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Make or break year for Chung?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Joey007, Jun 1, 2012.

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  1. Joey007

    Joey007 Rookie

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    Here's where I stand on Chung. Chung will be a free agent after the 2012 season. While he has played very well at points he's still yet to play all 16 games in one season. My concern is, if he gets hurt and misses several games again, is he worth being brought back?? I just think that if he wants a contract to stay with the Pats after this year, he's gotta perform well, and keep himself healthy especially since the Patriots will have Gronk/Hernandez's contract situations, and Welkers. It's not that I don't think he's a good player, because I think he is one, but I think it'd be too risky to give him good money if he's too much of a health risk. Thoughts??
  2. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    Chung is reported to be asking somewhere between 5-7 million in his next contract.

    At that money he is going to not only have to stay healthy for most of this upcoming season but he better show some pro bowl like performances to get that dough.

    I think its going to be a long hard decision on the Pats F.O. to re-sign him at that level of cash if Chung has nothing more than an average year.
  3. Joey007

    Joey007 Rookie

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    The good news for him is he's not in the Bob Sanders category... yet. I'll say this- IF he can stay healthy I think he is a pro bowler. Then again, with Polomalu and Reed still running around (for now, anyways) it's gonna be tough for him to make the pro bowl, so I'll take a pro bowl caliber season.
  4. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Do you have a source for that statement?

    FWIW, the franchise tag for safeties this year was $6.2M. Dashon Goldson is reportedly seeking something in the range of Eric Weddle's deal - 5 years, $40M with $19M guaranteed. I don't see Chung sniffing that kind of money. But Leigh Bodden money - 4 years @ $22M with $10M guaranteed - would be in the lower end of that ballpark and probably not unreasonable.

    Like all other contracts it will come down to the team's assessment of Chung's value and what he is seeking, and whether the two sides can find a middle ground. He's a valuable asset, even given his injury history. But it will eventually come down to a cost/value tradeoff like everything else.
  5. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    I read it somewhere...I believe it was Rotoworld or some other national website...but thats what I read.
  6. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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  7. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks for the link. There is a big difference in "could be worth" and "will be asking for", as previously posted.

    I hope that he has such a great year that he IS worth that.
  8. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    He may not have 'asked for that' and 'could be asking for that' but it will likely be somewhere in that neighborhood,I am sure.
  9. vuudu

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    Well he needs to start opening his eyes when the ball is in or near a receiver's hand. He likes to close his eyes and goes for the hit first.
  10. Ron Sellers

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    Is it really all that different for Chung than the vast majority of players going into the final year of their rookie contract? Couldn't you apply the 'make or break' term to almost every other player in that same situation? It seems to me that is the rule, not the exception.
  11. Guimond3434

    Guimond3434 Rookie

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    I agree. Very few safeties are worth that kind of dough. I think 5-7 Million for Chung is steep.

    The Patriots are in the drivers seat when it comes to negotiations with him though. He's been injured two straight years, and though solid when he's been in there, he's not played in the "Ed Reed" catagory. Signing him to a long term extension shouldnt be too difficult IMO.
  12. satz

    satz Rookie

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    Hate to say this , with the new cap number and 2014 cap floor coming into play . Do you think some team with alot of money will not pay?.

    satz
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2012
  13. blackglass3

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    I hope he does well, obviously. But he's been a disappointment...I thought he'd make a jump last year but I don't recall him being all that special when he did play. Did I miss something?

    That's what still chaps my ass about Meriweather. The guy would have flashes of brilliance but then regress, sometimes even during games. One half we'd get a focused missile and one half we'd get a bumbling nitwit. (and then it just all fell apart in his 4th year and he had no business wearing a Pats uniform)
  14. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    Does Independent Industry Source = Chung's agent? Because there is no way that he has performed thus far like a $5-7M/yr player in the games where he has actually played. His 4th qtr v. the NYG in Foxborough last year was particularly putrid.
    Just because Chung is the best Safety of a bad lot here doesn't mean that he should be paid as one of the best Safeties in the league. To me, it appears that he's become a 3rd Safety talent who can be used in passing situations w/ a superior FS, and in running situatios w/ a superior SS. Kinda like an upper-middle-class man's James Sanders. He therefore should be paid commensurate w/ that talent...unless, of course, he does have the breakout year for which we have been hoping .
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2012
  15. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I was always under the impression that Pat Chung was overrated by many on this board, but his return at the end of last yr did indeed spark a change in the defense much better than I had hoped.

    I still think he's overrated a bit, and that he lacks skill in pass coverage, but he is certainly decent in run support, shows quickness, and brings a spark to the defense.

    I certainly can understand why some think it's a make or break yr for him, and I agree myself.

    His contractual status will probably not be addressed until the late season or end of the year, and they certainly are not going to break the bank for him. He does need to prove his durability and step up his game this year, as he really has not lived up to the hype in my opinion.

    I'd like him to stay, but nothing more than about 5 million per.
  16. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't think Chung will ever play a full season in his career..if he doesn't have one this year...let him walk
  17. MrNathanDrake

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    If Meriweather can make the Pro Bowl in the AFC, so can Chung.
  18. mb6592

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    I know you got to be careful around here, less someone hammer you with a stat followed by an admonishment that vintage Reed and Chung, do indeed, live on the same planet. 5-7 million? Better never see this again:

    Ballard Catch - YouTube
  19. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    1. Obviously, this is a make or break year for Chung. He is in the last year of his contract and will be a UFA after the season. Chung's play this year will determine what teams will bid for his services after the 2012 season is complete.

    2. Chung has produced reasonably well for us.

    3. Chung has been injured a lot.

    4. There is no particular reason to believe that the patriots would outbid other teams for Chung, although we obviously need a safety. It is NOT a matter of the patriots to decide to keep him or let him go. It is for Chung to decide which offer to accept.
  20. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    When Matt Light was interviewed a few weeks ago and discussed the Pats' defense, he singled out Chung along with Mayo and Wilfork as being the "heart and soul of the defense":

    BostonHerald.com - Blogs: The Blitz» Blog Archive » Matt Light discusses how Patriots can improve on defense

    It's not clear whether that is just Light's personal view, or whether it is reflective of how the organization views Chung. But it does suggest that the Pats may have a different appreciation of what Chung brings than many of the people on this board - just as the organization clearly values Jerod Mayo to a greater extent than most fans. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but if the team shares Matt Light's view that Chung is part of the "heart and soul" of the defense then they may value him more highly than we necessarily would predict.

    I was a bit surprised when Devin McCourty was elected a team captain over Chung last year. In retrospect, it may have been too much responsibility too soon for McCourty. I'll be curious to see whether McCourty remains a team captain this year or whether Chung takes over that role. That could be an indicator of how the team views him going into his contract year.
  21. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Certainly good points. We've seen plenty of instances where the team has felt differently than many here, and this could possibly be one more example.

    Wilfork>Mayo>Chung = strength up the middle of the heart of the defense, but he certainly does need to take another step or two. The defense improved significantly and obviously that was a product of several different choices, but seeing Chung add so much at the end of the year suprised me in a pleasant way.

    If he can stay a bit healthier and improve on his pass defense, then he is certainly one of the promising young players on the team heading forward into the future. The problem is that he hasn't really done either one as of yet, at least not to enough of a level to warrant a decent kind of deal.

    I really would like to have him back, but he's one of those questionable kind of players that I have a hard time figuring out as far as potential compensation. Luckily, I don't have to make those kinds of decisions. Right now I wouldn't give him much more than 4-5 million per, but that could certainly change with a good 'prove it' contract year.
  22. mcsully

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    While Chung is a good player when healthy.. He's not worth that amt of money, not even close..
  23. randomk1

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    The D started playing alot better with Chung/Spikes in the lineup. I also don't see him asking for some sick amount of money.
  24. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't either, but if the quoted "5-7 million" is anywhere close then there could be potential problems that would allow him to walk in free agency.

    Another possibility is that he could have a much better year, durability or talent-wise, which would also cause his asking price to increase to a point that is out of the team's budget.

    I really hope that he stays and builds on what he has started here so far.

    Vollmer, Welker, and Chung will be 3 important names to watch over the course of the season and as we head into the FA period. Hopefully we can retain at least 2 of them.
  25. Triumph

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    Chung is not worth 5 - 7 million.

    He isnt a complete Safety and stinks in coverage.
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2012
  26. JackBauer

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    Coverage is certainly not Chung's forte, but it doesn't need to be as long as he's not playing next to James Ihedigbo.

    If he can show some semblance of durability this season, I think he's a definite priority given the dearth of competent safety play around the league.
  27. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    James Sanders was re-signed to a 3-year $9M deal in 2009. Steve Gregory was signed to a 3 year $7.05M deal this year. Chung will clearly end up with a higher deal than either. My guess is that BB views him as a "core" player on defense and the quarterback of the secondary. I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the range of what Leigh Bodden got in 2010 ($22M/4 years).
  28. Rob0729

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    First, Chung is far better in coverage than people give him credit for. He is no Ed Reed by any stretch of the imagination, but he is decent at it.

    Second, safeties salaries are going to skyrocket over the next few years. If you haven't noticed, there are very few good safeties in the league. Also, with the emergence of the TEs, safeties are more important to defenses than ever.

    Third, just because Chung is asking for something, it doesn't mean that the Pats or anyone else is going to pay it... Or that Chung even expects to get it. You ask for the world and settle for less.

    I hate to say it, but with so many safeties franchised this year looking for new deals, the top end money for safeties are going to rise exponentially either this year or free agency next year. It could be that $5-7 million is a reasonable price for a safety in the next year or two.
  29. Ron Sellers

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    The franchise tag is based on the five highest paid players at a position, and the value for a franchise tagged safety was $6.2 million in 2012. Patrick Chung is good enough to be a starting safety in the NFL, but he is not good enough to be considered one of the five best safeties in the league; therefore, the '$5 to $7 million' estimated value seems to be too high.

    Here are the recent contracts for veteran AFC safeties who start or get a large portion of snaps for their teams:


    • Eric Smith (contract signed in 2011): 3 years, $7.5m; $800k signing bonus; $700k, $3m, $3m base salaries; cap #s of $1.5, $3.85, $3.6
    • Jim Leonhard (2009): 3 yrs, $5.875; $1.0 sb; $1.2, $1.575, $2.075 base; $1.58, $1.96, 2.46 cap#
    • Yeremiah Bell (2009): 4 yrs, $20,0; $6.0 sb; $2.55, $1.85, $3.7, $4.3 base; $4.05, $3.35, $5.2, $5.8 cap#
    • Yeremiah Bell (2012): 1 yr, $1,400,000
    • George Wilson (2009): 1 yr, $1,010,000
    • George Wilson (2010): 1 yr, $1,759,000
    • George Wilson (2011): 3 yrs, $7.05; $2.0 sb; $1.03, $1.73, $2.0 base; $1.72, $2.67, 2.7 cap#
    • Bernard Pollard (2009): 1 yr, $535,000
    • Bernard Pollard (2010): 1 yr, $2,521,000
    • Bernard Pollard (2011): 2 yrs, $2.735; $800k bonuses; $985k, $1.25 base
    • Bernard Pollard (2012): 4 yrs, $12.3; $3.0 sb; $700k, $2.0, $2.8, $2.8 base; $1.95, $3.25, $3.55, $3.55 cap#
    • Ryan Clark (2010): 4 yrs, $17m; $4.5 sb; $2.25, $1.0, $3.0, $3.5 base; $3.0, $2.25, $4.25, $4.75 cap#
    • Jason Allen (2012): 2 yrs, $8,200,000
    • Danieal Manning (2011): 4 yrs, $20.0; $5.0 sb; $3.0, $3.5, $4.0, $4.5 base; $4.4, $4.9, $5.4, $5.9 cap#
    • Jordan Babineaux (2012): 2 yrs, $3.2; $400k sb; $1.2, $1.6 base
    • Dawan Landry (2012): 5 yrs, $27.5; $10.5 guaranteed; $1.85, $5.35, $5.35, $5.45 base
    • Antoine Bethea (2010): 4 yrs, $27.0; $18.0 guaranteed
    • Tom Zbikowski (2012): 3 yrs, $5.5; $1.0 sb; $0.7, $1.5, $2.025 base; $1.03, $1.83, $2.36 cap#
    • Eric Berry (2010): 5 yrs, $60m, $34m guaranteed; $3.3, $3.25, $4.84, $7.01, $8.42, $5.16 base
    • Eric Weddle (2011): 5 yrs, $40m, $19m guaranteed; $13m sb; $1.0, $5.0, $6.0, $7.5, $7.5 base; $3.6, $7.6, $8.6, $10.1, $10.1 cap#
    • Atari Bigby (2012): 1 year, $2,500,000
    • Bob Sanders (2011): 1 year, $2,000,000; $1m sb and $1m base
    • Michael Huff (2011): 4 yrs, $32m, $16m guaranteed; $7.3m sb; $685k, $700k, $4.0, $4.0 base; $2.51, $4.96, $8.26, $8.26 cap#
    • Steve Gregory (2012): 3 yrs, $8.5m, $3.35 guaranteed; $2.5 sb; $750k, $1.25, $2.25 base; $1.68, $2.18, $3.18 cap#



    So where does Chung fit in? Beneath players like Eric Berry and Dawan Landry, but above someone like Atari Bigby or George Wilson.

    Perhaps a contract like Bernard Pollard received would be a decent benchmark: four years for over $12 million, with a $3 million signing bonus and cap numbers in the $3+ million range after a cap-friendly first year.
  30. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Dawan Landry contract is a bit tricky, as I believe that Chung is a better player. I'm guessing something close to that may be likely. Tyvon Branch, Michael Griffin and Dashon Goldson all got the franchise tag in 2012. Their long term deals could set the market for safeties. PFT's Evan Silva reports that the 49ers are unlikely to meet Goldson's demands for money comparable to what Eric Weddle got ($40M/5 years):

    Niners unwilling to meet Goldson’s asking price | ProFootballTalk

    I don't think that Bernard Pollard money is going to do it for Chung, who is a much better player. But $25M/5 years with $10M guaranteed might be in the right range., depending on how this year goes.
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