My 10 points favoring the Patriots that I have gathered from various places.
1) 15-3 vs. 12-7 team records
2) The Patriots offense scored more points per game for the season
3) The Patriots defense allowed fewer points per game for the season
Both of these (2,3) contributed to a huge edge in point differential, the Patriots were if I recall correctly +190, the Giants -6.
4) Even for the last 5 games, when the Giants "found themselves" the Patriots have the edge in point differential
5) Brady for his career in domed stadiums sees about a 10 point rise in passer rating over his career average, even though they are all road games or neutral site games
6) The Patriots force more turnovers and commit fewer turnovers than the Giants. The Patriots record under Belichick when they win the turnover battle is from memory something like 102-4 (96%)
7) Over his career, in games with 2 weeks of preparation time, Brady passes for 59 additional yards, 3 additional first downs passing, and has 0.5 additional passing touchdowns, per Reiss
8) Over his career, in facing a team for the second time in a season, Brady passes for 73 additional yards, with a completion percentage 6% higher, relative to the first game, per Reiss
9) When the Patriots have lost to a team and then had a rematch, under BB their record in 12-5 in the rematch, per Reiss
10) Back-to-back "bad games" are rare for Brady, in an anaylsis at ESPN Boston. A “bad game” for Brady by their definition means a negative TD-Int differential, an even TD-Int differential with multiple interceptions, or a sub-55.0 completion percentage. Immediately following a "bad game" Brady's next game nearly precisely matches his overall career averages, so there is no hangover effect or tendency to have a slump in performance.
