Kiper's new mock has us taking...

[ilduce06410]

bing's supposed to be hurt a lot

Is Maroney that good that they'd pass on a good DB like a Bing who Banks has them picking but Kiper doesn't even have going in the 1st round?

i'd be ok if he was taken but that injury history, especially shoulders, is not promising.
maroney or greenway look Just Fine to me. IMO greenway seems to the more highly regarded, and seems to have great attributes for his position. one thing about each of these three: they don't seem to have the classic BB/SP adjectives. you know, "smart, leader (team captain), a little mean, plays with pain". every one of our draftees the past 2 years has had those words in their scouting report. obviously Beth-el Johnson did not. still mystifies me that a Texas A&M player would have his work ethic. i'm surpised he wasn't run off after his freshman year.

 

[Michigan Dave]

I don't know. Instead of trading up for LenDale, I could see a trade up for Jimmy Williams.

 

[dryheat44]

I don't know. Instead of trading up for LenDale, I could see a trade up for Jimmy Williams.

I will be extremely disappointed if we draft Jimmy Williams in the first round. Absolutely pissed if we actually trade up to get him. Great athlete, but I don't see any way he's a CB in the NFL. I think his upside is probably Eugene Wilson, and we've already got one.

 

[Michigan Dave]

I will be extremely disappointed if we draft Jimmy Williams in the first round. Absolutely pissed if we actually trade up to get him. Great athlete, but I don't see any way he's a CB in the NFL. I think his upside is probably Eugene Wilson, and we've already got one.

You think? I've been enamored with Williams for a while now. I guess it would depend on the offseason plan for the DB positions that the staff has in place. As someone who's seen Maroney play for a few years, I'm not all that sold on him, though he shows flashes of brilliance. I'd take a chance on Williams before Maroney.

 

[drew4008]

I'll pass on Williams. If we trade up for a DB, which I don't think we will or don't even think we should, then it would have to be Huff, or a few spots to get a shutdown corner like Hill. Why in the hell did I hear someone say draft Pope?! We struggle to get 2 TEs on the field, how are we going to get 3?! Graham will stick around, and we're set for the future.

 

[mgteich]

Choosing a running back late may be not be a "bad" strategy, it surely hasn't been effective for the patriots. Our last two starting running backs have been via trade, as well as our last blocking fullback or two. Last year our prospects were so bad that they were ALL cut.

Personally, I think the issue with running backs in this draft is that they ar too small for what Belichick wants, unless he is a returner. We need two additions, a blocker or returner and a backup to Dillon. Bottom line, I don't know if any of the running backs are on the patriots' board. But I would have no problem at all with a first round running back.

I think Kiper is wrong because I don't think BB would draft an RB that high in the draft--even if we need a good one. He's been quite content to draft RBs in later rounds, with the hopes of finding a winner. It's not a bad strategy, really, as many good RBs have come in the later rounds and many of the highly touted ones haven't panned out.

Besides, it would be better to spend that choice on a OL road-grader, who would improve the lives and performances of Dillion, Brady and Watson.

 

[spacecrime]

I think Kiper is wrong because I don't think BB would draft an RB that high in the draft--even if we need a good one. He's been quite content to draft RBs in later rounds, with the hopes of finding a winner. It's not a bad strategy, really, as many good RBs have come in the later rounds and many of the highly touted ones haven't panned out.

I agree with you, but last year my faith in this method was shaken when Mankins was drafted. Up until then, BB drafted guards even lower than RBs. Next thng he'll be drafting a LB on the first day.

 

[dryheat44]

I'll pass on Williams. If we trade up for a DB, which I don't think we will or don't even think we should, then it would have to be Huff, or a few spots to get a shutdown corner like Hill. Why in the hell did I hear someone say draft Pope?! We struggle to get 2 TEs on the field, how are we going to get 3?! Graham will stick around, and we're set for the future.

We shouldn't draft Pope, but I'd love to see it anyway. I don't think he can be covered.

Why would Graham stick around? He's got one chance at big money, and next year is it. Belichick values him as a blocker, but somebody's going to offer him more than Belichick will as a number 2, or at best 1B, Tight End.

 

[mgteich]

Your faith was shaken because you looked at the mocks and analyses that listed Mankins as a guard. IMHO, Mankins wouldn't have been drafted if he didn't have LT skills (ditto for the other GUARD Kaczur).

The open question is whether Belichick would draft a roadgrader in the first round; that is, a player who can only play RG or RT.

The bottom line is that the 2006/2007/2008 running game needs two running backs (one could be a fullback) and a RG/RT's, and probably a C.

I agree with you, but last year my faith in this method was shaken when Mankins was drafted. Up until then, BB drafted guards even lower than RBs. Next thng he'll be drafting a LB on the first day.

 

[mgcolby]

How do you know who is going in the first round? Do you have a crystal ball? All I know is Kiper has a whole staff who works for him talking to NFL GM's and breaking down film so I will listen to him before I do somebody on patsfans.com. Also, if you followed The Senior Bowl at all and listened to the buzz coming out of Mobile, no one would be surprised to see Moss going in round one. As a matter of fact, I think after his performance during Senior Bowl week, it's pretty likely. Of course, Kiper doesn't know anything. Everyone is just jealous because he gets paid a lot of money to do what we all wish we could do so we say he doesn't know anything. My money says he knows a lot more than you do.

Mel is that you??

Seriously his predictions are usually the worst out of all of the mainstream guys. After the top 10 his picks are worthless, remember last year when we picked Mankins he called it a reach and that Mankins would go no higher then the late second round. Well then after the draft we found out that San Francisco and Tenn. were both going to take him if he was available. That is just one example that I can think of off the top of my head. The guy is a tool!

 

[mgcolby]

The fact that Mel Kiper has an army that goes out and talks to NFL GM's doesn't mean anything to me.

If I were a GM, I'd follow the Sun Tzu School of War, and not reveal anything to media people about my intentions.

I would talk up players I had no interest in, pretend not to know anything about the players I really wanted, and in general be extremely vague and general about the whole thing.

Wouldn't be surprised if most GM's did this.
.

BB is that you?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Again, I'm not a fan, but I think the Huddle Report's rundown proves that Kiper isn't 'rarely' right at all, at least when it comes to predicting a given draft's top 100 players, or in mock drafting. Click the link.

It would appear the average draft gurus are right on the top 100 70% of the time. Probably not that hard to do given there are only about 250 players in the draft to begin with and the first two rounds (64) are basically concensus top 100 draftees. It's also usually a near concensus as to who will go in the top 10, and who will go to whom in the top 5 pending trades.

Now if Mel was predicting who goes where in the top 100 with 78% accuracy I'd be somewhat impressed. But he doesn't. His method like most is part what I think and part what I hear. And half of what he hears is BS from GM's who prefer to use him to set smoke screens. The remainder is pandering to him to curry favor for a pick or BB's laudable approach which is to ignore him and all like him. We do our own scouting and as a result our board seldom resembles the masses. I'll never forget the look on Mel's face when we selected Mankins at #32 last year - he looked like he swallowed his tongue.

As for Maroney, while all project him as a first rounder some offer cautions that I think would make him a real stretch for BB if he were to take a RB in the 1st round, which I doubt he will. NFL Draft Countdown (who grades out just behind Mel) offers this assessment which would probably cause even more concern for a team with questionable run blocking who also requires a RB with good receiving skills coming out of the backfield:

"Strengths:
A big play threat who can take it the distance from any point on the field...Has been extremely productive at the college level...Patient runner with excellent vision and instincts...Does a good job of following his blockers...Explosive with a strong lower body and the ability to break tackles...Has an extra gear and is much faster than his forty time would lead you to believe...Can also return kicks.

Weaknesses:
Doesn't have the size you would like to see in a feature back...Hands are questionable at best and he was not used much as a receiver in college...Isn't a physical runner and prefers to shy away from contact...Plays in a system that is conducive to running backs producing big numbers...Didn't carry the load until the '05 season after splitting time with Marion Barber III...Hails from a program known for great college runners who failed to make much of an impact in the pros.

Notes:
A prolific college running back who might not be quite the pro prospect his press clippings would lead you to believe...There is a lot to like about this guy, but when you factor in his size, receiving abilities and the system he plays in there are certainly some things that concern you as well...Let the buyer beware. "

 

[bunzoburns]

First Round

Sorry folks, that pick has Defense all over it. Perhaps O line.... 99% it wont be a skilled offensive player.

 

[dryheat44]

Personally, I think the issue with running backs in this draft is that they ar too small for what Belichick wants, unless he is a returner. We need two additions, a blocker or returner and a backup to Dillon. Bottom line, I don't know if any of the running backs are on the patriots' board. But I would have no problem at all with a first round running back.

I think the problem, as BB sees it, is that first round RBs are not a good value for their contract. First round money and a multi-year deal, and they could bust out of the league, through injury or suckatude, before their contract's half over. So you have guys like LT or Edge taken in the first round, but also Blair Thomas and Curtis Enis and Ki-Jana Carter. (Weren't those all PSU guys?) And you look at some of the RBs that have had great careers in Curtis Martin, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, Corey Dillon, that weren't taken in the first round.

I think due to the nature of the position, we won't see BB draft a RB in the first round. He seems to be more apt to go with a free agent that has proven himself and then spend a lower round draft pick on a RB.

First round busts are killers to a franchise, and QBs and RBs bust more than any other position. Linemen and defensive players are much more likely to play through their rookie contract.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I think you've hit the nail on the head. QBs and RBs bust out of the first round more than any other position.

BB knows that incremental improvements add up. he takes the most likely improvements he can and over time he has created a very deep and very good team.

His QBs and RBs are not first round picks. In fact all his RBs are NFL proven vets, or unproven guys from lower rounds. Same for QBs. in addition to the homerun of a Brady, all the others he inherited (Bledsoe, Huard), drafted failures (Kingsberry and Davey) vet FA failures (Miller, Redman)and incompletes but possibles like Cassel.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think that if the right RB was avialable at #21, BB would take him in a heartbeat, however I don't see that type RB in this draft. Neither White, Williams or Maroney really excite me. The only big back in this draft that might fit the Pats scheme is Bell, and he could be had on day two.

As I've written before, Kiper can rate talent, but he can not project that talent into a team's specific schemes. He just doesn't know the game well enough from the inside out.

It's interesting that CB/FS Williams of VT has slid in Kiper's latest draft. I wonder if he's hearing things from the NFL peeps he has contact with.

 

[dryheat44]

It's interesting that CB/FS Williams of VT has slid in Kiper's latest draft. I wonder if he's hearing things from the NFL peeps he has contact with.

I just don't think there's a strong demand for ball-hawking safeties.

 

[drew4008]

I just don't think there's a strong demand for ball-hawking safeties.

Overall, safeties don't go that high, and people are questioning his ability to play corner in the pros (which is why he'd get drafted high and paid lots of money).

 

[ilduce06410]

strong in some places, thin in others

I think you've hit the nail on the head. QBs and RBs bust out of the first round more than any other position.
BB knows that incremental improvements add up. he takes the most likely improvements he can and over time he has created a very deep and very good team.
His QBs and RBs are not first round picks. In fact all his RBs are NFL proven vets, or unproven guys from lower rounds. Same for QBs. in addition to the homerun of a Brady, all the others he inherited (Bledsoe, Huard), drafted failures (Kingsberry and Davey) vet FA failures (Miller, Redman)and incompletes but possibles like Cassel.

i suspect patriots will have little interest in a high-round QB for the next few years. as you say, the 10th-rated RB is just as likely to be succesful as the mind-boggling #1 guy. what I hear here is not about 1st round picks. it's about investing a high-round pick into a RB, snap up the #5 - #6 rated guy with a pick around player #60. kind of an "heir apparent" type like lamont jordan was.
this team also needs impact-type OLs, LBs, and safeties. IMO we've now have decent CBs: Gay, Samuel,and Hobbs. we have excellent depth. now we need STARS like seymour, hobbs, rodney, the twig. some of our other 1st- and 2nd round picks have included daniel graham, deion branch, beth-el johnson, ty warren, eugene wilson, ben watson, and marquise hill. of those, perhaps watson, branch, and grahaam are eye-popping players.
as a starting RB, BB/SP could just stick with the proven vet formula. history shows it works for both vet & team. it may be an old parcells/marchibroda/lombardi bias. each of those coaches HATED having rookie ballhandlers because of the potential for spectacular mistakes. but there are several spots where a star can make the "3" players more effective. BB/SP maybe shouldn't have given Corey a 2-year extension, but remember nfl contracts can be nullifiied by just cutting the player.

 

[rookBoston]

Sorry folks, that pick has Defense all over it. Perhaps O line.... 99% it wont be a skilled offensive player.

I'm with bunz. What makes anyone think that RB is a target for the Pats? Because Kiper said so? Puh-lease.

1) Other than 2004, the running game has never been a point of emphasis for the Pats.
2) We still have Corey Dillon under contract, and he's not half bad.
3) We have exactly two WRs under contract for next year (Branch and Bethel)
4) We still haven't adequately replaced TJ and Phifer... and it shows.
5) Our secondary hasn't been stable for two straight years.
6) BB is always going to build his team to play defense, first and foremost, and feed a complementary offense.

Moroney is a luxury pick, and even if it feels sexy there are about ten guys who I'd take ahead of him.