Kirwan says Bengals want #3 seed more than the Patriots do

[JMarr]

Er, that has never happened. Come on now.

Are you sure about that Pao? Too lazy to look it up, but I'm pretty sure that San Diego had at least one playoff game blacked out a couple of years ago. If not, it was only lifted only at the last minute, and an embarrassment to the franchise nonetheless.

I'm sure there are plenty of good San Diego fans (like yourself), but the Chargers haven't exactly been known for the strength of their fan base over the years, even when they've been winning. Ask anyone in Oakland, KC or Denver.

 

[pao]

Well, matching up like that is a nice exercise, but it's not how wins and losses are made. The matchups that matter are O v. D on each side, not O v. O and D v. D. San Diego gets much better looking when you match it up that way because, while Brady and the O are better than the S.D. defense, Rivers and the O are better than the N.E. defense, which is why San Diego will be, and should be, favored if the two teams meet in the playoffs.

This is the first time since his foot injury that Gates has really been able to dominate in the passing game, and that puts a huge strain on the Patriots defense, because it means that there will be less help in dealing with those tall receivers that Rivers gets to throw to.

The San Diego running game is struggling, but Sproles is a quick little waterbug that could give the Patriots trouble if New England is focused on the pass or just comes out in the wrong defense.

Rivers is a top 10 quarterback who should be able to remain upright if the Patriots don't blitz, so he'll be able to work on a Patriots secondary that's not as good as the numbers indicate (although Springs getting into the lineup should help the situation from a Patriots perspective).

New England could conceivably enter the playoffs without a victory against a winning team. The Chargers will have no more than 4 losses and would be playing at home. They've earned the right to be favored and should be expected to win, because the Patriots haven't earned that type of respect yet this season.

Ecellent post. Should be a good/great game. Hopefully both teams will be healthy.

 

[pao]

Are you sure about that Pao? Too lazy to look it up, but I'm pretty sure that San Diego had at least one playoff game blacked out a couple of years ago. If not, it was only lifted only at the last minute, and an embarrassment to the franchise nonetheless.

Nope, never happened. Never will. Funny though, don't know why you're so all fired up to see another NFL club suffer "embarrassment". Now that's just not good sportsmanship and, really, irrelevent.

I'm sure there are plenty of good San Diego fans (like yourself), but the Chargers haven't exactly been known for the strength of their fan base over the years, even when they've been winning. Ask anyone in Oakland, KC or Denver.

When the Chargers win, fans are there, despite what people in Oakland, Denver and KC say. If they don't win, eh, not so much. Frankly, JMarr, I don't give a dam. I'm there 1-15 or 14-2.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I want the number three seed for the simple fact that it could possibly lead to the AFCCG being played in Foxboro.

The Patriots could host the AFCCG as the 4 seed if the 6 seed wins out.

 

[furley]

Personally, I would prefer to play the starters as usual and clinch the third seed.

Sometimes, it's better to just play whoever you're going to play rather than try to avoid one team over the other. That's how things tend to back fire on you. You over think the situation. If you're that good of a team, then you want everyone who's in front of you.

 

[Jangles]

Personally, I would prefer to play the starters as usual and clinch the third seed.

Sometimes, it's better to just play whoever you're going to play rather than try to avoid one team over the other. That's how things tend to back fire on you. You over think the situation. If you're that good of a team, then you want everyone who's in front of you.

Good point

however I think most peoples feelings are that they would rather play Indy which means stay the 4 seed rather than avoid the Chargers

 

[JMarr]

Funny though, don't know why you're so all fired up to see another NFL club suffer "embarrassment".

a

Wow, don't take this the wrong way, but you must not have been paying too much attention to the history of the Chargers and Pats over the last four years. Do the words "Classless" or "I think it all starts with their coach" ring any bells for you?

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Really though the only choke job the Chargers have done in the playoffs lately was the '06 playoffs. You might remember it, the Patriots beat them. That, imo, was a huge choke job, not to take anything away from Brady and the Pats. In '07 the Chargers lost in the AFCCG to the Patriots' team playing in the midst of the season of the Century. Pats were favored and rightly so. Losing to the 17-0 Patriots was not a choke. In '08 the Chargers were big underdogs to the Steelers, can't really classify that as a choke. Just as we shouldn't put too much stock in the Patriots road recored this year, I wouldn't put too much stock in the "history" of the Chargers choking in the "big spot". I have to agree with you, can't imagine ANY team wantin to face the Bengals over the Patriots!

Fair enough........... Choke might not be the right word......

Underwhelm..... They seem to always underwhelm in the playoffs. Untill you prove you can get over the hump, that will be the knock on the Chargers until they finally win it all.

 

[Kasmir]

I'll give my largely statistical take on the game. I can comment qualitatively on the Patriots having seen all their games, but I haven't seen any Chargers games this year, so I think a statistical comparison is the only fair one I can do. All analysis based on Football Outsiders stats, which are amongst the best:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Methods To Our Madness

I think if the Pats play SD, it'll most likely be a close game, because the two best passing offenses are playing in the game against two mediocre pass defenses.

Breakdown looks to me like this:
Pats on Offense
Passing: Great Offense vs Mediocre Defense
Rushing: Good Offense vs Bad Defense
SD on Offense:
Passing: Great Offense vs Mediocre Defense
Rushing: Bad Offense vs Good Defense
Special Teams
Good Pats teams vs Mediocre SD teams

I'm using "Great" = top quartile, "Good" = 2nd quartile, "Mediocre" = 3rd quartile, "Bad" = bottom quartile.

Rivers, Jackson, Gates et al are the best pass offense in football this year and will move the ball and score on the Pats mediocre pass defense when they get their chances. But the terrible Chargers running game will not be able to keep the ball away from Brady if the Chargers get a lead. The Pats passing game is nearly as good as the Charger's, and Charger pass defense is equally mediocre, so the Pats will score on the Charger's as well. The Patriots *will* be able to run the ball on the Chargers, which might act to keep the score down as Rivers won't get many chances, particularly if the Patriots get a lead. Both teams have good turnover differentials, but obviously turnover luck could easily decide this game. Assuming no significant turnover edge for either team, it's very unlikely to be a blow out either way. A great Patriots outcome might look something like 28-17, assuming a big time-of-possession advantage to the Pats. A great Chargers victory might look like 35-24. Most likely is a relatively high scoring game decided on the last possession.

Caveats: the Chargers have been playing better lately than the full-season stats would indicate. The FO stats weighted for recent games still have the Pats the the better team, but it's now close, a 14% seasonal advantage reduced to 5% one weighted by recent games. The teams are a good match, especially given the Chargers will have home field, and the Patriots being an unproven road team. The biggest wildcard might be the Patriots defense, which has been the least consistent unit in football (32nd in variance) on a per play basis. Ironically the Patriots offense has been the most consistent per-play offense in football, but the defense is so variable that the Patriots rank 29th overall in variance. The Chargers have been a very consistent team overall (3rd in per-play variance), with the offense great and the defense good. The Pats defense could surprise either way, and will likely be the deciding factor in the game. Belichick will need to re-earn his defensive reputation. I would expect lots of novel scheming, but I'd also expect the Chargers to have figured it out by the 2nd half.

 

[pheenix11]

Pats want #3 so they have a shot at hosting the AFCCG. Duh.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

Wind chill for that game was -59.

"The Chargers awoke on game day to discover 35 mile-per-hour gales. It was a gust you did not want to feel through your hair; the wind chill was minus-59 degrees."

CHAMPIONSHIPS: AMERICAN CONFERENCE - CHAMPIONSHIPS: AMERICAN CONFERENCE; Frozen in Memory: The Defeat in the Ice Bowl - NYTimes.com

Winslow has said he got frostbite on his big toe. He still feels it when it gets cold.

That is pretty cold.

I had to work in them temps more than once. -40 w/out wind.

I seen -75 before. F'ing ridiculous. Your brain freezes. Your vehicle barely turns its wheels.

That game would be crazy bad when playing in uniform.

 

[DisgruntledTunaFan]

I have a feeling the Bengals will be a darkhorse in this year's AFC playoffs.

While Rodney Harrison makes some good points when he called the Bengals frauds(i.e. over their last 6 games, all of their wins have barely come against crummy teams), you can't deny that they are playing pretty hard, good football. They got some bad breaks in San Diego, especially at the end. If they play the Chargers again, the outcome could be different.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

Maybe, but, I like the Pats chances when they're hot when it matters!

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I see the Bengals playing to win on Sunday, even if the Pats have beaten the Texans (which I think they're gonna do). Simple logic. I just don't think it's that easy to turn it off and then on again in seven days against the same team in today's NFL, especially against a team like the Jets that plays a punishing run and Defensive game; and, I think Ray Lewis is smart enough to know that.

 

[pao]

a

Wow, don't take this the wrong way, but you must not have been paying too much attention to the history of the Chargers and Pats over the last four years. Do the words "Classless" or "I think it all starts with their coach" ring any bells for you?

LOL, really? Are you still carrying that torch? That is OLD news. Hell, Hobbs isn't even with the Patriots any more. If it makes you feel any better I didn't think LT should have made those comments. Made himself look the fool and that's too bad because he seems to be a great guy. How about, between us two anyway, we just put that one to bed, eh? Happy New YEAR.

 

[pao]

Personally, I would prefer to play the starters as usual and clinch the third seed.

Sometimes, it's better to just play whoever you're going to play rather than try to avoid one team over the other. That's how things tend to back fire on you. You over think the situation. If you're that good of a team, then you want everyone who's in front of you.

And this, to me and obviously you all would know more about this than me, seems to be the Bill B way of doing things.

 

[pao]

Fair enough........... Choke might not be the right word......

Underwhelm..... They seem to always underwhelm in the playoffs. Untill you prove you can get over the hump, that will be the knock on the Chargers until they finally win it all.

Gotta admit, you're right. Although the Chargers didn't embarass themselves against favored teams in the playoffs these last two years they, indeed, have not gotten over that hump and won a SB. Still, have to say I, as a Chargers fan, was proud of the way the Chargers competed these last two years. I'm not one of those SB or f them fans. There was no embarassment to losing to the 17-0 Patriots (especially with Gates, LT and Rivers hurt) or the eventual SB champs Pittsburgh last season. Still, until the Chargers get to the big dance and win there will be that perception that they can't do it rather than they shouldn't have.

 

[pao]

I'll give my largely statistical take on the game. I can comment qualitatively on the Patriots having seen all their games, but I haven't seen any Chargers games this year, so I think a statistical comparison is the only fair one I can do. All analysis based on Football Outsiders stats, which are amongst the best:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Methods To Our Madness

I think if the Pats play SD, it'll most likely be a close game, because the two best passing offenses are playing in the game against two mediocre pass defenses.

Breakdown looks to me like this:
Pats on Offense
Passing: Great Offense vs Mediocre Defense
Rushing: Good Offense vs Bad Defense
SD on Offense:
Passing: Great Offense vs Mediocre Defense
Rushing: Bad Offense vs Good Defense
Special Teams
Good Pats teams vs Mediocre SD teams

I'm using "Great" = top quartile, "Good" = 2nd quartile, "Mediocre" = 3rd quartile, "Bad" = bottom quartile.

Rivers, Jackson, Gates et al are the best pass offense in football this year and will move the ball and score on the Pats mediocre pass defense when they get their chances. But the terrible Chargers running game will not be able to keep the ball away from Brady if the Chargers get a lead. The Pats passing game is nearly as good as the Charger's, and Charger pass defense is equally mediocre, so the Pats will score on the Charger's as well. The Patriots *will* be able to run the ball on the Chargers, which might act to keep the score down as Rivers won't get many chances, particularly if the Patriots get a lead. Both teams have good turnover differentials, but obviously turnover luck could easily decide this game. Assuming no significant turnover edge for either team, it's very unlikely to be a blow out either way. A great Patriots outcome might look something like 28-17, assuming a big time-of-possession advantage to the Pats. A great Chargers victory might look like 35-24. Most likely is a relatively high scoring game decided on the last possession.

Caveats: the Chargers have been playing better lately than the full-season stats would indicate. The FO stats weighted for recent games still have the Pats the the better team, but it's now close, a 14% seasonal advantage reduced to 5% one weighted by recent games. The teams are a good match, especially given the Chargers will have home field, and the Patriots being an unproven road team. The biggest wildcard might be the Patriots defense, which has been the least consistent unit in football (32nd in variance) on a per play basis. Ironically the Patriots offense has been the most consistent per-play offense in football, but the defense is so variable that the Patriots rank 29th overall in variance. The Chargers have been a very consistent team overall (3rd in per-play variance), with the offense great and the defense good. The Pats defense could surprise either way, and will likely be the deciding factor in the game. Belichick will need to re-earn his defensive reputation. I would expect lots of novel scheming, but I'd also expect the Chargers to have figured it out by the 2nd half.

Excellent post. Hopefully both teams will be healthy and it will be a heck of a game.

 

[DisgruntledTunaFan]

Gotta admit, you're right. Although the Chargers didn't embarass themselves against favored teams in the playoffs these last two years they, indeed, have not gotten over that hump and won a SB. Still, have to say I, as a Chargers fan, was proud of the way the Chargers competed these last two years. I'm not one of those SB or f them fans. There was no embarassment to losing to the 17-0 Patriots (especially with Gates, LT and Rivers hurt) or the eventual SB champs Pittsburgh last season. Still, until the Chargers get to the big dance and win there will be that perception that they can't do it rather than they shouldn't have.

Over on our Cowboys MB, there's still contiuining discussions over whether we should have hired Norv Turner over Wade Phillips, and it got very heated when we played your team a month ago.

Personally - I'm on the fence - I like how Wade turned around our D, but at the same time, our lukewarm Dec runs are more internal than anything else(this Dec, we've seemed to turn things around, but we've nonetheless been nothing more than OK). Norv has done an outstanding job with the Chargers, always finishing strong, and have yet to lose a Dec game under him, and are 3-2 in the playoffs(compared to Wade's 0-1 playoff record here). But like said, our weak finishes are more rooted internally than anything else, regardless of the coach. Even "Mr. December" Parcells couldn't do much.

 

[pao]

I have a feeling the Bengals will be a darkhorse in this year's AFC playoffs.

While Rodney Harrison makes some good points when he called the Bengals frauds(i.e. over their last 6 games, all of their wins have barely come against crummy teams), you can't deny that they are playing pretty hard, good football. They got some bad breaks in San Diego, especially at the end. If they play the Chargers again, the outcome could be different.

I'm not sure what bad breaks you are talking about at the end of the Chargers game but, really, the Bengals were fortunate to be in that game. The Chargers were ahead in that game by 11 and had the ball early in the 4th Qtr. Rivers threw a pass to Gates that went through his hands (a relatively easy catch) and into the chest of a Bengals LB. Bengals ball 33 yard line. Without that flukey play the Charges put them away, I believe. Who knows, and I could be wrong, but the Bengals were not impressive that day. It WAS only 3 or 4 days after Chris Henry died though, so they may not have been "into" the game.