Manxman's Live Mock.

[manxman2601]

I'd have been happy with Darby at 32. Or, seeing if Erving, Clemmings or Goldman are there too.

I'm quite happy ploughing a lonely furrow in my support for Byron Jones. And I don't need to be reminded of Clemmings. He's another I'd have happily traded up for. But CB is just too important and I think there's a significant drop off after Jones.

 

[manxman2601]

With the 28th pick, the Denver Broncos select TJ Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

Massive upside to a prospect they can play at RT or LG. Will be a boost to their run game.
Round One
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jameis Winston, QB, FSU
2. Tennessee Titans - Leonard Williams, DL, USC
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson
4. Oakland Raiders - Kevin White, WR, W. Virginia
5. Washington Redskins - Dante Fowler Jnr, EDGE, Florida
6. New York Jets - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7. Miami Dolphins (Fr. Chicago Bears) - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
8. Atlanta Falcons - Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska
9. New York Giants - Alvin 'Bud' Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky.
10. St Louis Rams - Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa
11. Minnesota Vikings - DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
12. Cleveland Browns - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13. New Orleans Saints - La'el Collins, OL, LSU
14. Chicago Bears (Fr. Miami Dolphins) - Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15. San Francisco 49ers - Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
16. Houston Texans - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
17. Cleveland Browns (Fr. San Diego) - Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
18. Kansas City Chiefs - Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
19. San Diego Chargers (Fr. Cleveland/Buffalo) - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
20. Philadelphia Eagles - Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23. Detroit Lions - Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
24. Arizona Cardinals - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
25. Carolina Panthers - DJ Humphries, OT, Florida
26. New England Patriots (Fr. Baltimore) - Byron Jones. CB, UConn
27. Dallas Cowboys - Shane Ray, EDGE, Missouri
28. Denver Broncos - TJ Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

 

[manxman2601]

With the 29th pick, the Indianapolis Colts select Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State

No position on the Colts O Line is all that safe so Erving's positional flexibility makes him an excellent choice for the Colts. Find Erving's best place on the OL and upgrade the whole line.

Round One
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jameis Winston, QB, FSU
2. Tennessee Titans - Leonard Williams, DL, USC
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson
4. Oakland Raiders - Kevin White, WR, W. Virginia
5. Washington Redskins - Dante Fowler Jnr, EDGE, Florida
6. New York Jets - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7. Miami Dolphins (Fr. Chicago Bears) - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
8. Atlanta Falcons - Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska
9. New York Giants - Alvin 'Bud' Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky.
10. St Louis Rams - Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa
11. Minnesota Vikings - DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
12. Cleveland Browns - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13. New Orleans Saints - La'el Collins, OL, LSU
14. Chicago Bears (Fr. Miami Dolphins) - Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15. San Francisco 49ers - Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
16. Houston Texans - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
17. Cleveland Browns (Fr. San Diego) - Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
18. Kansas City Chiefs - Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
19. San Diego Chargers (Fr. Cleveland/Buffalo) - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
20. Philadelphia Eagles - Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23. Detroit Lions - Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
24. Arizona Cardinals - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
25. Carolina Panthers - DJ Humphries, OT, Florida
26. New England Patriots (Fr. Baltimore) - Byron Jones. CB, UConn
27. Dallas Cowboys - Shane Ray, EDGE, Missouri
28. Denver Broncos - TJ Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
29. Indianapolis Colts - Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State

 

[luuked]

But CB is just too important and I think there's a significant drop off after Jones.

Given the loaded DL in our division I am not sure I agree, Manx. What all three teams now have in common is a DL that looks dominant on paper. Keeping Brady alive and thus the offense flowing looks to me at the very least equally important to address. TJ Clemmings looks awfully tempting.

That being said, given that Scar was down working out the Florida State prospects I would not be surprised if we plan to pickup something later.

 

[mayoclinic]

Given the loaded DL in our division I am not sure I agree, Manx. What all three teams now have in common is a DL that looks dominant on paper. Keeping Brady alive and thus the offense flowing looks to me at the very least equally important to address. TJ Clemmings looks awfully tempting.

I'm ok taking Byron Jones at 32. Trading away #96 in addition just seems like too high a price to pay. Obviously, it depends on BB's assessments. I think Clemmings is a slightly better pure prospect than Jones, irrespective of positional need.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

this is what makes this time of year, and this board so much fun. So many varying opinions on players, varying opinions on need, and varying ways to fill those holes.

Really enjoying this Manx.

 

[BobDigital]

As much as I say trade down and pick the best of the top 6-7 CBs left it is probably clear to people who have seen me mock and talk about prospects what I think of Byron Jones. Do I think this is the best value move we could have made? Nope.

Do I hate the move? Well... not really cause I really like the player. Just hope he lives up if we do it. A good to very good starting CB is easily worth this kind of move.

If he turns out to be that in retrospect this would be considered a steal.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm ok taking Byron Jones at 32. Trading away #96 in addition just seems like too high a price to pay. Obviously, it depends on BB's assessments. I think Clemmings is a slightly better pure prospect than Jones, irrespective of positional need.

When we're also picking at 97, I'm not sure why you are attributing so much value to 96. I believe there's a significant drop off from Jones to Darby and Williams, I also believe that we can get a Tre Jackson or Ali Marpet at 64 and a DL at 97 whether that be Hardison, Jarrett or an LT Walton type riser. The only reason I'd like to keep 96 would be to use it to move up with one of those other picks but Jones should the priority.

 

[everlong]

Great effort and well thought out. I haven't been able to put in the time I have with previous drafts so I've remained mostly quiet this year but I've enjoyed reading up on your analysis.

The one eye-raiser for me was Gurly to the Texans that high. Coming from the BB school of thought I don't know if BOB will want to spend that high of a pick on a "devalued" position especially with the injury history. The Texans minus a true franchise QB are obviously a different team that needs more of a go to back but that still just feels high.

I'm not saying I'm right it just got me wondering.

 

[mayoclinic]

When we're also picking at 97, I'm not sure why you are attributing so much value to 96. I believe there's a significant drop off from Jones to Darby and Williams, I also believe that we can get a Tre Jackson or Ali Marpet at 64 and a DL at 97 whether that be Hardison, Jarrett or an LT Walton type riser. The only reason I'd like to keep 96 would be to use it to move up with one of those other picks but Jones should the priority.

That's exactly why I don't want to give up 96.

I also think that this draft is about 4 rounds deep, and thin at the top. I'm ok trading up for a guy like Gurney or Peters who I consider a top 10 talent. But I don't believe in sacrificing depth to reach for a guy I don't have rated as highly, just to fill a position of need. I'm fundamentally opposed to that kind of approach.

 

[manxman2601]

That's exactly why I don't want to give up 96.

I also think that this draft is about 4 rounds deep, and thin at the top. I'm ok trading up for a guy like Gurney or Peters who I consider a top 10 talent. But I don't believe in sacrificing depth to reach for a guy I don't have rated as highly, just to fill a position of need. I'm fundamentally opposed to that kind of approach.

So you're opposed to trading up for someone for whom you have a first round grade but not opposed to trading up for someone on whom you don't have a first round grade. Sorry Mayo but that makes no sense.. If this is about Marpet and Hardison, then either you grade Jones above or below them. If above, then it makes more sense to trade up for Jones than it does Marpet or Hardison because that's your higher graded prospect. If you think Marpet or Hardison are the more valuable players, then why aren't you picking them in the first round instead of Jones?

 

[manxman2601]

this is what makes this time of year, and this board so much fun. So many varying opinions on players, varying opinions on need, and varying ways to fill those holes.

Really enjoying this Manx.

Thank you. I wasn't sure how many were following it.

Great effort and well thought out. I haven't been able to put in the time I have with previous drafts so I've remained mostly quiet this year but I've enjoyed reading up on your analysis.

The one eye-raiser for me was Gurly to the Texans that high. Coming from the BB school of thought I don't know if BOB will want to spend that high of a pick on a "devalued" position especially with the injury history. The Texans minus a true franchise QB are obviously a different team that needs more of a go to back but that still just feels high.

I'm not saying I'm right it just got me wondering.

Appreciate it. One thing I've realised is how far behind I am on other team needs and how uncomfortable I am with the current rankings as they stand. As far as Gurley to the Texans stands, I share the same reservations but I didn't see an obvious pick and went with BPA. The genuine first round talent runs out around the middle of the first round, so rather than reach to meet a need which I think I did with the pick before and after, I just went with a prospect that carries a first round grade.

It's interesting that as I research this mock by visiting other teams forums, Gurley is the one name that everyone is happy picking regardless of need. I think a lot of GMs will see him in the same way.

 

[everlong]

The genuine first round talent runs out around the middle of the first round, so rather than reach to meet a need which I think I did with the pick before and after, I just went with a prospect that carries a first round grade.

It's interesting that as I research this mock by visiting other teams forums, Gurley is the one name that everyone is happy picking regardless of need. I think a lot of GMs will see him in the same way.

I've done the once through on the top 100 or so picks which is so cursory to what I've done in the past but my initial reaction after getting through it was wow this draft class just isn't that good or deep. I can only picture the board exploding on draft night but I can really see us trading out of this draft with our first rounder. Again grain of salt as I haven't put the time in to make me confident in my assessments like I have been in the past but there hasn't been that Mayo, Collins, Gronk players that I really wanted them to draft. For that matter a Willis or Watt that I would love to have but they're way too far out of reach. Last year I had so many binkies.

 

[mayoclinic]

So you're opposed to trading up for someone for whom you have a first round grade but not opposed to trading up for someone on whom you don't have a first round grade. Sorry Mayo but that makes no sense.. If this is about Marpet and Hardison, then either you grade Jones above or below them. If above, then it makes more sense to trade up for Jones than it does Marpet or Hardison because that's your higher graded prospect. If you think Marpet or Hardison are the more valuable players, then why aren't you picking them in the first round instead of Jones?

Because I think they'll be available later on, and I'm trying to maximize value according to my board. And more fundamentally, because I don't have Jones graded highly enough to warrant using #96 to trade up.

Robert Kraft said after the 2013 draft that if the Pats had kept the 29 pick they probably wouldn't have done anything different, suggesting that Jamie Collins would have been the choice at 29. They choice to maximize value by trading back, risking losing out on Collins, who fortunately was still available at 52.

You and I have different assessments of Jones, so we have different optimizations. You think that he "should be the priority", so you trade up for him. I understand your move given your valuation, but I don't consider him worth trading up for. There are 3 CBs on the board at 26 who I have ranked closely (Jones, PJ Williams and Quentin Rollins), and I doubt all 3 will be gone by 32 - and if they are, it will mean someone like Clemmings, Erving or Goldman is available, all of whom I have graded higher aside from need. I don't have Jones ranked so clearly ahead of the others to warrant a trade up. Quite simply, I don't trade up for Jones because I don't think he's worth the trade up. That has nothing to do with Marpet and Hardison, and doesn't affect my willingness to trade up later on in the draft for them, or for other guys who I do think are worth the trade up; they are independent decisions. I'm sorry if that makes no sense to you.

 

[manxman2601]

With the 30th pick, the Green Bay Packers select Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA

Excellent prospect and certainly fills a need. They could have reached for one of the FSU CBs here or gone DT with Goldman or Phillips but the linebacker class is fairly top heavy and Kendricks is arguably the best of the bunch.

Round One
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jameis Winston, QB, FSU
2. Tennessee Titans - Leonard Williams, DL, USC
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson
4. Oakland Raiders - Kevin White, WR, W. Virginia
5. Washington Redskins - Dante Fowler Jnr, EDGE, Florida
6. New York Jets - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7. Miami Dolphins (Fr. Chicago Bears) - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
8. Atlanta Falcons - Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska
9. New York Giants - Alvin 'Bud' Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky.
10. St Louis Rams - Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa
11. Minnesota Vikings - DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
12. Cleveland Browns - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13. New Orleans Saints - La'el Collins, OL, LSU
14. Chicago Bears (Fr. Miami Dolphins) - Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15. San Francisco 49ers - Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
16. Houston Texans - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
17. Cleveland Browns (Fr. San Diego) - Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
18. Kansas City Chiefs - Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
19. San Diego Chargers (Fr. Cleveland/Buffalo) - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
20. Philadelphia Eagles - Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23. Detroit Lions - Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
24. Arizona Cardinals - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
25. Carolina Panthers - DJ Humphries, OT, Florida
26. New England Patriots (Fr. Baltimore) - Byron Jones. CB, UConn
27. Dallas Cowboys - Shane Ray, EDGE, Missouri
28. Denver Broncos - TJ Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
29. Indianapolis Colts - Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State
30. Green Bay Packers - Erick Kendricks, LB, UCLA

 

[manxman2601]

Because I think they'll be available later on, and I'm trying to maximize value. And more fundamentally, because I don't have Jones graded highly enough to warrant using #96 to trade up.

Robert Kraft said after the 2013 draft that if the Pats had kept the 29 pick they probably wouldn't have done anything different, suggesting that Jamie Collins would have been the choice at 29. They choice to maximize value by trading back, risking losing out on Collins, who fortunately was still available at 52.

You and I have different assessments of Jones, so we have different optimizations. You think that he "should be the priority", so you trade up for him. I understand your move given your valuation, but I don't consider him worth trading up for. There are 3 CBs on the board at 26 who I have ranked closely (Jones, PJ Williams and Quentin Rollins), and I doubt all 3 will be gone by 32 - and if they are, it will mean someone like Clemmings, Erving or Goldman is available, all of whom I have graded higher aside from need. I don't have Jones ranked so clearly ahead of the others to warrant a trade up. Quite simply, I don't trade up for Jones because I don't think he's worth the trade up. That has nothing to do with Marpet and Harison, and doesn't affect my willingness to trade up later on in the draft for other guys who I do think are worth the trade up; they are independent decisions. I'm sorry if that makes no sense to you.

If you are grading Jones and Rollins equally then we really are talking across each other.

 

[mayoclinic]

If you are grading Jones and Rollins equally then we really are talking across each other.

I have them graded closely enough that I don't consider it worth using #96 to trade up for Jones.

If you aren't willing to accept that other people may not have identical grades to you then this is a pointless exercise. Enjoy.

 

[manxman2601]

I've done the once through on the top 100 or so picks which is so cursory to what I've done in the past but my initial reaction after getting through it was wow this draft class just isn't that good or deep. I can only picture the board exploding on draft night but I can really see us trading out of this draft with our first rounder. Again grain of salt as I haven't put the time in to make me confident in my assessments like I have been in the past but there hasn't been that Mayo, Collins, Gronk players that I really wanted them to draft. For that matter a Willis or Watt that I would love to have but they're way too far out of reach. Last year I had so many binkies.

I actually do like the depth but I think you have to go looking for it. Give me a Clemmings or Jones in the first, a Jake Fisher, Abdullah or Hardison in the 2nd and some combination of Tre McBride, Grady Jarrett, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Ben Heeney later and I'm a very happy draftnik.

 

[manxman2601]

I have them graded closely enough that I don't consider it worth using #96 to trade up for Jones.

If you aren't willing to accept that other people may not have identical grades to you then this is a pointless exercise. Enjoy.

You can grade people how you like but I strongly disagree on Jones/Rollins which makes our discussion moot. We aren't going to see eye to eye. I wouldn't touch Rollins before the 3rd round. There are others who agree with you - Matt Miller doesn't have a first round grade on Jones for example. I'm not saying I'm right, I'm just giving my opinion.

 

[everlong]

I actually do like the depth but I think you have to go looking for it. Give me a Clemmings or Jones in the first, a Jake Fisher, Abdullah or Hardison in the 2nd and some combination of Tre McBride, Grady Jarrett, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Ben Heeney later and I'm a very happy draftnik.

Right I didn't mean devoid of talent. Just that there's nobody I'd trade a first and third to move up for and instead of having 5 or 6 players you're happy with falling to you it's only two. I think Clemmings is off the board at 32. He just has one of the highest floors which will make him super attractive and his ceiling is pretty good to boot.