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Mexican Swine Flu pandemic risk

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Holy Diver, Apr 24, 2009.

  1. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Pro Bowl Player

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    Jason Gale
    Bloomberg
    April 24, 2009
    Disease trackers are trying to determine whether a previously unseen strain of influenza in the U.S. is related to more than 130 cases of severe respiratory illness in Mexico and may spark a pandemic.


    A new variant of H1N1 swine influenza has sickened at least seven patients in California and Texas, the Atlanta-based U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said yesterday. Mexico’s Health Minister Jose Cordova canceled classes in the capital, Mexico City, today and recommended citizens avoid public places after 20 fatalities from an illness possibly caused by a flu virus.

    Scientists in both countries and Canada are studying the illnesses to determine whether they pose a larger public health threat. A pandemic can start when a novel influenza type-A virus, including swine flu, begins spreading, since no one has a natural immunity. The so-called 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, which may have killed as many as 50 million people, began when an avian flu virus jumped to people, experts said.
     
  2. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    What's weird is that it is a combination of swine, human and avian viruses from Europe and Asia but it pops up in Mexico.....Without sounding like a conspiracy nut, has there been any talk of a bio-terrorism angle????
     
  3. PressCoverage

    PressCoverage Banned

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    How cautious, yet transparent...

    You've just lent credence to every conspiracy you've ever railed against.... Amazing what a bit of evidence and intellectual honesty can do for a thought process.
     
  4. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Good thing we have control of the borde...nevermind.
     
  5. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Press,
    I think you may have me confused with someone else. I don't think I ever railed against conspiracies (having been on this board long enough, some have). My point which I guess you consider intellectually dishonest is that most pandemics are a combination or mutation of two types of viruses (not 3 as in this case) and most are usually endemic to a region and spread from that area through either mutation or cross species transmission, as has been the case with SARS and Ebola virus. Granted with air travel, viruses can spread rapidly. Here not only do you have a triad of viruses but you have a mixture from two very distant areas.
    My point was that it is suspicious and worthy of investigation. That's my evidence coming from a science background and virology classes many years ago in college and grad school.
     
  6. PressCoverage

    PressCoverage Banned

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    I did... you're right... apologies entirely
     
  7. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This AM there are reports it hit a boarding school in NY..
     
  8. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It's Bush's Fault
     
  9. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Pro Bowl Player

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    Jets fans or Giants fans?

    ....sorry....my bad.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2009
  10. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    No problem. I realize that my user name can confuse me with others.............
     
  11. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Perhaps it was me. I'm not a big fan of "the theorists" (most anyway). I will grant you that all of this stuff is VERY TROUBLING. Genetic mutations of viruses is not incredibly easy to predict, but they do seem to follows predictable "backtrackable" processes.

    This one is particularly particular. It's like rolling the bad of all into one. It could be an incredible disaster though. A global, deadly flu pandemic is a doomsday scenario right now.

    That said...... experts have been predicting it for YEARS.
     
  12. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    In runs in 20 year cycles with the worst having been in 1918 (which is why the World Series was so early that year- they cancelled the rest of the season due to the outbreak) but other outbreaks have been in the ten year offyears of those cycles such as the 1968 outbreak. Using those parameters it has been predicted for years. But, there are those who wrote about using or manipulating influenza for malicious purposes....
    The Flu Factor In Bioterrorism

    I don't even want to think what a toll a pandemic would take, in lives and its effect on the economy, now at the worst possible of times.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2009
  13. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Totally agree.

    Although, it certainly seems "slightly odd" in that it's rare that the flu virus contains genetic markers for influenza disease in 3 species (swine, avian, human). It's not unheard of. See HERE and HERE for 2 separate examples.

    Not discounting the possibility of bioterrorism for sure, just saying, more needs to be known. One troubling factor is that this seems to be following a similar early track as the 1918 (an presumably other pandemics).

    There seems to be two manifestations as the disease as the cases locate so far in the US have had mild presentations, while those in Mexico seem to be showing much higher mortality rates (up to 6% if to believe the 850/59 deaths #'s). That is pretty similar to 1918 where a first milder disease was followed (overlapped) by a much more virulent strain that was minimal altered through recombination.

    We'll have to see how the epidemiology goes. If it goes that way, you'll likely find that the mild disease may have been around (unnoticed) for several months. The scarier thing is that the "seemingly" mild version found in the US has the same genetic markers that cause pretty high mortality (for the flu) in Mexico. Also, reports indicates that young adult and middle-age are among the hardest hit (as opposed to old and very young). That was the hallmark of the 1918 pandemic.

    Scary SH!T either way.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2009
  14. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Pretty sure that this will descend into a opportunity for some of our religious zealots to rant and rave about homosexuality, craigslist or some such nonsense...
     
  15. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Just when this was turning into a rational, reasonable discussion about something that could impact all of us in a negative way......
    Getting back to the analogy of 1918, back then there wasn't a global village to facilitate the spread of the disease. Now with international air travel, it is likely to all points in a shorter period of time....(stating the obvious)
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2009
  16. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I'm pretty sure that this reasonable discussion about something that could impact all of us in a negative way, that some shallow-minded ideologue will come in and try to change it into something it's not.
     
  17. PatsFanInVa

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    From what I understand flu epidemics strike predominantly heterosexuals who, by their own choice, live a heterosexual lifestyle. What's more they also strike children. Who has children? That's right, heterosexuals.

    I'm sorry, it's hard not to see the hand of an angry Zeus in all of this.

    PFnV
     
  18. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Biotechnology Company Provided Advance Warning of Mexican H1N1 "Swine Flu" Virus Outbreak


    Biotechnology Company Provided Advance Warning of Mexican H1N1 "Swine Flu" Virus Outbreak

    April 25, 2009 -- Replikins, Ltd. published a FluForecast® warning in April 7th, 2008, a year before the recent Mexico and California H1N1 cases. The company was able to state the likelihood of H1N1 outbreaks based on its patented Replikin Count™ genomics technology, which examines specific regions in virus genes which have been linked with past epidemics.

    The April 2008 announcement, attached below as published on the Web, stated that in H1N1 the company had then detected the highest concentrations of these specific regions ever seen, except for those from the 1918 pandemic which killed millions of people. Today, the company is actively pursuing licensing partnerships to apply its groundbreaking technology not only to early warning systems, but also to the development of synthetic vaccines to prevent or slow future epidemics.
     
  19. N.Eman

    N.Eman Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    i hope this blows over soon. 'Tallica june 7th \m/
     
  20. weswelker#83

    weswelker#83 In the Starting Line-Up

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    +1 :D
    Thanks for the laugh.
     

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