Key to Colts/Pats....

[lobills]

It all comes down to Dallas Clark and Wes Welker IMO. Whichever team does a better job containing these two will probably win. Everybody else Brady, Manning, Wayne/Harrison, Moss will do their thing, but I really believe these 2 guys are what makes each of their respective offenses go. You guys added Thomas, but he can't cover Clark and you're not going to take Asante or Hobbs off our WR's. Not sure what you're going to do about this matchup. Likewise, Welker is going to get a ton of quick hit looks and shorter checkdown type passes as we will not allow the deep ball to Moss. Should be interesting. I say it's a shootout 41-34 Colts.

 

[Michigan Dave]

It all comes down to Dallas Clark and Wes Welker IMO. Whichever team does a better job containing these two will probably win. Everybody else Brady, Manning, Wayne/Harrison, Moss will do their thing, but I really believe these 2 guys are what makes each of their respective offenses go. You guys added Thomas, but he can't cover Clark and you're not going to take Asante or Hobbs off our WR's. Not sure what you're going to do about this matchup. Likewise, Welker is going to get a ton of quick hit looks and shorter checkdown type passes as we will not allow the deep ball to Moss. Should be interesting. I say it's a shootout 41-34 Colts.

Thomas won't cover Clark down the field, but he sure can make life miserable for him off the line and inside of 5 yards.

 

[JR4]

It all comes down to Dallas Clark and Wes Welker IMO. Whichever team does a better job containing these two will probably win. Everybody else Brady, Manning, Wayne/Harrison, Moss will do their thing, but I really believe these 2 guys are what makes each of their respective offenses go. You guys added Thomas, but he can't cover Clark and you're not going to take Asante or Hobbs off our WR's. Not sure what you're going to do about this matchup. Likewise, Welker is going to get a ton of quick hit looks and shorter checkdown type passes as we will not allow the deep ball to Moss. Should be interesting. I say it's a shootout 41-34 Colts.

Clark will NOT have the game he had in AFC championship.
Reasons: Harrison and AD

PATs know the Colts and have a defense that will make it very tough for PM.
Colts do NOT know this version of PATS offense. They'll see it on film but
until they experience it they won't know it.
The only chance the Colts have is getting to Brady with the Dline alone.
If they try using Sanders ... they're toast.

Bottom line:
Colts D is not good enough to slow down the PATs Offense enough.
PATs D will have PM pulling his chin straps in disgust.

 

[Jr.]

The Colts D def can not touch the Pats Off, however I think Pats D can contain Colts Off.

Pats Win in a blowout

 

[lobills]

Michigan Dave------Who then covers Clark? I doubt Clark has as big a game as last year's AFCCG, but still he's a big time matchup problem. Harrison doesn't have the speed/coverage skills to guard him in space. Not sure who your nickel back is, maybe him. Also, I agree it's going to be tough to stop the Pats' offense, but I think if the Colts can limit them to some FG attempts in the red zone, granted something not a lot of your opponents have been able to do, I think we'll have enough offense to get the W. I just think it'll be interesting to see how both defenses try to contain/limit Welker and Clark.

 

[satz]

Michigan Dave------Who then covers Clark? I doubt Clark has as big a game as last year's AFCCG, but still he's a big time matchup problem. Harrison doesn't have the speed/coverage skills to guard him in space. Not sure who your nickel back is, maybe him. Also, I agree it's going to be tough to stop the Pats' offense, but I think if the Colts can limit them to some FG attempts in the red zone, granted something not a lot of your opponents have been able to do, I think we'll have enough offense to get the W. I just think it'll be interesting to see how both defenses try to contain/limit Welker and Clark.

I think using the AFCCG as a barometer is wrong due to personal. AD duty will be to cover Addai/Keith we did not have a faster LB then . Clark was covered by baker+3rd stringer in the game as the starters and backups were down.

Clark will covered by randal gay remember the guy who started his rookie season in the 03 SB team and brandon meariweather 07 first rd .they come in nickel package and will rotate with harrison covering clark at the Line.

The key is AD/Harrison in the shallow and nickel package in the deep route...the middle will be gaurded .if moorhead plays i can see him single with asante and moving the safety deeper rotated towards the wayne side. THis means more blitz packages.

 

[SVN]

The Colts D def can not touch the Pats Off, however I think Pats D can contain Colts Off.

/QUOTE]

iam not so confident about that. We havent stopped them in last 3 games.Sure its a different team but that applies to their defense also . Pats have to win in a shootout IMO

 

[lobills]

I like the Colts chances if they use a rookie Safety to cover up Clark. Randall Gay...doesn't really strike fear in me. Moorehead isn't going to see the light of day. Gonzalez has been used sparingly up to this point. I could see him getting some looks. Especially quick hitting slants out of the slot. The middle of the field is where the Colts will look to exploit the Pats in the passing game. Especially in the middle to deep third. I just think that's where you're weakness lies defensively.

 

[SVN]

I like the Colts chances if they use a rookie Safety to cover up Clark. Randall Gay...doesn't really strike fear in me. Moorehead isn't going to see the light of day. Gonzalez has been used sparingly up to this point. I could see him getting some looks. Especially quick hitting slants out of the slot. The middle of the field is where the Colts will look to exploit the Pats in the passing game. Especially in the middle to deep third. I just think that's where you're weakness lies defensively.

i think they will put sanders or wilson on clark. Iam sure the colts will target hobbs more.Even the skins went after him yesterday. in the AFCCG the pats put samuel on harrison , would be interesting to see if they switch him on wayne.

 

[Satchboogie3]

It will come down to, um wait, nothing. Pats will win. Colts can't beat us.

 

[JR4]

The Colts D def can not touch the Pats Off, however I think Pats D can contain Colts Off.

/QUOTE]

iam not so confident about that. We havent stopped them in last 3 games.Sure its a different team but that applies to their defense also . Pats have to win in a shootout IMO

Remember the first half of the AFCCG ......?
This year we got front 7 QUALITY depth to sustain it for 60 minutes. IMO.

 

[SVN]

Remember the first half of the AFCCG ......?
This year we got front 7 QUALITY depth to sustain it for 60 minutes. IMO.

that could be true. On the other hand the colts couldve also played poorly in the first half. Even before that meeting we have gotten beat at home and not been able to stop them .The pressure is really on our offense to keep scoring like in the past weeks.

 

[JR4]

that could be true. On the other hand the colts couldve also played poorly in the first half. Even before that meeting we have gotten beat at home and not been able to stop them .The pressure is really on our offense to keep scoring like in the past weeks.

Of course PATs offense will need to play their A game.
I don't mean to imply PATs D will shut down Colts O.
Maybe the word contain is too strong ... its more like slow down.

 

[lobills]

Front 7 depth does help, but the Colts struggle most often when a team can effectively pressure Manning with ONLY their front 4. See, Jax teams, historically, and most recently the 1st half of the Carolina game. Seymour and Colvin are the only guys I think can put pressure on Manning from your primary pass rushers. Without the addition of extra blitzers.

 

[cstjohn17]

It all comes down to Dallas Clark and Wes Welker IMO. Whichever team does a better job containing these two will probably win. Everybody else Brady, Manning, Wayne/Harrison, Moss will do their thing, but I really believe these 2 guys are what makes each of their respective offenses go. You guys added Thomas, but he can't cover Clark and you're not going to take Asante or Hobbs off our WR's. Not sure what you're going to do about this matchup. Likewise, Welker is going to get a ton of quick hit looks and shorter checkdown type passes as we will not allow the deep ball to Moss. Should be interesting. I say it's a shootout 41-34 Colts.

It may not be as high scoring as people think and it should be very close until the final possession. The reason I don't see a 50-49 game is that both teams will take away the deep play and force the opponent into long sustained drives. I am thinking 34-27 or something like that, with a lot of points in the 4th quarter.

I think it will come down to which team can do the following:
1) stop the run with their front seven
- if the Pats can force Sanders into they can put a lot of pressure on the deep part of the secondary
- vice-versa if the Pats can contain the run with the front seven it gives them additional options in coverage
2) Have an ounce of energy left on defense in the 4th
- both defenses are going to be exhausted, without a pass rush these QBs will be lethal

Indy is Indy, they are so good at executing on both sides of the ball I really don't expect to see anything different with their formations. I am very interested to see how the Patriots attack the Cover 2 defense.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

First off, is Ugoh playing? That could be a key.

We'll get the usual game from Seymour, but I think Colvin will play a bit more of this game in coverage.

Given the trend this season has offered, I think the best bet for the Colts is to score quickly on their earliest possessions, because once the game gets going, and this Pats' offense finds it's rhythm, it's going to be difficult for the Colts' D to keep up with them.

There'll be a lot, and I mean a lot, of film work going on this week with both teams. When Sunday rolls around, don't be too surprised if both coaching staffs look a bit tired.

All other things being equal, I think you'll see Samuel on Wayne. I'm not too sure about everyone's concern about AD not being able to cover Clark. Games like this is one of the primary reasons we signed the guy. We've seen him outrun WRs, so as gifted as Clark is, I think AD will do a competent job with the man. Of course, on deeper routes, he'll get help. I have confidence in this match up.

Addai's contribution will be of critical importance. They won't be running much Seymour's way, so it befalls Warren and Wilfork to step up in this area.

The Colts are right up there in the stratosphere with the Pats, but I like our chances in this game. I mean, I really like our chances!!!

Thank God I've stocked up on Warsteiner for this game!!!! (Dunkel, of course!)

 

[Buchanty]

It will depend on which team maintains its rhythm. If both play the way they can this should be a fantastic game that goes down to the last minute.

Both defenses are capable of breaking the opposing teams rhythm, but I dont think either one can dominate for 60 minutes - though I would have to favor the larger unit, that is the Pats.

Key aspects will be:

whether OL can keep Freeney and Mathis from TB - I felt safe with Kyle Brady in there blocking so I am keeping a close eye on his supposed injury (didnt play 2nd half). Matt Light needs him.

whether Ugoh can protect Manning's blind side (again injury watch on him as his replacement is poor).

how durable Sanders is. He is the key to the Colt's secondary and will have a busy day rushing the line against the run, covering the slot against Welker and helping covering the non-double-teamed receiver.

how well the Colts secondary protect against Moss's height and hands (sorry but their corners are not elite) and Stalworths burst and tackle breaking YAC.

how well Clark is covered - suspect there will be multiple revolving assigments here involving Rodney, AD, Sanders and Gay

How well the Patriots secondary protect against Wayne's speed and agility (used to be Harrison but he is still injured and not playing like he used to when active). This is the one I worry about most as Clark can be covered, while Wayne is elite (well not quite up to Moss).

how well TB avoids the foolish pass (I know it hasnt happened often this season, but he is not perfect and every so often coughs one up - I would rather he did so against the Skins or the Bills than against the Colts).

And finally how well the Patriots can pressure Manning, either into rushing or moving out of the pocket. Under certain pressure PM gets happy feet and when he does the interceptions start racking up.


Those are the keys in my mind. On a level playing field, the Pats have quite the edge. In the dome it will be closer, though the advantage stays with the Pats.



One item off topic which I found on the indy board http://www2.indystar.com/forums/showthread.php?t=211554

At least one Colts fan understands about spygate (Shifty at the bottom of the first page). Shifty gave a really good response to some fans wanting to print plackards with asterisks on them.....I particularly liked the line

Pats were accused of stealing signs with video equiptment. This evolved into charges of "cheating", with suggestions that all of their accomplishments were tainted. The fact of the matter is..... and this appears to be the area that some fans have trouble grasping the truth and putting all this into perspective.....many, if not all, teams attempt to steal signs, though not all might choose video to do it.

Sorry to add this anecdote to this thread, but I really didn't want to start a new thread on spygate.

 

[Robdude]

Front 7 depth does help, but the Colts struggle most often when a team can effectively pressure Manning with ONLY their front 4. See, Jax teams, historically, and most recently the 1st half of the Carolina game. Seymour and Colvin are the only guys I think can put pressure on Manning from your primary pass rushers. Without the addition of extra blitzers.

First of all, a good discussion. Nice to see some intelligent point and counter point instead of name calling.

With that said I think some of what is missing is that the Pats be is incredibly diversified. Maybe Colvin and Seymour are the best pass rushers (maybe) but the Colts may never know which four are coming. Vrabel can definitely rush the passer also along with AD.

Also, when covering Clarke the Pats have many many people that will work at this at different times. I think the question is not who will do it but can the Colts recognize who has the job on any giving play. Looking at this as "who" will cover Clark is a very different question from "How" with they cover Clark. I think you are also underestimating Randal Gay he is a solid CB (imo)