we can draft a player with the Raiders pick.
Then we trade for a 2011 2nd and a 2012 1st with each of those ...
3 first rounders in 2012 .... could be an easy guess perhaps?
This is exactly the type of thinking that got us in the catbird's seat, and I see no reason to abandon it now, provided it continues to yield high rewards.
Take Carolina to see how they've done the opposite, and the consequences. In 2008, they went deep into the playoffs and thought they were just a few pieces from a championship. They had no first rounder in 2009 (due to a trade the year before), so they traded their 2010 first round pick for a 2009 second rounder and selected Everett Brown. They convinced themselves that he was first round talent and they'd have a low first round pick the next year. Well, the next year, they ended up giving away a mid-first round pick instead. So they went from 14th to the 43rd overall pick with no compensation.
Last year, same thing with the Pats. They convinced themselves that their third round pick was actually a second rounder and desperately made a dumb decision again. They are going from the 33rd pick to the 89th pick this time.
To recap, Carolina's draft strategy and why you should not be tempted to sacrifice future draft for this years "steals":
Carolina's Actual Draft Picks in 2009 (first round)-2010 (second round)
14th and 33rd
Carolina's Exchanged Draft picks- where they actually picked after trades
43rd (Everett Brown) and 89th (Armanti Edwards)
It's not hard to see why some teams are not very successful.
It's basic math. If you can see further than the present "pressing needs" and look at the value, this isn't that difficult. Obviously, if someone were to offer you the 14th and 33rd picks for the 43rd and 89th, you'd be nuts not to take it. Belichick understands that value is value, regardless of which year it takes place.