June Pre Training Camp Predictions - Pick Your Suprise & Disappointment

[Christiancat]

As long as one isn't Tebow. Sorry, couldnt resist.

Actually I expect 3 and would be surprised if its only 2.

Looking at the roster each year it shows that Bill doesn't keep 3 QBs every year, but he has certain years. I feel in general Bill values a roster spot more for depth in other areas rather than having ANY 3QBS on the final roster. With that said I hope Tebow gets another chance down the line as a QB or some position in the NFL.

 

[Miguel]

If we keep Arrington this year we pay him another 2 mill on top of that 5.875, so total cap cost from 2014 forward is at least 7.875 mill.

The 5.875m already includes his guaranteed salary of 1 million. So if we keep Arrington the total cap cost forward is at least 6.875 mill

If we cut Arrington this year, total cap cost from 2014 forward will be 5.875.

We actually accelerate 1 mill of the future cap hits into this year while saving 1 mill in 2014.
That is why the savings a 1 mill and not 2mill by cutting a player with a 2 mill salary.

This is incorrect. There is no acceleration of future cap hits. The 1 million savings instead of two is because of the 2014 guaranteed salary.

So, if kept in 2014, the sunk money remaining is 4.125 mill.
If cut in 2014 the sunk money remaining is 3.125 mill.

After this year the remaining guaranteed money is $3.25million (two 1.625 million prorations of his signing bonus.

Whether you are talking about today, tomorrow, or forever, the Patriots save money on the cap by cutting Kyle Arrington.

This part is correct.

 

[Danger Zone]

...With that said I hope Tebow gets another chance down the line as a QB or some position in the NFL.

Thats the difference between a genuingly good person and a could be much more good person.

90% of you wanted Tebow to be successful because he's also a good person.

90% of me wanted Tebow to be successful (here) because it would have driven Jets fans literally crazy(er).

 

[supafly]

Okay, thanks to Miguel and AJ for breaking down the Arrington situation. The information was quite useful.

 

[Peachhead]

I hate to say it. I really hope I'm wrong, but...

I'm concerned Jamie Collins will be this year's disappointment. It's happened before. We have a rook that shows a lot of promise his first year (McCourty at CB, Darius Butler, to some extent L. Mauroney, etc.) then falls off the map in yr 2. Thankfully McCourty turned into a fine FS.

For happy surprises, I'm gonna say Josh Boyce. I think once (knock on wood) he gets on the same page as Brady he's gonna be a helluva slot WR.

Also Bryan Stork. Although it won't be a huge surprise when someone beats out Wendell. It's not like predicting someone unseating a probowler. But I think by wk 2 or 3 of the regular season Stork's gonna be the starter for the next 8-10 yrs.

 

[Deus Irae]

This part is correct.

Cutting Arrington results in a bigger cap charge than he will cost this year. That's the general definition of a negative cap hit. What's changed is that it's got the benefit of being post-June 1st, so that cap hit is spread over 2 seasons, which changes the normally negative hit into two smaller hits, thereby avoiding a negative impact in 2014, at the expense of lost 2015 cap space.

Had he been cut on May 31st, the Patriots' 2014 cap space would have been smaller, not larger.

 

[Ivan]

If Armestead is IR bound I think the Pats will simply cut him. See Glass IR Dowling's window of opportunity.
53.

I agree, I think the hourglass is running out on Armstead. It's a shame because he has some talent but you have to get on the field and he simply hasn't been able to do that. And as much as I hate to think it Dobson coulde be a big disappointment come camp because foot issues are tricky and if he starts missing time it could snowball.

For my surprise I am going with Amendola, who is going to show everyone just how much he can bring to this team.

 

[Ivan]

I hate to say it. I really hope I'm wrong, but...

I'm concerned Jamie Collins will be this year's disappointment. It's happened before.

Collins won an award a couple of weeks ago for his work this offseason, I think he's going to be a beast.

 

[Ivan]

It would be so good if a bunch of these young guys ended up turning into really good players, if guys like Buchanon, Armstead, Boyce, Dobson, and Ryan all were hits it would really put them in great shape. Wishful thinking i know but it could happen, may not be those exact players but there are a whole bunch of players with question marks heading into camp and the Patriots need to hit on many of them to be a real contender for the Super bowl.

 

[Ivan]

Also Bryan Stork. Although it won't be a huge surprise when someone beats out Wendell. It's not like predicting someone unseating a probowler. But I think by wk 2 or 3 of the regular season Stork's gonna be the starter for the next 8-10 yrs.

Sweet Jesus i hope you are right, that would be huge for them.

 

[Ring 6]

Looking at the roster each year it shows that Bill doesn't keep 3 QBs every year, but he has certain years. I feel in general Bill values a roster spot more for depth in other areas rather than having ANY 3QBS on the final roster. With that said I hope Tebow gets another chance down the line as a QB or some position in the NFL.

I agree that 3 is not typical but given the roster 3 seems expected this year.

 

[Ring 6]

The 5.875m already includes his guaranteed salary of 1 million. So if we keep Arrington the total cap cost forward is at least 6.875 mill

If we cut Arrington this year, total cap cost from 2014 forward will be 5.875.


This is incorrect. There is no acceleration of future cap hits. The 1 million savings instead of two is because of the 2014 guaranteed salary.



After this year the remaining guaranteed money is $3.25million (two 1.625 million prorations of his signing bonus.



This part is correct.

I was wrong in thinking 1 mill was accelerated but it is actually a bonus.

 

[Brady6]

I agree, I think the hourglass is running out on Armstead. It's a shame because he has some talent but you have to get on the field and he simply hasn't been able to do that.

I see it as highly unlikely that they will cut Armond Armstead this year if he is not ready to play, they will place him PUP and hope for a midseason return or move him to IR from there. His salary is $420K of which $250K is guaranteed, so they would save just $170K cutting Armstead. Armstead will turn 24 on 8/3 so he is still very young, and he is on the books for just $500K in 2015. I think you hold him, there is nothing really to gain from cutting him

 

[Brady6]

I agree that 3 is not typical but given the roster 3 seems expected this year.

I agree, I think it is much like 2011 when Mallett was a rookie and they had Hoyer in front of him. I think they trust Mallett to run the team if Brady god forbid went down, I am not sure they have that trust in Garopollo just yet.

 

[Brady6]

Also Bryan Stork. Although it won't be a huge surprise when someone beats out Wendell. It's not like predicting someone unseating a probowler. But I think by wk 2 or 3 of the regular season Stork's gonna be the starter for the next 8-10 yrs.

Word out of OTA was that Stork was looking a lot like a rookie.

Stork reminds me a little bit of Bequette, great college player, leader, team captain, and all around team player. I hope that his career is not the same as Bequette’s has been to this point.

 

[Brady6]

Looking at the roster each year it shows that Bill doesn't keep 3 QBs every year, but he has certain years. I feel in general Bill values a roster spot more for depth in other areas rather than having ANY 3QBS on the final roster. With that said I hope Tebow gets another chance down the line as a QB or some position in the NFL.

Hindsight 20/20, it may have made sense to keep Tebow last season, we finished the year with some bottom of the roster players that were practice squad extensions. Tebow could have made a position change to an H-back or maybe developed as a QB enough to make them comfortable with him backing up Brady and therefore allowing them to put off drafting a QB for another year or two.

 

[mcmurtry86]

I see it as highly unlikely that they will cut Armond Armstead this year if he is not ready to play, they will place him PUP and hope for a midseason return or move him to IR from there. His salary is $420K of which $250K is guaranteed, so they would save just $170K cutting Armstead. Armstead will turn 24 on 8/3 so he is still very young, and he is on the books for just $500K in 2015. I think you hold him, there is nothing really to gain from cutting him

Just to be clear - you think that if he lands on PUP they would bring him back midseason? A guy who - at that point - will have not have practiced competitive (i.e. in pads) football in 2 years and who has never played an exhibition snap with the team? A guy who will have played 1 year of football in the past 3.5?

If he doesn't play this summer, he's not going to play this year for the team. He's going to be incredibly rusty, raw and - having never practiced with the team in pads - probably a total waste of a roster spot.

 

[mcmurtry86]

Hindsight 20/20, it may have made sense to keep Tebow last season, we finished the year with some bottom of the roster players that were practice squad extensions. Tebow could have made a position change to an H-back or maybe developed as a QB enough to make them comfortable with him backing up Brady and therefore allowing them to put off drafting a QB for another year or two.

Given the sheer number of guys the Pats had to use because of all of their injuries, there was no room to carry a guy who was totally useless (Tebow). They used each and every roster spot last year and there were some weeks when they could barely scrape together a full active roster.

 

[Brady6]

Given the sheer number of guys the Pats had to use because of all of their injuries, there was no room to carry a guy who was totally useless (Tebow). They used each and every roster spot last year and there were some weeks when they could barely scrape together a full active roster.

They carried Barker, Bequette, and Beauharnais all year and they did next to nothing.

 

[Brady6]

Just to be clear - you think that if he lands on PUP they would bring him back midseason? A guy who - at that point - will have not have practiced competitive (i.e. in pads) football in 2 years and who has never played an exhibition snap with the team? A guy who will have played 1 year of football in the past 3.5?

If he doesn't play this summer, he's not going to play this year for the team. He's going to be incredibly rusty, raw and - having never practiced with the team in pads - probably a total waste of a roster spot.

You can practice for several weeks before the team determines if they want you to come off PUP. I do not think he is going to start but if he is able to play health wise, I am sure they could run him out there and see what he can do at least in mop up duty. Either way though my point was there is not a reason to cut Armstead given his contract standing.