Keys to Pats vs Jags

[Ring 6]

The Jags were 12-4, going 9-1 against teams with 6-10 or worse records. Going 3-3 vs teams with winning records (all 11-5 or better).

When you look at the Jville team, there isnt anything they d extremely well or extremely poorly. You could single out, statistically pass D as a strength, but the fact that the numbers were built playing Houston tiwce, SF, Cleveland, Tenn twice, Bmore, etc kind of taints the numbers.

If the Patriot D manhandles the run like it has over the last one month + the Jags will have a very long day on offense. There will be a ton of pass rush pressure if that happens.

Defensively the Jags are good, not great vs both the run and pass.

Their 12-4 record can be trashed for playing so many poor teams, but looking inside the numbers tells a better story.
They are +11 in turnover ratio.

Quite simply, the Jags have won a lot of close games, being very average on offense, pretty good on defense, but winning the turnover battle.

They will have to protect the ball and take it away from the Pats to beat a Belichick team with more talent in Foxboro.

My instinct of the game is that both teams will slug it out on the ground with not a ton of success. Brady will find plays, and get points on the board, and the Pat D will will control the game with pressure in pass defense.

Seems like about a 23-10 game to me.

Then of course, as is BBs trend, we vault that game plan and come up with an entirely different one for the Colts or Broncos.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

I sense that a lot of people are nervous about the Jags because of a surprisingly good record and some recent write ups about how tough they are on defense. There have been playoff games that I knew without a second thought that the Pats were going to win and there have been games where I found myself sweating bullets all week before the game and by kick-off I'm practically puking.

We have faced defenses that literally could not wait to rip our faces off and had a reputation to do that (Pittsburgh, every year) and this Jags D is not nearly as good as Pitt.

I'm not saying that Brady is going to have a field day but he is going to find that he can move the ball.

This might end up being a close game. The Jags are scrappy and I hate being overconfident but they are walking into the lions den and they just don't see it yet.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Good stuff AJ/FPF!

My number one concern going into this starts with our O-line, Neal is our most experienced starter and he's essentially a sophmore. It will be up to Neal, Hochstein, and Mankins to control the DTs and get someone through to block the MLB. I expect Gorin to start at RT, hopefully he plays well and doesn't slack off the way he did against the Jets. Kaczur doesn't worry me, he's had a short rest for his shoulder, and hopefully has passed any 'rookie wall'. Ashworth is our ace in the hole, he's an asset at FB, TE, and swing tackle - we lose nothing when he comes in the game. If Gorin plays his best I have no concern for the DEs.

My second concern is the TEs, Graham's shoulder has severely limited his blocking strength. For the second half of the season I'd rate him second to Fauria when ranking our TE's blocking. Our run game will greatly benefit if Graham can 'bring the lumber' as the best blocker (lineman or TE) we have. It wouldn't surprise me to see Ashworth at TE in multiple TE sets, I can see him as a surprise receiver, but his mobility and blocking skills would be very useful in 'wham' blocking the DTs.

The third concern is Special Teams, more specifically the coverage units. They will be the ones controlling field position for Garrad (sp?) and Leftwich. I have great faith in our front seven when they have a long field to work with. It will also limit the 'jump ball' threat from the Jags 'small forwards'.

I anticipate a game similar to our first Jets game (we saw something similar with the Bills too), a ball control, grind it out low scoring effort while BB feels them out. They will need to score 20+ points to have a shot and a run game slug fest will not achieve that for them. I stated my belief since mid-season that the Patriots will advance to the divisional round, the Jags will need several lucky bounces to prevent this from happening.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Thanks for three excellent posts.

With Tedy -- I'm confident. Without Tedy -- I'm worried. My 2 pence.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

"With Tedy -- I'm confident. Without Tedy -- I'm worried. My 2 pence."

Let not your heart be troubled, even with Monty filling in for Tedy this game is a win. That said, Tedy will play....segue into the Monty Python classic...Always look on the bright side of life..whistling..

 

[Willie55]

Take control of the scoreboard inthe first quarter, plain and simple. Not with conservative offense..... exploit them early....

If they do that, Jags wil lnot recover.

Sound simple? It is.

With slants?

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

I'm not overly worried about the Jags.

If we hang onto the ball this game is a relatively easy win for the Pats.

Biggest key for the Pats on defense is to stop the Jags running game forcing whoever is QBing to beat them. Says here that neither Leftwich nor Garrard can do so.

Biggest key for the Pats on offense is to take advantage of the Jags injuries to Peterson, Hayward and Spicer and focus on the matchup advantages they enjoy against their replacements.

I'm going with a score of Pats 27 Jags 13.

 

[T-ShirtDynasty]

With slants?

And the No-Huddle. :cool2:

 

[oldrover]

The Jags were 12-4, going 9-1 against teams with 6-10 or worse records. Going 3-3 vs teams with winning records (all 11-5 or better).

OK... well, the Pats were 10-6... 7-0 versus teams with losing records, and 3-6 against teams with winning records. Don't kid yourself... this will be a tough game.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

I sense that a lot of people are nervous about the Jags because of a surprisingly good record and some recent write ups about how tough they are on defense. There have been playoff games that I knew without a second thought that the Pats were going to win and there have been games where I found myself sweating bullets all week before the game and by kick-off I'm practically puking.

.

Which games were those (no sweat, no puking)?

2001 team
AFC Divisional Playoff: won 16 - 13 vs. Oakland Raiders
AFC Championship Game: won 24 - 17 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl: won 20 - 17 at St. Louis Rams

2003 team
AFC Divisional Playoff: won 17 - 14 vs. Tennessee Titans
AFC Championship Game: won 24 - 14 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Super Bowl: won 32 - 29 vs. Carolina Panthers

2004 team
AFC Divisional Playoff: won 20 - 3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
AFC Championship Game: won 41 - 27 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl: won 24 - 21 at Philadelphia Eagles

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

Which games were those (no sweat, no puking)?

2001 team
AFC Divisional Playoff: won 16 - 13 vs. Oakland Raiders
AFC Championship Game: won 24 - 17 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl: won 20 - 17 at St. Louis Rams

2003 team
AFC Divisional Playoff: won 17 - 14 vs. Tennessee Titans
AFC Championship Game: won 24 - 14 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Super Bowl: won 32 - 29 vs. Carolina Panthers

2004 team
AFC Divisional Playoff: won 20 - 3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
AFC Championship Game: won 41 - 27 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl: won 24 - 21 at Philadelphia Eagles

I was nervous as hell before the Pitt game in 2001. I work with several Steelers fans and they hounded me all week. Indy in 2003 and 2004 made me sweat bullets. Steelers always give me nausea because they are so physical....But I swear this is the truth. I hate gambling away hard earned money and bet more money on the Superbowls than all other bets ever. Won a pile of cash. My wife nearly had a nervous breakdown when she heard how much I was betting but all turned out well in the end. I'm up a couple of grand.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

I was nervous as hell before the Pitt game in 2001. I work with several Steelers fans and they hounded me all week. Indy in 2003 and 2004 made me sweat bullets. Steelers always give me nausea because they are so physical....But I swear this is the truth. I hate gambling away hard earned money and bet more money on the Superbowls than all other bets ever. Won a pile of cash. My wife nearly had a nervous breakdown when she heard how much I was betting but all turned out well in the end. I'm up a couple of grand.

Sounds like you're saying the Super Bowl games looked like the easiest going in (except the Rams one of course). All of the Pats playoff games in all three years of this run, to me, have looked tough going in. This one with Jax, because of the up and down nature of the Pats season, looks tough. I don't believe the 7.5 - 8.5 point spread.

 

[PatsFan37]

Good stuff AJ/FPF!

My number one concern going into this starts with our O-line, Neal is our most experienced starter and he's essentially a sophmore. It will be up to Neal, Hochstein, and Mankins to control the DTs and get someone through to block the MLB. I expect Gorin to start at RT, hopefully he plays well and doesn't slack off the way he did against the Jets. Kaczur doesn't worry me, he's had a short rest for his shoulder, and hopefully has passed any 'rookie wall'. Ashworth is our ace in the hole, he's an asset at FB, TE, and swing tackle - we lose nothing when he comes in the game. If Gorin plays his best I have no concern for the DEs.

My second concern is the TEs, Graham's shoulder has severely limited his blocking strength. For the second half of the season I'd rate him second to Fauria when ranking our TE's blocking. Our run game will greatly benefit if Graham can 'bring the lumber' as the best blocker (lineman or TE) we have. It wouldn't surprise me to see Ashworth at TE in multiple TE sets, I can see him as a surprise receiver, but his mobility and blocking skills would be very useful in 'wham' blocking the DTs.

Nice post, as usual. Since the Jags are so strong up front, I expect Graham to take another week off and BB will use the bigger Ashworth as a blocking TE, with Watson as the blocking/receiving TE. The Pats small, shifty receivers should do well against the Jags secondary, reducing the need for receiving TE's.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Always look on the bright side of life..whistling..

That's me -- cheerful martyrdom! ("Still have I borne it with a patient shrug. For sufferance is the badge of all our tribe." Merchant of Venice)

I too think that we will win without Tedy, but the difference in the Jets game before and after his injury is quite striking.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

Sounds like you're saying the Super Bowl games looked like the easiest going in (except the Rams one of course). All of the Pats playoff games in all three years of this run, to me, have looked tough going in. This one with Jax, because of the up and down nature of the Pats season, looks tough. I don't believe the 7.5 - 8.5 point spread.

I bet there are a lot of other people out there who probably felt the same way I did for the SB's....once the Pats made it to the big game, I KNEW they were going to win...Not sure why I was so confident but I was absolutely sure of it....I wouldn't have bet on them otherwise.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Don't kid yourself... this will be a tough game.[/QUOTE]:agree: