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Lawson to Cincy for one year...

Discussion in 'NFL Football Forum' started by farn, Aug 2, 2011.

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  1. farn

    farn 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    PFT says...

    Not that I necessarily thought Lawson would be some kind of savoir, but if he's willing to go to Cincy for a year at 3M, would he have come to NE for 2,65M ? And, is he worth it ?

    Seems a cheap enough amount, must be BB determined there was no value...
     
  2. Marqui

    Marqui In the Starting Line-Up

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    Glad the Pats stayed away from that overrated stiff.
     
  3. italia44

    italia44 In the Starting Line-Up

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    A one yr contract to the Bengals?......Who is his agent...P.T. Barnum?:singing:
     
  4. lovsn

    lovsn On the Roster

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    Here's a question. Would you rather

    a) Sign Matt Light for $7m this year and $5m next year
    or
    b) Kept Kaczur at $3.5m for 2011, start him at RT, move Vollmer to LT for 2011, and then sign Manny Lawson for 1 yr $3.5m.

    Both options cost the same money, but not cutting Kaczur this year also saves you another $1m in cap space next year.
     
  5. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 In the Starting Line-Up

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    he's not any better then Rob Ninkovich
     
  6. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    First, Light doesn't have a contract as you stated. Light got a $12 million deal with $7 million guaranteed. That doesn't mean his cap # is $7 million this year. Odds are that his cap hit for 2011 is around $3-4 million. Light's 2011 cap hit is probably about the same as Kazcur's was before he was cut.

    Second, if the Pats wanted Lawson and Lawson wanted to be a Patriot, he would be here right now. The Pats could have easily figured out a way to obsorb a $3.5 million hit.

    Third, the fact that Lawson could only get an one year "prove it" contract on a team that is one of the worst franchises in the NFL tells me that most personnel people around the league don't think nearly as highly of him as fans do. There are several potential contending 3-4 teams with outside linebacker needs and Lawson chose to go to a 4-3 team which most people think is going to be in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. It is also a team notorious for having a cheap owner who isn't likely to give him a long term contract after this year.

    Manny Lawson was the best 3-4 OLB in a very weak class of 3-4 OLB free agents. The guy has had less sacks in the last two years than TBC had in 2009. He is an above average 3-4 OLB, but nothing special.

    If the Pats are moving towards a 4 man front, Lawson isn't even worth getting anyway.
     
  7. lovsn

    lovsn On the Roster

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    Fancy answering the question or are you too busy surveying the land from atop your high horse?
     
  8. Calciumee

    Calciumee PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    The first point he made makes your question wrong, so it's pointless!

    Both options aren't the same money!

    And if they were I'd rather have Light than Kaczur and Lawson!
     
  9. farouche

    farouche Rookie

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    I love Manny Lawson, but he's a classic 3-4 outside linebacker - light, rangy, suited to rushing the passer and playing pass defense in space. Ironically, Cincy had him targeted when Lawson was a rookie in the draft, and reports at the time said that if he had fallen to them (one more spot, if I remember correctly) they would have transitioned that year to a 3-4.

    In other words, mark this down as another small bit of evidence that the Pats are moving to a 4-3 (of some sort).
     
  10. lovsn

    lovsn On the Roster

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    I think the decision is close, which is why I asked the question, but I'd probably prefer to take Lawson and Kaczur, as I think having Vollmer on the left might actually be an upgrade over Light in terms of protecting the blindside.

    As for the money, if $7m out of $12m is guaranteed to Light, there's only a few ways it can be broken down. The guaranteed money is comprised of either a signing bonus or guaranteed first year salary (guaranteed money can't be in the second year, or else the whole contract is guaranteed).

    If Light took the vet minimum as guaranteed salary this year, say $1m, in order to give the lowest possible cap figure this year, that means that $6m was a signing bonus. Adding it up means that the very minimum the cap figure can be this year is $4m (= $1m salary + 50% of $6m signing bonus).

    If you go the other way, and assume the guaranteed money was simply guaranteed 1st year salary, then $7m is the cap figure this year. So the range is $4m - $7m.

    Ultimately, however, there is a minimum of $7m being paid out in cap space for Light at some point, (however you split it between years 1 and 2), as there would be for Lawson and Kaczur (not cutting him this year saves you $1m, but there is still another $1m of bonus left on his salary). So it's not a bad comparison.
     
  11. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    That's just Rob. He doesn't mean anything negative in the least, and is extremely knowledgeable about many things football-related.

    When you think about it, he makes some very good points.

    I think many of us here (and apparently around the NFL) were extremely leery about the possibility of Lawson. That said, I was actually all for it, as I hoped that maybe BB could utilize his skill set, and that he may be able to benefit from a change of scenery.

    Yes, I think it would have been worth it when you consider the low-priced deal that he signed in Cincy for. But it looks like either BB thought otherwise, or he did not realize how cheaply he could be had for. There's also the possibility that we don't need any more LB's if as rumored, we're moving to a higher percentage of 4-3 looks.

    I wouldn't be shocked at all if the only LB that was signed was strictly camp fodder, but with this team you just never know ;)

    As far as your thoughts on spreading the money/cap hits out regarding the OL personnel, I think that Kazcur's turning down a pay-cut/restructuring was pretty much his ticket out of here. He may have provided some worth as a swing tackle, but with Solder, Light, and even LeVoir's worth/value, Kaczur was just too overpriced for such a lessened role (in my opinion).
     
  12. Sean Pa Patriot

    Sean Pa Patriot Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    would like to see now in a dream world.. OSI... give up a one for him... he would be worth it to get another ring....
     
  13. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'd rather keep Light. I know what we have in that devil. I don't know much about Lawson but if he's any good a 1 year deal wouldn't be what he's accepting. Kaczur, well I've made my thoughts know about his ability in the past.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2011
  14. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I don't think that the NYG will ever get a 1st rd pick for a guy who has had serious season ending surgeries in 2 of the past 3 yrs, Sean.

    I think that they will quickly drop their demands.

    It is rumored by some posters that Osi is looking for an enormous payday also, so that may be a deterrent of sorts, to say the least.

    I would think that he has a worth of 7-8 per, but apparently he thinks his worth is 10+ per. I think that there could be better value options for some younger guys.

    There's still the distinct possibility that BB does not think that we need a big-named player, especially one that will demand so much money. I couldn't imagine a player wanting so much money coming here, but that's just my opinion, and many will likely disagree.
     
  15. PushnPencils

    PushnPencils Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    We don't need him...we're all set. Plus those picks have much more value now than Osi.;)
     
  16. Urgent

    Urgent In the Starting Line-Up

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    I am disappointed.
    I think an upgrade to OLB is worth $3mm easily.
    I think Lawson is worth $3mm to this team.

    He has the experience.
    He has much greater coverage ability than any linebacker on this team - as big a problem as pass rush.
    He has more speed than any OLB.
    He has experience setting the edge.

    Many of read this as one more sign the team is moving to a 4-3. You may be right. But one thing the Patriots try to do is enable the flexibility to show different fronts. Lawson offered the flexibility to do that.

    The comparison to Ninkovich is a good one. Lawson is certainly far more athletic, and he's a lot taller. He has more experience in a 3-4. At worst, he is a far more experienced back-up than Markell Carter.

    I recognize that Belichick made a decision not to pursue this path, and that he knows more than we do. I don't agree with every one of his decisions.

    This was probably the cheapest option to upgrade at their position of greatest weakness.
     
  17. PatsBoy12

    PatsBoy12 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I don't know much about this guy. I looked at his numbers and, though I agree they don't always tell the whole story, I wasn't too impressed.
     
  18. scout

    scout Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #15 Jersey

     
  19. Urgent

    Urgent In the Starting Line-Up

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    #24 Jersey

    Who was impressed by Cunningham's numbers?
    Or Ninkovich's?

    Clearly Lawson was not an All Pro.
    After the release of TBC the team is left with Cunningham, Ninkovich, and potentially Markell Carter.
    If Cunningham ever misses a snap this season, someone like Lawson could be very valuable.
    Given the depth on the roster, a Lawson could reasonably compete for a starting spot with Ninkovich.

    There were few folks comparing him to DeMarcus Ware.
    However, the 3-4, should the Patriots use the system that their defense and coaching staff is most experienced in, relies upon depth at OLB. McGinest, Vrabel, and Colvin was when it really thrived here.
    The argument for Lawson, at its simplest, is Cunningham-Ninkovich-Lawson is better than Cunningham-Ninkovich-Carter. Not quite McGinest-Vrabel-Colvin.
     
  20. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I was just responding to your post. I wasn't trying to look down on you.

    No offense, but your understanding of the cap is flawed. The $1 million veteran minimum is for contracts of one year and even then, that is what the teams pay the player while their cap hit is a few hundred thousand less.

    All you have to do is look at Santonio Holmes' contract. He got a 5 year, $50 million contract with $24 million guaranteed last week. His cap hit this season is $2.5 million.

    Most likely Light got a contract that gives him a base salary of $600 or $700k He would have gotten a bonus and or guaranteed salary in 2012 of the $6-7 million. Now the question is whether it was all paid out this season. If it was, his cap number would be about $4 milllion. If it is split in two bonuses over two seasons, his cap could be as low as $2 million since the guaranteed money doesn't count vs. the cap until the money is paid out. Or he could have only gotten a small bonus and salary this year and in 2012 he could have a roster bonus, but his entire 2012 base salary is guaranteed. There are plenty of ways the Pats could have played with the numbers to get his 2011 cap number down possibly lower than what I said in my original post.

    My guess is his cap number is around what Kazcur's cap number was. It could be lower. It may be higher. But my guess is my estimate is on the money.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2011
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