more thought than comes across as first blush.

There are only three players outside of the top-10 who are likely rookie starters for the Pats (barring injury) in this draft: Greenway, Holmes and Carpenter. And I've taken Holmes off my board for attitidue reasons. So, true to my Value Grouping philosophy, if you have the ammunition to trade up into the end of a value group, that's the time to do it.

If you dont like the trade up, the only other option is to trade down. Winston Justice is NOT an option after being suspended from his college team for an entire year. Deangelo Williams may be an interesting player for us, but he projects to sit on the bench for the season.

If you want to trade down, then you should expect to have Monty Beisel as your starting ILB, because there isn't anyone else in the draft to help out. Carpenter frees Vrabel to play inside. Greenway will play inside and shift Vrabel to outside. All the other LB prospects, and there are many, are just that: prospects. Lawson will need time. Kiwanuka will need time. Ryans, Howard, McIntosh are all a cut below on my board.

I recently put a draft class together with 11 picks, and tried to fit them onto the roster. News flash: they dont fit. Realize, we already have 6 safeties on the roster with starting experience. May as well use some of the extra picks to trade up for a player who can make a difference, instead of stockpiling picks for players that we're going to waive (Dexter Reid is playing for the Colts...).

I promise you that BB will not draft 11 players... maybe 8 or 9. So, "wasting" two mid-round picks to make sure of a player who's a certain starter for us isn't such a bad thing.

Carpenter as a 4th round pick...? He is not going to drop into the 4th round. Didn't I make my point, about the number of team looking for help at OLB? 2nd round, maybe, but not 4th. Think of it this way, if Carpenter lasts until #52, BB will take him without a doubt. But first that means Miami has passed on him twice, and Cleveland at the top of the 2nd-- which is impossible.

This was a very thought-provoking mock. Excellent work. I still am not convinced that the trade-up would be for Carpenter, but a trade up is definitely something to consider. Another thing to consider is that the Pats all offseason seem to be taking a long term view of the franchise: letting McGinest, Givens and Adam go suggests they are concerned with the long term financial stability and viability of the franchise. The best news from this is it is not the behavior of a coach trying to win in it one more time before leaving, like a Parcells, so we can expect BB around for years to come. If so, is it in character for him to suddenly become desperate on draft day for an immediate fix, and pass on potentially more impactful players in the long term in favor of one who can fill an immediate need? The answer could be yes.

 

[chowder]

would anybody want to trade up for Greenway instead of Carpenter?

 

[BelichickFan]

So, no one likes the trade up for Carpenter. Well, if I had posted Logan Mankins at #32 last year, no one would have liked that either.

Trading up for Carpenter is horrendous. There's a real good chance he'll be there at #21 and if not there will be an equal player.

Mankins last year ? Different story. That draft was not as deep in the late first to the end of the draft. That was a year to "reach" for a specific guy - this year isn't.

 

[stinkypete]

I think this will be a huge year for LBs (I see 5 or 6 drafted in round 1), but I think it is a stretch to say that guys like Roger MacIntosh will get drafted in the opening round.

As for Carpenter, I'd feel comfortable trading down for him, either to the last 5 picks of round 1 or to the early parts of the 2nd. If Carpenter is gone by then, I feel fine taking Darryl Tapp instead.

 

[BelichickFan]

If Carpenter is gone by then, I feel fine taking Darryl Tapp instead.

Late first/early second ? PUKE.

:bricks:

 

[rookBoston]

This was a very thought-provoking mock. Excellent work. I still am not convinced that the trade-up would be for Carpenter, but a trade up is definitely something to consider. Another thing to consider is that the Pats all offseason seem to be taking a long term view of the franchise: letting McGinest, Givens and Adam go suggests they are concerned with the long term financial stability and viability of the franchise. The best news from this is it is not the behavior of a coach trying to win in it one more time before leaving, like a Parcells, so we can expect BB around for years to come. If so, is it in character for him to suddenly become desperate on draft day for an immediate fix, and pass on potentially more impactful players in the long term in favor of one who can fill an immediate need? The answer could be yes.

I dont think trading up is an act of desperation. It's a luxury that he's afforded himself after years of careful planning for just this type of opportunity. He spent last year's draft stockpiling picks for this year. And he's worked this offseason to plug depth holes in the secondary and on special teams, so he's free to use those later picks as trade bait if he needs them.

BB has said in the past, that if you keep trading down you never come away with any impact players. At some point, you need to cash those chips in.

If he could have found a trading partner, he would have traded up for Vilma and for Clayton. He did trade up for Graham (from 32 to 21) and traded up one spot for Warren (13), so he has shown a decided willingness to move up for a particular player at a particular spot.

This is just part of BB's core draft philosophy: pick your spots, be patient until you're sure of one particular guy, then make the move. All those extra picks, including the Compensatory picks (even tho they're untradable), help give him flexibility. The ability to move up and down the draft board was the key to the 2003 draft class, and he's setup much the same for this year.

------------

My other point in creating this mock was to underline the fact that more LBs are going to get first round consideration than most of the mock draft sites are showing.

In the back of my mind, I set the board to be something close to my worst case scenario, where I assumed that Cleveland, Miami, Jets and Dallas are all interested in the same LBs we are. There is some basis for that, but of course we cant know for sure; it's really born out of my own paranoia.

If things go better for us, hopefully both Greenway and Carpenter last a bit longer than #12 and #13. Outside chance they both come off the board after Sims, Lawyson and Ryans, and are there for us at #21. I'm not holding my breath. Also, lasting into the late teens is possible, in which case we'd only need to trade up to, say, the Vikings spot at #17 to make sure of our starting LB.

I'm spending all this time strategizing how to replace McGinest, TJ and Phifer, and BB's going to make me look like a doofus (again) by taking a TE in the first round.

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm spending all this time strategizing how to replace McGinest, TJ and Phifer, and BB's going to make me look like a doofus (again) by taking a TE in the first round.

LOL, I'd love to find the next McGinest, I think it's more likely Kiwanuka not Carpenter. Either way I wouldn't trade up.

We can fix the LB situation by taking a TJ clone IMO, I'll say Tim Dobbins but insert your favorite run stuffer in the draft.

Comparing to 2004 :

Run Downs (2004) : McGinest, TJ, Bruschi, Vrabel
Run Downs (2006) : Vrabel, Dobbins, Bruschi, Colvin

Pass Downs (2004) : McGinest, Phifer, Bruschi, Vrabel
Pass Downs (2006) : Banta Cain, Vrabel, Bruschi, Colvin

We end up with a rookie replacing TJ on run downs and Banta Cain as the rush LB on pass downs with Vrabel moving inside.

We basically have a freebie of Colvin as he was just coming back in 2004. Although I put Tully in at OLB, that could also be Claridge or Claridge inside with Vrabel staying outside. But the Tully option isn't bad at all IMO and we could draft a few LB on our own terms as the draft progresses rather than trading half our draft for Carpenter.

 

[rookBoston]

Trading up for Carpenter is horrendous. There's a real good chance he'll be there at #21 and if not there will be an equal player.

Find me an "equal player" to what Carpenter would bring us in our system, and I'll agree. I've looked.

The next closest thing is Manny Lawson, who may go even higher, and Chris Cogong... but he's a big gamble. Neither one played LB in college. And Kiwi, of course... who's starting to grow on me... but has a few more questionmarks than Bobby.

 

[BelichickFan]

Find me an "equal player" to what Carpenter would bring us in our system, and I'll agree. I've looked.

The next closest thing is Manny Lawson, who may go even higher, and Chris Cogong... but he's a big gamble. Neither one played LB in college.

You're too focused on LB. We are fine at LB, we just need to get a TJ clone and have some of the young guys step up in appropriate roles.

In your draft I like Justice, Ryans, Holmes all as much, or more, than Carpenter. Not to mention Kiwanuka. I have NO PROBLEM with Carpenter but I'm not trading up for him. No way.

 

[BelichickFan]

And Kiwi, of course... who's starting to grow on me... but has a few more questionmarks than Bobby.

The problem is the 3 & 4. I'll take Kiwi and save the 3 & 4 for, say, Stovall and Gocong or Mark Anderson and Jason Avant.

 

[rookBoston]

The problem is the 3 & 4. I'll take Kiwi and save the 3 & 4 for, say, Stovall and Gocong or Mark Anderson and Jason Avant.

If we take Kiwi and Anderson and Avant, we'll have to send players to the "rookie IR", again. And Kiwi is a boom or bust pick. Carpenter looks like a lifer.

By waiting and taking Kiwi, what you're telling me is that Beisel and Claridge are going to cut it at ILB this year... You're okay with that?... either that or that TBC can step in for McGinest...? I'm seeing it a little more pragmatically.

As for the rest:
Winston Justice was suspended from his team for a full year. Santonio Holmes has major ego problems. Talent is there, but they dont even make my draft board.

 

[BelichickFan]

If we take Kiwi and Anderson and Avant, we'll have to send players to the "rookie IR", again.

No we won't. Chad Brown and Matt Chatham out, Kiwi and Anderson in. Done. And we can certainly find a roster spot for a WR. Andre Davis and Givens out, Avant in. Done.

By waiting and taking Kiwi, what you're telling me is that Beisel and Claridge are going to cut it at ILB this year... You're okay with that?... either that or that TBC can step in for McGinest...? I'm seeing it a little more pragmatically.

I do think TBC can take on the pass down role of McGinnest. Not the full role. That's why I also draft an ILB to play inside with Vrabel outside on run downs. And maybe I just take that ILB and Kiwi, forget Anderson and take a Bing or the like in the 3rd round.

Bottom line, drafting Carpeneter at #21 is fine although a slight reach. I'd puke before using #21 plus a 3 & 4 for him.