Many Top Pass Rushers to become F/A:

[E Belichick Unum]

There really is another consideration in all of this. A full-time pass rusher will be in on over 400 pass plays. Granted that a lot of those plays aren't real opportunities (screens, quick slants, etc.) but even cutting the number in half, a guy with 10 sacks has a 95% failure rate.

I believe a key for the Patriots is what players do in those other 190+ snaps. Much like a "useful out" in baseball, there are many meaningful outcomes that don't show up as stats:
- Keeping a QB contained in the pocket
- Being physical and wearing out an OT
- Getting hands up and disrupting the QB's line of sight
- Requiring extra blocking focus to allow others to get better matchups
- Engaging a RB/TE and not letting them out into their pass route cleanly

There are probably more but you get the idea. The Pats have avoided guys that dive into the backfield with their hair on fire every play. If they just wanted sacks and "pressures", that strategy wouldn't make much sense. So they must be looking for something more in players that make up their pass rush. Getting 10 sacks but getting neatly escorted around the pocket with a single blocker on another 200 plays doesn't seem like a good tradeoff.

I know that this will be considered sacrilege, but can we compare the Steelers 3/4 to the Patriots 3/4 and look at QB pressure and QB sacks? I know that the Steelers create confusion and mismatches with zone blitzes, but can anybody seriously tell me that they wouldn't take Woodley or Harrison over any OLB that the Patriots have on this team? And can anybody seriously tell me that the Patriots wouldn't be a much better defense with either of those two players on the field, even if just on third down.

It isn't like we have a great defense, or even a very good defense. We have a very good defensive scheme and a great defensive coach. Our defense has a major hole on the outside and on any other team in the league it would probably be a bottom third defense. The difference maker is Belichick, which makes his refusal to address the OLB pass rushing position even more baffling. With the current offense the Pats will out score teams, put lots of points up early and take the oposing teams out of their game plan. But like the Jets in the playoffs last year, if the opposition makes just a couple of stops early and there is a drop or two early, the opposition can turn the situation around, especially if the Pats can't apply any pressure on their QB. Especially if the Patriots are still one of the worst third down defenses. Especially if the box score reads like the Jets game read, 0 sacks, 0 pressures, 0 knockdowns.

Playoffs are different than the regular season. 14 and 2 means nothing when one loss ends your season.

 

[patsfan-1982]

in a 3-4 defense the front 3 has to own the scrimmage and the pats had noting but JAG's out there at DE a 260lbs OLB is just not going to beat a 6.7 330 LT so untill the pats gets better up front and free up the OLB's there will be no pass rush in new england

 

[BlueThunder]

what if the hurries cause TD throws?

Then your players back in coverage aren't doing their job...You can't penalize the rushing DE/LB for that.

 

[sbpatfan]

I know that this will be considered sacrilege, but can we compare the Steelers 3/4 to the Patriots 3/4 and look at QB pressure and QB sacks? I know that the Steelers create confusion and mismatches with zone blitzes, but can anybody seriously tell me that they wouldn't take Woodley or Harrison over any OLB that the Patriots have on this team? And can anybody seriously tell me that the Patriots wouldn't be a much better defense with either of those two players on the field, even if just on third down.

It isn't like we have a great defense, or even a very good defense. We have a very good defensive scheme and a great defensive coach. Our defense has a major hole on the outside and on any other team in the league it would probably be a bottom third defense. The difference maker is Belichick, which makes his refusal to address the OLB pass rushing position even more baffling. With the current offense the Pats will out score teams, put lots of points up early and take the oposing teams out of their game plan. But like the Jets in the playoffs last year, if the opposition makes just a couple of stops early and there is a drop or two early, the opposition can turn the situation around, especially if the Pats can't apply any pressure on their QB. Especially if the Patriots are still one of the worst third down defenses. Especially if the box score reads like the Jets game read, 0 sacks, 0 pressures, 0 knockdowns.

Playoffs are different than the regular season. 14 and 2 means nothing when one loss ends your season.

Harrison and Woodley are also surrounded by a bunch of great, experienced veterans. They're getting old now, but that Pitt defense has had the same core since the early 2000s.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

in a 3-4 defense the front 3 has to own the scrimmage and the pats had noting but JAG's out there at DE a 260lbs OLB is just not going to beat a 6.7 330 LT so untill the pats gets better up front and free up the OLB's there will be no pass rush in new england

The thing is the front three did well all year last season. The Pats were 11th in the league in rushing defense but 25th in the league in total yards. They are 32 out of 32 in third down defense.

The problem wasn't the front three, the problem was pressure on the passer in critical situations.

 

[Don Kipines]

The thing is the front three did well all year last season. The Pats were 11th in the league in rushing defense but 25th in the league in total yards. They are 32 out of 32 in third down defense.

The problem wasn't the front three, the problem was pressure on the passer in critical situations.

I think people are underestimating the negative impact of the poor pass coverage by the linebackers. It wasn't just that we had Arrington logging major minutes and Chung playing third corner. We also had Jermaine Cunningham, who never in his life covered anyone, dropping from time to time. Ninkovitch, though he had a good game against Miami, was also dropping a lot. Spikes was very raw in pass coverage as well. Guyton was really the only linebacker who made plays in pass coverage.

If the Patriots can tighten up the back end just a little (the return of Bodden and the addition of Dowling should help) and get guys like Spikes and Cunningham some more seasoning, and then add maybe one outside linebacker who excels in pass coverage (I'm thinking about Lawson in San Francisco, or maybe Brandon Johnson from Cincinnati), that should help a lot. People forget that during the Super Bowl years, the Pats had some pretty excellent coverage guys in the linebacking corps, from Bruschi to Phifer to Vrabel.

Especially when you consider that the the Pats' outside coverage, with McCourty and Bodden, should be very good, the real key is going to be tightening up the zones underneath and down the seam. If they can bottle up those quick outs and three-step drops, they should be a lot better. They already were better last year from a tackling standpoint (the 2009 team was horrid at bringing down backs in the open field), now they just need to be a little quicker in their reads, I think, and they should be at least okay, if not very good.

 

[BlueThunder]

I believe BB thinks his pass D will be better also with Bodden back healthy and another year under the youngster's belts....let's see what his FA signings bring....

With a prolific offense, the D doesn't have to be much better...but it sure will help in the games where the O seems to take the week off

 

[andrewgarrr]

And can anybody seriously tell me that the Patriots wouldn't be a much better defense with either of those two players on the field, even if just on third down.

Because investing $8+ million a year to a player who plays solely on third down is detrimental to the team building process. Salary cap?

 

[Urgent]

Interesting football discussion.

In response to several challenging questions:
Is it better to have a rusher who racks up 10 sacks a year, but is terrible on 200 other plays, or someone good on most plays but who only totals 3 sacks?
That's really pushing the question of the value of a pass rusher. The common stat of the success rate of OT's and pass rushers points to the rareness of a sack. But it's far more often the result of relentless hustle than pure luck. I think we can assume a pretty good correlation between sack, pressure, and hits. Yes, we can all agree that the sack stat, alone, is over-rated. But looking, like the referenced article did, at sack-hurry-hit is a pretty solid, holistic view.

Isn't paying $8mm for a pass-rushing specialist bad cap management?Well, not if that player turns around a game. How many innings does a closer actually pitch? Yes, no salary cap, but teams have budgets, and pay players based on what they think they are worth. If a pure third-down pass rusher could affect games and generate one more win a season, that's pretty valuable. And, if this is in comparison to Woodley and Harrison, I'm not sure those guys would have been unable to set the edge in the Pats scheme. In fact, they are the stout player that often excels at setting the edge. Yes, versatile is better. But the Patriots, as well as many teams, pay specialists. They have had many two-down specialists over time, like Ted Washington and Vince Wilfork for much of his career. I believe Vinatieri was one of the highest paid, if not the top, kicker during his last year or two. The Patriots added Moss, Welker, and Donte Stallworth in the same season (Stallworth was paid about a third more than Welker; Welker cost more in draft picks) - they were paying one of them to be the third receiver. And so forth.

A 260lbs OLB is just not going to beat a 6.7 330 LT.
Well, that's exactly what they are paid to do. Most of the best pass rushers, whether Ends or Linebackers, are about that size.

The discussion started out comparing different potentially available rushers.

I'm intrigued by a couple different guys:

Manny Lawson - picked up the 34 slowly, but really improved in 2011. He has excelled in coverage - and would instantly provide a huge upgrade on coverage over the middle or out of the backfield - and has improved as a pass rusher. He's much lighter than the prototypical Pats OLB, but he has the size, speed, agility, and 34 experience. If all he is lacking is weight, I assume the Patriots could work out a 'pro program' for weight gain.

Charles Johnson - stouter, and might really struggle in coverage, but he could be the prototypical third-down rusher discussed in several posts above. At 24, would seem to have plenty of upside. Probably lacks versatility; size closer to AD Thomas than the Pats phenotype.

Matt Roth - my concern here is that he seems to do what Cunningham can do, with more experience. Very good against the run, decent in coverage, decent rusher. I'd rather reach for a complementary player. I think both are run-side SOLB's. Lawson and Johnson are more WOLB's.

Other thoughts on the available players?

 

[RayClay]

The thing is the front three did well all year last season. The Pats were 11th in the league in rushing defense but 25th in the league in total yards. They are 32 out of 32 in third down defense.

The problem wasn't the front three, the problem was pressure on the passer in critical situations.

Oh come on. Do you really think Wilfork playing out of position, Warren at nose and Kyle Love at end (or whatever combo, it's obvious wilfork was a man among boys) really Played like Sey, Wilfork and Ty Warren because your stat sheet says so?

Do you think the line, backers and secondary play separately in isolation chambers? It's quite obvious they had to adjust for the green linebackers and real lack at DL.

With a QB thst had hardly ever played, all the Packers had were journeyman RBs named Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn running straight up the middle like they were running through whipped cream.

It's a team game and Belichick makes the best adjustments. Sometimes that means overloading a point of weakness and risking another area.

Isolated statistics have very little significance in a game where responsibilities and emphasis can be shifted.

 

[Marqui]

With a prolific offense, the D doesn't have to be much better...but it sure will help in the games where the O seems to take the week off

"Prolific" offenses don't win championships alone. You need an impactful defense as well. So yes, the D does have to be much better.

 

[BlueThunder]

"Prolific" offenses don't win championships alone. You need an impactful defense as well. So yes, the D does have to be much better.

With the defense getting some defensive starters back healthy...as well as rookies having a year under their belt.....most people are optimistic about the D getting better......

Would a #1 Defense help...OF COURSE......but it doesn't have to be that much better....I believe someone stated the D was rated 11th overall in points allowed....yardage and getting off the field on 3rd down was the problem area....hopefully the team shows improvement in that area with Warren,Bodden and Wright back healthy....along with rookies and others having a year in the system...

Having a 14-2 record last season against a tough schedule with 10 rookies and a ton of inujuries makes me think that the Pats will do ok this season...( Injury card played)


IN BB WE TRUST

 

[supafly]

With the defense getting some defensive starters back healthy...as well as rookies having a year under their belt.....most people are optimistic about the D getting better......

Would a #1 Defense help...OF COURSE......but it doesn't have to be that much better....I believe someone stated the D was rated 11th overall in points allowed....yardage and getting off the field on 3rd down was the problem area....hopefully the team shows improvement in that area with Warren,Bodden and Wright back healthy....along with rookies and others having a year in the system...

Having a 14-2 record last season against a tough schedule with 10 rookies and a ton of inujuries makes me think that the Pats will do ok this season...( Injury card played)

IN BB WE TRUST

Actually, BT--they were 8th in points allowed, and only a handful of total pts behind the much talked about NYJ. Those are facts. There is also a rumor that they were the stingiest team in the entire NFL over the course of the last 6 weeks, but I don't know if that one is true or not, and competition also comes into play if it is. We all saw what GB did on the Monday night game, so take it with a grain of salt.

Now, what exactly happened to that defense come playoff time, I do not know, but the problems up the middle in the rushing defense hurt us once again, and that seemed to be a major problem in the losses, 2 of 3 which were to the Jets. With a middle run defense that is so solid and consists of Wilfork, Mayo, and Chung at all 3 levels, that seemed somewhat surprising to me.

Unpatriotic Defense

The Jets gained 66 yards on 17 rushes up the middle against New England. The Patriots have struggled all year to stuff the run up the middle in their losses.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots - Recap - January 16, 2011 - ESPN

I certainly agree that the weakness of getting off the field on 3rd down should be dramatically helped by the return of key players + the development of the youth.

 

[randomk1]

Actually, BT--they were 8th in points allowed, and only a handful of total pts behind the much talked about NYJ. Those are facts. There is also a rumor that they were the stingiest team in the entire NFL over the course of the last 6 weeks, but I don't know if that one is true or not, and competition also comes into play if it is. We all saw what GB did on the Monday night game, so take it with a grain of salt.

I honestly don't think that our defense was even close to the Jets D...even if they were 7th and we were 8th in points. Just for the simple reason of Tom Brady led NFL record offense vs Mark Sanchez led offense.

 

[Don Kipines]

The Patriots defense between 2009 and 2010 had to integrate six (and eventually eight) new starters, most of them players who were either rookies or had never played regular snaps in the NFL. In the secondary, Chung and McCourty were new, and Butler quickly gave way to Arrington, who wasn't a rookie but like Chung had barely played on defense before. Among the linebackers, Spikes, Cunningham, and Ninkovitch (who took TBC's job early on) were new players, and they were also totally inexperienced. And on the line, the only returning players were Wilfork and Wright, and Wright, like TBC, early on lost a lot of snaps to rookies and other players. They had Landon Cohen playing meaningful snaps late in the year. When you take all of that into consideration, they played extremely well last year, even if they had rough spots against Green Bay, Detroit, and the Jets.

Going forward into this year, they could easily return every single major defensive player, and in all probability not one defensive starter will be a rookie or an inexperienced free agent. And there's a lot of high-end talent on this defense, with Wilfork, Warren, Mayo, and McCourty all being Pro-Bowl-type players, and Chung, Bodden, and Meriweather being solidly above-average.

Is the talent really that much worse than the Jets? New York has Revis, and then after that your blue-chippers are David Harris (too bad he isn't leaving in free agency), Bart Scott, Bryan Thomas, and Calvin Pace. The remaining names are nothing special, guys like Mike Devito, Sione Pouha, Jim Leonhard and Brodney Pool. Would you trade Wilfork, Warren, Mayo and McCourty for Revis, Scott, Harris and Pace? It's not a no-brainer either way. The Pats collection of guys just needs more time together.

The personnel they had in 2008 and 2009 on D was old and slow with no upside. I was totally pessimistic about those teams. Now they have lots of speed and lots of size all over the place. Obviously an edge rusher or a Seymour type would help, but we've seen BB defenses play great with Anthony Pleasant and Bobby Hamilton up front. They have plenty of talent, they just need to tighten up and play better.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

Oh come on. Do you really think Wilfork playing out of position, Warren at nose and Kyle Love at end (or whatever combo, it's obvious wilfork was a man among boys) really Played like Sey, Wilfork and Ty Warren because your stat sheet says so?

Do you think the line, backers and secondary play separately in isolation chambers? It's quite obvious they had to adjust for the green linebackers and real lack at DL.

With a QB thst had hardly ever played, all the Packers had were journeyman RBs named Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn running straight up the middle like they were running through whipped cream.

It's a team game and Belichick makes the best adjustments. Sometimes that means overloading a point of weakness and risking another area.

Isolated statistics have very little significance in a game where responsibilities and emphasis can be shifted.

There are times where numbers lie, and there are times when they tell a very compelling story. Finishing 11 in the league in rush defense is a compelling story. Finishing 32 in the league in 3rd down defense in another compelling story. When a team finishes 11 over a 16 game schedule they did something consistently right and when they finish 32 in 3rd down defense they did somethings really wrong.

Wilfork being moved to end was due to injuries along the line, and the fact that the Pats couldn't generate a pass rush. It is also a testiment to Wilfork that he is a good enough player that he could play end at 350 pounds and be successful. The problem wasn't the play of the safety position, they did exactly what they are supposed to do. They hit recievers hard over the middle and didn't reallly allow recievers to get behind them in coverage. Sometimes I would like them to play a little closeer to the reciever, maybe break up that 15 yard out to the third reciever instead of knocking him out of bounds, but they played much better in 2010 than they did in 2009 or 2008. The DB's played pretty well, although the JAG who played across from McCourty could have played a little better at times. But that happens when you lose the teams #1 DB before the season ever starts. LB coverage wasn't really good, but once again, that is because we have TBC and Ninkovitch as our primary OLBs. Cunningham was a rookie and didn't play all that well until the last couple of games. Guyton is a talent without a set position. He is too small to play OLB in the Pats scheme and couldn't beat Spikes out for the ILB next to Mayo. He ended up playing on third down passing situations and didn't look horrible, but he did look like a LB trying to cover a reciever.

 

[ay-yo]

Now, what exactly happened to that defense come playoff time, I do not know, but the problems up the middle in the rushing defense hurt us once again, and that seemed to be a major problem in the losses, 2 of 3 which were to the Jets. With a middle run defense that is so solid and consists of Wilfork, Mayo, and Chung at all 3 levels, that seemed somewhat surprising to me.

Unpatriotic Defense

The Jets gained 66 yards on 17 rushes up the middle against New England. The Patriots have struggled all year to stuff the run up the middle in their losses.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots - Recap - January 16, 2011 - ESPN

I certainly agree that the weakness of getting off the field on 3rd down should be dramatically helped by the return of key players + the development of the youth.

While 66 yards on 17 rushes isn't good it's not exactly terrible either (only 3.88 average).

I'm sure you're aware but Spikes was suspended the previous 4 games before the playoff game. IMO Spike was making the more game to game progress than any other player on the roster. Missing those games certainly hurt him. His box score (1 solo tackle) reflects that he didn't have a good game. I realize a box score in football can be misleading but I'm not going to go back and watch the game. If somebody else has recently I'll defer to them.

Additionally up the middle runs involves the strong side DE as much as the NT or ILB. Again, I'm sure your aware of our DE situation at that point in the season. Hopefully with our DE's back healthy and Spikes playing a better game we can take that average run defense to a great run defense.

I still believe getting an early lead and making Sanchez air it out is the way to beat the Jets. A couple plays go our way early and that could be a completely different game.

 

[supafly]

While 66 yards on 17 rushes isn't good it's not exactly terrible either (only 3.88 average).

I agree, it's not what you'd consider 'horrible.' The link provided had a little bit better breakdown of the run defense as a whole, particularly in the losses.
I agree with you about the personnel, and the injury concerns, however the other 2 losses did not have that specific problem. I am not saying it's a major issue, although I do believe that our biggest weakness is pass defense...up the middle. However you look at it, the 'up the middle' problems need attention. Yes, hopefully another yr of Spikes will help that. Also the development of Chung too (IMO).

I still believe getting an early lead and making Sanchez air it out is the way to beat the Jets. A couple plays go our way early and that could be a completely different game.

I definitely agree. I believe the turning pt of the game was the fake punt situation, although the offense did come back to cut it to 14-11, and it seemed as though we would take control--yet the defense quickly allowed the killing play, which was the Cotchery pass up the middle. That was the nail in the coffin, IMO.

 

[cstjohn17]

Now, what exactly happened to that defense come playoff time, I do not know, but the problems up the middle in the rushing defense hurt us once again, and that seemed to be a major problem in the losses, 2 of 3 which were to the Jets. With a middle run defense that is so solid and consists of Wilfork, Mayo, and Chung at all 3 levels, that seemed somewhat surprising to me.

The Jets running game wasn't that impressive, what killed the Pats is the pass defense in critical situations.
- long pass to Edwards on a 3rd down spots that ball at the 8
- Edwards breaks about 10 tackles on a 3rd down and goes 15 yards for a score
- Cotchery is left uncovered across the middle and goes for 58 yards (that was a killer, it was a 3 point game that point)

NFL Game Center: New York Jets at New England Patriots - 2010 Divisional Playoffs

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I solved the problem. I had weird vibes like all thru that Jints SB so I shut off the TV after the punt debacle, turned on the DVR, went out for pizza and once the game was over, checked the score on the Internet and deleted the game. Saved $$$ on blood pressure meds.