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Mike Pouncey at #17?

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by furley, Mar 13, 2011.

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  1. furley

    furley Rookie

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  2. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If Mankins doesn't play for us this year, we need a starting guard. Could it be that simple? Or are you all fine with Connolly and Wendell?

    Belichick might prefer to start Pouncey at OG instead of having one more year of mankins at $10M. Even we keep Mankins for a year, Pouncy can compete with COnnolly for the other starting position.

    The open question is the value of Pouncey to the patriots over Connolly or Wendell, compared ot the value of other options at 17 and other guards that could be had later.

    My guess is that there will be more valuable options at 17, but I certainly wouldn't be shocked at all.
  3. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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  4. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree. That is why I would prefer to draft a guard at 28 or 33 or 38. I'm a little iffier on waiting until 60.

  5. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Seems too high for my liking. Maybe with a trade-down, but I'd prefer other needs be filled. Mankins has to show up eventually, and while I do think we need to draft someone, there are other guards available in the late first/early second as patchick pointed out.

    Plus he may be around still at 28. From 18 to 27, there are a lot of teams looking for OT help but not necessarily interior OL, while others could use some depth but it may not fill a huge need. Maybe the Colts or Eagles, but they both also need an OT more. The Falcons and Bucs could also be interested, though they also have other more pressing needs. Seattle might be the team that drafts him though at #25, but if they pass, he could drop to us there.

    I doubt he lasts into the second round with #33 as #29 to #32 could use a guard (Bears, Jets, Steelers and Packers).
  6. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Pouncey no earlier than #28 imo. And there are a lot of good OG alternatives that will be available in round 2.
  7. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

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    A huge part of the Pats draft strategy revolves around options at each position. Most here are in agreement that there are other OG options at 28, 33, and even later. And when we consider that their entire OL starters, except Mankins, are non-first rounders, this speaks volumes about their philosophy with this unit. IMHO, Pouncey would have to be head and shoulders better than the other OG options in order to be selected at #17. And I seriously doubt he is.

    At DE, if Jordan and Watt are off the board by 17, Wilkerson and Heyward have been mentioned in that 28 range as later first round options. If the Pats are high on either one (Wilkerson for instance), they could select him earlier than his consensus ranking, as BB dances to his own drummer.

    At OLB, Kerrigan may be the target at 17, but if he's gone, the pickings become slimmer the further we go.

    Something to keep in mind is, the perceived later options may actually be the preferred targets.
  8. furley

    furley Rookie

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    Selecting Pouncey at seventeen is too high, trade down for him instead. Or make a deal with Pittsburgh if they want him. Conversely, if New England remains at seventeen, they could target Corey Liuget and select Danny Watkins at twenty-eight if he's still available.
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2011
  9. tricktak

    tricktak Banned

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    17 is too high for Lieuget and Watkins won't be a first round pick
  10. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If Mankins doesn't play for NE:
    -- He's either a Free Agent under a court order.
    -- He's holding out (unlikely given the financial implications).
    -- His agent found someone who was willing to sign him and cough up significant draft pickage for him.

    If Mankins is a Free Agent under a court order, it implies there is a free agency of a sort, NE will find suitable veterans to compete with Kaczur, Connolly, Wendell, Austin, and any draft picks.

    If he's holding out NE still has four prospects competing for the OG slots, which doesn't account for LeVoir who was a starting LG for Notre Dame or Maneri who currently has no position. And that's not to say Crumpler might not bulk up to 290-300 and kick inside.

    If his agent finds Mankins a new home, NE will have more picks to work with at the top of the draft and that there's trades and free agency for acquiring players.

    If you look at Pouncey and compare him to prior OL acquired by NE under Belichick, he compares to prospects drafted in rounds 4-7 of the draft. Veterans with his background were drafted in the third round or later as rookies and had several years of starting experience by the time NE signed them.

    Look at Watkins and you find some parallel with Kaczur, a comp pick in the third, but in many other ways he's more like a Day Three prospect.

    If we look at apparent athleticism and player history, Ijalana offers the strongest parallel with NE's past high round draft interests. The biggest knock on him is his FCS level competition; and that is a major hurdle as NE under Belichick has never drafted an OL below the FBS level (factor Coach Scarnecchia into that decision making process too). Small school players like Connolly came to NE as free agents and developed for a season on the PSquad. There have been two regular starters who did not play football at an FBS level: Neal (World Class Athlete) and Andruzzi.

    If you look at the athleticism demonstrated by the DL at this year's Combine, you get an idea why Scar and BB want really athletic OL when they are looking for starters. NE wants guys strong and quick enough to fight in a phone booth with Haloti Ngata and Kevin Williams, and fast and quick enough to match-up against a Julius Peppers and Ray Lewis on the edge and at the next level. This is why all the angst over Koppen, or why Neal was kept around with his injury history, or why the idea of just getting rid of Mankins doesn't get a lot of traction inside Gillette.
  11. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    MANKINS
    1) I don't expect any change in the status of Mankins before the draft.
    2) I don't expect the patriots to pay him $10M for one year of services.
    3) I do not expect Mankins to hold out. $10M is adequate pay. I see little reason for him to sign before August. In any case, compensation is unlikely to be relevant to this year's draft.
    4) Belichick will trade Mankins for 2012 compensation or pay him $10M. In the end, $10M is a lot for a guard. I suppose the settlement cap number would be relevant.
    5) I do not expect Mankins to sign a long-term deal with the patriots or play for the patriots for the 2012-2013 season.

    BOTTOM LINE
    A) We need a guard or two to start this year or next. After all we have Koppne, Connolly, Wendell, Ohrnberger and Wendell. And we may or may not have the services of Mankins this year.
    B) I agree with not drafting an OG in the first round. With regard to Pouncey, perhaps a better question is whether he is worth #28 or #33. Robby Esch at huddle has us picking Pouncey at 28. I would not be surprise with others having us picking a guard at 28 or 33, although personally, I would prefer this happening a few picks later say in the 35-45 range.


    Last edited: Mar 13, 2011
  12. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No change in status means no court maneuvers or other shenanigans which means NE is still ahead of the curve with four plus OG candidates on the roster before the draft, not a big deal.

    If NE & Mankins cannot reach a long term settlement (and for now they can't under the rules), then they pay him to play. $10M isn't that far out of line.

    We agree, he most likely plays if he's getting $10M.

    Mankins traded after the draft still means NE has 2012 picks to trade for a player, that practice is not just limited to late round picks.

    Item 5 is too far ahead for me to worry about.

    I expect NE to draft one or more OL in this draft, but unless Ijalana really floats their boat, I expect them to trade down and work rounds three through seven aggressively. That's where the athleticism/value ratio is strongest.
  13. DNR

    DNR Rookie

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  14. tricktak

    tricktak Banned

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    In all likleiehood, Pouncey will probably be the pick at 28, if a Linebacker or a Defensive Lineman is chosen at 17.
  15. NewFeep

    NewFeep Rookie

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    I would definitely not take Pouncey at 17...... I'm not sure I would be happy with him at 28.....

    T/G and DE in the first round for me please........
  16. furley

    furley Rookie

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    If Mike Pouncey isn't supposed to be as talented as his brother Maurkice, then you certainly don't want to reach on him. Nevertheless, he won't last to the second round.

    New England probably would feel more comfortable selecting him at twenty-eight if he's on their radar in the first round. Anthony Castonzo is another choice here as well.

    Benjamin Ijalana and Stefen Wisniewski could be options in the second round. Maybe, Rodney Hudson or Rodney Hudson in later rounds.
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