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Margus Hunt or Devin Taylor. Why Not?

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by manxman2601, Mar 3, 2013.

  1. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Compare and contrast:



    Chandler Jones

    Ht 6-5
    Wt 266
    Arms 35.5
    40 4.87
    10 split 1.63
    Bench 22
    3 Cone 7.07
    Vert 35

    Margus Hunt

    Ht 6-8
    Wt 277
    Arms 33.75
    40 4.6
    10 split 1.62
    Bench 38
    3 Cone 7.07
    Vert 35

    Devin Taylor

    Ht 6-7
    Wt 266
    Arms 36
    40 4.72
    10 split 1.60
    Bench 14
    3 Cone 6.89
    Vert 35




    What we cannot know is:

    1. Whether BB sees the need to draft a DE
    2. How either Hunt or Taylor interview in relation to Chandler Jones
    3. BB's view of the respective college programs

    However, leaving those things aside, the similarities between all three are intriguing to say the least. Devin Taylor is the most athletic of the three (just), particularly in space whilst Hunt has the best power/speed combination. Where Chandler Jones wins is his consistency, both Hunt and Taylor tend to try and win with their athleticism whereas Jones is the (much) better technician. But having said that, both Hunt and Taylor have the same or better athletic upside that could be excitingly unlocked with the right coaching.

    Watching all three back to back was a really interesting exercise. I would give Chandler Jones the edge on the others but not by any great margin. Hunt's strength gives him the edge over Taylor who is a little too lean. But, Taylor's athleticism really stands out at times and he makes plays with those long arms - I found myself more excited watching Taylor than the other two interestingly.

    I'm starting to wonder whether Margus Hunt might not be a contender for our first pick this year - physically and athletically he ticks a lot of boxes. I'm also now much more comfortable if Devin Taylor becomes our pick at some stage. I should have studied him earlier.
     
  2. Wilfork#75

    Wilfork#75 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I think the biggest difference between Jones and the other two is simply their ability to play football. Hunt and Taylor might be freak athletes, but they are both mediocre football players. That might be okay for Taylor who could be a good developmental option in the 5th round, but to spend a 1st round pick on a guy who's best on-field skill is blocking kicks doesn't sit well with me. I am all for taking risks with athletes in the mid rounds, but Hunt has to be the most overrated player in this draft in my mind. Athleticism is great, but that doesn't always equate to being a great football player. At least a guy like Ziggy Ansah has flashed the ability to be absolutely dominant which is why I can understand a high grade, Hunt hasn't shown me that. Beating a Fresno State freshman RT doesn't really impress me that much.

    On Taylor, I think the reason he isn't talked about much is because he got so much love early last year as a prospect and was a complete disappointment. I know a lot of us really liked his athleticism, especially his ability to drop into coverage, but he never stepped up like many had hoped.
     
  3. stelfans

    stelfans On the Game Day Roster

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    Agree with everything.

    If they want to take a flyer on a DE this year my option would be Malliciah Goodman. Or Joe Kruger maybe.
     
  4. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    But beating a UConn LT does?

    We clearly aren't watching the same tape if you are telling me that Margus Hunt is "overrated" whilst Chandler Jones is that much better a football player. He's the better technician sure, but he's also one of the most ungainly sportsmen I've ever seen. Watch his combine footage - it's like watching a newly born horse who's drank 20 pints of lager.
     
  5. doesntmatter1

    doesntmatter1 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    First of all, I believe alex okafor is the closest thing to a chandler jones clone. I can say I have seen Devin Taylor play many times and I truly feel that he just sucks. Now margus hunt is interesting. If we can get him to play under control he can be a dt,de, or even a lb with that athleticism. I would also expect to see a few batted passes.
     
  6. Wilfork#75

    Wilfork#75 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I also thought Chandler Jones was overrated last year based on the tape, but it turns out that was because of a back injury. I would have no problem taking Hunt as a late 3rd rounder based off his athletecism, but in the 1st round I think that is a huge reach. I would much rather have Tank Carradine, Datone Jones, Alex Okafor, Sam Montgomery and maybe even Brandon Jenkins above Hunt. In a draft that is so deep, taking a raw athlete with minimal football abilities so far in the 1st round doesn't seem like a good idea to me.
     
  7. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Well I'd rather have Carradine too. I wouldn't touch Sam Montgomery in the 7th round and Jenkins and Okafor have little upside - I'd rather the prospect with a high ceiling. Jones I like but he has T-Rex arms so likely not a fit for the Patriots.
     
  8. EwanSellars

    EwanSellars On the Game Day Roster

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    i really like carradine as well and neither of those two guys interest me if we are going DE it should be carradine or walter stewart/mike catapano/joe kruger/quanterus smith in the 7th round next year is the year we get our other DE starter when we trade up for tuitt :D
     
  9. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I had to like this just for this image. :)
     
  10. wpgjets>nyjets

    wpgjets>nyjets Rookie

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    How would you guys rate the LDE in the draft for the Patriots this year?

    Carradine would probably be my pick if I was the patriots at this point (based only on what I have seen on Youtube), but it would be hard to take him in the first round, which is where I think we would need to take him.

    do you guys think Armstead is a LDE for the patriots on first and second down?

    my draft, based only on need would be something like:
    1.Carradine/Okafor
    2.Sylvester/Jesse Williams
    3.Da'rick Rogers/Hunter
     
  11. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    With Ziggy not available, Carradine would be my pick too and I'd take him in the first round - it looks like he'll be fully fit for his pro day so pre-season shouldn't be an issue.
     
  12. p8ryts

    p8ryts Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I don't care for Hunt at all. When I saw him play he didn't get off the line of scrimmage. Devin Taylor played just as advertised, not much burst but very fast in pursuit, strong, long arms. He is one of my binkies, not first round though, hope he would last until third.
     
  13. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I think it's important to remember that Hunt only started playing football in 2009. I think with improved technique he could have a nice NFL career. What I'd be curious about if I was the Patriots is can he put on another 15 pounds and keep his quickness and play 3-4 DE and 4-3 pass rushing DT. I think he could have a Justin Tuck impact inside using his quickness to beat guards. If he can improve his hand work teamed Armstead we could move back to a 3-4 and generate some interior pass rush.
     
  14. Wilfork#75

    Wilfork#75 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    After going back and looking at these pass rushers, I think Okafor is the most underrated and doesn't get the love he deserves. He isn't a flashy guy with the greatest measurables, but he gets consistent pressure and makes plays. I think he uses his hands better than most of the other guys in this draft and sets the edge well, although he could do a better job shedding to make the tackle. I don't think he will put up great athletic numbers at his pro day (he was injured for the combine), but that doesn't matter to me. He might not run a great 40, but that is made up for by a great first step. I really like his combination of length (6'4" with 33 7/8" arms), strength and explosion off the line and he would make a great compliment to Chandler Jones on passing downs.

    Here is a really good statistic breakdown of the pass rushers in this years draft, and surprisingly Okafor really stands out. This only takes into account the games the author had tape of, but the sample size was still considerable.

    A Statistical Breakdown of the Top Pass Rushers (Pt. 1, Sacks) | Second Round Stats

    Some of the key things that stand out:

    Speed to the QB
    This is a measure of how long it took each player to get to the QB for a sack. Under 3.5 seconds is a speed sack, 3.5-5 seconds is an average sack and over 5 seconds is considered a coverage sack. Out of the 8 guys in the sample, Okafor had the best average time to the QB at 3.56 seconds, ahead of both Barkevious Mingo and Dion Jordan. Also none of Okafor's sacks in this sample (11/12.5 on the season) were considered coverage sacks.

    Sack Time- 3.56 seconds
    % Coverage Sacks- 0
    % Average Sacks- 45.45%
    % Speed Sacks- 54.55%


    Type of Sack
    % Outside- 45.45%
    % Bullrush- 36.36%
    % Inside- 18.18%

    What this says to me is that Okafor is a very versatile pass rusher with the ability to win with speed, power and different moves. Compared to guys like Werner and Dion Jordan, Okafor is a much more versatile in creating pressure.

    Strength of opponents.
    The author created a strength of schedule (SOS) for the offensive line each pass rusher faced, and while not perfect should be a reasonable indicator. He also looked at % of sacks that were blocked vs unblocked.

    Okafor had the 2nd strongest SOS behind Ansah (who had a small sample size), compliling a lot of his sacks against teams that didn't give up a lot of sacks throughout the year.

    SOS- 57.90
    % Blocked- 81.82%
    % Unblocked- 18.18%

    Sacks by down
    1st- 45.45%
    2nd- 18.18%
    3rd- 36.36%

    Average rushers/blitzers team sent per down
    This is on average how many defenders a team sent after the QB each down. In theory, the higher the number the more help each pass rusher got. Okafor had the second highest number at 4.36, but the differences between most of the guys are negligible. One thing I actually noticed on tape was Okafor probably would have had at least 3-4 more sacks on the season but he was simply beat to the QB by a teammate. One play in particular stands out against WVU where he flew off the edge and was about to crush Geno Smith, but his DT got to the QB half a step earlier for the sack.

    To me this analysis really made me open my eyes and go back and look at a guy who I've really overlooked recently. The most important thing for me is that the stats backed up what I then saw on the tape and I was extremely impressed with Okafor. In the mid 2nd round I would love to take him to pair with Chandler Jones to create pressure on later downs.

    This breakdown was done by Greg Peshek at Second Round Stats and I think it is very interesting. He does a lot of statistical analysis and is working on analyzing CB's right now. He also has some pretty interesting stuff on twitter @NU_Gap
     
  15. Get it shawtaay

    Get it shawtaay Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Also worth noting the broad jumps - 10'1" for Margus Hunt and an otherwordly 10'8" for Devin Taylor.
     
  16. SeymourTrophies

    SeymourTrophies Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I would give up a lot to get to Ansah if he sees the mid to late teens.

    Devin Taylor plays like his blood sugar level is low when he engages a blocker. He's nimble, but I just feel like he'd be abused by NFL linemen. Once a blocker has a hold of him, he's toast. Hunt is incredibly fast for a man his size. I feel like with a proper coach, he could be very good. Leverage will always be an issue with Hunt though. Alex Okafor is a good guy who has the game IQ and he plays with more quickness than his combine numbers show.

    I'd take a look at Lemonier or Edwards from LSU as guys who would be a good understudy and can do a lot of the things Cunningham does. Edwards could play DT or big end in some sets. Lemonier would just be an edge guy, but he's pretty slow off of the snap.
     
  17. chicowalker

    chicowalker Pro Bowl Player

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    interesting comment re Taylor. I haven't seen him play much, but looking at the original post, his low bench press stood out. Is he simply not strong enough?

    As for Edwards, my only concern is that he never really stood out in the many LSU games I watched. Granted, they have had a lot of playmakers on defense, and they use a lot of d-linemen in their rotation. So he could be a solid player. But I wouldn't want to see him drafted high at all.
     
  18. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I was looking at him last week and trying to blow holes in his game and just couldn't do it. He's never going to be a JPP or Aldon Smith type of pass rusher but for what Bill expects he might be a nice fit.
     
  19. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    No holes in his game = good. Doesn't stand out = might be bad. If he can't stand out vs college competition, how will he fare against the top tier athletes that he will face in the pros? I like the statistical analysis on Okafor, might be worth a 2nd rounder. But sounds like a guy who might get stonewalled by pro tackles. Dunno. Reserving judgment. BB will look at the tape. Wish we had gone with Dunlap instead of Cunningham.

    20 sacks in just 3 seasons.
    Carlos Dunlap NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

    Oh well that's like wanting Mike Wallace over Brandon Tate. An exercise in futility. :p Hopefully we land a couple of impact players in this year's draft.

    PS I like Margus Hunt's length and ability to block passes/kicks. But can he consistently get to the QB? Hmm. Don't know much about Devin Taylor.
     
  20. SeymourTrophies

    SeymourTrophies Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Yeah, I think it is a strength issue, but he also doesn't have the tenacity, perhaps he knows he's not beating anyone playing like a bull. He may just not have the body type to maintain the weight you need to be a good DE.

    Edwards isn't a playmaker. He's projected 4th round or something like that, but he played the run a lot from what I saw and did a lot of contain. He rarely gets blocked out of a play. I think with a little more weight, he is a light DT. He does a lot reasonably well, and he is rarely fooled. Those are the two things that describe Patriots picks.

    Margus Hunt would be almost a role player, but in this league, that role is a bigger deal than what most would call a role. I still hmm and haw about taking Mercilus instead of Hightower. Mercilus could have never been a 3 down player in our defense, but sub rushers are a huge part of the game now, and I think we missed Mark Anderson some last year. I do think that BB thought Bequette would play that role more than he did.
     

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