Kerry Byrne: Bill Belichick has lost his mojo

[dtbrks]

Yeah.. this is the same coach who was praised left and right for having an 11-5 team last year with a QB who hadn't played since high school.

It all disappeared in less than a year.

 

[BSR]

One can quibble with the stats or finer points of logic in the article but its premise is absolutely valid: The Patriot's pass D has been trending the wrong way over these past 5 years and is responsible for many of the big losses we have had over that time. The primary reason for that has been not having the right players but scheme and coaching also plays into it. It doesn't seem as if the team has been as good at halftime adjustments as they used to be. Now this year there seems to be an improvement in defensive talent, especially in the secondary, but they still seem to be slow to adjust when they are presented with something new (Like McDaniels running the "wild horses" simply to have the defense audible into a base defense or last year with the wildcat in the miami game). People used to say that a Belichick defense was confusing and dificult to play against because the QB had a hard time identifying where the rush was coming from, but I haven't heard that in a long time.

 

[tedy hagler]

Re: Kerry Byrne:Bill Belichick has lost his mojo

I know 2007 has some good spots, as does this team. But here is one for 2009: teams have a 41.38% success rate on 3rd down against our defense, which places us on the lower tier sofa with the Rams, Chiefs, Bills, Tampa and Steelers, (and oddly, the Colts).

No one stat rules but I think we all agree this needs to get better. I expect it will as the young D plays together over the season.

The 2007 numbers are probably a bit askew due to the big leads the Pats often had, they forced teams to plan to throw and thus they likely threw a little better. the offense blew the last SB for the most part. one more field goal in that game and this article is irrelevant, no?

The Pats were second in sacks in 2007, fourth in points allowed, fourth in yds/play allowed, 6th in passing yds/game allowed, 11th in opposing QB rating - clearly a disaster!

2006 featured the leagues 2nd best opposing QB rating at 66.1. Only the vaunted Ravens were better at 63.4. the Pats wre 2nd in points are allowed to that same Ravens D. Clearly another disaster of a year on D.

Sorry, I can't go on with more stats...

However, the author is on to something about BB drafting DB's and pass rushers, as in - BB hasn't drafted ANY of note in years. In fact, he hasn't signed any of note in years either. Meriweather is looking good but it's his 3rd year and he still runs past too many tackles. Um, unless I'm mistaken, that's it in the Pats' DB and pass rushing acquisitions for bona fide success stories , let alone stardom. Sanders? Eh, barely more than JAG. Wilhite? May be not bad but he is far from consistent and certainly not a star. Pass rushers? Zero. You're not going to say Woods, are you? he's invisible, and ironically that's probably why he's still on the team. AD flashes but also completely disappears at times. It's not like killer OLB's or DE's are a dime a dozen but it's been years since we bought or developed one.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Kerry Byrne | Patriots Failing the Passing Test: Secondary a Primary Concern

Articles like this are a result of the "fantasy football", studio chimp intelligence status of football analysis. Here are the relavent points:

The defense has given up: 17/16/10/14/17 points against 4 of 5 winning teams. By normal definition of pro football, that is excellent. If our offense was operating at normal or relative efficiency, the Pats would be 5-0 with an average margin of victory at a minimum of 20 points.

The Patriots have played 4 winning teams. Where would the defense be if they played the dregs of the NFL like the two goobers?

The Ravens/Broncos/Falcons are a lil different than the Bucs/Chiefs/Raiders.

This boards has clowning over itself with 98 yard drive "analysis". Where is the recognition that they stopped the last drive at the end of the game? It going to be a total shock to some but.. yes defenses will give up some points.

"cold hard football facts" show the vast minority of games are shutouts.

The previous week, BB was a genius for "bracketing" Mason. Just ask Cincy if it was brilliant? Now he sucks because the defense gave up 17 points?

Stop wasting time on these types of articles and devote more effort to why it wasn't expected that the first half would be tough since Brady would be working his way back to form.

 

[RobertWeathers]

His article is about as logical as saying that BB hasn't won a SB since he got divorced. Yes, he has some good points but it's not like the guy has been Mike Shananhan circa 2008..........C'mon...

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

His article is about as logical as saying that BB hasn't won a SB since he got divorced. Yes, he has some good points but it's not like the guy has been Mike Shananhan circa 2008..........C'mon...

It's absolutely amazing that ackbass thinking like this can dupe so many people.

I love the 3rs down crap.

If my oppponent starts 11 drives on their 20 and he gets 1 first down(on third down) before punting; my defense has a 50% efficency. By "cold hard football facts" that's a disaster.


People need to realize that the little stat known as POINTS matter. 3rd down conversion ONLY matters if you are giving up excessive amounts of points.

Perhaps BB needs to start preaching situational football in umbdass.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Kerry's just another guy trying to earn a football related living sitting behind a keyboard. Everyone here loved him when he focused on how much better Tom was than Peyton... He's a patsfan and that has long been used against him in the court of NFL opinion. So this is an attempt to appeal to the broader audience and prove he's an impartial statistical analyst. Sad thing is all it really proves is he's a sadly typical patsfan driven to vent over this teams lack of consistent domination... I mean there is a still chance we will have only played in slightly less than half the superbowls adjudicated in this decade and only won a third of them. What's up with that?!?!

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Kerry's just another guy trying to earn a football related living sitting behind a keyboard. Everyone here loved him when he focused on how much better Tom was than Peyton... He's a patsfan and that has long been used against him in the court of NFL opinion. So this is an attempt to appeal to the broader audience and prove he's an impartial statistical analyst. Sad thing is all it really proves is he's a sadly typical patsfan driven to vent over this teams lack of consistent domination... I mean there is a still chance we will have only played in slightly less than half the superbowls adjudicated in this decade and only won a third of them. What's up with that?!?!

Mo

"Spawn of the Dumb Girls"?

 

[BSR]

It's absolutely amazing that ackbass thinking like this can dupe so many people.

I love the 3rs down crap.

If my oppponent starts 11 drives on their 20 and he gets 1 first down(on third down) before punting; my defense has a 50% efficency. By "cold hard football facts" that's a disaster.


People need to realize that the little stat known as POINTS matter. 3rd down conversion ONLY matters if you are giving up excessive amounts of points.

Perhaps BB needs to start preaching situational football in umbdass.

I'm pretty sure I've heard BB preach quite a few times about how important it is to get off the field on 3rd down. Third down defense is pretty closely linked to the quality of a defense points wise.

If you want to talk about situational football, you have to see that this defense has been allowing some long drives at inopportune times. Additionally, don't discount the fact that the offense has been good enough to eat up some serious clock time which is limiting the number of opportunities that the opposition has to score and helping the defense out significantly. This defense has only had to face 47 drives against it. That is the lowest number of drives against anyteam that hasn't had a bye. Part of the reason that they are letting up less points is because there have been less opportunities for teams to score against them.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mo

"Spawn of the Dumb Girls"?

It is what it is...

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

I'm pretty sure I've heard BB preach quite a few times about how important it is to get off the field on 3rd down. Third down defense is pretty closely linked to the quality of a defense points wise.

If you want to talk about situational football, you have to see that this defense has been allowing some long drives at inopportune times. Additionally, don't discount the fact that the offense has been good enough to eat up some serious clock time which is limiting the number of opportunities that the opposition has to score and helping the defense out significantly. This defense has only had to face 47 drives against it. That is the lowest number of drives against anyteam that hasn't had a bye. Part of the reason that they are letting up less points is because there have been less opportunities for teams to score against them.

Is it important to get off the field on third down?

Well yeah, because if you don't the drive can only end with a score or turnover. I still haven't observed teams punting on 2nd down.

Long drives at inopportune times

Isn't the opposition scoring always inopportune?
Was the stop at the end of the game (after the fumble) opportune?
What is your objective value of points needed for your subjective evaluation of a defense being "good" or "bad"?
Is a 98 yard drive that ends in a TD situationally worse than a 60 yard drive that ends in a TD?

Only the defense can affect the number of points scored against it. They are equally important in determining how long the offense can keep the ball.

 

[BSR]

Is it important to get off the field on third down?

Well yeah, because if you don't the drive can only end with a score or turnover. I still haven't observed teams punting on 2nd down.

Hence the importance of 3rd down conversion rate as a stat.

Long drives at inopportune times

Isn't the opposition scoring always inopportune?
Was the stop at the end of the game (after the fumble) opportune?
What is your objective value of points needed for your subjective evaluation of a defense being "good" or "bad"?

How about less points then your offense scores?

Is a 98 yard drive that ends in a TD situationally worse than a 60 yard drive that ends in a TD?

If it is a systematic type of drive yes it is worse. Your defense is on the field longer so it wears them down. It eats up clock that prevents your offense from being on the field. It also is indicative of a defense that is struggling for whatever reason. Letting up long drives for TDs is a trait indicitve of bad defenses. The more field you have to cover the harder it is to score.

Only the defense can affect the number of points scored against it. They are equally important in determining how long the offense can keep the ball.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. The offense can certainly affect how many points are scroed against the defense. If brady fumbles at the 2 the other team recovers, has he affected the likelyhood of the defense to let up points? Of course he has. Conversly, if the offense is constantly changing field position by moving the ball at least a bit every drive and having the opposition starting within their 20 every drive then he is also affecting the defense.

As for the second half of your statment, I agree. When the defense lets up long drives it also contributes to the low number of drives.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

There are so many things wrong with that 'reasoning' that I don't even know where to start. Instead, I think I'll just put you on ignore- the act is wearing thin.

Okay then, you keep saying that yet keep responding to my posts. Have fun thinking BB is "god".

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Hence the importance of 3rd down conversion rate as a stat.




How about less points then your offense scores?



If it is a systematic type of drive yes it is worse. Your defense is on the field longer so it wears them down. It eats up clock that prevents your offense from being on the field. It also is indicative of a defense that is struggling for whatever reason. Letting up long drives for TDs is a trait indicitve of bad defenses. The more field you have to cover the harder it is to score.



I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. The offense can certainly affect how many points are scroed against the defense. If brady fumbles at the 2 the other team recovers, has he affected the likelyhood of the defense to let up points? Of course he has. Conversly, if the offense is constantly changing field position by moving the ball at least a bit every drive and having the opposition starting within their 20 every drive then he is also affecting the defense.

As for the second half of your statment, I agree. When the defense lets up long drives it also contributes to the low number of drives.

OK Sparky, let's try this again.

Football games are won by scoring more points than the opponent. Likewise, you win if you give up fewer points than the opponent. "Good" and "bad" are subjective terms that develop objective status when compared to measureable, RELAVENT statistics.

A defense that gives up 17/16/10/14/17 points againt elite offenses by is doing fine. How exactly do we know this? Well, Sport, we can compare to league averages and how those teams performed against other opponents.

In your world, the team that wins 49-48 has a "better" defense than the team that loses 3-2.

Anyone notice Atlanta put up 45 points on a "formidable" 49er defense?

3rd down conversion may or may not be a symptom. The relavent question is a symptom of what? Again, if my opponent starts at their 20 gets a first down on 3rd and one then goes out the next drive, I have a 50% 3rd down efficiency and zero points scored.

Somehow you think 50% conversion is more important than zero points.

The 98 yard drive took 6.5 minutes. By definition, timewise it's not a "time consuming" drive. Therefore, your analysis means zip. Why did they stop them on the last drive? The Dolphins scored on a 38 yard nine minute drive, what's worse?

Time of possession is indicative of the offense and the defense. A team can only dominate TOP if the offense sustains drive AND the defense gets off the field. Furthermore, both NEED to end in scored and prevented points.

Because, well, you need to score points and ONLY points to win.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: Kerry Byrne:Bill Belichick has lost his mojo

I know 2007 has some good spots, as does this team. But here is one for 2009: teams have a 41.38% success rate on 3rd down against our defense, which places us on the lower tier sofa with the Rams, Chiefs, Bills, Tampa and Steelers, (and oddly, the Colts).

No one stat rules but I think we all agree this needs to get better. I expect it will as the young D plays together over the season.

Bingo. When I said that there are plenty of good stats that are major red flags for our D, 3rd down success rate was the #1 stat that I was thinking about. You can't win a SB with teams converting that many third downs against you. That's how teams put together 90+ yard drives that kill entire quarters and wear out your D.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Re: Kerry Byrne:Bill Belichick has lost his mojo

When is the last time that you could say the Patriots really frustrated a good QB? It's been years. Orton has his way pretty much all game and the 4th quarter collapses a extremely disturbing. In the Superbowl years, you could count on a big 4th Q stop. Now? It's the opposite. I have to say, I am at a loss to see why Belichick insists on drafting 5'9" defensive backs.

I was really optimistic after the Ravens game. I though the defense was aggressive all game both in the pass rush and in the coverage. I actually thought that at times the coverage was pretty tight against Denver, but Orton had plenty of time to throw and with time he was accurate all day.

Dude, can you be even more divorced from reality?

In Super Bowl 36, the Pats were up 17-3 and the defense gave up 2 late touchdown drives. This included the last drive the Rams had.

In Super Bowl 38, the defense gave up 29 points which included a late game tying touchdown.

In the fourth quarter, the defense gave up a touchdown with 5 minutes remaining. You have to be a clown to classify this as a "collapse". Again, what about the game ending in regulation stop after the fumble?

Are you even aware that defenses tend to tire at the 50 play mark which tends toward more scoring?

 

[BradyFTW!]

In your world, the team that wins 49-48 has a "better" defense than the team that loses 3-2.

lol, what? I think you need to actually read up on what these stats mean before you criticize BSR's support of them- it's obvious from about a mile away that you have no idea what he's talking about- you guys are just talking on different levels, and you're clearly missing the point.

To answer your question, a team that surrenders 48 points almost certainly has a few things going against it. One of which is that it probably wasn't forcing any punts, so it was clearly allowing an absurd third down conversion rate.

As for the team that loses 2-3, it clearly wasn't having any long drives put up on it, so its third down conversion % would be excellent. In trying to make whatever deluded point you were aiming at, you just supported BSR's. Good job.

More tellingly, though, there are a ton of factors that go into points surrendered: including offensive turnovers, TDs surrendered by the offense and special teams, offensive drive distance, and offensive time of possession. The defense has absolutely no control over any of these, so using a stat that relies so heavily on them to evaluate the defense just doesn't make much sense. Was it the defense's fault that Terrell Suggs strip-sacked Brady and it got recovered for a Baltimore TD? Or that Aaron Schobel returned a Brady INT for a TD?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Re: Kerry Byrne:Bill Belichick has lost his mojo

Bingo. When I said that there are plenty of good stats that are major red flags for our D, 3rd down success rate was the #1 stat that I was thinking about. You can't win a SB with teams converting that many third downs against you. That's how teams put together 90+ yard drives that kill entire quarters and wear out your D.

Except....

In the three wins, 3rd conversion by the opponents re 15-33 or 45%.

In the two losses, 3rd down conversions are 9-25 or 36%.

The worst third down conversion for the season was against the Ravens, 9-14 or 64.3%. Remember that game? The game where the defense got rave reviews.

I think it's time to get Einstein out here to evaluate these "red flags".

 

[PATSNUTme]

I've lived a happy life not knowing who Kerry Bryne was. Now I know and I don't care what he says.

 

[Patspsycho]

It is what it is...

They are who we thought they were!