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Looks like the WSJ might believe we are in a recession..

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by DarrylS, Mar 15, 2008.

  1. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Sep 13, 2004
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    Looks like a recession is here according to two articles that are based on WSJ stuff, the first being a survey reported by UPI and the second an article by an economist.. sure we will all get caught up in partisan politics and semantical rhetoric.. but it is what it is.


    NEW YORK, March 14 (UPI) -- A majority of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal declared that the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession.

    More than 70 percent of the 51 respondents of the March 7-11 survey said the economic indicators point to a recession, the Journal reported Friday.

    Economists pointed to the loss of 63,000 jobs in February -- a total of 101,000 private sector jobs lost offset by 38,000 government jobs added -- and February's retail sales that showed a 0.6 percent decline.

    Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the country's economic activity.

    Compared with a previous survey, the economists revised job growth expectations for the year from 48,000 jobs per month added to 9,000 a month. Twenty of the 51 said they expected payrolls to shrink in the coming months and unemployment to rise to 5.5 percent from a current 4.8 percent.

    "The evidence (of a recession) is now beyond a reasonable doubt," Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co., told the Journal

    Technically, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters with a drop in the gross domestic product. But, analysts said those conditions were arbitrary. "There might not be even one negative quarter in this recession," Steven Stanley of RBS Greenwich Capital said.


    Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg, one of the most bearish Wall Street economists, says to look past the 1990-91 recession as a guide to the current downturn. The key difference: the depth of home-price declines.

    Mr. Rosenberg says in a note to clients that the current downturn is hitting more broadly than the credit crunch and real estate meltdown in the 1990-91 recession, which lasted eight months (as did the mild 2001 contraction). Home prices today are falling in 85% of the country vs. 40% during that period, he notes. When prices hit bottom in 1992, the inventory of new and existing homes for sale was at 7 months of supply. Now it’s at 10 months’ supply “with no improvement in sight,” says Mr. Rosenberg, who was among the first economists to forecast a 2008 recession. He sees average prices nationwide dropping 20% to 30% more, on top of the 11% decline since the 2006 peak.

    The mid-1970s recession “not only saw a sharp and sustained rise in food and energy prices, as is the case today, but also saw a very similar consumer balance sheet squeeze from a simultaneous deflation in residential real estate and equity assets, which never happened in the 2001 recession, the 1990-91 recession or the recessions of the early 1980s for that matter,” he writes. “The last time we had more than one quarter of outright contraction in the value of both asset classes on the household balance sheet was in the 1973-75 recession.” –Sudeep Reddy
  2. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Aug 11, 2006
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    +768 / 13 / -7

    #91 Jersey

    Funny non-partisan thing. Because of lag times( usually 6 months) in knowing that you're in a recession you're already in it,and because of lag time you're out of one before yor know it for sure. But from what I see were in one,but I was more sure in '91 trying to sell my house and not a single person coming to look. And both my then wife and I being lad-off or haveing to relocate.

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