Life without Revis and McCourty

[Ivan]

Whats big dollars to dmac? Is someone gonna make him the highest paid safety? Has he surpassed thomas?

He's not better than Thomas III but he could very well end up getting more because the draft is empty at safety and the free agent market weak while there are a large number of teams needing help there. However it is obvious he wants to stay in NE but the question is how much the Patriots would give him.

 

[50-yard-line]

Okay, so the Jets are throwing everything out there that they're going to lavish Revis in a dragon's hoard of treasure, and this after Woody oopsies with his Revis remark.

FFS Goodell, will you do something here?

 

[Jimke]

I don't see how hoping and praying that they'll stay, or bowing at the feet of BB after every move, is any better.

Both players are going to get offered big money to leave, and the Pats under BB have shown that they set a price for all players and stick to it, no matter what the level of play of that player. Show me where I'm wrong.

The Patriots already have the contracts for McCourty and Revis set in stone. They would rather
finish 32nd in pass defense than exceed these amounts. My prediction is that they lose both of
these players along with most of their other free agents.

 

[PatsGuy]

When the Eagles traded McCoy, they freed up 10 mill in cap space. Everyone there is waiting for the other shoe to drop. Kelly is known not to trust draft picks. Expect them to go hard after MCCourty

 

[Jimke]

The thing that will tick me off the most when the Patriots lose Revis is that Jonathan Kraft knows
full well that the Patriots have no intention of making an acceptable offer.

 

[RobertWeathers]

1 is possible.
2 is doubtful. They can't trade him with a 20 million salary on a one-year rental.
3 is a really interesting angle on this. Consider, if McCourty signs elsewhere, the Pats will get a nice comp pick, likely a 3rd (especially if he gets the big $$$$).

But if they CUT Revis, they won't get a comp pick. But if the pay Revis the Option and he leaves at the end of next year, they would get a comp pick.

I know that talking 3rd rounders as a consideration when discussing DMac and Revis is kind of a stretch, but I suspect it does matter somewhat.

Yea for #2 there would need to be some funky stuff going on. The receiving team would need the cap space to initially absorb Revis's salary.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The thing that will tick me off the most when the Patriots lose Revis is that Jonathan Kraft knows
full well that the Patriots have no intention of making an acceptable offer.

Where are you getting this information?

 

[Gronkowski123]

Okay, so the Jets are throwing everything out there that they're going to lavish Revis in a dragon's hoard of treasure, and this after Woody oopsies with his Revis remark.

FFS Goodell, will you do something here?

if the patriots were " tampering " with another teams player, that story would lead every sportscenter/sports show.

schefter says it's down to us and the jests. if that's the case, leaving brady to play with geno is ridiculous

 

[DefenseRules]

Revis is all about the money. He always has been and he always will be. He is not signing here long term. The Pats will not offer him enough money to make him happy.

 

[JMC00]

Revis is all about the money. He always has been and he always will be. He is not signing here long term. The Pats will not offer him enough money to make him happy.

If you actually did a little research you'd see that is overblown.

One time has he had a contract beef and it was when he was making $1m and had become the best CB in the league.

 

[IllegalContact]

these things are so tiring, and based on the long term results of the pats current front office, I'm going to place my faith in them regardless of whether both of them, one of them, or none of them are here next year. moving forward from any of these scenarios will be interesting.

I still think Revis will be back

 

[DefenseRules]

If you actually did a little research you'd see that is overblown.

One time has he had a contract beef and it was when he was making $1m and had become the best CB in the league.

I will believe it when I see it. For now, I eye this negotiation with a great deal of skepticism.

 

[Biffins]

I think we can all agree that losing both McCourty and Revis would be colossal fail.

 

[A man named Brady]

Losing one would be bad, losing both would be an epic disaster.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Losing one would be bad, losing both would be an epic disaster.

It could get ugly quick...

Im trying to think which secondary was worse if both DMC and Revis walk.

2005 Wilson/Hawkins/Samuel/Hobbs/Poteat/Sanders
2008 Merriweather/Hobbs/ONeil/Sanders/Weatley/Whilite
2010 DMC/Merriweather/Chung/Arrington/Sanders/Butler/Arrington
2011 Chung/DMC/Moore/Ihedigbo/Arrington (outside)/Molden

 

[Jlaff]

EVEN IF the Patriots lose both Revis and McCourty, we all need to remember this is one of the youngest teams in the league, and they won a Superbowl! (I've heard talk of youngest team ever to win as well).

We should not underestimate the ability of the coaching staff and another year of experience for the players still in the system to overcome production lost to free agency. If this group of players is competing at a championship level now, just wait and see what the other 50 players can do next year. The team as a whole, by virtue of being so young, is still on an upward trajectory.

 

[A man named Brady]

It could get ugly quick...

Im trying to think which secondary was worse if both DMC and Revis walk.

2005 Wilson/Hawkins/Samuel/Hobbs/Poteat/Sanders
2008 Merriweather/Hobbs/ONeil/Sanders/Weatley/Whilite
2010 DMC/Merriweather/Chung/Arrington/Sanders/Butler/Arrington
2011 Chung/DMC/Moore/Ihedigbo/Arrington (outside)/Molden

The 11 pats are the worst secondary to ever play in the SB

 

[RobertWeathers]

The 11 pats are the worst secondary to ever play in the SB

No question....and if they won no one would have cared.

 

[Patriots1364life]

Another DB selection in the draft?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I'm a huge McCourty fan, so I'm really hoping he re-signs. And I was probably one of the few who was against Revis coming to New England because I thought he'd be a selfish diva. Obviously totally wrong about that and he was a great addition and I don't think we win the Super Bowl without him.

I took a look at the past few years to see the potential impact on our pass defense. Obviously it's a flawed exercise because players have changed, roles have changed, guys have progressed/regressed, but FWIW:

2012: 271.4 YPG (29th), 27 TDs, 20 INTs, 86.9 Opposition QB Rating
2013: 239.0 YPG (18th), 25 TDs, 17 INTs, 81.0 Opposition QB Rating
2014: 239.8 YPG (17th), 24 TDs, 16 INTs, 84.0 Opposition QB Rating

2012 was rough, but it got better after we traded for Talib and moved McCourty to safety. While it's tough to tease out who had the bigger impact, the 2012 split is worth mentioning:

2012 (9 games before Talib trade/McCourty move)
285.3 YPG, 18 TDs, 11 INTs

2012 (6 games after Talib trade/McCourty move)
260.8 YPG, 9 TDs, 8 INTs

Talib didn't play the last week so excluding it for now. In case you're interested, the secondary did great against a terrible Dolphins passing attack so you can take that as proof of McCourty's value, or say it's too small a sample size to bother. You can also dismiss the second half improvement due to coaching, as our teams tend to improve as the season goes on. Nothing is absolute here.

But we can see a significant improvement in 2013 from a full season of those two upgrades.

The Revis signing in 2014 improved us, but it wasn't a massive leap over the team with Talib, and part of that might also be due to Talib missing 3 games in 2013. But having an elite corner paired with the position switch for McCourty was a big improvement over 2012. So losing both could be pretty significant.

We were fortunate to have an elite corner in Revis fall into our laps to replace the elite corner we lost in Talib. I don't think we can count on that happening again next week because the Bucs don't have anyone left to give away.

My guess is their first goal is Revis, and if the price gets too high, McCourty is the fallback. Ryan should get minutes at whoever we can't replace, and Butler will also get a chance to take over a top CB role.

BTW, Talib's 4 games that he missed were mostly against crappy QBs so I'm not putting much stock in this. But FWIW, those 4 games with McCourty and no Talib/Revis looked like this:

2012/2013, 4 games: 3-1 based on 2 wins over the Dolphins, 1 win over the Steelers, and a loss to the Geno Smith Jets?!?

232.8 YPG, 7 TDs, 6 INTs

Most of the damage done by the only competent QB on that list. Big Ben threw for 400 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs in a close game until the 4th quarter, when the Patriots dominated 28-7 to turn a 27-24 game into a laugher.

So we could potentially look decent with McCourty alone, obviously not as good as with Talib/Revis/other elite corner involved, but not awful either.