Lombardi's Diner Morning News: AFC East

[BPF]

Pretty good piece on AFC East team questions that still need answers.

The National Football Post | Diner Morning News: AFC East

FROM MICHAEL LOMBARDI:

12 March 2009

QUOTE: “The real test of character is how you treat someone who has no possibility of doing you any good.” ~ George Orwell

FROM HARVEY FIALKOV OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA SUN-SENTINEL… While the Dolphins have barely dipped a toe into the free-agent pool, the rest of the AFC East dove in headfirst. Sure, the Dolphins didn’t make a huge splash like the Bills did last week with the signing of diva receiver Terrell Owens, but they did secure the future of five solid starters, including three of their own, without breaking the bank.

With free agency coming to sudden stop, there will be many columns like this one by Harvey Fialkov grading the offseason. It makes for great conversation, but I find it difficult to place a grade on teams until after the draft, when I can look at their moves in total. Each team’s movement in free agency answers some questions about which direction they’re heading, but it also opens others before the draft. I tend to focus on what’s next rather than looking back and grading just one part of the offseason. Here are five questions each AFC East team must answer…

....

NEW ENGLAND

1. Where’s the pass rush going to come from? The Pats need an outside linebacker who can rush. They lack the ability to make plays on third down and were last in the league in allowing third-down conversions on third-and-10 or more. A rusher would help.



2. Can Tedy Bruschi play another year? The Patriots need to add speed to their front seven, and this might keep Tedy off the field. They need to find a big, tough inside linebacker.



3. Do they have enough depth in the offensive line? The Patriots do a great job moving all the pieces around, but they need to find some young linemen they can develop for the future. They ranked 26th in sacks allowed last year.



4. Can they find some help in the punting game? They were 31st in the NFL in yards allowed on punt returns. This was due, in part, to their punter and their lack of speed on the field.



5. Who is the next Matt Cassel? The Patriots need to make sure they have another young player ready to go. Is it Kevin O’Connell?

....

 

[JSn]

Fair question on Bru, but the leadership needs to remain. If he's healthy, I think he plays, but he shouldn't be a starter.

 

[BelichickFan]

No doubt the ILB spot next to Mayo is an issue unless Guyton comes on. Regarding the pass rush, I really hope Crable can help that at least on passing downs. I definitely am not suggesting he would be the starter to replace Vrable but on 3rd and 8 I'd like to think he can be a factor - of course, our secondary looks to be much improved which will help too.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

I think a healthy AD will seriously boost the pass rush. I also that that Mayo, who's focus was really on learning the system last year, will become a reasonably decent asset to the pass rush. Although he didn't get any sacks last year, in the last couple of games he started to generate some pressure. With a full year under his belt, plus another offseason of study, I think BB will start to loosen the reins a bit and expand Mayo's role. An improved secondary should also help with the pass rush.

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm also hoping that having a competent secondary will let Pees be more aggressive with the pass rush. It must be tough to send extra guys at the QB when your secondary can't cover sh!t.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

I think a healthy AD will seriously boost the pass rush. I also that that Mayo, who's focus was really on learning the system last year, will become a reasonably decent asset to the pass rush. Although he didn't get any sacks last year, in the last couple of games he started to generate some pressure. With a full year under his belt, plus another offseason of study, I think BB will start to loosen the reins a bit and expand Mayo's role. An improved secondary should also help with the pass rush.

I'm also hoping that having a competent secondary will let Pees be more aggressive with the pass rush. It must be tough to send extra guys at the QB when your secondary can't cover sh!t.

:agree: I agree with Lombardi on the OL tho; I wouldn't mind seeing some extra hulks with brains waiting in the wings. TFB's going to have a target on his back (knee) OL=fortress imho

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Pretty good piece on AFC East team questions that still need answers.

The National Football Post | Diner Morning News: AFC East

>>>>4. Can they find some help in the punting game? They were 31st in the NFL in yards allowed on punt returns. This was due, in part, to their punter and their lack of speed on the field. <<<<

Huh??? According to the NFL stats (link below), the Pats allowed 158 yds (4th least in the entire league) on 50 punts or 3.1 ypp...............Granted only a few were returned but let's look at the whole picture in terms on FC and out of bounds punts, not selected stats.
Can somebody explain this one to me.....???


NFL Stats: by Team Category

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Drugs?

 

[willdeespats]

In the remarks section to this article, Bones speculates that Teddy has/is/will be taking over Izzo's special teams captaincy, leadership and job and that Guyton will be starting at ILB. Sounds to me like a pretty good position for Teddy. What does anyone else think?

Will D

 

[Leave No Doubt]

In the remarks section to this article, Bones speculates that Teddy has/is/will be taking over Izzo's special teams captaincy, leadership and job and that Guyton will be starting at ILB. Sounds to me like a pretty good position for Teddy. What does anyone else think?

Will D

Nice catch:rocker: and an interesting proposition too.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

>>>>4. Can they find some help in the punting game? They were 31st in the NFL in yards allowed on punt returns. This was due, in part, to their punter and their lack of speed on the field. <<<<

Huh??? According to the NFL stats (link below), the Pats allowed 158 yds (4th least in the entire league) on 50 punts or 3.1 ypp...............Granted only a few were returned but let's look at the whole picture in terms on FC and out of bounds punts, not selected stats.
Can somebody explain this one to me.....???


NFL Stats: by Team Category

He is saying that on 11 actual returned punts, the opposition returned for a total of 158 yards, or 14+ ypp. Not sure where that ranks league wide, but 31st (as the article states) is probably accurate.

I am leaning towards supporting Hanson. I thought he played decent and seemed to get better as the season progressed.


Here is some more NE punting info:

Facts:

50 punts: 9 OutBnds, 7 Dwnd, 10 TchBcks, 13 FairCtch, 11 Rtrnd
Longest punt: 70 yds
Average punt: 44 yds
Net Average: 36.8 yds
20 punts resulted in oppenent inside their 20 yd line
0 TDs
0 Blocked punts

Positives:

40% of all punts were a FC or Dwnd and an additional 10% (9 punts out of bounds) were probably coffin kicks.

40% of punts left the opponent inside their own 20 yd line.

No punts were blocked or returned for TDs.


Negatives:

20% of Hanson's punts were TBs (10 TBs on 50 punts). Unacceptable!

33.3% of his punts that were targeted for inside the 20 yd line resulted in TBs (10 out of 30).
-- That ranks 27th in the league. Only 4 teams had a worse %. Sea was tied with us.
-- The best: Colts 8.7%, Bengels: 10.7%, and Bears: 12.5%

14+ yds/punt average return is bad.

Net average punt of 36.8 yds ranks 20th in the league.
-- Note: 60% of Hanson's punts were targeted for inside the 20 yd line which will skew towards shorter punts.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

He is saying that on 11 actual returned punts, the opposition returned for a total of 158 yards, or 14+ ypp. Not sure where that ranks league wide, but 31st (as the article states) is probably accurate.

I am leaning towards supporting Hanson. I thought he played decent and seemed to get better as the season progressed.


Here is some more NE punting info:

Facts:

50 punts: 9 OutBnds, 7 Dwnd, 10 TchBcks, 13 FairCtch, 11 Rtrnd
Longest punt: 70 yds
Average punt: 44 yds
Net Average: 36.8 yds
20 punts resulted in oppenent inside their 20 yd line
0 TDs
0 Blocked punts

Positives:

40% of all punts were a FC or Dwnd and many of those 9 OB's were probably coffin kicks.

40% of punts left the opponent inside their own 20 yd line.

No punts were blocked or returned for TDs.


Negatives:

10 TBs is unnacceptable on only 50 punts (20%).

14+ yds/punt average return is bad.

Net average punt of 36.8 yds ranks 20th in the league (although 60% of Hanson's punts were targeted for inside the 20 yd line which will skew towards shorter punts).

Good analysis. Thanks for the effort!

 

[DW Toys]

I think a healthy AD will seriously boost the pass rush. I also that that Mayo, who's focus was really on learning the system last year, will become a reasonably decent asset to the pass rush. Although he didn't get any sacks last year, in the last couple of games he started to generate some pressure. With a full year under his belt, plus another offseason of study, I think BB will start to loosen the reins a bit and expand Mayo's role. An improved secondary should also help with the pass rush.

Good post, but I have a theory about why Vrable, our top pass rushing defender was allowed to leave. I am in no way a great TBC fan, but in his last year here he had 4 and1/2 sacks. Is it possible with Vrabels last year of about the same sacks, that BB thought he was going to get the same production from a much cheaper and younger TBC? I think sacks are great but I understand that BB feels QB pressures is as important as sacks. I know they have stats on pressure. It would be great to see where each team ranked on QB pressures. I still think a Jason Taylor could help for a few years and perhaps between he and Thomas, teach Crable some tricks in the NFL. His Michigan QB sacks were fine.
I think Jason Taylor can win one or two games for us in 2009. No way we can afford Peppers.
DW Toys

 

[N.Eman]

I'm also hoping that having a competent secondary will let Pees be more aggressive with the pass rush. It must be tough to send extra guys at the QB when your secondary can't cover sh!t.

Well said. I just wish we had Big Sey play his ownself again, get some good young talent at OLB and let Pees work this magic

 

[supafly]

Well said. I just wish we had Big Sey play his ownself again, get some good young talent at OLB and let Pees work this magic

Could be respectively argued that Big Sey was certainly himself last yr--as the stats point that our strengths on D are on his side of the field. His ability to take on two blockers allows others to step in and make more plays. Therefore, his role is underrated. He also tied his career high in sacks last yr, on a team with a patchwork defense--and a horrible secondary. I believe Big Sey is back

 

[patchick]

20% of Hanson's punts were TBs (10 TBs on 50 punts). Unacceptable!

33.3% of his punts that were targeted for inside the 20 yd line resulted in TBs (10 out of 30).
-- That ranks 27th in the league. Only 4 teams had a worse %. Sea was tied with us.

This was very striking watching the games. But what struck me most was that a lot of those punts looked like they weren't "targeted for inside the 20 yd line" at all -- they went sailing toward the end zone.

Is it remotely possible this was an intentional strategy shift? I wouldn't put it past Ernie & BB to have crunched a bunch of numbers and determined that on balance, a TB gives you a better result on the ensuing possession than putting the punt into play.

 

[Sicilian]

In the remarks section to this article, Bones speculates that Teddy has/is/will be taking over Izzo's special teams captaincy, leadership and job and that Guyton will be starting at ILB. Sounds to me like a pretty good position for Teddy. What does anyone else think?

Will D

It would be fitting in a way, given that before Bruschi was Bruschi, he was a no name special teamer. Come into the league a ST standout, and maybe leave as one too

 

[patfanken]

Pretty good piece on AFC East team questions that still need answers.

The National Football Post | Diner Morning News: AFC East

Here would my my answers to Mike Questions.

1. Pass Rush - I think the Pats will be much improved in their pass rush. First of all they lost their BEST pass rusher for most of last season (AThomas). He will be back. Secondly they will have a better stronger secondary which will give the Pats another second to rush.
Third, when they add Jason Taylor to the mix, the Pats will back among the top 5 in sacks again.

2. They have been saying the same thing for the last 4 years. He completely ignores the fact that the Pats have an improved DRY coming back, and the fact that TBrushci's position will see less and less play in the Pass happy NFL. In most cases he will be the first LB to see the bench in passing situation (which these days is most every down). BTW- someone should tell Mike that the Pats have already gotten faster at LB.

3. Its a fair question but shows how Mike is stretching to find questions about the Pats. Yes the Pats will have to seriously look forward to the FUTURE of the OL AFTER this season, but this season they have 5 experienced proven quality starters and 2 back ups with extensive starting experience. Yes the Pats will have to start thinking about replacing guys as they start to reach their early 30's.... But seriously Mike, its not likely to make a difference THIS year.

And as for the sacks will all know that the majority of the Sacks the OL gave up last season was due to Matt Cassel's inexperience. I would like to see how the Pats ranked in pass protection over the last 8 games compared to the rest of the league.

4. I thought Hanson had a decent year, however he's right about the coverage. That could have been caused by the massive injuries to the secondary and OLB corps and why we've brought back TBC. Guys like Woods, Wilhite and Weatley SHOULD improve the punt coverage. Again another example of him trying to find questions to ask about the Pats. With other teams its their QB or DL with the Pats its their Punting or what their OL will look like in 2012.

5. He already knows who the next Matt Cassel is. O'Connor is Matt Cassel only with a stronger arm, better feet, and a lot more game experience in college. Only time will tell if he learns the system and can learn to make good decisions consistently. But the Bottom Line is that as far as the raw materiel goes...the next Matt Cassel is already on board. More Stretching by Mike

5.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

This was very striking watching the games. But what struck me most was that a lot of those punts looked like they weren't "targeted for inside the 20 yd line" at all -- they went sailing toward the end zone.

Is it remotely possible this was an intentional strategy shift? I wouldn't put it past Ernie & BB to have crunched a bunch of numbers and determined that on balance, a TB gives you a better result on the ensuing possession than putting the punt into play.

It's possible, but I would think that kicking a very high and short punt inside the 20 would result in a fair catch, a downed punt, or a return for little or no gain almost 100% of the time. A coffin kick should result in a punt going out of bounds inside the 20. It's hard to imagine that booming it through the back of the end zone causes a better result than either of those strategies.

However, it does let you forget about trying to be precise about wear it is going to come down... so it might reduce the odds of a blocked punt (punt goes off faster) or a shanked punt which goes out of bounds outside the 20 yd line (due to a mistake in trying to coffin kick it).

 

[JSn]

This was very striking watching the games. But what struck me most was that a lot of those punts looked like they weren't "targeted for inside the 20 yd line" at all -- they went sailing toward the end zone.

Is it remotely possible this was an intentional strategy shift? I wouldn't put it past Ernie & BB to have crunched a bunch of numbers and determined that on balance, a TB gives you a better result on the ensuing possession than putting the punt into play.

Absolutely. BB was asked about those punts in a PC and he said this: "I've never seen a touchback returned for a touchdown." and grinned.

No way at least a few of those weren't what Doctor B ordered.