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McCain is in trouble

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Holy Diver, Oct 7, 2008.

  1. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    The polls are slipping for your boy.

    Battleground States (source http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ )

    Obama McCain Spread

    Colorado 48.0 44.0 Obama +4.0
    Ohio 48.9 45.1 Obama +3.8
    Florida 48.4 45.3 Obama +3.1
    Nevada 49.3 47.5 Obama +1.8
    Missouri 47.8 47.5 Obama +0.3
    Virginia 49.9 45.1 Obama +4.8


    SO, whats John McCain's strategy to pull even or ahead? Does he use the debates tonight to forge a new strategy? Seems over the last few days his campaign has taken the form of the Clinton campaign. Not sure if anyone in the McCain camp knows that Clinton lost, and they might wanna try a different direction, other than 'terrorist fist pumping - reverend wright knowing - empty suit'. But that seems to be the talking points given out....

    Just a heads up to the McCain people.
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2008
  2. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You always have to remember the "Bradley Factor" when looking at these polls, as there can be a deviation of -7%.....
  3. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    Bradley factor .....

    I'd call it more of a theory than a factor at this point. Race relations have come a long way...even over the past few years. The fact that we have an african american nominee tells you such things. I agree that this could be something to keep an eye on. It will be a difficult thing to measure, as with the NH Primaries told us (Although I still smell a rat, it was like a 20 point swing iin 1 day?)
    But more important are these 'factors':

    THE BUSH FACTOR (this factor, factors in a few more factors):

    The Negative Campaigning factor:

    The Palin factor:

    The deregulation factor:

    The economic factor:

    The warS factors:

    The Jobless factor:

    The deficit factor:


    Obama being a black man, has got to be 3rd at best on the most racist of voter who lies to pollsters. They have way more to worry about these days, plus I think you will be seeing a record number of young voters this year. The younger the voter, the less racist the TEND to be.

    A very well placed republican strategist talked with me about this very same thing yesterday...This is what the McCain camp is holding on to. A theory.
  4. Seymour93

    Seymour93 Rookie

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    But there can also be a reverse Bradley Effect where black turnout is disproportionately higher compared to previous elections.
  5. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    It's not looking good at all but CBS and Gallup both have McCain within 3-4 points which has closed since the VP debate and state polls are almost always behind national polls so these state polls aren't going to be too accurate regardless of when they were taken.

    Still, I'm resigned to President Changetowhat at this point.

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