Lombardi on Pats offseason ahead

[*ChungFu*]

The "Belichick never trades up" line is one that has been repeated so many times it is now accepted as fact.

For better or worse, he has traded up for Matt Light, Kenyatta Jones, Daniel Graham, Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Bethel Johnson, Asante Samuel, Chad Jackson and Ron Brace.

With the number of holes that needed to be filled I can't really find fault with trading down in exchange for extra picks the last couple of years.

With that many early picks my first expectation would be to trade one to the future - similar to turning a #89 pick a year ago to a #33 this year. Moving up that high in one year looks pretty good right now even though most were complaining last spring.

However, the combination of so many early draft picks and relatively fewer needs makes me think this could be a year we see the Pats move up rather than down.

Then again the Pats could take some combination of OLB, DE, G, C, T, RB and WR in the first four rounds - without significantly moving up once.

When preceded by moving down some of those moving up picks don't fit the essence of the article. With the exception of Ty Warren most of those picks were made in our current range. I guess I interpreted the article to mean a couple of picks in the Top 15 or so.
I think every Pats fan knows that BB is all over the place in movement...up and down.

 

[Patspsycho]

IMO, the Pats miss an enforcer and hitters in their defense.

An enforcer like Rodney Harrison or Bart Scott (hate to say that but its true) Somebody with attitude. I cannot pick one player on this NE defense with those traits or that strikes fear in opponents. Drew Coleman was laying the wood out there tearing the decals off the NE helmets. That used to be how the NE defense played.

I didnt see a big hit from Merriweather, Chung or anybody.

It was missing in this particular playoff game, but they've brought that nastiness this season. They really took it to Pittsburgh when we played them (gave Hines Ward a concussion).

The enforcer mentality is there- it just wasn't a factor in the playoff game.

 

[West Philly Patriot]

I would hope Belichick has learned his lesson on that front after watching Sanchez flee the pocket (even though there was no rush), re-direct Edwards with his hands, wait for him to get open, make a sandwich, then deliver the pass for a big gain. This defense took some major strides this year, but they also made the likes of Matt Flynn and Mark Sanchez look like HOFers. Maybe if we can add another DE and OLB to the mix that can actually get in the backfield and rush the passer, Sanchez might look a little more like himself.

Amen Brother.

I would love to see us make a move for Quinn to play opposite cunningham in the future and grab a DE with 1-b hopefully one of the camerons are still around or even muhammad wilkerson who I think will rise on many draft boards. What happened this year can't happen again we gave this game to sanchez on a silver ******* platter.

 

[Triumph]

It was missing in this particular playoff game, but they've brought that nastiness this season. They really took it to Pittsburgh when we played them (gave Hines Ward a concussion).

The enforcer mentality is there- it just wasn't a factor in the playoff game.

I suppose I should have said consistent attitude. There were droughts during the season when I thought the D played soft.

Rodney Harrison had it every game. BB recruited him because of that never say die mentality. He changed the defense when he arrived. I recall Harrison starting a fight in 2003 training camp because he was playing too rough.

 

[Rob0729]

I think the Pats will be really agressive too. Here is my reasoning:

1.) Assuming there is a rookie cap, the value paradym shifts from trading down to trading up. If you don't have to pay a top 5 pick, $50-60 million and rather $15-20 million, then it is worth the risk to get a potential franchise player. The Pats may not trade up into the top five, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 17th pick becomes a top 10 with trades.

2.) Assuming they go back to the pre-2010 free agency rules or something similar. The market will be flushed with free agents this offseason. All the players who would have been UFA, but were RFA last year will now be UFA with only so many franchise tags to be given out. If the franchise tag rules are altered (which is likely), there is a chance the number of players franchised could dwindle. This could be a very crazy free agency season (assuming the CBA is done early enough).

3.) I think the Pats are in very good cap shape with not many free agents to resign. Mankins will require bank, but all the other free agents the Pats would need to contain are not going to cost much to resign. Miguel doesn't have the future cap page anymore, but I think the Pats are very much on the low end of cap commitments for 2011 (part of the benefit of having a young defense).

 

[upstater1]

Hell, if we can sign Woodley in FA, sign Vincent Jackson too!

Then go into the draft and leave no stone unturned.

Marcell Dareus, DaQuan Bowers, Nick Fairley, Mike Pouncey, trade EVERYTHING to get two of these guys.

 

[DW Toys]

I think we are active in Free Agency. I believe we will be in strong cap shape.
I hope that we built a power running game, and strengthen the front 7.

Its nice that we can score bunches of points with the best QB in the NFL, but BB needs to recognize he is putting Brady in a position to fail by forcing opponents to sell out and gamble to take him away.
Its a great philosophy to win a lot of games, because you cant take him away often, but it is clearly difficult to get through a playoff run without running into a team that comes up with a good gameplan to stop our one dimensional offense and execute it, especially when we dont have a D that we can count on to win 14-13 games.

Great post!
I feel the same on FA as they all let me know here. Kids are great, but take time to develop and are not a guarantee. Id rather have a couple Draft picks up top and trade away the balance for some establish NFL ready talent or hit the FA hard as in 2007. As another poster explained so eloquently that the TB window for SB trips gets smaller every year.

I am one of that school who was adamant that the Moss loss would come back to bite us in the ass. It did, even if for one game, the last. All those "smarter than thou" radio heads like Felger were singing with glee when Moss was shipped out. Oops on their part. I liked the remodeled offense but Rex figured out how to stop it. A combination would have added flexibility with both Moss and Branch. I still say the 4th down play, Moss catches that ball. Yes Moss was winding down and maybe his demeanor was at issue but he is still a force and although I like Branch, give me Moss for that last game against what Rex did.

You are right AJ. Let the Jets have to worry about TB and then Moss for one game. Yes, his playoff numbers were not great but the 2007 season was still way better than this year to me (and more successful where we finished with a SB loss or not).

I would not object to a new more humble Moss (and cheaper)to come back (notice #81 was not given out). I would not even mind Ochocinco for a couple years. He would play his butt off for the first two years anyway. He is bigger than the smurfs as well. Now I will get torched but a very cheap T.O. would have made a difference in the Jets game.

Back on point, there are many field stretchers available by trade or FA and a few decent pass rushers. This Draft class WR is very week after Green and Jones. No help there.

Did we run out of talent in the end? Our D line was weakened and our OLB guys can be upgraded. Tully had a bad year. Ninkovitch is still a work in progress as is Spikes and Fletcher. I can't figure out Guyton. None of these guys is not replaceable. Our RB core was o.k. and I like Ben and Dan but not as bell cows. RB as far as trade or FA is mediocre.

Why not try for two (like he did in last years Draft at TE to cover the bet) of the premium pass rushers higher in the Draft and take Ingram who I (in my opinion) think will be a great NFL back and after him I cannot see a RB in this years Draft higher than a third round grade, and save a pick for a added OL piece? Then hit the FA or trade for a bigger, faster WR of merit.

You have a plethora of young guys. Let them develop and add some more talent.....not just bodies. All you "Draft or Death" Cousins, we do not have roster space for six new picks to sit and play the Taylor Price game. In my opinion we can upgrade with blue chip combination of maybe six picks, trades and FA guys if you view the roster.

If you look at the Bears, getting Urlacher back from injury was helpful but the one thing that put their D over the top was FA Peppers. Anyone deny that?
DW Toys

 

[Marqui]

Is Hali going to be a free agent? He's better than Woodley.

 

[JackBauer]

I think the odds of us getting Woodley are much higher than Hali. I don't see Hali leaving KC.

 

[Urgent]

I fully expect the Patriots to be extremely aggressive this offseason. The pain of that loss will serve as a reminder on what they need to do to ensure it never happens again. The plan for the Patriots is fairly simple as they need to add at least two blue chip players in their front seven and find someone, anyone, who can put pressure on the quarterback. The Patriots have coverage men, but they lack the ability to rush the passer and create negative plays.

With two picks in every round for the first four rounds, the Patriots will not have enough roster spots available to ensure those players will make the team. As a result, I can see them being aggressive in the draft to ensure they come away with the specific players they need. They have depth, they have youth, but they need an impact defensive player who can be impactful right away -- not down the road.

As I have been since McGinest left, I am all for the Patriots being aggressive on the front seven. We've said it for five years now: the departures of McGinest, Vrabel, Colvin, and more recently Seymour have not been adequately replaced.

However, I disagree that the Patriots will not have roster spots available for six top picks, or ~10 overall. The Patriots always replace 10-15 roster spots, and sometimes more than 20.

Further, I disagree on the "two in the fourth." I believe we traded one fourth away for Branch.

On the 10 spots, at least the following positions could be upgraded or replaced given free agency/retirement:

QB Hoyer
RB Morris FA
RB Taylor FA
RB Faulk
WR Tate/Taylor
OT Light FA
OT Levoir
OG Mankins FA
OG Neal
OG Ohrnberger
DL Warren FA
DL Cohen
DL Deaderick
LB Banta Cain
LB White
DB Meriweather
DB Page
CB Wilhite
CB Butler

I don't expect 18-20 new players, but wouldn't be shocked at the departure through free agency, trade, retirement, or turnover of any of those above. Further, training camp injuries are unpredictable. If the Pats like 10 players in the draft, they will take 10.

 

[Marqui]

I think the odds of us getting Woodley are much higher than Hali. I don't see Hali leaving KC.

If that's the case I'd prefer trade up in the draft and get Quinn/Bowers/Smith. Woodley is a good player but slightly overrated IMO. He's not a guy I'd give a massive OLB contract to.

 

[JackBauer]

If that's the case I'd prefer trade up in the draft and get Quinn/Bowers/Smith. Woodley is a good player but slightly overrated IMO. He's not a guy I'd give a massive OLB contract to.

Hell, if it were up to me I'd do both.

 

[ivanvamp]

After losing Julius Peppers to free agency, the Carolina Panthers could take him #1 overall.

The Panthers need a LOT more than just one impact player. The Pats have a lot of young players that might be useful to Carolina. I wonder if the Pats could make this kind of deal:

Pats trade the #17, #33 (haha...Carolina's pick), and #92, Darius Butler, and, say, Ron Brace, to get the #1 pick. I know according to the points in the draft chart this wouldn't work. But Carolina needs a lot of help, and all four of those picks would give them some useful ammo.

For the Pats, they'd end up with the #1, the #28, #60, and #74 in the first 3 rounds. Still a lot of picks.

 

[DW Toys]

Hell, if it were up to me I'd do both.

Good comment. I actually agree with your assessment.
DW Toys

 

[Rob0729]

Is Hali going to be a free agent? He's better than Woodley.

yes, but he will probably be franchised. If not, the Pats should go after him since not only is he an emerging stud, but he played in the same system in KC.

 

[ATippett56]

I seriously don't believe the New England Patriots will trade up especially with the potential NFL player lockout looming. If the NFL player lockout continues past the 2011 NFL Draft, the following mock draft for the New England Patriots covers most of the roster contingencies except for Logan Mankins:

#17 Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB Purdue or Justin Houston, DE/OLB Georgia
#28 Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
#33 Mike Pouncey, OG Florida or Stefen Wisniewski, C/OG Penn State
#60 Jarvis Jenkins, DT Clemson
#74 Rahim Moore, FS UCLA or DeMarco Murray, RB Oklahoma or Shane Vereen, RB California
#92 Sam Acho, DE/OLB Texas or Stephen Schilling, OG Michigan
#124 Clint Boling, OG Georgia or Stevan Ridley, RB LSU

Player ratings based upon NFL Draft Scout Top 750 for 2011

NFL Draft Scout----Powered By: The Sports Xchange

 

[jays52]

This is a draft where every underclassman with any shred of talent is going to declare in order to avoid the rookie cap. There's a chance that they will trade for depth, but I think that the most important thing is continuing to parlay these assets in order to ensure a steady influx of talent. To be a bit crude, they can't blow their load this year, because picks in the top three rounds are the most valuable assets in the NFL. I can see trading a bit up utilizing the thirds to secure elite talent in the first, then trading down to secure future and current picks. I may be in the minority here, but continuing to build upon these assets is critical to the overall health of the team.

 

[upstater1]

This is a draft where every underclassman with any shred of talent is going to declare in order to avoid the rookie cap. There's a chance that they will trade for depth, but I think that the most important thing is continuing to parlay these assets in order to ensure a steady influx of talent. To be a bit crude, they can't blow their load this year, because picks in the top three rounds are the most valuable assets in the NFL. I can see trading a bit up utilizing the thirds to secure elite talent in the first, then trading down to secure future and current picks. I may be in the minority here, but continuing to build upon these assets is critical to the overall health of the team.

The rookie cap is really only going to impact the first 15-20 picks so I don't think many underclassmen will project themselves to enter, especially since the next CBA may call for much shorter contracts for rookies.

DE Aldon Smith declared maybe prematurely, and so did his teammate QB Blaine Gabbert, but outside of those two, I can't think of many who are trying to beat the new CBA.

And of course, there's the possibility that the new CBA comes before the draft.

 

[letekro]

The Panthers need a LOT more than just one impact player. The Pats have a lot of young players that might be useful to Carolina. I wonder if the Pats could make this kind of deal:

Pats trade the #17, #33 (haha...Carolina's pick), and #92, Darius Butler, and, say, Ron Brace, to get the #1 pick. I know according to the points in the draft chart this wouldn't work. But Carolina needs a lot of help, and all four of those picks would give them some useful ammo.

For the Pats, they'd end up with the #1, the #28, #60, and #74 in the first 3 rounds. Still a lot of picks.

Great for the pats, but why would Carolina do it? As you said they need IMPACT players. The number 1 pick should be an impact player. Judging by the mocks, the chances of getting a true impact player out of 17 or 33 are much lower. And we know Darius and Brace do not meet the definition of impact players. So really, you're asking Carolina to take on 4 question marks in exchange for one stud. Not good business for them.

 

[upstater1]

Say Fairley falls to the Broncos.

According to the value chart, the Patriots would need to give up both firsts, their late second and a 3rd to even get into the conversation with the Broncos.

4 picks for Fariley.

The big upshot for the Patriots is that they would come out of the draft with Fairley and let's say Pouncey/Wisniewski ar #33.

They'd obviously need to do some work in FA then to address OLB and WR and RB.