Mike Mayock: 90 of 100 - Fact or Fiction????

[DaBruinz]

Ok. I just talked to Robbie Esch of the Huddle Report. The Huddle report has been keeping track of the "draft experts" out there both with how they did in the 1st round and how they did with their top 100. It turns out that, to be considered for the top 100 ranking on Huddle Report, the person has to have turned in their listing by a deadline. Mike Mayock has never done so. In fact, according to Mr. Esch, Mayock's final mock and prospect list that is used for the counting, doesn't go up until right before the draft or sometimes after the draft has started.

Mayock is very good at evaluating football talent. I only take issue with him when he tries to knock an individual player with comments that could be applied to a everyone in that situation. I think Mayock is great at predicting where players are going to go and he's got a good knack for knowing what the league will do as a whole and for breaking down players. But, one has to wonder about why he would refuse to submit his top 100 like all the other "draft experts" out there.

I will, for one, be waiting to see when Mayock's final mock and top 100 go up and to see how well he does and whether he compares with Rich Gosselin.

 

[billdog3484]

why would he put himself in such a situation? he has a job on the NFL Network. Why would he want to be compared to people who want his job? Especially in predicting drafts. Mock drafts are fun, but there's no way of telling where players will go. He evaluates his players, thinks of suitable situations for players and teams and goes from there. If he were to put himself on a playing field with other "experts" it could only do him harm. He's smart for staying out of that garbage

 

[apple strudel]

These rating kind of confuse 2 issues for these talkent evaluator/draft guys.
Predicting drafts does not necessarily make you a good talent evaluator. I'd rather hear guys evaluating players and identifying the systems they work for than playing the predict-the-future game of who goes exactly where. The former requires strong knowledge and analytical skills, the latter requires good connections. Both require some guess-work. Why mix them up into an accuracy index that really only measures the latter?

 

[stinkypete]

Of course, if Mayock is the last to publish his mock draft, of course he's going to have the most accurate mock. He works with the most leaked information.

 

[Seneschal2]

Gosselin's Top 100 is what I wait for. His list gives us a more accurate idea of where each prospect is projected, as it's a compilation of opinions from the league's GMs -- rather than Gosselin himself.

 

[mgteich]

According to the Huddle Report, Gosselin has the best record over the past 5 years in predicting which players will be picked in the top 100, and also has the best record with regard to his mock (I suspect that we are discussing 1st round mocks). Huddle itself, and Pro Football Weekly are next in line on their top 100. CBS Sportsline is close to Gosselin on mocks, beating out others by a bit. This type of data is available on the site, some for fee, some not, but the annual price isn't as high as buying one of the magazines.

I must say that I have Gosslin's list with me always during Draft Weekend.

Ok. I just talked to Robbie Esch of the Huddle Report. The Huddle report has been keeping track of the "draft experts" out there both with how they did in the 1st round and how they did with their top 100. It turns out that, to be considered for the top 100 ranking on Huddle Report, the person has to have turned in their listing by a deadline. Mike Mayock has never done so. In fact, according to Mr. Esch, Mayock's final mock and prospect list that is used for the counting, doesn't go up until right before the draft or sometimes after the draft has started.

Mayock is very good at evaluating football talent. I only take issue with him when he tries to knock an individual player with comments that could be applied to a everyone in that situation. I think Mayock is great at predicting where players are going to go and he's got a good knack for knowing what the league will do as a whole and for breaking down players. But, one has to wonder about why he would refuse to submit his top 100 like all the other "draft experts" out there.

I will, for one, be waiting to see when Mayock's final mock and top 100 go up and to see how well he does and whether he compares with Rich Gosselin.

 

[bucky]

These rating kind of confuse 2 issues for these talkent evaluator/draft guys.
Predicting drafts does not necessarily make you a good talent evaluator. I'd rather hear guys evaluating players and identifying the systems they work for than playing the predict-the-future game of who goes exactly where. The former requires strong knowledge and analytical skills, the latter requires good connections. Both require some guess-work. Why mix them up into an accuracy index that really only measures the latter?

I think this is spot on! If your job is to predict where guys will get drafter - like Gosselin, I think - then your ranking on the Huddle Report matters. But if what you're trying to do is evaluate how a prospect will do in the NFL - like Mayock - the ranking shouldn't really matter. It's all about how well the players do compared to how you ranked them. That's a much harder thing to grade, which is probably why nobody keeps track of it.

 

[DaBruinz]

I think this is spot on! If your job is to predict where guys will get drafter - like Gosselin, I think - then your ranking on the Huddle Report matters. But if what you're trying to do is evaluate how a prospect will do in the NFL - like Mayock - the ranking shouldn't really matter. It's all about how well the players do compared to how you ranked them. That's a much harder thing to grade, which is probably why nobody keeps track of it.

Mayock is doing the same thing other people are doing. Sites like NFLDraftScout.com. They do evaluations and such as well.

The point that I was trying to make is that Mayock isn't the absolute best. He's just one of several top ones out there and that even he makes mistakes.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's an interesting and entertaining take on mock draft success from Cold Hard Football Facts:

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The dismal mock-draft scorecard

Of particular interest to me is that fact that Pete Prisco barely beat "Bonjo the Idiot Monkey". Bonjo (an imaginary simian who pulled names out of a dirty hoodie at random), by the way, is predicting Brandon Pettigrew to the Pats at #23.

 

[everlong]

Pete Prisco barely beat "Bonjo the Idiot Monkey".

Damn and all this time I thought Prisco was Bonjo the Idiot Monkey.

 

[bucky]

Mayock is doing the same thing other people are doing. Sites like NFLDraftScout.com. They do evaluations and such as well.

The point that I was trying to make is that Mayock isn't the absolute best. He's just one of several top ones out there and that even he makes mistakes.

Yeah, I understand. The problem is - doing a mock draft and evaluating players are 2 different things.

If Mayock, Kiper, etc. are trying to predict which players will succeed in the NFL, there is not evaluation metric that I'm familiar with to evaluate them. However, they should NOT be judged based on how accurately they predict the draft because that's not what they're trying to do. Their mock drafts should be based on what each team SHOULD DO, not on what they PREDICT THE GM WILL DO. There's a big difference. And when Mayock goes and does something stupid like predicting that Al Davis will draft Heyward Bay, he's muddying the waters as to what his job actually is.

 

[West Philly Patriot]

Yea this stuff is very difficult to gauge you have to be absolutely immersed in college football to speak intelligently about the "entire" draft there are alot of teams with gems on them i mean really does anyone outside of that market check up on Nicholls state players throughout the year or even northern illinois for that matter. Sometimes i think the "experts" are only a few steps ahead of your everyday passionate fan to be perfectly honest.

 

[patchick]

According to the Huddle Report, Gosselin has the best record over the past 5 years in predicting which players will be picked in the top 100, and also has the best record with regard to his mock (I suspect that we are discussing 1st round mocks). Huddle itself, and Pro Football Weekly are next in line on their top 100.

In fact, the word on the street is that "Huddle itself" waits until it's seen Gosselin's submission before it finalizes its own! Truth or fiction, it demonstrates Gosselin's reputation.

 

[mgteich]

Huddle has been publishing their lists and mocks for many weeks. But, if I were them, I too would consider reviewing Gosselin's input before giving my final mock and board. The reason I don't think this is the case is because the Huddle final mock hasn't been all that good.

In fact, the word on the street is that "Huddle itself" waits until it's seen Gosselin's submission before it finalizes its own! Truth or fiction, it demonstrates Gosselin's reputation.