Minimal Cap Increase for 2013

[mayoclinic]

Florio reports that the NFLPA is planning for a minimal cap increase for 2013, only about $400K/team:

NFLPA expects small increase in salary cap | ProFootballTalk

That's pretty much what Robert Kraft had predicted and planned for, contrary to the expectations of some. The new TV revenues kick in in 2014, but the cap may not increase for some time:

NFL - Soaring revenues won't coincide with salary-cap growth - ESPN

A number of teams will be very hard squeezed in 2013:

- The Jets have $140M cap figure in committed contracts.
- The Saints are looking at a $16M cap crunch, not including FAs such as OT Jermon Bushrod and DT Sedrick Ellis:

Saints facing a cap mess in 2013 | ProFootballTalk

Lots of others will be squeezed. The Pats will probably be in pretty good situation, but things will be tight, as usual. While that won't be fun, it probably favors the smart organizations (such as the Pats).

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

2 types or orgs will be fine. Well managed franchises like the Pats and lucky inept franchises who throw just the right combo of stuff forward to where they get cap relief.

 

[Foxypats]

This is one of the many reasons that I am so glad that Brady is our QB. How many times has he negotiated his contract to make it more cap friendly? I like Brees, but he doesn't come across as someone that will do that. If he re negotiated, they could probably keep either Vilma or smith. Maybe I am wrong, but it will be interesting to see if he takes one for the team!

 

[BlueThunder]

With Edelman,Welker,Vollmer, Talib,and Woodhead among the players having to be resigned, where are Pats regarding cap space for next season? I go to Jet Cap site for Pats and it looks like they are at 104Mil with 43 signed. There is another 6Mil or so to be brought forward from this season? That should mean there is about 23Mil avail, No?

 

[mgteich]

The 6 million will be partially (or fully) used up for bonuses associated with 2012 performance.

Also, note that that $6M should be allocated to draftees, enough players to reach 53, the Practice Squad, IR players and a reserve for injuries during the season.

So, I have that $23M down to about $11M, depending on the amount needed for 2012 bonuses.

You list Welker, Talib, Vollmer, Edelman and Woodhead. I would add Arrington. We may all think that he should be replaced as our nickel, but signing a quality nickel back will not be free by any means. In any case, we clearly need to re-sign or sign 2 CB's, 2 WR's and an OT. For me, a 3rd down back like Woodhead is extremely valuable, but still the 6th priority.

BTW, this is NOT an especially long list of off-season needs. I suggest that we will/should draft a front seven defensive player and a defensive back.

I don't know the restrictions on how often a player can restructure. Certainly, restructuring of existing contracts is usually a method to make cap monies available. For example, can Brady be restructured or would he need a new contract to reduce his cap hit?

With Edelman,Welker,Vollmer, Talib,and Woodhead among the players having to be resigned, where are Pats regarding cap space for next season? I go to Jet Cap site for Pats and it looks like they are at 104Mil with 43 signed. There is another 6Mil or so to be brought forward from this season? That should mean there is about 23Mil avail, No?

 

[patfanken]

The first thing that has to get done is a Brady extension. The team isn't going to carry a $21MM cap number on him. What will be interesting to see is what he takes and how it is structured. He doesn't need the money. Right now he and his wife are working on the future financial security of the great-great-great-great-great-great grand kids. At this point its all about comparing ****s with his peers.

In my opinion the question Tom should be asking is how much can I take and still be assured I will be surrounded by enough quality players to see me through my the declining years of my career. He probably only has about 2-3 more years before we will start to see some visible slippage in the relative quality of his play. But that being said, given his head, and his competitiveness, after that time it is likely that he can still remain a top 15 QB for another 3 years.

While Tom can still carry a team now and for the next couple of years, in those last 3-4 years he will need to have players around him who can help carry him. To do that we will need the cap room to help give him that support. He needs to be a big part of us having that ability and this next extension will be the method

For Tom its all about the rings, not the dollars. It probably never has been, about the money, but it certainly can't be now. Its ironic that he has the power to make sure that he is well surrounded with talent in his final years here.....or not. I can only guess what the deal will end up being, but the results will be telling....and have long term effects.

 

[mayoclinic]

With Edelman,Welker,Vollmer, Talib,and Woodhead among the players having to be resigned, where are Pats regarding cap space for next season? I go to Jet Cap site for Pats and it looks like they are at 104Mil with 43 signed. There is another 6Mil or so to be brought forward from this season? That should mean there is about 23Mil avail, No?

The 6 million will be partially (or fully) used up for bonuses associated with 2012 performance.

Also, note that that $6M should be allocated to draftees, enough players to reach 53, the Practice Squad, IR players and a reserve for injuries during the season.

So, I have that $23M down to about $11M, depending on the amount needed for 2012 bonuses.

You list Welker, Talib, Vollmer, Edelman and Woodhead. I would add Arrington. We may all think that he should be replaced as our nickel, but signing a quality nickel back will not be free by any means. In any case, we clearly need to re-sign or sign 2 CB's, 2 WR's and an OT. For me, a 3rd down back like Woodhead is extremely valuable, but still the 6th priority.

BTW, this is NOT an especially long list of off-season needs. I suggest that we will/should draft a front seven defensive player and a defensive back.

I don't know the restrictions on how often a player can restructure. Certainly, restructuring of existing contracts is usually a method to make cap monies available. For example, can Brady be restructured or would he need a new contract to reduce his cap hit?

God knows I'm not a capologist. But assuming a 2013 cap of $121M and the numbers from the Jets page as a starting point, we have about $104M in salaries for 43 players plus dead money leaving $17M, plus a $6M carry over, making a starting point of $23M. Anything beyond that would have to be gained by roster cuts or contract restructurings to the currently signed 43 players.

As MgT notes, the $23M may be partly illusory when you factor in bonuses, PS players and the 2013 rookie pool.

Current FAs include:

- OT Sebastian Vollmer
- WR Wes Welker
- CB Aqib Talib
---------------------------------------
- WR/PR Julian Edelman
- RB Danny Woodhead
---------------------------------------
- CB Kyle Arrington
- LB Dane Fletcher (RFA)
- TE Michael Hoomanamanui
- DE Trevor Scott
- CB/ST Marquice Cole
- LB Tracy White
---------------------------------------
- S Pat Chung
- DT Ron Brace
- LB Niko Koutovides
- WR Deion Branch
- WR Donte Stallworth
- CB/ST Derrick Martin

I've probably missed a few, and I've grouped them into rough tiers based on my guess as to priority.

My guess is there's going to have to be some careful prioritizing, some hard lines about how far to go with specific players, and some trimming and restructuring. I don't see a lot of fat to trim.

 

[Ring 6]

This is one of the many reasons that I am so glad that Brady is our QB. How many times has he negotiated his contract to make it more cap friendly? I like Brees, but he doesn't come across as someone that will do that. If he re negotiated, they could probably keep either Vilma or smith. Maybe I am wrong, but it will be interesting to see if he takes one for the team!

This really isn't what you think it is. Players do not sacrifice anything when they restrructure to free up cap space. They simply convert salary to bonus, so it gets amortized.

 

[Deus Irae]

Current FAs include:

- OT Sebastian Vollmer
- WR Wes Welker
- CB Aqib Talib
---------------------------------------
- WR/PR Julian Edelman
- RB Danny Woodhead
---------------------------------------
- CB Kyle Arrington
- LB Dane Fletcher (RFA)
- TE Michael Hoomanamanui
- DE Trevor Scott
- CB/ST Marquice Cole
- LB Tracy White
---------------------------------------
- S Pat Chung
- DT Ron Brace
- LB Niko Koutovides
- WR Deion Branch
- WR Donte Stallworth
- CB/ST Derrick Martin

That's really not bad at all. The bolded players will need to get paid well. The underlined players may need salary bumps but should stay very reasonable. The rest are non-returning or minimum guys.

 

[Ring 6]

That's really not bad at all. The bolded players will need to get paid well. The underlined players may need salary bumps but should stay very reasonable. The rest are non-returning or minimum guys.

And with 43 signed those 5 plus 5 draft choices fill out your roster, so anything left is for upgrading.

 

[patfanken]

This really isn't what you think it is. Players do not sacrifice anything when they restrructure to free up cap space. They simply convert salary to bonus, so it gets amortized.

Thanks for pointing this out. That's a pet peeve of mine. As much as I love Tom Brady, the fact is, he shouldn't be put up for Sainthood for these "renegotiations", none of them should. The fact that should be known to the public is when this is done the player isn't giving up a single dollar.

Lets see how Tom handles this extension, and THEN decide if he "does the right thing" by the team. (and IMHO. the right thing for himself)

 

[mgteich]

I would note that Ballard and Hoomanamanui are RFA's, at least according to rotoworld.

Also, while I agree that re-signing Arrington is not a high priority. HOWEVER, signing a quality nickel back is at least as high a priority as re-signing Edelman or Woodhead.

God knows I'm not a capologist. But assuming a 2013 cap of $121M and the numbers from the Jets page as a starting point, we have about $104M in salaries for 43 players plus dead money leaving $17M, plus a $6M carry over, making a starting point of $23M. Anything beyond that would have to be gained by roster cuts or contract restructurings to the currently signed 43 players.

As MgT notes, the $23M may be partly illusory when you factor in bonuses, PS players and the 2013 rookie pool.

Current FAs include:

- OT Sebastian Vollmer
- WR Wes Welker
- CB Aqib Talib
---------------------------------------
- WR/PR Julian Edelman
- RB Danny Woodhead
---------------------------------------
- CB Kyle Arrington
- LB Dane Fletcher (RFA)
- TE Michael Hoomanamanui
- DE Trevor Scott
- CB/ST Marquice Cole
- LB Tracy White
---------------------------------------
- S Pat Chung
- DT Ron Brace
- LB Niko Koutovides
- WR Deion Branch
- WR Donte Stallworth
- CB/ST Derrick Martin

I've probably missed a few, and I've grouped them into rough tiers based on my guess as to priority.

My guess is there's going to have to be some careful prioritizing, some hard lines about how far to go with specific players, and some trimming and restructuring. I don't see a lot of fat to trim.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would note that Ballard and Hoomanamanui are RFA's, at least according to rotoworld.

Also, while I agree that re-signing Arrington is not a high priority. HOWEVER, signing a quality nickel back is at least as high a priority as re-signing Edelman or Woodhead.

Glad to hear that Hoomanamanui is an RFA. I'd like to hold on to him - I'd rather dump Fells. And hopefully Ballard will be a contributor. I figured I would have omitted someone.

As for Arrington, I had him with Woodhead and Edelman at first. It's a subjective grouping, and fine by me to shift the dotted line by one spot. That's part of why I had him at the top of the next group. He's been Jeckyll vs. Hyde this year, but hopefully as a nickel/slot CB it's more of the former.

In terms of guys under contract in 2013 who could be cap casualties are possibly restructured because they are not currently living up to their cap hits, Fells and Gostkowski seem like possibilities.

One other thing to consider: a lot of people predict that the cap won't grow much in 2014, either, despite the new TV revenues, or even in 2015. According to the Jets' cap page the Pats currently have only 30 players under contract for 2014, but the cap hit for those 30 players is $102M. That will present significant issues.

 

[mgteich]

GENERAL COMMENTS
I agree with the concern over 2014 and believe that this will affect 2013 re-sign and free agent contracts. There just isn't much room in 2014, even given the expected extension and restructuring of Brady, Wilfork and Mayo. Add the re-sign or replacements of the big 3 could be expensive (Welker, Talib and Vollmer) and not doable.

2014 OFFENSE (AND 2013 OFFSEASON)
We are fine except at WR and at OT. The deficiencies will be solved in the coming offseason.

2014 DEFENSE (AND THE 2013 OFFSEASON)
As of now, there are lots and lots of wholes at DL, LB and CB. Curiously, we are fine at safety with McCourty, Gregory, Wilson and Ebner. We will be replacing or re-signing Deaderick, Cunningham, Love, Spikes, Talib, and Arrington.

The only situation that must be addressed this offseason is the situation at corner and nickel back.
=========================
2013 BOTTOM LINE - REPLACE OR RE-SIGN (AND CONSIDER EFFECT ON 2014 CAP)
Welker
Edelman
Vollmer
Talib
Arrington
Woodhead

One other thing to consider: a lot of people predict that the cap won't grow much in 2014, either, despite the new TV revenues, or even in 2015. According to the Jets' cap page the Pats currently have only 30 players under contract for 2014, but the cap hit for those 30 players is $102M. That will present significant issues.

 

[Deus Irae]

...Curiously, we are fine at safety with McCourty, Gregory, Wilson and Ebner.

 

[BlueThunder]

My guess is there will be a surprize or two in the draft that could possibly make a player we thought as a lock to make the roster, expendable.

Pats are in decent shape to continue dominating the AFC East for a few years, and with a year of experience under their belt, Jones, Hightower,Francis, and Dennard should be better than this season's version.

<ends homeristic rant>

 

[Joker]

who cares about the Patriots draft???...everyone KNOWS the only important draft belongs to the Buttfumblerettes

 

[mayoclinic]

"Fine" is a bit strong, but I don't think that it is as bad as it was, or the top priority on defense. McCourty at FS is a big improvement. Gregory is not terrible, and there's still hope for Wilson. I'd be happy to upgrade Gregory for someone like Kenny Phillips, but I'm not sure that's doable in terms of the cap. I don't have any confidence in a rookie safety coming in and being an immediate upgrade, so I think the odds are that we'll be working with the same basic group.

 

[Deus Irae]

"Fine" is a bit strong, but I don't think that it is as bad as it was, or the top priority on defense. McCourty at FS is a big improvement. Gregory is not terrible, and there's still hope for Wilson. I'd be happy to upgrade Gregory for someone like Kenny Phillips, but I'm not sure that's doable in terms of the cap. I don't have any confidence in a rookie safety coming in and being an immediate upgrade, so I think the odds are that we'll be working with the same basic group.

The safety play is still very poor. Gregory needs to be no more than an S3, and Wilson's got "Chung in coverage" disease. Safety should be the team's #1/1A priority in the offseason (assuming re-signings), along with WR.

 

[BlueThunder]

Can Ras-I play safety? What's Barrett's status ? Can he upgrade the position or is he made of glass? Is Chung here next year? How much does Wilson improve over his rookie year?

Chung,McCourty,Wilson and Gregory are next year's safeties? Where's the height? One tall safety would be nice.