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Mexican Swine Flu pandemic risk

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Holy Diver, Apr 24, 2009.

  1. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    Jason Gale
    Bloomberg
    April 24, 2009
    Disease trackers are trying to determine whether a previously unseen strain of influenza in the U.S. is related to more than 130 cases of severe respiratory illness in Mexico and may spark a pandemic.


    A new variant of H1N1 swine influenza has sickened at least seven patients in California and Texas, the Atlanta-based U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said yesterday. Mexico’s Health Minister Jose Cordova canceled classes in the capital, Mexico City, today and recommended citizens avoid public places after 20 fatalities from an illness possibly caused by a flu virus.

    Scientists in both countries and Canada are studying the illnesses to determine whether they pose a larger public health threat. A pandemic can start when a novel influenza type-A virus, including swine flu, begins spreading, since no one has a natural immunity. The so-called 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, which may have killed as many as 50 million people, began when an avian flu virus jumped to people, experts said.
  2. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    What's weird is that it is a combination of swine, human and avian viruses from Europe and Asia but it pops up in Mexico.....Without sounding like a conspiracy nut, has there been any talk of a bio-terrorism angle????
  3. PressCoverage

    PressCoverage Banned

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    How cautious, yet transparent...

    You've just lent credence to every conspiracy you've ever railed against.... Amazing what a bit of evidence and intellectual honesty can do for a thought process.
  4. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    Good thing we have control of the borde...nevermind.
  5. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    Press,
    I think you may have me confused with someone else. I don't think I ever railed against conspiracies (having been on this board long enough, some have). My point which I guess you consider intellectually dishonest is that most pandemics are a combination or mutation of two types of viruses (not 3 as in this case) and most are usually endemic to a region and spread from that area through either mutation or cross species transmission, as has been the case with SARS and Ebola virus. Granted with air travel, viruses can spread rapidly. Here not only do you have a triad of viruses but you have a mixture from two very distant areas.
    My point was that it is suspicious and worthy of investigation. That's my evidence coming from a science background and virology classes many years ago in college and grad school.
  6. PressCoverage

    PressCoverage Banned

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    I did... you're right... apologies entirely
  7. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This AM there are reports it hit a boarding school in NY..
  8. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It's Bush's Fault
  9. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    Jets fans or Giants fans?

    ....sorry....my bad.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2009
  10. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    No problem. I realize that my user name can confuse me with others.............
  11. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    Perhaps it was me. I'm not a big fan of "the theorists" (most anyway). I will grant you that all of this stuff is VERY TROUBLING. Genetic mutations of viruses is not incredibly easy to predict, but they do seem to follows predictable "backtrackable" processes.

    This one is particularly particular. It's like rolling the bad of all into one. It could be an incredible disaster though. A global, deadly flu pandemic is a doomsday scenario right now.

    That said...... experts have been predicting it for YEARS.
  12. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    In runs in 20 year cycles with the worst having been in 1918 (which is why the World Series was so early that year- they cancelled the rest of the season due to the outbreak) but other outbreaks have been in the ten year offyears of those cycles such as the 1968 outbreak. Using those parameters it has been predicted for years. But, there are those who wrote about using or manipulating influenza for malicious purposes....
    The Flu Factor In Bioterrorism

    I don't even want to think what a toll a pandemic would take, in lives and its effect on the economy, now at the worst possible of times.
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2009
  13. Patriot_in_NY

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    Totally agree.

    Although, it certainly seems "slightly odd" in that it's rare that the flu virus contains genetic markers for influenza disease in 3 species (swine, avian, human). It's not unheard of. See HERE and HERE for 2 separate examples.

    Not discounting the possibility of bioterrorism for sure, just saying, more needs to be known. One troubling factor is that this seems to be following a similar early track as the 1918 (an presumably other pandemics).

    There seems to be two manifestations as the disease as the cases locate so far in the US have had mild presentations, while those in Mexico seem to be showing much higher mortality rates (up to 6% if to believe the 850/59 deaths #'s). That is pretty similar to 1918 where a first milder disease was followed (overlapped) by a much more virulent strain that was minimal altered through recombination.

    We'll have to see how the epidemiology goes. If it goes that way, you'll likely find that the mild disease may have been around (unnoticed) for several months. The scarier thing is that the "seemingly" mild version found in the US has the same genetic markers that cause pretty high mortality (for the flu) in Mexico. Also, reports indicates that young adult and middle-age are among the hardest hit (as opposed to old and very young). That was the hallmark of the 1918 pandemic.

    Scary SH!T either way.
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2009
  14. DarrylS

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    Pretty sure that this will descend into a opportunity for some of our religious zealots to rant and rave about homosexuality, craigslist or some such nonsense...
  15. Patsfanin Philly

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    Just when this was turning into a rational, reasonable discussion about something that could impact all of us in a negative way......
    Getting back to the analogy of 1918, back then there wasn't a global village to facilitate the spread of the disease. Now with international air travel, it is likely to all points in a shorter period of time....(stating the obvious)
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2009
  16. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    I'm pretty sure that this reasonable discussion about something that could impact all of us in a negative way, that some shallow-minded ideologue will come in and try to change it into something it's not.
  17. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    From what I understand flu epidemics strike predominantly heterosexuals who, by their own choice, live a heterosexual lifestyle. What's more they also strike children. Who has children? That's right, heterosexuals.

    I'm sorry, it's hard not to see the hand of an angry Zeus in all of this.

    PFnV
  18. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Biotechnology Company Provided Advance Warning of Mexican H1N1 "Swine Flu" Virus Outbreak


    Biotechnology Company Provided Advance Warning of Mexican H1N1 "Swine Flu" Virus Outbreak

    April 25, 2009 -- Replikins, Ltd. published a FluForecast® warning in April 7th, 2008, a year before the recent Mexico and California H1N1 cases. The company was able to state the likelihood of H1N1 outbreaks based on its patented Replikin Count™ genomics technology, which examines specific regions in virus genes which have been linked with past epidemics.

    The April 2008 announcement, attached below as published on the Web, stated that in H1N1 the company had then detected the highest concentrations of these specific regions ever seen, except for those from the 1918 pandemic which killed millions of people. Today, the company is actively pursuing licensing partnerships to apply its groundbreaking technology not only to early warning systems, but also to the development of synthetic vaccines to prevent or slow future epidemics.
  19. N.Eman

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    i hope this blows over soon. 'Tallica june 7th \m/
  20. weswelker#83

    weswelker#83 Rookie

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    +1 :D
    Thanks for the laugh.
  21. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    God, i hope we don't start offending people or violating their civil liberties, if they have the Flu don't tell them.

    I wouldn't be surprised to find out that Haliburton might be involved in all this.
  22. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Swine:
    Mexico, Mexico, Mexico thats all you hear on the news, isn't it "Racist" to keep mentioning Mexico, we can only hope that this doesn't offend all of our "Illegal Alien" friends.

    If you see any Illegal Alien's kiss them so they will know your not a racist or afraid of their germs.

    BRING AN ILLEGAL MEXICAN ALIEN HOME TO DINNER TELL YOUR KIDS TO KISS THEM.

    GOD DAMN AMERICA
  23. Real World

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    Well, 103 dead so far.

    Mexican swine flu spreads to Europe

    Mon Apr 27, 2009 9:11am EDT

    26 Apr 2009
    By Catherine Bremer

    MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Governments around the world acted to stem a possible flu pandemic on Monday, as a virus that has killed 103 people in Mexico and spread to North America was confirmed to have reached Europe.

    While the swine flu virus has so far killed no one outside Mexico, the fact that it has proved able to spread quickly between humans has raised fears that the world may finally be facing the flu pandemic that scientists say is long overdue.
  24. STFarmy

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    I treat this story with contempt and skepticism. Remember the bird flu? I realize this may be different and that a pandemic can happen, but for now I consider it the news trying to get some fear ratings.

    Some news show (didn't see which one) had a YOUTUBE VIDEO of some normal schlep talking about why she thought this one was different. An unqualified opinion from a fraudulent newsertainment show. The more they talk about it, the more more contempt I treat it with. Last I checked there was a picture of someone with the breathing mask and a spooky headline about pandemics on Yahoo.
  25. Harry Boy

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  26. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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  27. Rossmci90

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    2 confirmed cases in Scotland now, with 7 other suspected cases throughout the UK.

    Still, nobody outside of Mexico killed which tells me there isn't much to worry about yet.
  28. wistahpatsfan

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  29. Run DMC

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    I love how this "pandemic" starts literally when TS is about THTF for the former Nazi regime under Boosh. Don't worry about prosecuting any of the US war criminals, we have this outbreak of the swine flu to deal with.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2009
  30. IcyPatriot

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    Ron Paul on this topic ... of course everyone needs to keep an eye on this but 13,000 people died of TB last year ... can you spell hype? This is a media driven story and there will be political over reaction. Next will be the vaccines which will kill more than a few who never needed to die.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJiTStZtrlE
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2009

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