Losing Vereen/Lewis is the biggest conern, not Edelman

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I love Edelman, but many are thinking the offense will suddenly become a juggernaut again when he returns. Amendola had 119 yards before leaving with his injury! I think that, even with some JAGs taking the #4 and #5 option, the Patriots will be able to get by okay. This isn't to say they won't improve when Edelman returns because they will; he is a great receiver and, in my opinion, the best in his prime slot receiver they have had.

The dropoff from Edelman to Amendola, however, doesn't force the Patriots to change their gameplan / distribution as much as Lewis to White. Amendola essentially becomes Edelman with less explosiveness and a weaker skill set, but he still gets a lot of targets and makes a lot of plays. In losing the production of Lewis, however, the Patriots go from a team that is going to beat you mostly on dumpoffs and medium passes to a team that is going to throw almost all medium passes. It's a lot easier to defend.

Thus, in my opinion, the much bigger offensive concern is the position previously occupied by Faulk/ Woodhead/ Vereen/ Lewis. Having that back who can catch passes and lineup at WR makes the offense incredibly dynamic and softens the poor play of the offensive line. In addition, double/triple teaming Gronk becomes a losing proposition since he can just keep running seem routes to draw bodies downfield.

Does anyone remember the insane "With Vereen / Without Vereen" splits from the last few years?

I am not sure how or if the Patriots will be able to solve this problem, as it's going to take some creativity or may require White or Bolden to step up. Unfortunately, I don't know if either has the necessary skills to make defenses pay for being aggressive and attempting to dictate the gameplan. It is a tiny sample size, but the Patriots moved the ball well against the Jets with White filling in for Lewis, and White had 5 targets in that game. White and Bolden were targeted a combined 4 times against Buffalo and 2 times against NYG. That's an average of just 3 targets per game, and in both games the offense seemed average. In comparison, Lewis averaged just over 7 targets per game, and Vereen averaged roughly 6 targets per game from 2013-14.

I hope the Patriots will at least try to get White/Bolden involved more, even if it will be often be a 6 yard gain instead of a 12 yard gain. Clearly I am not in the same universe as the coaching staff and Brady when it comes to these gameplans, but it seems like they may have some problems moving the ball if teams continue to show little respect for out running backs coming out of the backfield.

 

[Ring 6]

I love Edelman, but many are thinking the offense will suddenly become a juggernaut again when he returns. Amendola had 119 yards before leaving with his injury! I think that, even with some JAGs taking the #4 and #5 option, the Patriots will be able to get by okay. This isn't to say they won't improve when Edelman returns because they will; he is a great receiver and, in my opinion, the best in his prime slot receiver they have had.

The dropoff from Edelman to Amendola, however, doesn't force the Patriots to change their gameplan / distribution as much as Lewis to White. Amendola essentially becomes Edelman with less explosiveness and a weaker skill set, but he still gets a lot of targets and makes a lot of plays. In losing the production of Lewis, however, the Patriots go from a team that is going to beat you mostly on dumpoffs and medium passes to a team that is going to throw almost all medium passes. It's a lot easier to defend.

Thus, in my opinion, the much bigger offensive concern is the position previously occupied by Faulk/ Woodhead/ Vereen/ Lewis. Having that back who can catch passes and lineup at WR makes the offense incredibly dynamic and softens the poor play of the offensive line. In addition, double/triple teaming Gronk becomes a losing proposition since he can just keep running seem routes to draw bodies downfield.

I am not sure how or if the Patriots will be able to solve this problem, as it's going to take some creativity or may require White or Bolden to step up. Unfortunately, I don't know if either has the necessary skills to make defenses pay for being aggressive and attempting to dictate the gameplan. It is a tiny sample size, but the Patriots moved the ball well against the Jets with White filling in for Lewis, and White had 5 targets in that game. White and Bolden were targeted a combined 4 times against Buffalo and 2 times against NYG. That's an average of just 3 targets per game, and in both games the offense seemed average. In comparison, Lewis averaged just over 7 targets per game, and Vereen averaged roughly 6 targets per game from 2013-14.

I hope the Patriots will at least try to get White/Bolden involved more, even if it will be often be a 6 yard gain instead of a 12 yard gain. Clearly I am not in the same universe as the coaching staff and Brady when it comes to these gameplans, but it seems like they may have some problems moving the ball if teams continue to show little respect for out running backs coming out of the backfield.

Lots to discuss here.
First, the RB position in our passing game is a wildcard. We can use them heavily if we have them, and don't really need them if not. We have had years where that spot catches 30 passes or less, and years where is catches 60.
If Amendola 'replaces Edelman' who replaces Amendola? Both have played together a lot this year, and having both on the field tends to complement each other. Until I see us completing every 3rd down pass to one guy, I will believe that all 5 in the routes matter. The fact that Amendola is getting more passes thrown his way with Edelman out is proof that him being on the field with Edelman makes us a better team.
Finally, you seem to imply that Monday Nights offense being only pretty good was about the WR position. It was about the OL. If the OL is fixed and Brady has time, we will win with whoever is at the WR position.

 

[50-yard-line]

It's not the drop-off from Edelman to Amendola, though, since both were on the field together...a lot.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I wanna see what keshawn martin can bring to the table. I am still waiting for lafell to be a bigger factor. Have more targets.

 

[Galeb]

The number of targets who can frequently get open against tough, underneath coverage got smaller when each was injured. As that number has grown smaller, the average time Brady has held onto the ball has grown. IMO, the declining number of targets who can frequently get open is more of a factor than the specific individuals that were injured.

 

[RayClay]

White had a fine game. Edelman is more important.

 

[RIpats88]

White looked fine catching the ball out of the backfield and running it. I think he can approximate what vereen brough. problem is he had to stay in alot to block.

edelman is more important. But hopefully Keshawn martin can play this week because he can play the inside/outside game like edelman does and can ease some of that loss

 

[oldrover]

In losing the production of Lewis, however, the Patriots go from a team that is going to beat you mostly on dumpoffs and medium passes to a team that is going to throw almost all medium passes. It's a lot easier to defend.

That may be true... but...

https://imgflip.com/memegenerator

 

[Ring 6]

The number of targets who can frequently get open against tough, underneath coverage got smaller when each was injured. As that number has grown smaller, the average time Brady has held onto the ball has grown. IMO, the declining number of targets who can frequently get open is more of a factor than the specific individuals that were injured.

A lot depends upon the opponent. Our scheme gets players open. But the scheme the defense runs tell you which players get open.
Rex Ryan has consistently lost to the Patriots. He has consistently done it by trying to defend them differently that other teams. The result is that he tries to take away the bread and butter quick passing game, but does so by exposing his defense to big plays. This means in some games we put up a ton of points and some we struggle (ie 3 40+ and 3 under 20). Most of the struggles have been weather or injury related that kept down the big plays. Monday night we left a couple of plays on the field (or in the whistle) that would have made it a blowout.
Others will try to take away the big play and we slice and dice them. Others will just do what they do and hope for the best.
If we are playing the style that has the ball coming out quickly, frankly anyone we put on the field is going to get open, because the scheme gets them open. The real personell factors are the OL, and on 3rd down.

 

[aluminum seats]

If Amendola 'replaces Edelman' who replaces Amendola? Both have played together a lot this year

Exactly. It's the cumulative effect that's a concern.

I wanna see what keshawn martin can bring to the table. I am still waiting for lafell to be a bigger factor. Have more targets.

Brady seems to like Martin, so fingers crossed. Agreed on Lafell...seems Dobson was playing over him, which would be odd.

 

[JMC00]

Pretty sure the guy that is replacing them scored the Pats only 2 TD in the game.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

White had a fine game. Edelman is more important.

This.
If White can play just satisfactory at the third down back position, the issue will be significantly diminished. We don't need him to be Lewis -- fyi Vereen wasn't Lewis either -- we just need some moderate production out of that spot.

This is White's time to shine, this is golden opportunity. With Gronk and Jules and DA and Lafell on the field, that's a lot for a D to pay attention to. White is definitely going to get his chances against LB's/optimal matchups. Let's see what the guy can do....

 

[Galeb]

, frankly anyone we put on the field is going to get open, because the scheme gets them open.

The scheme is obviously designed to get players open quickly, but if anyone could do it, the Pats would be stocked with all vet minimum guys in the skill positions. It's hard to get open quickly when there's 7 or 8 cover guys dropping into close coverage and executing well underneath. Sure, Brady tries to throw to guy who the coverage at snap dictates, but sometimes that guy is covered. If the 2nd and 3rd guy are covered, the QB has to hold onto the ball.

The Pats current scheme relies on multiple players able to get open quickly. As that number decreases, Brady has to hold onto the ball longer. Nothing in your argument refutes this.

 

[Mack Herron]

White has 10 rushes for 34 yards (6 more than TB12) and 10 receptions for 90 yards (5 fewer than K. Martin) on the season. Expecting White to offer any substantial production requires a leap of faith at this point.

 

[Froob]

People are still calling Edelman a slot reciever?

 

[Froob]

White has 10 rushes for 34 yards (6 more than TB12) and 10 receptions for 90 yards (5 fewer than K. Martin) on the season. Expecting White to offer any substantial production requires a leap of faith at this point.

That's highly misleading considering he just started taking over Lewis' spot. That's like complaining Osweiler has only 250 yds passing on the season.

 

[Galeb]

People are still calling Edelman a slot reciever?

He's sorta a slot receiver.

 

[VectorPrime]

Lewis was a legit threat to run the ball on 1st and 2nd downs too. Don't forget that. He wasn't merely a 3rd down back.

Face it, blount cant create rushing plays until the 4th quarter, either the hole is there or its not. Lewis could create plays. Our rushing game is anemic without him.

 

[Ring 6]

The scheme is obviously designed to get players open quickly, but if anyone could do it, the Pats would be stocked with all vet minimum guys in the skill positions.

They kind of have done that at WR.

It's hard to get open quickly when there's 7 or 8 cover guys dropping into close coverage and executing well underneath. Sure, Brady tries to throw to guy who the coverage at snap dictates, but sometimes that guy is covered. If the 2nd and 3rd guy are covered, the QB has to hold onto the ball.

Which is why I said the OL must protect. If they do, Brady will shred anyone.
Throwing quick routes is a function of what the defense does. If they drop 8, then the routes will take longer, but as long as the OL doesn't suck, we will be shredding them further downfield.

The Pats current scheme relies on multiple players able to get open quickly. As that number decreases, Brady has to hold onto the ball longer. Nothing in your argument refutes this.

No it doesn't. A PIECE of their scheme says that against certain coverages they will stress the quick throw, against others they will not.
Look at the WR screen play. Some weeks you think they are going to run it 20 times, others, like this week its non-existent (one late one to Lafell). That's because, like everything else, it is a big part of their scheme AGAINST a certain type of coverage.
If the OL played well, Monday would have looked just like week 2. Ryan did nothing different. The OL just didn't block as well.

 

[Mack Herron]

That's highly misleading considering he just started taking over Lewis' spot. That's like complaining Osweiler has only 250 yds passing on the season.

With Lewis at home watching from his living room Sunday against the Bills White had 2 carries and 2 receptions. The previous week against the Giants he had 1 carry and 1 reception. If my math is right, that's 3 carries and 3 receptions in two games without Lewis. It is simply a fact that the coaches have seen better options than White even when Lewis is not around.