lockout ALMOST over!!! (Merged)

[Wolfpack]

Re: Lockout IS NOT OVER...

There is one BIG reason why they need to get them out there this week: Can you imagine what the games will be like with the players and the refs all knowing that this will be their last week with one another? It would be mayhem.

Why would it be any worse than what we've already seen? Fines are still fines and money is still money.

 

[Wolfpack]

Am I correct in that the regulars will not be doing the Thursday night game? If so, doesnt that make some sort of imbalnce?

I'm not sure. Having bad refs doesn't help or hurt either team in advance, so where's the imbalance?

In other words, it's not like you can say having bad refs will benefit the Ravens so it is an unfair imbalance. You never know whom a bad call will benefit.

 

[ausbacker]

I'm not sure about everyone else but I would prefer the replacement officials for this contest. The probability of a Cleveland win has to be higher with the replacements right?

 

[jnug]

It is not an imbalance for the two teams playing that night but if the game is decided on a bum call then the loser has been hurt relative to their standings against the other teams they are competing with for post season births and the winner has benefited in the same regard.

I suppose you could also make the case that the rep-refs have added such a wild card element of uncertainty to the whole thing that the favored team is unfairly penalized more than the dog.

 

[Wolfpack]

I'm not sure about everyone else but I would prefer the replacement officials for this contest. The probability of a Cleveland win has to be higher with the replacements right?

I don't see why that would be the case that bad refs benefit Cleveland. You could argue that bad refs would give the better team the benefit of the doubt more often or help the home team out more often or something like that, so it benefits Baltimore.

I only wish the Ravens were playing a halfway respectable team because this could totally be trap game for them. Too bad they're playing the abysmal Browns.

 

[ausbacker]

I don't see why that would be the case that bad refs benefit Cleveland. You could argue that bad refs would give the better team the benefit of the doubt more often or help the home team out more often or something like that, so it benefits Baltimore.

I only wish the Ravens were playing a halfway respectable team because this could totally be trap game for them. Too bad they're playing the abysmal Browns.

Bad officiating clearly benefitted Baltimore. Unfortunately, Baltimore is the home team again (as you pointed out).

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I don't see why that would be the case that bad refs benefit Cleveland. You could argue that bad refs would give the better team the benefit of the doubt more often or help the home team out more often or something like that, so it benefits Baltimore.

I only wish the Ravens were playing a halfway respectable team because this could totally be trap game for them. Too bad they're playing the abysmal Browns.

I'm no expert on odds/statistics, but I would agree with ausbacker's guess. In a fairly contested match, the odds of Baltimore winning are alot higher than Cleveland's. When you have to factor in the possibility that one side may get screwed, that favors the underdog IMO. Yes there's a chance the screwups favor Bmore, but then you figure Bmore most likely would have won anyways had there been minimal screwups.

 

[jnug]

Without question, normally adding wild cards to any probability formula will serve to even the odds between two potential outcomes where one outcome has a higher probability than the other.

The difference here might be that the wild card is not as wild as we might think it is. While the rep-refs are so bad you can assume their performance to be the equivalent of a wild card in an absolute sense, what appears to happen is that the rep-refs are unduly influenced by the home crowd more than the reg-refs are influenced by the home crowd. So in this instance at least it would appear possible that the rep-refs are not so much a wild card as they are an element that favors the home team.

Appeared to happen to us in Balt and to the Pack in Seattle.