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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Miguel, Feb 21, 2006.

  1. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

  2. Pats726

    Pats726 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Pats seem to be in good shape.....and more of the top teams are more closer or over the cap...VERY good Miguel as always!!! Think how bad it will be for EM or AS.....
     
  3. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    These are of course pre cap cut or restructure figures. We could be in much better shape after factoring those in since we have what should be some relatively easy contract adjustments that can be made via Wllie's and Brady's deals being restructured and some potential deadwood cuts in Poole and Starks and possibly Chad Brown. Those could put us in $10-12M under range albeit with our own potential FA holes to fill at K, WR and DB.

    I don't think the Colts on the other hand have anywhere to go to create space except in prorating one or both of the $9M roster bonuses due Manning and Harrison. That would free up $7-14M for them but at a high price going forward since those deals are heavily backloaded and Manning has another $10M bonus coming next year. They also have a high number of RFA starters to deal with and a $6M tag likely going on Wayne. This time last year they were about $7M under even with the tag on Edge, which is how they ended up adding an expensive run stuffing DL in pre season. And their division rival JAX has some bucks free with which to give them fits. They are a potential landing site for Edge who would like to play in his home state and might relish the opportunity to cause Polian angina.

    The Steelers don't have too many holes but depending on Staley they need a #2 or move the pile RB and if they can't re-sign Randal El a #2 WR/KR, and they have to re-sign S Chiris Hope. Ben's Superbowl performance should ensure they don't have to deal with upgrading him just yet.

    And it may be tough for Miami to snag a dream FA QB like Brees when they may also need a #2 RB in the wake of Ricky's suspension and they've also lost the ability to flip him for draft picks. Not sure why SD is rolling the dice with all the space they've got unless they think they know something the rest of us don't about Brees going forward.

    Buffalo looks to be in good shape...until you remember they have JP and Holcomb duking it out under a new HC. It's nice to see so many NFC teams in the top half of this list and teams like KC and Denver and the JETS pulling up the rear. A new CBA could give them several million more plus the all important increased amortization, but most of those teams are going to be up against it either way. If the JETS end up cutting ties with Chad that will add a few million more to their immediate shortfall, and with Abraham to tag and guys like Mawae balking at restructure and Curtis potentially a cap casualty.....

    I wonder who on this list is going to scrape up money to feed Ty's family, let alone win him another championship, cause it don't look like KC or Miami is in position to.
     
  4. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm very curious to see how they handle this. The Chargers are in a pretty enviable position overall...some of the best young talent in the league, buckets of cap room, and a paradisiacal location for luring players.

    I'd put Jacksonville a close second for recruiting power. Given the large number of Southern boys in the NFL, a friendly, sunny, inexpensive town with a playoff football team and plenty of cap room should attract plenty of interest. (I once visited a guy whose company had transferred him from Chicago to Jacksonville, salary intact. In Chicago, he was routinely upper-middle class. In Jax, he lived like a king.)
     
  5. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We can save 6 mil cutting , Starks, Poole, & C. Brown, unless I'm reading Miguels page wrong. If we can restructure Willie, Rosey, even Corey we should be able to come up with another 4-6 mil possibly. I don't know if Tom, or the team, will want to sign a new deal that gives him more bonus money but bring his cap # down.

    That should put us in decent shape to re-sign Givens and Adam and Neal if they want to sign. Plus go after some other FA.
     
  6. spacecrime

    spacecrime Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Don't forget. Money saved will be how much you avoid paying Starks-Poole-CBrown MINUS how much you have to pay for equivalent replacements.
     
  7. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Equivalent replacements based on last years performance would be draft choices.
     
  8. ilduce06410

    ilduce06410 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    can you tell why?
    any particular error?
    i tend not to trust information just becdause it's printed somewhere.
    who is the authoritative "producer" of salary cap data? in other words, whos figures are accepted as gospel by the league and the nflpa?
     
  9. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm hoping that it is because of Jarvis Green. On 1/22 the Globe had it as 370,000. I have it as $3.7 million. I thought that the Globe had a typo. Now, I am not sure. Of course, it could be that the Patriots did away with some LTBE incentives (Gorin,Hochstein, and Light) without announcing it.

    While I am also wary of accepting salary cap numbers, I have no reason to doubt that ProFootball Weekly's numbers are accurate as they fall in line with other published numbers. The NFLPA numbers are gospel. I and other amateur capologists strive to have our numbers match the NFLPA numbers.
     
  10. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We don't need to do a new deal to lower Tom's cap, just guarantee his $4M salary and pro-rate it. That saves $3M.

    BTW great comeback line on those equivalent replacements. :D
     
  11. ilduce06410

    ilduce06410 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    call him up, man

    i believe $370,000 is below the nfl minimum for a 3-year veteran player. there would have to be a significant 2007 difference between your figures and sportinw news'.
    if sporting news has published figures, and nflpa has not, then sporting news' figures are their own calculations. why would nflpa give its numbers to someone else before publishing themself?
    i'm not a data person, but i frequently work with them. a consideration for you--- the nflpa figures have to come from somewhere. most likely they come from a guy at nflpa offices, who sits in a cubicle all day, reads contracts and tries to extrapolate numbers. i can't be sure if he talks to agents, but he certainly talks to the franchises' capologists regularly.
    i've had great success just caalling these guys and chatting them up. they're just humans. in some times i flew to washington and met with them, and sat in on a meeting or two. try it, man. if you have a degree for this stuff the nflpa's cap guy might consider you a peer.
    in one of my jobs, in municipal government, i found those meetings to be worth about $1m a year because the figures, within the regulations, contained the most accurate possible information about my municipalities.
    if the nflpa numbers are the official figures, work it out with them.
     
  12. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Tantalizing remarks, Duke ... but the part i put in red confuses me. The Washington meeting was with football guys, or government guys? You crashed it, or you belonged there? Worth a million dollars, how? Etc. (You don't need to go into it if you'd prefer not to.)

    In any case, we know that every player contract has to be submitted to both the league and the union ... and "not be disapproved" as to form. Thus each group has the complete contract ... and can spreadsheet its numbers to perfect accuracy.

    The league is the only enforcer of the salary cap. Therefore its capologists necessarily have the final word. But it would be surprising if they didn't have backchannel discussions with their 32 counterparts. The league officially keeps its mouth shut ... while the PA puts up certain compensation info on the web.

    Like you, i'd be interested in knowing the provenance of this assertedly more complete information.
     
  13. ilduce06410

    ilduce06410 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    here goes

    1. the washington meetings were with government guys and consultants to those guys.
    2. i suppose i was entitled to be there. either as a municipal rep or as a citizen. most government meetings are public unless otherwise specified. for the meeting actually to be non-public, the agency has to publish a notice declaring the meeting to be private. the notice must be published 48 hours prior to the date of the meeting. this was a provision of the freedom of information act (FOIA). this probably doesn't apply to dick cheney's meetings.
    most folks who are inclined to crash meetings use this statute.
    3. federal funds that are distributed from feds to states to municipalities are given out using a mathematic formula specified in the authorizing federal statute.
    for example, there's a controversy now over distribution of federal homeland security funds because the money's given out based on a population-based formula. so if there's a population-based formula, worcester mass, pop 150,000 with no homeland security issues, nonetheless gets a hunka money (0.03% of the total, or $300K), while groton, ct, pop 50,000, that houses a submarine base, gets (0.005 of $1 billion, or $50,000).
    of course people with a grain of sense in their heads want to reverse that equation, and to do that the formula has to be changed. the administration doesn't wanna do it. until the congress changes it, latwon, oklahoma will get money that should be going to fort sill, etc.
    more to come
     
  14. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Thanx. I see it now. No need for more.

    I thought you meant it all had some bearing on the NFL salary cap.
     
  15. ilduce06410

    ilduce06410 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    perfect accuracy?

    these contracts are complicated, and they're increasingly incentive-based. as i understand it, incentive payments are not counted against that year's cap, but against the following year's cap.
    so some final figures aren't even known until teams have made payments.
    some contracts aree modified during the season.
    athletes come and go.
    perfect accuracy takes a while to attain. i suspect it's utimately driven by how much money the franchises Actually Pay to a player during a given year, and the cap figures that appeared on paper are just changed to conform.
    i suspect perfect accuracy really isn't ever attained.
    miguel?
     
  16. hwc

    hwc In the Starting Line-Up

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    Yeah. Just common sense seems like $3.7 million is a big number for a backup d-lineman.

    I can't believe how good you are at keeping up with the numbers. It's the hidden stuff that is so tough -- like all the shucking and jiving the Pats have had to do rewriting SuperBowl LTBE into NLTBE bonuses over the last three years. That stuff hardly ever hits the media in any way that is even remotely complete.
     
  17. ilduce06410

    ilduce06410 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    miguel required to continue crunching

    first, miguel, you're not allowed to leave new england. we've locked the doors. nobody gets in nobody gets out. until the nfl goes kaput.
    second, you ain't no effin amateur. something needs to be done about that.
     

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