Miguel

[PATRIOTS-80]

I'm a long-time lurker who rarely posts but enjoys your capology reports. I have a ? on what you think.

Is it possible that BB/SP could have decided that this years FA class doesn't have that much "value," and therefore, instead of spending like drunken sailors on this year's FA, causing cap-casualty problems in the next couple of years they could decide to do something different. Is it possible that instead of doing what they have the last couple of years (restructuring and extending contracts in order to have a current lower cap), that they frontload some contracts this year (like Sey or Branchs), and thus having really low cap #'s in the future (which might have better FA). Especially considering most of the league seems to be spending all their $$ on this year's FA.

The reason I thought of this is that if most of the league mortgages the future, all the players who are under contract are going to want a lot of $$ because the market went up. And therefore, in the next couple of years teams who mortgaged the future for players, all of sudden won't be able to pay for players whose contracts are expiring in the next three years.

I doubt that strategy would be very popular amongst the posters here, but I am mostly asking if that is a possibility.

 

[Pats726]

I think this may be reasonable..and makes sense..but it is still the first wek of free agency...and it is rare that BB/SP do anything the first week. So given that fact and that FAs may wish for a lot more money this year..with the jump in the cap, it makes sense to wait at least until the prices come down. Simple economics...you don't buy at high prices...when what you are buying is worth less. Well..I would also be interested to hear what he says about it. There are still a bunch of good FAs there..but at what price?? And the money is drying up some. But you are correct..a few years down the line, teams may have less money and the Pats may have a bit more of a chance to get value.
I think many of the posters here understand that and know they will sign players if they can get good value for the money..irregardless of the market and conditions. I wonder if BB/SP did not understand how this market was??
Kind of didn't calculate teams would pay a lot more?? thinking more WillieMcG especially. The first week has been a drunken sailer type of spending...and the Patriots have never entered that mind set..which is why they are where they are...always competing.

 

[mgteich]

I've been considering the same. For example, if we extend Sey, should he have a 2006 salary of $1M or $5M, with the same total?

We've already done some of that by not restructuring (and stretching out)several millions in roster bonuses. I don't think we'll see much really obvious, but the above made about $3M difference. We might see Gorin with an LTBE incentive of $3M again which isn't met and therefore money is push into 2007. Or we might simply see a higher than minimum 2006 salary for some of the free agents.

The bottom line is that we won't stretch to add the last million to this year, by deferring. My guess is that before we are done we will have kept $5M in 2006 that could ahve been deferred if we wanted to.

I'm a long-time lurker who rarely posts but enjoys your capology reports. I have a ? on what you think.

Is it possible that BB/SP could have decided that this years FA class doesn't have that much "value," and therefore, instead of spending like drunken sailors on this year's FA, causing cap-casualty problems in the next couple of years they could decide to do something different. Is it possible that instead of doing what they have the last couple of years (restructuring and extending contracts in order to have a current lower cap), that they frontload some contracts this year (like Sey or Branchs), and thus having really low cap #'s in the future (which might have better FA). Especially considering most of the league seems to be spending all their $$ on this year's FA.

The reason I thought of this is that if most of the league mortgages the future, all the players who are under contract are going to want a lot of $$ because the market went up. And therefore, in the next couple of years teams who mortgaged the future for players, all of sudden won't be able to pay for players whose contracts are expiring in the next three years.

I doubt that strategy would be very popular amongst the posters here, but I am mostly asking if that is a possibility.

 

[arrellbee]

I was also wondering the same thing

Another idle speculation.

I wonder, if the Patriots are looking toward next year as being a MUCH more reasonably priced market for free agents, whether they might front load any deals or restructures they do make this year taking advantage of this years cap space in effect leaving free more future cap space.

As I say, just speculation.

However, I am pretty doubtful that an extension will done soon for either Seymour or Deion. They (and/or their agents) are going to absolutely be looking for deals in terms of this years funny money. The Patriots are simply not going to do deals on those terms even if they have $20M to spend IMHO. If Seymour is at all smart, he should look in a crystal ball and not be very happy about what next year may look like with a lot less free agent money around. Consequently, if he's smart, he (and Branch) should probably take reasonable deals in terms of probable money next year and get the money now without the risk of career ending injury this year (maybe they should chat with Ty Law). If the Patriots were to bend a little and compromise because they do have dollars available this year, it seems like it would be done months from now after they have had a chance to see if there are other free agents that they want to spend money on this year.

 

[mgteich]

Seymour has his needs and wants.
I don't think he wants the most money possible. But he does want to be the highest paid DL in the league. Personally, I have no problem with that. Having a DL count $8M against the cap is fine. Colvin is almost $6M.

The bonus can be split between 2006 and 2007.

I was also wondering the same thing

However, I am pretty doubtful that an extension will done soon for either Seymour or Deion. They (and/or their agents) are going to absolutely be looking for deals in terms of this years funny money. The Patriots are simply not going to do deals on those terms even if they have $20M to spend IMHO. If Seymour is at all smart, he should look in a crystal ball and not be very happy about what next year may look like with a lot less free agent money around. Consequently, if he's smart, he (and Branch) should probably take reasonable deals in terms of probable money next year and get the money now without the risk of career ending injury this year (maybe they should chat with Ty Law). If the Patriots were to bend a little and compromise because they do have dollars available this year, it seems like it would be done months from now after they have had a chance to see if there are other free agents that they want to spend money on this year.

 

[Miguel]

Is it possible that BB/SP could have decided that this years FA class doesn't have that much "value," and therefore, instead of spending like drunken sailors on this year's FA, causing cap-casualty problems in the next couple of years they could decide to do something different.

Is it possible?? Yes. Do I think that BB/SP agree with your thinking?? No.
Why??
1.) The players that the Patriots typically sign are not the ones who sign big-money deals in the 1st week.
2.) Their inaction this year is typical of their behavior.

Please note that I do not accept your premise that those who have spent money in the early days of free agency will necessarily face cap-casualty problems in the near future.

Is it possible that instead of doing what they have the last couple of years (restructuring and extending contracts in order to have a current lower cap), that they frontload some contracts this year (like Sey or Branchs), and thus having really low cap #'s in the future (which might have better FA).

A very reasonable presumption.

Especially considering most of the league seems to be spending all their $$ on this year's FA.The reason I thought of this is that if most of the league mortgages the future, all the players who are under contract are going to want a lot of $$ because the market went up. And therefore, in the next couple of years teams who mortgaged the future for players, all of sudden won't be able to pay for players whose contracts are expiring in the next three years.

I do not accept the premise that teams (except for the Redskins ) have mortgaged their future. There will always be teams bidding for player's services in the 1st week of free agency. A player does not need 32 teams to bid on his services to get a huge contract. He only needs one.

I doubt that strategy would be very popular amongst the posters here, but I am mostly asking if that is a possibility.

It is. I happen to think that the Patriots will soon sign a good number of low to middle tier free agents.

 

[patpatriot]

hey!

Lurker guy. That's my idea! Only much more articulately expressed. To quote my daugher "Stop Copying Me!"

RE: Miguel,

You wouldn't happen to know where Patrice Lumumba University is would you Old Mole?

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Is it possible?? Yes.
But I happen to think that the Patriots will soon sign a good number of low to middle tier free agents.

so basically, you're saying its possible they frontload Sey and Branch's potential contracts, but you don't think it is probable because you think they will use the cap space on middle tier FA. Right?

 

[Miguel]

so basically, you're saying its possible they frontload Sey and Branch's potential contracts, but you don't think it is probable because you think they will use the cap space on middle tier FA. Right?

To be clearer, I will be surprised if the Pats frontload both Sey's and Branch's contracts because I expect the Pats to use a good portion of their cap space on middle tier FAs.