Yes, that's certainly a good point and something that I'm sure will be taken into consideration, along with maybe even another CB pick--although I'm not sure if that would necessarily be a priority for a top 3 round choice anymore (CB).
I think Belichick's feelings on Tavon Wilson's potential and the ins/outs of how he progressed throughout last season will definitely be a factor in that decision too.
Besides WR and DL--which I think are obvious choices for both now and the future (in both FA and the draft actually), I'm seeing a couple of positions like interior OL and DB. Aside from those positions, and of course Belichick may not agree with my "expert analysis"
I'd think that we could have at least 1-2 picks that can be an outright luxury/bonus pick that could really be used anywhere, especially if he trades down and acquires an additional choice.
The good thing is that we seem to have a pick or two in the
bonus category just about every year lately, so that is obviously a positive in how this team is run. In most instances they don't wait until the last minute to restock, although every NFL team will always have a position or two that they need to focus on in the draft every year; but as a whole, we tend to address situations a year ahead in many instances, and safety could certainly be a focus again.
The only real needs that I see are the depth and future of both the WR and DL positions, and not just because we lack a player or two at the moment. Other than that, our other lesser needs may be taken in a number of ways, but your point about a developmental safety should definitely be a possibility.
I've mentioned in a couple of posts that I've heard that the Pats are very happy with TWilson's rookie season.
Let me explain how I "know" this. I have a source who is NOT on the inside, but he's on the "inside" enough that he has the ear of a couple of people who actually ARE on the inside. Of course they aren't blabbing things to him, but occasional they drop a gem, and since he knows my passion about the Pats, he passes them on to me.
This one about Wilson he told me back in late December, which was about the time Wilson was surpassing Chung on the depth chart.
The whole point being that while many people on this board still judge Wilson on one play in his 3rd NFL game, and hate the pick, the Patriots' FO is still very happy with it.
As to this draft, I think you can measure how far this defense has come the last 2 years, by this. Last season the Pats defense improved, but had to give significant snaps to 4 rookies. This year, even if the Pats draft defense with their first 2 picks again, its very unlikely that even one rookie will be needed to start or play significant snaps THIS season
This is really a LUXURY draft and its probably good we don't have a lot of picks. If we can grab just 3 players who eventually become 4 year contributors, it will have worked out well.
I think we are seeing the start of a new era of FA. I think we are seeing the first impact of the new CBA where players only have to stay with one team 4 years. Just 5 years ago most players were locked into their teams 5 and 6 years. A lot of those 4 year players are starting to hit market. One less year is like adding another 20% to the talent pool, and its having an effect. and we are seeing it now. The Effect is more good players creating lower prices and a LOT fewer big contracts. There are still a lot of solid mid level players without jobs or even getting a sniff at a job. Karlos Dansby is a good football player, and I haven't heard his name mentioned ONCE this off season
While the Franchise number for most positions is $10MM or more, teams have come to the realization that they can't have more than 3 of those players on the roster and be economically viable for long. The Pats have found a sound model. They have 3 of the big contracts in Brady, Wilfolk, and Mankins, but they have invested the great bulk of their money into a very large "middle class". According to Miguel, after you get past the "big 3" there are currently 25 players who have cap numbers between 1 and 5 million and most of those are UNDER $3MM (18). When they finally break camp that number is likely to be 30 or real close to it.
The Pats are STILL the model of how to operate a salary structure. They still make their share of mistakes, but by and large they have consistently won because they have understood that football is a numbers game, more than any other pro sport. That teams win, not with stars, but with a strong middle class that can withstand the rigors of an NFL season. And when you break it down the Pats have won, not because they had the best top 22, but because they had best bottom 30.
Ooops I seem to have gone on a rambling rant. Sorry.