What are you looking for? There is a variety of DE types with few of them being classic Patriot 3-4 DEs. Dareus is the only guy in the top 17 that fits the mold. And he should go in the top 3 with #6 being his floor.
Box and I have been going back and forth on Jordan. I really like him...Box not so much. We evaluate him about the same but are looking for different things.
People looking for Dareus skills see DE as out of reach and would rather have Wilkinson later...addressing OLB or OT at #17.
People looking for a more multi-purpose athletic type see value at #17 (or a slight trade-up) to get Jordan or Watt with Heyward as plan B.
Some see more value in the 2nd round range with Jenkins, Ballard or Austin. Still very talented but available later...giving the Pats the ability to address other areas first.
Still others think that getting the monsters like Taylor/Ellis is the right approach...or the guys pegged for 4-3 DT like Liuget, Nevis or Paea make sense.
I agree that this is the year of the DE. They are just very different. Depending on what roles/skill sets you are looking for, you will either see an urgency to trade up, see value at #17 or even be content waiting until later.
You know how you can tell that you are reading an awesome thread. You get your mind changed at least 3 times.
This thread has everything. Well thought out rational opinions that were defended well and argued against just as as well. If a Pats fans reads these six pages he would get a great insight into the Pats potential moves and the players who will be involved
I added Metaphor's quote to my post because I think he articulated the basic situation the Pats face as well as I've seen it done, so its worth repeating.
Here's my 2 cents for what its worth.
1. Clearly the value and depth in the first round of this draft is on the DL.
2. In every past draft when this was the case BB has taken the DLman since IMHO he see's the position as one the hardest to acquire at the high end. Sure you can find capable DLmen later in the draft, but ones with the potential to be elite don't come around very often.
3. While the Pats are likely to go DL with that first pick, However, if you are really honest they don't exactly HAVE to, short term. Stroud, TWarren, GWarren, Wilfolk, Wright, Brace, Pryor, Deadrick ETC will give the 2011 Patriots a pretty solid DL just as it is. Certainly a big improvement on the injury riddled DL we had last season.
4. So when picking a DLman this early in the draft the Pats should be looking to add qualities that are different from the ones they already have. They already have several solid, proven pros. While it wouldn't hurt, they don't need to add "more of the same" just to get younger.
5. That is what makes VJC's impassioned defense of JJ Watt so compelling. This is a draft where NO ONE doesn't present some kind of a risk, even at #1. At 17 or where ever the Pats make their first pick, the guy will end up being somewhat controversial.
6. Common wisdom would say that BB will take the safest bet with his first pick. However THIS year, given the make up of the players available, THIS YEAR is the year to think outside the box. THIS is the year not to take the "safest" player, but the player with the greatest potential to grow into that "special" kind of guy.
7. That's what I'm thinking that BB is thinking. It may be JJ Watt or it maybe Cameron or Wilkerson, so someone else. I'm betting that BB ALREADY knows who it is, and is crafting draft to move up or down to get the player he has targeted.
8. The rumors the the Pats will trade #28 are simply because it makes the most sense. Usually players found at 20-40 carry very similar grade, so its easier to see the Pats moving down with #28 than #33 for a number of reasons.
a, obviously 28 has more value than 33 and would get a better value in return.
b. #33, because of the way the draft is set up, has MORE of a value that than the mere points its allotted.
c. There will be be several teams at the top of the 2nd round who will want to make sure they get their guy before someone else does, ie teams who need a QB. I would be very disappointed if the Pats trade this pick and JUST get "fair value for it.
d. So I can see a scenario where the Pats trade BOTH 28 and 33 and STILL wind up with 4 players with top 50 grades and an additional top 40 pick next year.
9. Assuming the CBA gets done before May, and I think it will, this draft will have a lesser impact that most because I think EVERY team will be able to find capable, cap friendly players in FA. Almost a third of the league will be FAs this off season. I think as the work stoppage continues, the pressure to get a deal done, will grow for THESE players even more than those under contract. There are just so damned many of them.
Finally Kudos to BB for putting the Pats in the position to literally be in control of this draft after the first 10 picks are made.
