Lombardi on Pats offseason ahead

[patsfaninpa]

You're way off on that one.

He dominated Mathis and Woodley in successive weeks. GB didn't even bother blitzing Clay Matthews because they didn't like the matchup. Got all their pressure right up the middle. Vollmer was better than Mankins this year. Could have made the pro bowl. Agree with you there. Have to give J. Mayo his props too. He had a great season.

 

[JackBauer]

He dominated Mathis and Woodley in successive weeks. GB didn't even bother blitzing Clay Matthews because they didn't like the matchup. Got all their pressure right up the middle. Vollmer was better than Mankins this year. Could have made the pro bowl. Agree with you there. Have to give J. Mayo his props too. He had a great season.

In my opinion, Vollmer was a bit overrated his rookie season, started out this year a little slow, but really picked up as the season wore on. They key now is to upgrade OC and RG.

 

[DW Toys]

In my opinion, Vollmer was a bit overrated his rookie season, started out this year a little slow, but really picked up as the season wore on. They key now is to upgrade OC and RG.

I will buy as well that sir.
DW Toys

 

[patsfaninpa]

I'm thinking the other Pouncey kid from Florida might be a good fit if we can get him at 28 or 33. Downside. Looks like he could upgrade RG and can't play C. Upside. He corrects his problems with the shotgun snaps and can play C. Meat and potatoes draft for me. A couple of guys to help the front 7 on defense and a guy like Pouncey.

 

[DW Toys]

I disagree with Lombardi.

You could say that the Patriots are one or two players away from being really good, but you could also say they're one player away from being mediocre. Take Brady off this team, and they're a 7-9 or so team.

The Patriots have a distinct lack of talent on both lines, and at linebacker. I think a lot of teams get in trouble when they start thinking that they're only one or two players away. Light is about an average LT (though I thought he might have graded out a little better than that this year), and Mankins and Wilfork are among the top players at their positions. I'd say Vollmer has some potential, but didn't improve much, if any, from his rookie year. The others are at or below average--some of the younger guys may have some upside (Brace, Pryor) but some of the older guys are getting worse (Koppen, Warren).

The best way to get two good players, as Lombardi wants the Patriots to do, is to draft five or six. For every Chung, there's a Wheatley, a Maroney, a Butler, etc.

Can I ask a question here? Let's look at this logically. As you say there is a one of five chance the Pats get a hit on the Draft. That is 20%. The NFL avaearge for top tier Draft wins is 17%. Pretty close. Why not take a pick or two and go after an established NFL ready performer who might still be young? Th caveat is the CAP for sure, but upper round picks like Maroney and Wheatley were well compensated for a "0" R.O.I. (return on investment).

Can we just use an example here (please I am not advocating these players)? Anthony Spencer (OLB) and Fitzgerald (WR). Let's just say they fit the venues we might need them for. Why gamble on a Von Miller or a Jon Baldwin if you can get these two who would upgrade immediately and use those other top picks for a DE like a Watt or Kerrigan and an OL stud like Pouncey? So now you have the best of both worlds of some top Draft picks .....plus guaranteed ready to go NFL starters because we still won't know about the Draft choices for some time.

We have six picks in the top 100. If we get two successes (upper tier high end performers and not necessarily All Pro) in those picks as a good return, we would be 33% or double the NFL average of success. Take four and swap two picks won't change the average we can expect that much. But...the two picks that we can use to deal for the proven young vets (Fitz costs more) make more sense to me. But what do I know.
DW Toys

 

[RobertWeathers]

Can I ask a question here? Let's look at this logically. As you say there is a one of five chance the Pats get a hit on the Draft. That is 20%. The NFL avaearge for top tier Draft wins is 17%. Pretty close. Why not take a pick or two and go after an established NFL ready performer who might still be young? Th caveat is the CAP for sure, but upper round picks like Maroney and Wheatley were well compensated for a "0" R.O.I. (return on investment).

There was certainly a ROI on Maroney. We can agree that his performance didn't equate to a 1st rd pick, but his 5 yr deal was $8.37m is very palatable for the output they received. Plus, he didn't get all of it b/c he never hit 1200 yds.

Can we just use an example here (please I am not advocating these players)? Anthony Spencer (OLB) and Fitzgerald (WR). Let's just say they fit the venues we might need them for. Why gamble on a Von Miller or a Jon Baldwin if you can get these two who would upgrade immediately and use those other top picks for a DE like a Watt or Kerrigan and an OL stud like Pouncey? So now you have the best of both worlds of some top Draft picks .....plus guaranteed ready to go NFL starters because we still won't know about the Draft choices for some time.

We have six picks in the top 100. If we get two successes (upper tier high end performers and not necessarily All Pro) in those picks as a good return, we would be 33% or double the NFL average of success. Take four and swap two picks won't change the average we can expect that much. But...the two picks that we can use to deal for the proven young vets (Fitz costs more) make more sense to me. But what do I know.
DW Toys

Your logic makes sense. As you say it depends on your expectations for the slot of the pick and the value on the board that warrants a pick being made. In the 1st rd, I expect IMPACT player. In the 3rd round, I expect a solid player.

Quite frankly, I think 1-2 of these picks should be traded for a vet thats fills a key need on offense and defense respectfully.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Can I ask a question here? Let's look at this logically. As you say there is a one of five chance the Pats get a hit on the Draft. That is 20%. The NFL avaearge for top tier Draft wins is 17%. Pretty close. Why not take a pick or two and go after an established NFL ready performer who might still be young? Th caveat is the CAP for sure, but upper round picks like Maroney and Wheatley were well compensated for a "0" R.O.I. (return on investment).

Can we just use an example here (please I am not advocating these players)? Anthony Spencer (OLB) and Fitzgerald (WR). Let's just say they fit the venues we might need them for. Why gamble on a Von Miller or a Jon Baldwin if you can get these two who would upgrade immediately and use those other top picks for a DE like a Watt or Kerrigan and an OL stud like Pouncey? So now you have the best of both worlds of some top Draft picks .....plus guaranteed ready to go NFL starters because we still won't know about the Draft choices for some time.

We have six picks in the top 100. If we get two successes (upper tier high end performers and not necessarily All Pro) in those picks as a good return, we would be 33% or double the NFL average of success. Take four and swap two picks won't change the average we can expect that much. But...the two picks that we can use to deal for the proven young vets (Fitz costs more) make more sense to me. But what do I know.
DW Toys

The caveat is not only the cap. It's the sad fact that sometimes it's harder to teach an old dog new tricks (or unteach him bad habits) than it is to teach a talented young pup how to behave and play well in THIS system and scheme. On defense in particular (although it's happened on offense as well) we've struggled to get value out of some costly trades and FA signings of late. For every Rodney and Randy and Wes there has been an AD or Starks or Springs or one of the handful of players from Oakland who didn't pan out. Even Bodden, once he had a deal in place, disappeared again as he had in Detroit albeit due to injury...kinda like Colvin. Drafting well allows you to selectively retain your own best. Chasing someone elses supposed best (whom they are oddly willing to part with or unwilling to invest in) just makes everything harder and often from the locker room to the accounting department to the playing field.

Peppers might have been a difference maker here. Then again he might not have or might not nearly have been enough, but the one thing acquiring a player like that would have insured is the loss of a couple of others...or perhaps the inability to extend our pro bowl NT or the league MVP since we led the league in payroll this year even without signing one of your slam dunk FA's or an existing pro bowl OL of our own... Bill always reminds those clammoring for a FA that we can sign anyone we want to, the only caveat being at a price that often includes not signing or retaining someone or several someone else's...and that you never know how any player, veteran or draftee, will perform in your system until you see them in it.

 

[ATippett56]

Can we just use an example here (please I am not advocating these players)? Anthony Spencer (OLB) and Fitzgerald (WR). Let's just say they fit the venues we might need them for. Why gamble on a Von Miller or a Jon Baldwin if you can get these two who would upgrade immediately and use those other top picks for a DE like a Watt or Kerrigan and an OL stud like Pouncey? So now you have the best of both worlds of some top Draft picks .....plus guaranteed ready to go NFL starters because we still won't know about the Draft choices for some time.

With an impending player lockout, none of your free agency scenarios will occur. Without knowing what the salary cap for 2011 will be, no NFL franchise will go on an undetermined spending spree.

We have six picks in the top 100. If we get two successes (upper tier high end performers and not necessarily All Pro) in those picks as a good return, we would be 33% or double the NFL average of success. Take four and swap two picks won't change the average we can expect that much. But...the two picks that we can use to deal for the proven young vets (Fitz costs more) make more sense to me. But what do I know.DW Toys

With an impending player lockout, none of your trade scenarios will occur. Hope for the best, expect the worst, prepare for all contingencies.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Bill always reminds those clammoring for a FA that we can sign anyone we want to, the only caveat being at a price that often includes not signing or retaining someone or several someone else's...and that you never know how any player, veteran or draftee, will perform in your system until you see them in it.

As an example, the Pats had to trade Vrabel to afford Afailius' contract. All in all, as slow as he might have been, I'd much rather have kept Vrabel and dumped Afailius.

 

[slash83]

Who, exactly? I hope you're not speaking of Arrington and butler...neither of those guys are adequate NFL corners.

Arrington and Butler I agree should not be starting on the outside, Ill even throw Wilhite in there as well. But when you start talking about them as nickle and dime backs covering the opposing teams 3rd and 4th receivers I think that is pretty good. Also Meriweather and Chung are good cover safety's.

 

[Rob0729]

I disagree with Lombardi.

You could say that the Patriots are one or two players away from being really good, but you could also say they're one player away from being mediocre. Take Brady off this team, and they're a 7-9 or so team.

The Patriots have a distinct lack of talent on both lines, and at linebacker. I think a lot of teams get in trouble when they start thinking that they're only one or two players away. Light is about an average LT (though I thought he might have graded out a little better than that this year), and Mankins and Wilfork are among the top players at their positions. I'd say Vollmer has some potential, but didn't improve much, if any, from his rookie year. The others are at or below average--some of the younger guys may have some upside (Brace, Pryor) but some of the older guys are getting worse (Koppen, Warren).

The best way to get two good players, as Lombardi wants the Patriots to do, is to draft five or six. For every Chung, there's a Wheatley, a Maroney, a Butler, etc.

The only player that this team as consisted that the Pats could lose to make them lose is Brady, but you can say that about most teams losing their starting QB. Tell me what the Colts' record without Manning would be? The Packers' record without Rodgers? The Saints' record without Brees? The Chargers' record without Rivers?

As long as Brady is upright and mostly healthy, this team can survive the loss of any one player. Sorry, but teams don't luck into a 14-2 record if they are one or two players away from being mediocre.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The only player that this team as consisted that the Pats could lose to make them lose is Brady, but you can say that about most teams losing their starting QB. Tell me what the Colts' record without Manning would be? The Packers' record without Rodgers? The Saints' record without Brees? The Chargers' record without Rivers?

As long as Brady is upright and mostly healthy, this team can survive the loss of any one player. Sorry, but teams don't luck into a 14-2 record if they are one or two players away from being mediocre.

Hoyer for Brady, and this team is probably at least contending for a playoff spot deep in the season.

Painter for Manning, they're contending for the #1 pick in the draft.

 

[Kontradiction]

He dominated Mathis and Woodley in successive weeks. GB didn't even bother blitzing Clay Matthews because they didn't like the matchup. Got all their pressure right up the middle. Vollmer was better than Mankins this year. Could have made the pro bowl. Agree with you there. Have to give J. Mayo his props too. He had a great season.

From what I saw, they did blitz Matthews. The Pats gave Vollmer a bit of help there which meant that Raji that had a bigger game in the pass rush.

 

[RobertWeathers]

From what I saw, they did blitz Matthews. The Pats gave Vollmer a bit of help there which meant that Raji that had a bigger game in the pass rush.

Vollmer got help but that is not unusual to give a RT assistance when facing a speed-rushing sack machine like Matthews.

Raji overpowered Koppen and Connolly. He would have pummeled Dwight Stephenson and Dermonti Dawson if they played too.

 

[Spiral]

Hoyer for Brady, and this team is probably at least contending for a playoff spot deep in the season.

Painter for Manning, they're contending for the #1 pick in the draft.

This year, most mediocre teams were contending for a playoff spot deep in the season.

I think you're right about the Colts. Makes you wonder how much of genius Bill Polian really is.

If you take Joe Flacco off last year's team that steamrolled the Patriots, the Ravens still win that game. If you take Sanchez out of Sunday's game and put Brunell in, the Jets would still be able to win that game.

BB didn't stockpile draft picks for 2011 because he thought he'd only need one or two guys going into next season. The rebuilding is still a work in progress, and no one should be fooled by the 14-2 record. This was largely the result of one of Brady's greatest seasons. The defense is not SB-caliber, and the offensive line has some holes and is showing some wear and tear. I would expect to see about as many rookies getting significant playing time next year as we saw this year.

 

[Sciz]

The Pats gave Vollmer a bit of help there which meant that Raji that had a bigger game in the pass rush.

As opposed to the running game, where I saw Crumpler and Gronk each dominate Matthews a few times, freeing up the OL to block the rest of the defense, leading to a very nice 6.5 YPC.

 

[Brarrell]

With an impending player lockout, none of your free agency scenarios will occur. Without knowing what the salary cap for 2011 will be, no NFL franchise will go on an undetermined spending spree.

With an impending player lockout, none of your trade scenarios will occur. Hope for the best, expect the worst, prepare for all contingencies.

For the love of can we stop with the cap talk blah blah blah. Look not only does BB need to answer questions so do the Krafts who have not spent to keep some of their best players who were in their prime such as Samuel. They let him go then spent 3 years paying over the hill FA's and drafting 5 cornerbacks to replace him. So was it worth it? Instead of keeping the guy and then addressing your other needs we wasted time and money trying to replace him. This goes back to the owner. There has been no team in cap jail over the last 5-6 years it all comes down to do you want to spend bonus money that comes directly from the owners pocket and I guess if I was in Buffalo I would have to think twice, but when you are the 3rd wealthiest team in the league in a city with a rabid fan base you can't keep playing the cap story not when the Red sox and the Celtics have figured it out that you have to spend money to get Athletes and you have to pay them.

 

[Marqui]

I hope the Pats go aggressively after DeAngelo Williams.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I hope the Pats go aggressively after DeAngelo Williams.

I thought he was going to become one of the best backs in the league after his 08 season 273 carries 1515 yrds 5.5apc. 18 td caught 22 passes and 2 more td's. They brought Stewart in and started to share time in 09 216 c 1117 yds 5.2 apc and then he got hurt last year. Not sure what type of contract he can demand. Maybe one like Dante Stallworth where he can opt out if he wants to after a good year. He'll be 28 in April. Should have another 3-4 years left.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

For the love of can we stop with the cap talk blah blah blah. Look not only does BB need to answer questions so do the Krafts who have not spent to keep some of their best players who were in their prime such as Samuel. They let him go then spent 3 years paying over the hill FA's and drafting 5 cornerbacks to replace him. So was it worth it? Instead of keeping the guy and then addressing your other needs we wasted time and money trying to replace him. This goes back to the owner. There has been no team in cap jail over the last 5-6 years it all comes down to do you want to spend bonus money that comes directly from the owners pocket and I guess if I was in Buffalo I would have to think twice, but when you are the 3rd wealthiest team in the league in a city with a rabid fan base you can't keep playing the cap story not when the Red sox and the Celtics have figured it out that you have to spend money to get Athletes and you have to pay them.

Stop listening to Felger. Throwing money at problems doesn't solve them, just ask Dan Snyder. Asante was on that 2007 undefeated team that found itself defeated when it truly mattered. Asante was one of the reasons it got defeated. Belichick wasn't interested in overpaying for the priviledge. The team who was has had second and third thoughts about deciding to. CB play wasn't the determining factor in our 2008 or 2009 seasons. Inability to run the ball and stop the run and keep the QB upright was. You invest the big bucks in your franchise QB if you are lucky enough to have one and in the trenches because that is where most games are won and lost. We have sufficient talent in the backfield and at the skill positions to win. What we lack is sufficient talent in the trenches. Same was true in February 2008 even though we had a couple of pro bowl bound players in those trenches including our LT, LG, and C along with a $9M WR. We even had $10M DE - the problem being what happens when overpriced players don't perform at contract level.

The NBA is a whole other animal with 5 players on the court playing offense and defense and limited strategy. Talent tends to dominate. Baseball is another whole other animal where pitching tends to dominate (might correlate that to QBing where we currently have the highest paid player in the league locked up for 5 more seasons). Yet in football dominant defense wins championships moreso than dominant offense, and the best approach is to achieve a reasonable balance. The draft is also more important in football than FA because of how the college game correlates to the pro game and because there are no minor developmental leagues and because of of roster size and the more violent contact nature of the game.

Football is about teambuilding, not talent collection. It's also about coaching and scheme and execution. That's why Haynesworth was such a waste of resources in DC. Ditto McNabb. If spending money foolishly or accumulating talent was the football difference maker some still claim it to be, Jerry Jones wouldn't be hosting Superbowls instead of playing in them and guys like Dan Snyder and Andy Reid and AJ Smith and Woody Johnson and a host of others would have a couple of Lombardi's sitting in their trophy cases from the last decade or so... The Bears got beyond the NFCC Championship game before they added Cutler and Peppers... They didn't need to tie up 20% of their cap in two players and bring in a pass happy OC. They just needed to build a better balanced team.

That is why it's teams like NE and Pittsburgh and even Indy who have built through the draft while drafting towards the end of rounds and largely avoided top tier splashy FA signings save only select home grown talent extensions and musical chair coaching and scheme changes who have dominated (6 of ten SB's won and possibly counting and 8 of ten attended) the post season for the last decade.