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Laron Landry worth 2 first rounders?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ChoWZa, Mar 9, 2007.

  1. ChoWZa

    ChoWZa Rookie

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    Sorry if this issue has been discussed... well not really.

    If the Pats are in a position to trade up for this guy would it be worth it?
    He would have to fall out of top 10 atleast I'd say.

    Some scouting info..
    http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/s/laronlandry.html

    Youtube video of Landry hits (its not a slide show its footage)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bip9KlMxd04

    They'd have to forfeit help from 1st round at LB and CB for him...

    I like Laron Landry just wondering what the chances are he ends up in NE.
  2. PatriotsRiot93

    PatriotsRiot93 Rookie

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    2 words...



    HELL YA!!!!:rocker:
  3. arrellbee

    arrellbee Rookie

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    Well, nothing the Pats do surprises me because they use every approach at one time or another - just ours to try to guess (mostly futile) when they will use what approach.

    But when it comes to trading 2 1st round picks for 1, it would have to be somebody REALLY special and an absolute lock as a starter for them to pull the trigger. Is Landry ALL that special and guaranteed to be a starter ? We certainly can't know, but the Belichick/Pioli Patriots have an unblemished record of picking a first rounder who will start.

    In addition to that, you can bet that the Patriots have the likely 1st round board pretty well analyzed. And if they think that two solid starters will be available at 20 and 24, the pure numbers tell you that it isn't a very high payoff to trade 2 for any particular one player. If you get an average of 3 starters out of each draft year (2 of which are gambles at odds from below the 1st round), and you get to keep a drafted starter for an average of 4 + years, that means that you can only fill up something like 12 and at most 15 slots of your starting roster with draft picks. Case in point - at the start of this last season, you probably had 14 starters from the draft (some counting .5 each since they all couldn't start on offense at the same time). That makes a 1st round draft slot (guaranteed starter with Patriots track record) an extremely precious commodity to provide a solid starter.

    As I say, nothing the Patriots do surprises me. But it seems like the odds of trading 2 for 1 are on the very low side. Something with slightly higher odds might be trading 2 number 1s for a slightly higher 1 and a very high 2 - but the draft 'value' charts make this tough except for some unique circumstances or a 3 way deal of some kind.
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2007
  4. Fumblerooski

    Fumblerooski Rookie

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    Pats seem to be swinging for the fences this off season rather than trying to hit singles, so this wouldn't surprise me at all.
  5. Underoath

    Underoath Rookie

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    Well. To be honest, I'd love to have him on the team, IF, we had a second rounder. But we don't, so our next pick would be in the 3rd most likely. I'd rather get a solid ILB, and a solid CB, or maybe Reggie Nelson if he falls.
  6. betterthanthealternative

    betterthanthealternative Rookie

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    Nope, they'll get two year two starters at the bottom of the first round.
  7. TheSeymonsta

    TheSeymonsta Rookie

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    HELL NO!!!!
  8. DB15

    DB15 Rookie

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    no


    the diffrence between two first rounders comepared to him is foolish. Say one of those tw picks are a safety the production diffrence between Nelson and Landry is hardly worth it
  9. satz

    satz Rookie

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    Lets look at this the chance that a 1st rounder is a star is less than 15% in each draft class and getting usuable starter is like 40%.By drafting twice you chances of ending with a star player doubles and you are very close in finding at 2 solid starters.

    NOW ANSWER THIS IS IT WORTH BLOWING UP THIS HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A PLAYER WHO HAS 85% CHANCE OF BEING A BUST .HELL NO.
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2007
  10. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Definitely not. Now, if we were getting a mid #2 back or something like that it's a different question. And probably a different answer. But two #1s straight up ? No thanks.
  11. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    If Patrick Willis is still on the board at 16 I would trade Both first rounders (1,400 points) for the Packers first (16th overall), and their second (48th overall) The Packers two picks are worth 1,420 points.
  12. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Landry is not nearly as highly rated as Sean Taylor was when he came out.

    If you would trade two first round pick for Landry, would you right now trade even up Vince Wilfok and Benjamin Watson for Sean Taylor?

    Would you trade ANY two first round picks of the BB era for Sean Taylor?

    I believe you can imporve the team more by adding two first round quality players than one, except maybe fro a franchise QB.
  13. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    I don't see this at all as swinging for the fences. Adalius Thomas is a big signing, sure, but that wasn't swinging for the fences. that was filling a dire need we all have been talking about for three years.

    Welker/Brady/Morris are hardly anyone's idea of swinging for the fences. I think the Pats are doing what they usually do, except this year they have more money to play with than in prior years.

    We came within a couple minutes of getting to the superbowl last year. I can't wait until next year.
  14. Barnsie

    Barnsie Rookie

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    There is no way that I would trade #24 and #28 to move up to grab a safety in this draft class.

    If we stay right where we are, then we can get a CB, OL, or possibly Patrick Willis at #24 and still end up with a good S at #28 (hopefully Griffin).
  15. RayClay

    RayClay On the Roster

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    #75 Jersey

    Of course it depends on the player. Would they if this guy will set the tone for the revamped defense? Why not?

    What are our other needs? LB? BB doesn't like spending high on LBs, especially inside LBs. He could pick 3 in rounds 3 and 4, I believe.

    I'd prefer a safety and CB high, but I'm not looking at their value board.

    Some people look at the draft like it's some sort of game and would love to have 15 great picks so we could cut 11.

    I don't think that's how the Patriots look at it.
  16. RayClay

    RayClay On the Roster

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    Sean Taylor is also an idiot. I'm sure BB took that into consideration.
  17. 37Harrison

    37Harrison Rookie

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    I would for nothing more than to make sure the Dolphins don't get him and Brady has to see him twice a year. Plus, he would allow for Wilson to return to corner and provide one hell of punishing backfield for the Pats next year. He would replace Rodney when he left (probably after next year) and be the new "assassin" for us. It's touchy because there are other needs for the Pats but the dude is a monster.
  18. TealSox

    TealSox Guest

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    I have to agree. NO!

    A couple years ago, I was so enamored with Sean Taylor that I suggested to fans that they move their first round pick(s) to move up and get him. I can't say that would had been a good deal and I don't think Landry is as good as Taylor.

    Trade a first and a fourth to move up to the 12th spot? What spot are we looking at anyways?
  19. coltsfan

    coltsfan Rookie

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    OK guys, since I live down here in SEC country, I think I can give a better opinion than most. No, he's not worth that. He'll be a 10 year starter in the NFL, but I'm not sure if he'll ever be a probowler. His greatest strength is as a blitzer and the tenacity that he plays with. But he is not special as a pass defender (not saying he's bad), and is a little undisciplined at times. Basically, he's Sean Taylor minus 20 pounds.

    The best safety in the draft is Reggie Nelson. He is Ed Reed minus 10 pounds. The guy has the best instincts that I've seen from a college safety in a long time.

    Ignore the draft hype which is based on where guys were projected going into the year, and how they ran at the combine. Landry will be a good player, but he's getting overhyped for those reasons.
  20. chowder

    chowder Rookie

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    seems like a risk. Remember that Chad Jackson was originally believed to possibly go as high as around number 15. He still has potential to be great, but would you in retrospect have given up 2 first rounders for Chad Jackson? Sure, Landry may turn out to be great and then would be worth the picks, but is it worth the risk? I'll let BB & Pioli decide on that, but I would feel safe if they decided to keep the picks or even trade down or into the next year, etc.

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