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Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by IcyPatriot, Nov 3, 2008.

  1. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Last edited: Nov 3, 2008
  2. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Rookie

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    Interesting on geographical breakdowns. the heartland versus the coasts and major cities. I know the reasons but it always fascinates me.
  3. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Yeah ... but it appears to be changing as the country demographics are changing. the heartland is no longer just 4th, 5th, 6th generation Americans as it once was. The 1st and 2nd generation Americans are spreading around the country ... 2012 will be even more interesting. if the gop doesn't change it will be a slaughter next time.
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2008
  4. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Rasmussen has the battleground states getting very tight. No-one really knows but an Obama blowout is unlikely, just as a McCain win is.
  5. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    I though mcCain had a slim chance until I got this link from the hotair site. Karl Rove knows his stuff ... I'll believe this over all the others.
  6. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    Depends if you mean electorally or in the popular vote. And I suppose it also depends how you define "blowout". I don't expect a historic landslide, but Obama should win.. we'll say "convincingly". And why just look at one pollster when there are so many out there? Look at all of 'em.
  7. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    Not sure about that, it's easy for the Dems to run this year on "Change (to what)" but if they have total control for four years and things don't get a lot better it will be tougher going next time.
  8. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Rasmussen is a respected pollster. Sure he's just one - but Rove is just one guy also. State polls tend to be behind national polls and a lot of polls are adjusting for a big young vote which is looking questionable right now.
  9. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    Perhaps ... whomever can garner the Latin-American vote will stay in the lead for a while ... their demographics are growing in leaps and bounds. Right now they lean democrat ... if it stays that way who will the gop go after to rebuild their base ... women perhaps and that's about it.
  10. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    Oh, I'm not doubting Rasmussen at all. He's one of the absolute best and most accurate (Nate Silver rated him as the 3rd best this cycle: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: pollster ratings), I'm just saying it's always wise to look at as many polls as possible - good ones anyways.
  11. Michael

    Michael Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

  12. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    The GOP has changed, which is why it's getting slaughtered now.
  13. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    Amen. The GOP is supposed to be the party of small government, but of the past four Presidents it was only the Democrat who managed a budget surplus.

    In order to improve their political fortunes, the GOP needs to go back to their small government roots, which means staying out of people's privacy and avoiding the massive spending sprees of George Bush.

    People may be realizing that "Tax and Spend" is better than "Don't Tax but Spend Anyway".
  14. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Wow, you are totally naive. What surplus? There was never any. The government hasn't been in the black since the 1950's. It's been deficit after deficit, year after year. Authur Anderson does the feds accounting. The alleged "surplus" was some creative math that took excess Social Security tax reciepts, and added them to the asset side of the federal balance sheet. Of course, those excess SS tax revenues were taken in the form of an IOU, or legally, a treasury note. That cash has to be paid back, with interest, when SS starts coming a'callin in about 2018, when it starts taking in, less than it's paying out.
  15. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I actually think McCain will win. I would base this in the polling models used. I also look at the primaries BO always underperformed his polls. IBD was the most accurate nationally last time and Mason Dixon was the most accurate at the state level. If you look at MD in the battle ground states BO is under 50% in all these states.

    IMO the effect of Palin on the conservative base has been underestimated (the conservatives sat out the 2006 election).


    In no election in the past 30 years has the difference in party id been >4%, the polling models have this difference in the 7-15% area, there is no historical justification for this.

    We will see in the next day.
  16. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    Obama wins pretty handily. We are screwed.

    The bright side is I will now be considered "upper class", so I can toss that title around at parties and such. :rolleyes:
  17. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    LOL - I don't fit Obama's definition but if he says he's only raising taxes on the rich I bet I'll end up being "rich" before all is said and done.
  18. Wildo7

    Wildo7 Totally Full of It

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    It wasn't Arthur Anderson or the Fed that projected a budget surplus, it was the Republican CBO, and if you substitute "surplus" with "projected surplus" in his post, it's entirely accurate.
  19. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    Well, if the Dow is any indication, there is a whole sh!tload less "rich" people (old definition) then there was a few months ago.

    Unless he figures out a way to give those people all that money they lost so he can tax that sh!t out of them, he'll have no choice but to "redefine" rich........ and tax the sh!t out of it.

    I live pretty modestly, work hard, am able to pay my own bill and then have perhaps a few extra to goof around with. Not much, but some. I'm the new rich, well into Gov. Richardson "slipped" new definition.

    On the other hand, I now don't object to a capital gains increase. Hell, go ahead and put it at 50%. Do you honestly think anyone is gonna be making and "capital gains" in the near future. KEEP DREAMING.
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2008
  20. Born_a_Patriot

    Born_a_Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Did you post this at the Hannity forums? If not someone is stealing your material.
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